Drones, the Air Littoral, and the Looming Irrelevance of the USAF

[Kirkhill]

Ukraine’s AI Drones Seek And Attack Russian Forces Without Human Oversight

The Ukrainian company Saker has confirmed its drones are carrying out autonomous strikes on Russian forces without a human operator.

www.forbes.com

And apparently the Ukrainians already have form on Autonomous weapons beyond Brimstone and Scalp.

 

[dimsum]

Ukraine’s AI Drones Seek And Attack Russian Forces Without Human Oversight

The Ukrainian company Saker has confirmed its drones are carrying out autonomous strikes on Russian forces without a human operator.

www.forbes.com

And apparently the Ukrainians already have form on Autonomous weapons beyond Brimstone and Scalp.

I, for one, am absolutely not surprised that they would be the lead on stuff like this.

 

[Kirkhill]

I, for one, am absolutely not surprised that they would be the lead on stuff like this.

Day 760 - Mar. 24 - Sevastopol hit again, Russia isn't so used to punch back, Sure all those NATO flight hours are benign

Hi guys! We are in a proper Ukraine vs. Russia slugging match right now. For those of you who have been reading these reviews for a while, this means that the really most important development IMO is the basic fact that the good guys are trading blows with the bad guys on pretty much an equal basis.

open.substack.com

From @KevinB's substack link




As noted in the article - developed in the last 18 months.

 

[Kirkhill]

Here is the Ukrainian Sea Drone evolution

 

[Kirkhill]

Budanov has his own Army, Navy and Air Force.

Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the only field reconnaissance unit of the HUR was a special unit subordinated to the Directorate's 4th Special Intelligence Service (4-та Служба спеціальної розвідки):[citation needed]

• 10th Separate Special Purpose Unit [uk] (10-й окремий загін спеціального призначення, Military Unit А2245), based in Rybalskyi Peninsula, Kyiv
  • 3 operational companies – 1st – 3rd Special Purpose Company (1 – 3 сотня спеціального призначення)

As of 2024, the units subordinate to the HUR include:

Reconnaissance units:

• 49th Reconnaissance Training Center [uk][9]
• 54th Reconnaissance Battalion [uk][10]
• 74th Reconnaissance Battalion [uk][11]
• 120th Reconnaissance Battalion[12]
• 129th Reconnaissance Battalion [uk]
• 130th Reconnaissance Battalion [uk][13]
• 131st Reconnaissance Battalion [uk][14]
• 132nd Reconnaissance Battalion [uk][15]
• 140th Reconnaissance Battalion [uk][16]
• 143rd Reconnaissance Battalion

Special purpose units:

• 10th Special Purpose Unit "Shaman Battalion" [uk][17][18]
• Special Purpose Unit "Kraken"[19]
• Special Purpose Unit "Artan” [uk][20]
• Special Purpose Unit "Timur"[21]
  • "Brotherhood" Battalion [uk][22]
  • "Stuhna" Battalion [uk][23]
  • Volunteer Reconnaissance Battalion "Sonechko"[24][25]
  • "Nobody" Unit[26]
  • "Paragon Company" Unit[27]
• Special Purpose Unit "KABUL 9" [uk][28]
• Special Purpose UAV Unit "Wings" [uk][29]
• Special Purpose USV Unit "Group 13"[30][31]
• International Legion of Defense Intelligence of Ukraine [uk] (part of the International Legion for the Defense of Ukraine)[32]

Legal basis[edit]​

HUR MOU is legally allowed to operate based upon the following laws:[33]

• The Constitution of Ukraine
• Verkhovna Rada Regulation "On National Security Concept of Ukraine (state policy fundamentals)", 1997
• The Law of Ukraine "On Defence of Ukraine", 2000
• The Law of Ukraine "On The Armed Forces of Ukraine", 2000
• The Law of Ukraine "On the Intelligence agencies of Ukraine", 2001
• The Law of Ukraine "Separate legislative acts of Ukraine Amendments in light of the Law of Ukraine", "About the Intelligence agencies of Ukraine" passage
• Presidential Decree "On the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Status"

Main Directorate of Intelligence (Ukraine) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[dimsum]

From @KevinB's substack link

View attachment 83993


As noted in the article - developed in the last 18 months.

To clarify, the TU-143 is Soviet, from the 1970s/1980s. Sort of an equivalent to the Firebee, etc used in Vietnam.

 

[KevinB]

Let’s also accept that the West is helping with the designs and supplies for these as well…

 

[Kirkhill]

To clarify, the TU-143 is Soviet, from the 1970s/1980s. Sort of an equivalent to the Firebee, etc used in Vietnam.

Let’s also accept that the West is helping with the designs and supplies for these as well…

Let's accept that the Ukrainians have taken off the guardrails and are throwing anything and everything that occurs to them at the problem.

They don't care what the manual says. They don't care about OSHA standards or other peoples' economies or politics. They are building in their garages and basements. They are buying from China. They are converting Soviet missiles and planes by grafting modern Western sensors on to existing platforms. They are redirecting their rocket and aerospace engineering capabilities to all sorts of stuff.

We don't get to take credit for their desperation.

 

[KevinB]

No, but we do need to be honest about the outcomes. The Ukrainian effort isn’t about PHit, it’s about delivering a capability. They need that approach due to it’s legitimately do or die for them.

We cannot afford to mobilize the entire population like they are doing. So we need systems with exceptionally higher success rates, and we also cannot afford to have the failures that occur in a lot of the garage shop builds.

I believe there should be a lot better synergies between the Western Militaries and Ukrainian efforts, I also wish we would provide a lot more munitions (inc long range precision fire systems) - or heck have LocMart build a PrSM factory in Western Ukraine and get a two’fer with it — 1) Russia would expend a lot of resources trying to take it out 2) it would give a Ukrainian Precision strike capability deep into Russia

 

[KevinB]

Meet "Liutyi," Ukraine's homegrown drone behind strikes on Russian oil refineries - Euromaidan Press

Ukraine's domestically produced Liutyi unmanned aircraft has been behind precise strikes on Russian oil refineries up to 800km inside Russia.

euromaidanpress.com

 

[Kirkhill]

And USAF swarming efforts - F35s as bomb-trucks and smart autonomous bombs.

https://warriormaven.com/air/pentagon-arms-f-35-with-breakthrough-stormbreaker-attack-bomb

The US Air Force is arming its entire fleet of F-35s with the cutting edge Stormbreaker bomb capable of tracking and destroying moving targets in all kinds of weather conditions from ranges as far as 40-nautical miles.

In development for years, the now operational Stormbreaker arms the F-15E and F/A-18 and is currently testing on all three variants of F-35s. Beginning as the Small Diameter Bomb II, the Stormbreaker has been a pioneering and ground-breaking, air-launched weapon engineered with a “tri-mode” seeker enabling it to track targets with infrared, laser and millimeter wave technology. The weapon is also one of the early iterations of how two-way data links can be engineered into an air dropped weapon to better enable in-flight course correction and an ability to hit moving targets.

A weapon such as the Stormbreaker introduces a handful of new tactical advantages to include the ability to use all-weather millimeter wave sensing to track moving targets in an obscured weather environment such as rain, cloud, sand or fog. This is particularly relevant in scenarios where GPS might be jammed, compromised or rendered ineffective by enemy attacks. The weapon can also be placed in a relevant way along the broader US Air Force trajectory of weapons modernization and innovation.

As a “network”-enabled weapon with a two-way data link similar in some respects to the US Navy’s Block IV Tomahawk cruise missile, the Stormbreaker can receive new or updated targeting specifics while “in-flight” to adjust to changing targets. This kind of breakthrough, which exists on both the Tomahawk and Stormbreaker, can be seen as a critical step along the way to “collaborative” bomb attack technology now emerging with the US Air Force. Through a program known as Golden Horde, the Air Force is making breakthrough progress “networking” bombs to one-another in flight to coordinate attack details, adjust to changing targets and essentially “share” time-sensitive combat information in real time autonomously between two or more bombs. These breakthroughs, which are showing promise in tests with the Air Force Research Laboratory, are also beginning to leverage cutting edge applications of AI able to gather and analyze incoming sensor data at the point of collection, while also networking with a host platform. This kind of “collaborative bombing” could be seen as a new “next” incremental step in network enabled warfare demonstrating the maturation of critical bomb networking technologies built into the Stormbreaker.

F35 Unit Cost - ca 90 MUSD
Stormbreaker Unit Cost - ca 0.25 MUSD
Stormbreakers per F35 (internal - stealth mode) 8
90 + 8x 0.25 = 92 MUSD plus pilot, ground crew and runway.

Valkyrie Unit Cost - ca 4 MUSD
Stormbreakers per Valkyrie - (internal) 2
4x 4 + 8x 0.25 = 18 MUSD plus operator (maybe?), ground crew (minus) and hardstand.

 

[KevinB]

I think you’re ignoring the fact that the F-35 is much more likely to get within range of the targets to release their payload than the Valkyrie.

I’m certainly not dismissing the concept of the Valkyrie, but I view it as an additional item, to the F-15EX, F-16 and F-35.

I’d just as soon have the Valkyrie carry decoys and AMM’s to ensure the survival of the manned A/C.

 

[Kirkhill]

20 I think you’re ignoring the fact that the F-35 is much more likely to get within range of the targets to release their payload than the Valkyrie.

I’m certainly not dismissing the concept of the Valkyrie, but I view it as an additional item, to the F-15EX, F-16 and F-35.

I’d just as soon have the Valkyrie carry decoys and AMM’s to ensure the survival of the manned A/C.

On the other hand, for the cost of 1x F35 and 8x Stormbreakers I could launch 20x Valkyries with 40x Stormbreakers and hit targets at 5600 km without having to worry about refuelling the F35 on the way in and out 4 or 5 times on each leg. And the Valkyrie still has room for AMRAAMs and decoys on its wings.

Launching a couple of F35s adjacent to the target to supervise activities and then 20 Valkyries at range to conduct the mission seems like an not unreasonable COA. Let the F35s stay cloaked.

 

[dimsum]

For a second there I thought you guys were talking about this Valkyrie:

VF-1 Valkyrie - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Kirkhill]

Drones, C-UAS, USVs, UUVs, UAVs, Stern Landing Ships, LSMs etc - Marine Logistics.

Marines expect ‘big year’ for drone, ship and logistics testing

Aerial and maritime drones coupled with a new shore-to-shore connector aim to overcome logistical hurdles.

www.marinecorpstimes.com

 

[Kirkhill]

“We will never again trade blood for first contact,” he frequently says, promising to deploy robots instead.

The robots are coming: US Army experiments with human-machine warfare

But before it works, the service must break from antiquated acquisition processes that prevent rapid purchases and slow down deliveries to soldiers.

www.armytimes.com

Leaders also say it’s not technology that will prove the most difficult factor, but rather breaking from antiquated acquisition processes that prevent rapid purchases and slow down deliveries to soldiers.

“The pace of the threat and the pace of technology — the evolution is much faster, and there’s no way that we’re going to succeed if we continue to acquire technology or even choose to develop” it at the usual pace, Joseph Welch, the Army’s C5ISR Center director, said at the March event.

Edit: Noteworthy final comment

“Most people overestimate the speed at which you can develop new concepts of employment around even proven engineering,” he said. “It often takes years outside of a major war to build entirely new formations and structures.”

Outside of a major war.... what changes?

 

[KevinB]

Outside of a major war.... what changes?

War is the final arbiter.
The good idea fairy can run rampant until hit by the flat face of bloody reality.

Peacetime armies are reluctant to change simply because until metal meets the flesh a lot is just theory.

 

[Kirkhill]

War is the final arbiter.
The good idea fairy can run rampant until hit by the flat face of bloody reality.

Peacetime armies are reluctant to change simply because until metal meets the flesh a lot is just theory.

Peacetime armies that are reluctant to change often discover lots of metal meeting their flesh because they didn't change.

It is never an either/or situation. It is appropriate to retain legacy skills It is also appropriate to keep up with developments and adopt new skills.

Otherwise you find yourself backfooted for two or three years figuring out how to regain what you have lost.

 

[KevinB]

Peacetime armies that are reluctant to change often discover lots of metal meeting their flesh because they didn't change.

It is never an either/or situation. It is appropriate to retain legacy skills It is also appropriate to keep up with developments and adopt new skills.

Otherwise you find yourself backfooted for two or three years figuring out how to regain what you have lost.

Not disagreeing there.

 

[Kirkhill]

Drone Mothership for FPV Drones -

A new drone supposedly in use by Russian forces is claimed to act as a mothership, delivering First Person Video (FPV) drones well beyond their notoriously limited range, while also acting as an aerial data-link relay node needed to connect the FPV drones with their 'pilots' miles away. Regardless if the craft in question is actually capable of performing these tasks, the concept is highly relevant as a novel way to get around major technological limitations on the cheap, while resulting potentially in major battlefield impacts.

FPV Drone Motherships That Also Relay Their Signals Offer Huge Advantages

Rumors that Russia is using such a system are circulating, but the concept could overcome major FPV drone deficiencies for both sides.

www.twz.com