Election 2015

[McG]

I suspect getting rid of first past the post would require a Constitutional amendment considering so many constituency related definitions are tied into the Constitution. 

No constitutional reform needed.  Constituencies can be single member or multi-member represented.  Even within single member represented constituencies, there are options other than FPTP.  Give this thread a read:  http://army.ca/forums/threads/25692.0.html

 

[Brad Sallows]

I don't listen to radio or watch TV routinely, but I heard an interesting Liberal idea on the former this afternoon; apparently, Team Trudeau is going to free up land for affordable middle-class housing in Vancouver (the city was mentioned by name).

After observing the decades-long saga of the Jericho lands and knowing the old Fairmont Barracks land is highly likely to go through the same mill, I 'd like to know what federal land there is in Vancouver that the Liberals are going to suddenly free up without the say-so of local aboriginal bands.  I'd also like to know why the federal level of government needs to be involved in any detail other than simply selling land it doesn't want to whomever wants to buy it.

The deficit-fueled additional spending was also mentioned.  It reminded me that it isn't clear that the Liberal plan will actually include as much proper infrastructure* spending as the Conservative one, but that the Liberal plan does include deficits and some sort of "social infrastructure"** and "green infrastructure"*** spending.

*Stuff that genuinely promotes economic growth by facilitating commerce
**Affordable housing (for the middle class, it seems, and not people on low incomes, which is the usual target for subsidized housing), and senior's centers.
***Companies formed to milk subsidies until the subsidy goes away, at which point the companies fold?

I'd like to know more about these pig-in-a-poke proposals.  At this point, the Liberals' proposed spending scheme and the associated shell game with taxes and benefits look like smokescreens to conceal the creation of a pork/slush fund.  (As pinched as the Liberals are for finding money to make promises, it defies common sense to believe they don't expect to gain net revenue from their tax/benefit shifts.)

 

[George Wallace]

I don't listen to radio or watch TV routinely, but I heard an interesting Liberal idea on the former this afternoon; apparently, Team Trudeau is going to free up land for affordable middle-class housing in Vancouver (the city was mentioned by name).
...............................................

Can we start to tally up these promises?  He is promising money $1B towards Light Rail in the City of Ottawa.  He has also promised towards Light Rail in Montreal, to the tune of $20M.  What other similar promises across the country has he made?  What is the grand tally?

 

[George Wallace]

>I really don't trust the polls.

For myself, I distrust the ones that don't tell me what I want to hear.

;D

 

[PuckChaser]

I think I see why Eric at 308.com weights the Nanos poll so highly. It supports his favoured candidate, he even lets them advertise on the site (let's hope this picture works on non-mobile):

 

[Altair]

I think I see why Eric at 308.com weights the Nanos poll so highly. It supports his favoured candidate, he even lets them advertise on the site (let's hope this picture works on non-mobile):

Of course.

Let's just ignore his and nanos historical accuracy in predicting election results.

 

[Blackadder1916]

I think I see why Eric at 308.com weights the Nanos poll so highly. It supports his favoured candidate, he even lets them advertise on the site (let's hope this picture works on non-mobile):

I've visited ThreeHundredEight.com a few times  and have never seen Liberal (or any other political party) advertising.  I think you may not be aware how a lot of internet advertising happens.  Taking a closer look at the ad shown in the screen shot (?), I noticed in the upper corner the AdChoices icon

.  I had always thought that means the particular ad is associated with a Google ads program and its content is usually targeted to the browsing history of the user.  Rather than saying something about the political preference of Eric Grenier, that ad showing up means that Google thinks you are a (potential?) Liberal supporter.

About Google Ads
Advertise your business with ads by Google all over the web (AdWords) or earn revenue from your website with ads by Google (AdSense). Try AdWords or AdSense


Ever notice "Ads by Google," "Sponsored Links," or the AdChoices icon

as you browse the web? Ads like these show all across the Internet. Advertisers can use AdWords to show Google Ads on sites that are part of the Google Display Network. You may come across such ads when you're viewing a website, video, or app on Googles Display Network or other partner sites. You may also come across such ads with Google Maps or YouTube videos embedded on partner sites. In addition to seeing ads based on the types of sites you visit, you may also see ads based on your interests and more.

Now, even though a lot of the advertising on his site may be Google generated, it doesn't mean that it doesn't seek unique advertisers to help pay the bills.

Advertising with ThreeHundredEight.com

 
ThreeHundredEight.com is a great place to reach an educated and politically aware adult audience that includes Canadians from every political stripe. A non-partisan political site, it has been in operation since October 2008 and is updated on a near-daily basis.

ThreeHundredEight.com received 1.5 million hits during the 2011 Canadian federal election (including 200,000 on the day of the vote) and 1.25 million hits during the 2014 Ontario provincial election. It continues to attract a high and growing number of page views even outside of election campaigns.

Though the site has attracted and retained a large audience on its own, traffic is also driven to the site via my weekly columns and television appearances for the CBC and my monthly columns for The Hill Times. In addition, ThreeHundredEight.com is also regularly referenced and sourced in national and regional media across Canada.

If you're interested in placing an advertisement, please contact me at threehundredeight@gmail.com for full details, or click on the following:

threehundredeight@gmail.com

Note to readers: Advertisements featured on this site are not endorsements of these companies or organizations.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail is an article describing what three of the Globe's reporters expect to see in the last full week of the campaign:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elections/parties-take-aim-at-trudeau-as-liberals-lead-polls/article26768494/

Conservatives, NDP focus on reeling in front-runner Trudeau

STEVEN CHASE, GLORIA GALLOWAY AND DANIEL LEBLANC
MARKHAM, ONT., NANAIMO, B.C. and OTTAWA — The Globe and Mail

Published Sunday, Oct. 11, 2015

With one week left before Election Day, the last stage of a gruelling campaign for political power in Canada has come down to this: trying to catch Justin Trudeau.

Scrambling to gain ground on the front-runner Liberals, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are devoting this Thanksgiving long weekend to raising red flags about what they say are the economic perils of putting Mr. Trudeau in office.

The Liberals have increased their lead nationally over the Conservatives to 6.8 percentage points in the latest Nanos Research tracking poll. This marks the 11th straight day the Liberals have polled ahead of the Conservatives, who are now below the 30-per-cent mark for the third day in a row.

Mr. Trudeau’s party is heading into the holiday Monday with sufficient support, pollsters say, to win a strong minority government – a reversal of fortune in a campaign that began more than two months ago.

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair, still lagging third in the polls after a significant slide in recent weeks, took careful aim at Mr. Trudeau, rather than Mr. Harper, over a major Pacific Rim trade deal the Conservatives signed last week.

Mr. Mulcair accused the Liberal Leader of letting the Harper government off easy over what he characterizes as a job-killing accord. He said Sunday that “New Democrats will not be bound by Stephen Harper’s secret deal.”

The Liberal Leader took a break from his national tour Sunday, but issued an open letter making his case for a Trudeau government as an agent of change. “One thing has become clear: we can’t afford another 10 years like the last 10 years,” he wrote.

Mr. Mulcair toured Vancouver Island over the weekend, one region where his party has the best chance of taking seats from the Tories.

It is possible that all of the ridings here could go orange except Saanich-Gulf Islands, where Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is likely to be re-elected.

Mr. Harper’s campaign, meanwhile, trained all of its rhetorical guns on Mr. Trudeau and on Sunday at least tried to shore up existing Conservative territory in advance of the Oct. 19 vote.

The Conservative Leader’s tour in the Greater Toronto Area was more of a defensive action. Rather than stumping for candidates in ridings where the Tories have never won, Mr. Harper’s three public appearances were with Conservative incumbents: Julian Fantino in Vaughan-Woodbridge, Paul Calandra in Oak Ridges-Markham and Costas Menegakis in Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill.

Mr. Harper campaigned at a Woodbridge-area fall fair, a Richmond Hill senior’s residence and a Markham pumpkin patch.

Former Harper lieutenant John Baird, who stepped down as Foreign Affairs minister earlier this year, joined the Conservative Leader on the campaign trail for the first time.

Mr. Baird urged Canadians, as they gathered this Thanksgiving with friends and family, to think twice before voting for Mr. Trudeau, who polls suggest has the lead in Ontario, the most vote-rich battleground in Canada.

Mr. Baird said Canadians should not simply vote for the most congenial leader. “This is not a popularity contest like America’s Got Talent,” Mr. Baird, a veteran of Ontario and Ottawa politics, said of the 2015 federal election.

A three-day rolling poll of 1,200 randomly selected Canadians conducted by Nanos Research for The Globe and Mail and CTV between Oct. 9 and 11 suggests the Liberals have 35.7-per-cent support nationally, followed by the Conservatives at 28.9 per cent and the NDP at 24.3 per cent. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In an interview, pollster Nik Nanos said the results showing Liberals clearly in the lead mean Canadians will be conducting their “due diligence” on Mr. Trudeau’s party this week.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, used one of their biggest names in the GTA to raise alarms about the negative economic impact of a potential Trudeau government. Joe Oliver, the Conservative minister responsible for the GTA and government Finance Minister, held a news conference this weekend in Toronto to target a Liberal promise to negotiate an expansion of the existing Canada Pension Plan with the provinces. This measure would in all likelihood require higher CPP contributions from some workers’ pay packets and from their employers.

The Conservative candidate cited a warning from the Ontario Chamber of Commerce that said 44 per cent of its members reported they would reduce their payroll or hire fewer workers as a result of the Ontario pension plan costs. “This is really a preview of what a Justin Trudeau government would create.”

John McCallum, the Liberal candidate for Markham-Thornhill, said the Conservative attack on Mr. Trudeau’s pledge to enhance the Canada Pension Plan is driven by “a state of desperation” in the Harper camp.

The problem, especially for the CPC, is that while Canadians might, indeed, vote with their pocketbooks, there is nothing to suggest that they actually understand what the promises and advertising and media spin all mean. It seems that some people were right, almost three years ago, in saying that "despite the pretty poor showing on policy it appears that many, many Canadians, a plurality, anyway, of those under 60, are so celebrity obsessed and so devoid of any rational interest in what their vote might mean, that they would be willing to give a Liberal Party led by M. Trudeau a shot at governing."

 

[runormal]

I think I see why Eric at 308.com weights the Nanos poll so highly. It supports his favoured candidate, he even lets them advertise on the site (let's hope this picture works on non-mobile):

I agree with Blackadder.

I've been visiting 308 since August and only in the past few days have I seen Justin Trudeau ads. On the flip side only in the past few weeks have I been heavily viewing the liberal party platform as well as watching various liberal support ads on Youtube. I've also been reading a number of liberal articles on the internet. Since I own an android smart phone and browse through google chrome I fully realize that google is tracking my every move  :Tin-Foil-Hat:. Google wants to make money, and advertiser's want their dollars to get the best bang for the buck. As a result I get ads based on what I view, google can also offer my demographic and my location and tailor locations directly to me.

Hell even on YouTube I can show my support for the Liberals.

If i click on it I'll be redirected to the Liberal page and then I can plot in my email and postal code and the Liberals will give me the location and hours of operations of the advance polling stations and who my candidate is (in case I missed seeing all of the signs). I can even put a reminder into my calendar on my smartphone.

While this my first election really looking at pre election surveys in this much depth I really don't think this anything to do with whether or not Mr. Greniér supports the liberal party. I believe it is more of a case of google ads trying to make money and please their client at the same time.


Edit: First thumbnail didn't resize properly, added a concluding paragraph

 

[Edward Campbell]

David Akin, Sun News, says that the National Post has "grudgingly endorsed" the CPC ...

             

I must say I share the National Post's view ... I voted, but not without reservations. I voted for the least bad choice: for a fully acceptable candidate who represents the party with the policies that show some "free market reflexes" and which are "broadly in the right direction."

 

[Edward Campbell]

I still think it is a toss-up and there might be a Conservative bump as old people are more likely to actually vote.

The latest poll I can find Angus Reid of October 9 shows:

Conservative 33
Liberal          31
NDP            25
Bloc              6
Green            3
??                2
                ----
                100
                ===
A lot of the polls other than Nanos have the Conservatives ahead.  Nanos, because it is sponsored by CTV seems to be widely reported.  It ain't over yet.

Then there's EKOS of the same day - Liberal 33.8; Conservative 33.7; NDP 20.4; Green 7.2; Bloc 3.5

Without NANOS it seems to be a draw.

And EKOS[/i] from 11 Oct:


    Tie Continues
    CHECK BACK NEXT WEEK TO SEE IF TURKEY DELIBERATIONS HAVE BROKEN STALEMATE

    [Ottawa – October 11, 2015] The statistical logjam continues as we enter the final week of the election campaign. The Liberal and Conservative parties continue to see-saw back and forth for the lead. Indeed, the only clear movement
    over the last few days has been a decline in NDP support.

    Contrary to other polls, we continue to see a three-way deadlock in Quebec. Ontario, meanwhile, is now a very unpredictable two-way contest with the NDP finding itself in an increasingly distant third-place. However, the NDP
    continues to be a major force in both Quebec and British Columbia. The Green Party is a definite force is British Columbia; indeed, if you combine the party’s first and second choice standings, the Green Party enjoys a 32-point
    vote ceiling in the province and could pull off a few surprises on October 19th.

    In terms of our prediction for Election Day, we are almost certainly looking at either a minority government led by either the Conservatives or Liberals. Very little else is clear in this campaign, as there are two major sources of uncertainty.

    The first is engagement and turnout. The Conservatives retain a huge and stable lead with seniors, the only group where they enjoy a clear lead. Seniors are a very large and very reliable voting bloc and this will be a major advantage
    for the Conservatives in terms of turnout. Meanwhile, the university-educated are the leading source of Liberal renewal, which could be a response to the debate surrounding the niqab and cultural politics.

    The second is the issue of cellphone-only households. While this may seem like an area of technical obscurantism, we believe this segment will be critical to the outcome of the election. In the last election, we were further off the
    final result for having included this segment that was less likely to vote and less likely to favour the Conservatives. Those two features are still very much in play this time with the notable differences that the cellphone-only is now
    roughly three times larger and tells us they are much more certain to vote than they told us last time. The cellphone-only population contains lots of the younger – less old and educated respondents who tell us they are extremely
    engaged and motivated by the values war that seems to underlie this election. If they show up, Harper loses; if they don’t, he wins.

    Other internal polling suggests four things:

          Canadians are far more engaged that they were in 2011.
          The election that was supposed to focus on the economy has instead become all about values.
          The election is not seen as “business as usual”; instead, it is seen a historic and stark choice.
          The public do not believe that either the Conservatives or the Liberals will win a majority, but Canadians will be apoplectic if Stephen Harper wins another majority.

   

   

   

All this to say, to those who have not yet voted: your vote still matters to the Conservatives, to the Liberals, to the NDP, to the Greens and to the Libertarians, too.


Edit: format

 

[Edward Campbell]

The TPP is "the" election issue, although I doubt many people realize it.  In a few years none of the other FUD being thrown up by all parties is going to matter.

Agreed, just like NAFTA was two three decades ago.  Too bad we are talking about niqabs....

Well, the NDP is talking about it, in this ad.

 

[Remius]

Voted today.  Was quick enough to get through.  I always avoid advance polling in case something might happen in the last week but being out of country on election night forced my hand.  Glad to live in a country with such electoral flexibility.

 

[Rocky Mountains]

No constitutional reform needed.  Constituencies can be single member or multi-member represented.  Even within single member represented constituencies, there are options other than FPTP.  Give this thread a read:  http://army.ca/forums/threads/25692.0.html

Doesn't jive with "each whereof shall be an Electoral District, each such District as numbered in that Schedule being entitled to return One Member." (Section 40. 1. Ontario)

As I said, it can't be done without a Constitutional amendment.  What you are going to end up with is a bunch of MPs put forward by their party that aren't aren't elected by anyone in particular, elected without the voters ever seeing their faces.  I thought everyone was ticked off with all the control exercised by parties.  An additional problem is that Quebec may end up with MPs based on voter results in Ontario.  That would not make them all that pleased.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Globe and Mail reports that M Trudeau might be going after a potentially disenchanted group of Conservatives: "Justin Trudeau is targeting Conservative voters as he tours through Ontario in the last week of the campaign, arguing Stephen Harper has abandoned the “progressive” heritage of his Tory predecessors ... [and] ... The Liberal Leader said that in the past, PC governments fought against poverty and helped to improve Canada’s reputation on the world stage. “Those are values that haven’t disappeared, they have just disappeared from the current Conservative Party and disappeared along with anything progressive about them,” he said."

It might just work, the questions are: how many of the old Progressive Conservative Red Tories are left; and how many of those are both Red Tory and happy with the idea of new, quite unnecessary deficits?

 

[McG]

RTFT.  Nothing in there mandates FPTP,  and the paragraph states it is only in force until Parlaiment sets something different.  Here is what you chose to ignore because it was contrary to the conclusion you want:

40. Until the Parliament of Canada otherwise provides, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick shall, for the Purposes of the Election of Members to serve in the House of Commons, be divided into Electoral Districts as follows:

http://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/const/page-2.html

You also chose to ignore other things inconvenient to your conclusion.  As I stated in my previous post, single member constituency is not a synonym for FPTP.  There are other options for electoral systems even in single member represented constituencies.  As suggested prior, see here: http://army.ca/forums/threads/25692.0.html

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Globe and Mail looks at how straegic voting works in one riding: Kitchener-Centre.

The article say that, "“Anybody But Harper” has become a kind of war whoop for disaffected voters this election, rallying the likes of union bosses and military veterans – as well as one creative farmer, who plowed the slogan across his rye field in Burford, Ont. Mr. Harper has inspired unprecedented hatred on the Canadian left through his hardline positions on crime and terrorism, his embrace of Alberta’s oil sands, and his frosty and controlling persona ... [and] voters like Michele Cadotte [who] wishes she could vote for the Green Party ... has decided to vote strategically this election. She loathes the Conservative government and Prime Minister Stephen Harper – toppling them has become her top priority. Further, "The strategic voting push in this campaign is premised on the idea that left-leaning voters aren’t picky about who replaces Mr. Harper as Prime Minister. It’s a view that’s rooted in evidence. Supporters of both parties have expressed a willingness to back the other horse in a pinch."

 

[Rifleman62]

ERC previous post quoting EKOS:

The Conservatives retain a huge and stable lead with seniors, the only group where they enjoy a clear lead. Seniors are a very large and very reliable voting bloc and this will be a major advantage for the Conservatives in terms of turnout.

And that's why CPC friendly  ;D Elections Canada fucked up the advance polls.

 

[jollyjacktar]

If nothing else, Mr. Harper seems to have galvanized the electorate into coming out to vote in greater numbers than have been seen for many years.  You could say he's unified the country in that respect.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I know that some members, here on Army.ca, cannot wait for Prime Minister Harper's Conservative government to be a thing of the past, some others just really like M Trudeau, I suspect that those same people will mistrust anything said by the Fraser Institute but even so, even you might find this article written by TWO Fraser Institute stalwarts worrying.