Drones, the Air Littoral, and the Looming Irrelevance of the USAF

[Kirkhill]

The need for "drones"

How many drones does the Army need? A lot more.

The experience of two brigades suggests that the number is far larger than it’s buying—and that’s just for training.

www.defenseone.com

And EW driving the movement towards more autonomy. Loss of comms? Follow the last order issued and CM.

New AI-powered strike drone shows how quickly battlefield autonomy is evolving

First-person drone piloting is yesterday’s news. Drones are becoming smarter as the electronic environment around them makes operator communication more difficult.

www.defenseone.com

 

[Kirkhill]

We debate the merits and ethics of autonomy. I have always suspected that the debate will be resolved by the "losing" side - the side that will be most strongly motivated to "do something" to tilt the balance back in their favour.

US Army rushes to boost defenses as Russia ups strike-drone autonomy

From the Red Sea to the Pacific, the drone and counter-drone game is accelerating.

www.defenseone.com

Russia is giving its armed drones more autonomy as Ukraine’s defenses tighten, a dynamic that has the U.S. Army working harder to bulk up its own anti-drone and -missile systems, service and industry officials said.

Defense One caught up with Sgt. Maj. Kellen Rowley, the top enlisted leader of the 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command, at the AUSA conference in Washington, D.C. We asked him whether Russia is increasingly relying on autonomy software for drone attacks in order to thwart defensive measures that target the connection between the weapons and their operators.

“They are,” Rowley said. “They are becoming more adaptive. We saw them struggle quite a bit with dynamic targeting. As time has gone on, they’ve adapted.”

He declined to comment further.

An official from Epirus, which makes advanced counter-drone defenses, said greater autonomy was a growing trend in Russian drone attacks on Ukraine.

“There is clear evidence that full drone autonomy and swarming technology will become more pervasive in this new era of asymmetric warfare. One significant advancement in drone tech we’ve been closely tracking is the use of fiber-optic-guided and AI-enabled UAS that are immune to jamming and other EW countermeasures. Without a connection to jam or spoof, AI-enabled drones have seen success in Ukraine,” the official told Defense One.

It's complicated....

But counter-drone defenses are more complicated than roboticized attack drones for reasons beyond autonomy and technology, such as the increasing bureaucratic burdens of trying to work with more partners.

Said Rowley of the 10th AMDC, “I think probably our single biggest challenge is operating inside of NATO. There are 32 member nations in NATO, and our adversaries are exporting gaps to NATO policy. Group one, group one, UAS are able to operate below the threshold, and it's a challenging bit for us, under peacetime conditions and authorities for soldiers to recognize when they should or can engage..

 

[Kirkhill]

Army picking 2 cargo drones to pair with autonomous boats for Project Convergence 2025 - Breaking Defense

“We're going to have to figure out how to resupply dispersed formations,” Brig. Gen. Shane Upton, the director for the Contested Logistics Cross Functional Team, told Breaking Defense on Tuesday.

breakingdefense.com

24 companies came back with options that ranged from flying prototypes to more developmental ideas. Based on that feedback, the Army has now picked two drones to participate in its Project Convergence Capstone 5 event next year, though Upton remained mum on which companies will be flying since they still haven’t been notified.

He did, however, disclose that those heavy-lift drones can ferry roughly 1000 pounds up to 300-400 nautical miles.

The plan now, in part, is to use those two different drones along with autonomous boats, to look at logistics options inside the Pacific theater and other parts of the world.

The Army plans to use Project Convergence takeaways on the state of aerial cargo drone tech and weigh that against options like integrating an autonomy stack on CH-47 Chinooks, an option Upton said is “easier said than done.” Price points for both avenues will also be a focal point.

“Some of these autonomous aircraft we’re talking about are a lot cheaper per capita than a Chinook,” Upton said. “If we’re going to do logistics over the shore, you have got to be able to scale it.”

“The money they do give us is a lot of money, but you [have] got to be able to buy things and still scale to the requirement you need. We need smaller, movable boats. We need these drones to be able to move that cargo, and you’re not going to be able to spend $50 million, $60 million or $70 million per drone to do this,” he added.

 

[Kirkhill]

The Army’s 'most challenging' unmanned threat? Group 3 drones - Breaking Defense

Mid-size, Group 3 drones occupy something of an uncomfortable middle ground between small drones that can be destroyed by self-protection missions and larger drones that are better handled by traditional air defense systems, according to Army Maj. Gen. David Stewart.

breakingdefense.com

“Group 3 remains one of the most challenging threats we have in terms of the capabilities and then the payload that you’re talking about, as well as the reach,”

Especially if they get cheaper and faster and reach farther.

Swapping out Wankel and Rotax motors for single use jets and rockets puts you on the trajectory that created the Ukrainian Paliantsiya drone

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/urkaine-palianytsia-long-range-weapon-1.7305701

Making the problem worse is that defensive interceptors are typically more expensive than the threats they’re destroying. For example, Stewart’s chart displayed key interceptors that can take out Group 3 drones like RTX’s Coyote and Anduril’s Roadrunner. But on a separate panel on Monday, Maj. Gen. Frank Lozano, the Army’s program executive officer for missiles and space, argued that while it was good the Army ramped up orders of systems like Coyote, relying on them for the long term isn’t sustainable.

Highlighting a rough price tag of about $120,000 per Coyote, Lozano said, “We’re not going to win that cost curve battle if all we do is deal with the threat kinetically.”

 

[Kirkhill]

Is it a drone? Is it a satellite?

Army about to formalize 'micro-high altitude balloons' as a new requirement for surveillance ops - Breaking Defense

The new effort for microHABs is being led by the Army's Program Executive Office for Aviation, Andrew Evans, director of the Army's ISR Task Force, told Breaking Defense, which for the moment is the primary acquisition shop overseeing the service's pursuit of systems that can operate at the...

breakingdefense.com

 

[dimsum]

Is it a drone? Is it a satellite?

Army about to formalize 'micro-high altitude balloons' as a new requirement for surveillance ops - Breaking Defense

The new effort for microHABs is being led by the Army's Program Executive Office for Aviation, Andrew Evans, director of the Army's ISR Task Force, told Breaking Defense, which for the moment is the primary acquisition shop overseeing the service's pursuit of systems that can operate at the...

breakingdefense.com

In that case, I’d say neither. It’s a balloon.

Not enough in the article to say for sure, but the MicroHAB doesn’t seem to have any means of propulsion, and “satellite” in this case means actually being in orbit, not in the stratosphere.

 

[Kirkhill]

In that case, I’d say neither. It’s a balloon.

Not enough in the article to say for sure, but the MicroHAB doesn’t seem to have any means of propulsion, and “satellite” in this case means actually being in orbit, not in the stratosphere.

In the world of pseudo-craft perhaps the MicroHab could act as a RRB or ISR node after the fashion of a low earth satellite or high altitude drone?

 

[Kirkhill]

In Pacific, Army brigade tweaks its modernization program for jungle warfare

The unit has over 100 drones, but must balance their use against the tropics' punishing heat.

www.defenseone.com

The lone Pacific brigade chosen for the Army’s new equipment strategy is finding that the new tech has unique advantages for its terrain — as well as challenges, the unit’s commanding general said Friday.

The unit, the 2nd Brigade of the Hawaii-based 25th Infantry Division, is one of just three brigades selected for the Army’s “transforming-in-contact” strategy. The two others are the 101st Airborne Division’s 2nd Brigade and the 10th Mountain Division’s 3rd Brigade.

Under the strategy, units are given a range of new tech and told to figure out how to best use it at their home bases and in challenging field exercises. Most of the new gear focuses on drone, counter-drone, and electronic warfare, drawing in part on lessons from Ukraine.

In an exercise running Oct. 7 to 16 at the Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center, the unit brought as many as 150 small drones, said 25th Infantry Division commander Maj. Gen. Marcus Evans.

Based on advice from the 101st’s 2nd Brigade and their own experience, the 25th’s 2nd Brigade has also increased the number of Starlink satellite terminals it uses, Evans said. The 19-by-12-inch dishes provide far faster transmission speeds than traditional Army satellite systems, while being much more portable and easier to hide.

The brigade is experimenting with three to four terminals that the commander can re-distribute as necessary, as well as two terminals per battalion. Sustainment assets also get Starlink terminals, Evans said.

The terminals are particularly useful for allowing sustainment efforts to disperse, thereby becoming harder to hit.

“They can't all stay together, because they will be targetable,” he said.

Starlink devices are particularly important in the vast distances of the Pacific. One battalion, for example, is deployed 200 miles away from its brigade command, on a different island, Evans said.

The Starlinks allow the brigade to “overcome the tyranny of distance,” he said

 

[dimsum]

In the world of pseudo-craft perhaps the MicroHab could act as a RRB or ISR node after the fashion of a low earth satellite or high altitude drone?

That’s what the US Army hopes, yes.

But without means of propulsion it’ll just drift along with the winds, which may not be where you want it to be.

 

[Kirkhill]

That’s what the US Army hopes, yes.

But without means of propulsion it’ll just drift along with the winds, which may not be where you want it to be.

I can see that but...

Blowing in the breeze at 60,000 to 100,000 feet gives a line of sight horizon of something like 500 km. As long as the balloon can accurately locate itself and describe its position it can be a useful surrogate for GPS. And it is cheap and easy to replace, and hard to knock down.

It seems to me that there is an opportunity to exploit quantity here.

 

[dimsum]

I can see that but...

Blowing in the breeze at 60,000 to 100,000 feet gives a line of sight horizon of something like 500 km. As long as the balloon can accurately locate itself and describe its position it can be a useful surrogate for GPS. And it is cheap and easy to replace, and hard to knock down.

It seems to me that there is an opportunity to exploit quantity here.

Comms relay? Definitely.

ISR? That’s where I start questioning its utility. I guess if they send up hundreds/thousands of them then they can get look-angles wherever they want for EO/IR.

 

[Kirkhill]

USAF pauses NGAD fighter (F35/F22 replacement) while the USN proceeds with their programme.

Navy Will Pick a 6th-Gen Fighter as Air Force Pauses NGAD

The Navy is moving towards awarding a contract for its next-generation, long-range fighter amid uncertainty over the Air Force's NGAD fighter.

www.airandspaceforces.com

This author not impressed with the USAF or its plan

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/10/05/the_ngad_flop_is_not_excusable_1063143.html

Meanwhile the USMC is plugging away with the Valkyrie in real world tests

Valkyrie drone links with F-35s as Marines pursue ‘autonomous collaborative killer’ capability

The Marine Corps’ XQ-58A Valkyrie drone used common tactical data links to share targeting information with F-35 stealth fighters during a recent exercise, according to the service.

defensescoop.com

The Valkyrie sits in the 3 MUSD section of the market, closer to the Tomahawk and other Long Range One Way Attack Munitions than the 30 MUSD envisaged for the USAF's CCA drone.

.....

Real world iteration as opposed to trillion dollar, multi-decade Great Leaps Forwards.

At the Army’s mainstay conference, Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George said the service won’t hesitate to cut programs that don’t support its modernization goals—and will no longer buy programs “for ten years at a time.” The service has canceled programs it invested billions in, like the Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft program, or FARA—an effort once hailed as the service’s No. 1 aviation priority. And FARA’s end might not be the final dramatic program move the Army makes, service officials have warned.

"Even if it was a requirement in the past. Even if it was a program of record, we may have to stop buying it," George said on Tuesday at the AUSA conference.

Bell presses on with FLRAA as Army cools on large programs

Service officials are banking on the future rotorcraft for a new air assault concept.

www.defenseone.com

....

The world is moving too fast to permit the luxury of committing scarce capital to decades of expense.

 

[Kirkhill]

Comms relay? Definitely.

ISR? That’s where I start questioning its utility. I guess if they send up hundreds/thousands of them then they can get look-angles wherever they want for EO/IR.

Seen on the ISR front. It would need some kind of special camera to generate useful data from a 500 km radius picture ( 800,000 km2 or the size of a Canadian province).

 

[Kirkhill]

Kratos Valkyrie on exercise with USMC F35s as an ISR platform.

More to come ...

Marines Deploy 'Loyal Wingman' Drone in Joint Force Test - USNI News

A test Kratos XQ-58A Valkyrie unmanned combat aerial vehicle deployed last week in a first-ever joint force data link integration test during Emerald Flag 2024 last week. The Marine Corps’ “Loyal Wingman” drone provides targeting data to F-35Bs and other aircraft. “The XQ-58A effectively...

news.usni.org

The Marine Corps’ “Loyal Wingman” drone provides targeting data to F-35Bs and other aircraft.

“The XQ-58A effectively demonstrated its capabilities as a forward deployed sensing platform – providing critical threat targeting data to Marine Corps fifth-generation aircraft,”

For the Marine Corps, this year’s iteration of Emerald Flag centered around the Valkyrie as a sensor and its ability to transmit what it saw back to both the service’s F-35B fifth-generation fighters and platforms from other services. Col. Derek Brannon, the branch head for the Cunningham Group within the office of the deputy commandant for aviation, highlighted the integration of Valkyrie with a four-ship of Lightning IIs and other aircraft via tactical data links and digital communication.

Valkyrie’s Link-16 capabilities were previously tested and verified during the drone’s third flight test, which also marked the first time the Pentagon “controlled an air vehicle using offboard expeditionary methods.”

With this latest test, the Kratos drone should only have two more planned tests under the original PAACK-P requirements. The service’s tests aim to examine the viability of the “Loyal Wingman” platform to support the F-35B through autonomous electronic support, AI-enabled assistance to combat air patrols and delivering or supporting long-range fire missions. Kratos demonstrated the platform’s electronic warfare capability in April when one of the drones, in conjunction with two F-35Bs, conducted an electronic attack. The service did not publicly report this test despite it occurring before the third flight test in September.

....

While other companies are proposing designs and factories tomorrow Kratos appears to have supplied a multi-mission, multi-role platform that has already conducted a number of the missions under consideration during exercises -

Mission cost - guesstimate - less than the cost of a single Tomahawk cruise missile

....

Following increased Air Force interest, Navy buys its own Valkyrie drones - Breaking Defense

The Air Force started regularly flying the XQ-58 in November at Eglin.

breakingdefense.com

Kratos Secures $57.6 Million Contract with US Navy for 70 BQM-177A Aerial Targets

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. has secured a substantial $57.6 million contract extension for its Unmanned Systems Division.

insideunmannedsystems.com

 

[Kirkhill]

More on the Autonomy AI at the heart of the US Navy drone programme.

Shield AI Looks To Unleash Its Hivemind Autonomy Software On Multiple Platforms

Branded Content: Mission autonomy stands to unlock capabilities never realized before and Shield AI says its Hivemind software can make it happen.

www.twz.com

Mission autonomy is real – this isn’t theory or PowerPoint. Our technical approach is informed by our experiences with Hivemind, which started out in our small Nova quadcopter drones from 2018. This was years before most people had even heard of mission autonomy. Since then we’ve been scaling up to Group 3 unmanned air vehicles such as V-BAT and we’re doing it seamlessly thanks to how we have developed our Hivemind software stack, which was developed from the outset to be extensible and modular. Our software stack is about perception, cognition, and action. We perceive something, we identify it, then we take action.

Hivemind runs through our V-BAT unmanned system, and it has been proven in projects such as the X-62A VISTA [Variable-stability In-flight Simulator Test Aircraft] where we were in complete control of maneuvering an F-16 fighter and showcasing that we could go head-to-head with crewed fighters in dogfights.

We’ve got several flight tests that we are currently running, including showcasing operations in denied environments. That’s exercising our state estimation algorithms – which is about aggregating data from various sensors to establish where the platform is at in terms of state, so the platform can continue its mission.

We also recently completed live fly testing with two Kratos MQM-178 Firejets and two crewed chase aircraft. That testing was about proving the ability to operate what we call intelligent mass, that means crewed and uncrewed platforms coming together and breaking apart at will. That was a huge accomplishment in a first-of-its-kind test. The team is extraordinarily excited about that because we are developing and maturing our technology and it’s a huge win at the Group 5 unmanned level.

You can read more about this here.

Shield AI's Hivemind Demonstrates Collaborative Autonomy In Firejet Drones Flight Test

Branded Content: Fast, agile drones replicating unmanned wingmen fly together autonomously in key step towards future air combat.

www.twz.com

 

[Kirkhill]

And then there is this:

US Army takes on most effective counter-drone system yet: Red tape - Breaking Defense

An Army official told Breaking Defense that some soldiers are hesitant to fly small drones because of the mandatory paperwork, and potential loss of pay, that comes with losing one.

breakingdefense.com

 

[dimsum]

Lasers, Microwaves, Missiles, Guns Not On The Table For Domestic Drone Defense

Policy hurdles are limiting what capabilities the U.S. military even wants to consider to help provide critical domestic anti-drone defenses.

www.twz.com

Something often missed about the domestic defence piece is that your citizens generally don’t like interceptors being launched (unless you’re Israeli).

 

[Kirkhill]

Lasers, Microwaves, Missiles, Guns Not On The Table For Domestic Drone Defense

Policy hurdles are limiting what capabilities the U.S. military even wants to consider to help provide critical domestic anti-drone defenses.

www.twz.com

Something often missed about the domestic defence piece is that your citizens generally don’t like interceptors being launched (unless you’re Israeli).

I think it is dumb for the military to write itself out of the game in this way.

Leave the non-kinetic to the civil air management. Leave the kinetic in the hands of the military. When the civilians are overwhelmed declare a state of military emergency.

The military should be equipped, trained and capable of plugging the gap. Preferably with local troops.

 

[dimsum]

I think it is dumb for the military to write itself out of the game in this way.

Leave the non-kinetic to the civil air management. Leave the kinetic in the hands of the military. When the civilians are overwhelmed declare a state of military emergency.

The military should be equipped, trained and capable of plugging the gap. Preferably with local troops.

This may be a second/third order effect of Posse Commitatus, where the active duty US military cannot be used in domestic situations except for certain things like NORAD.

 

[Furniture]

Comms relay? Definitely.

ISR? That’s where I start questioning its utility. I guess if they send up hundreds/thousands of them then they can get look-angles wherever they want for EO/IR.

I suspect the "line of sight" they are referring to isn't the visual/IR wavelengths...

Enough balloons at different latitudes might spot an enemy SAG pushing into the Pacific, or an enemy division prepping to cross into Ukraine.