F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF)

[SeaKingTacco]

Maybe til 2028-30. Then the international customers will be going it alone...

 

[Good2Golf]

Yes, the part that the Super Hornet will be going out of production pretty soon (2017?).

You mean in the same way the C-17 just went out of production?

 

[HB_Pencil]

Well:

Mark
Ottawa

The earliest any purchase would happen is 2018, and that assumes that the new government makes an immediate decision to go to competition after the election and ignore the National Fighter Procurement Secretariat's likely recommendation to go with the F-35 according to the MOU. The organizational capacity within DND is just not there, as the program office is stripped to the bone... it would require at least a year to get the personnel together to actually write a RFP, speak nothing of actually starting an evaluation. Moreover at basically one EA-18G being produced a month, compared to 13 F-35s, its extremely unlikely that the former will be cheaper than the latter. The line is already experiencing significant DMS issues, and then there are FMS and procurement costs that are not present if one decides to select the F-35 through the MOU.

As for support, its likely the aircraft will see it until the mid 2030s, but the question really is, what will the nature of that support be? Doctrinally, the F/A-18E is being set up as a glorified bomb-truck behind UCLASS and the F-35C. That doesn't really bode well for Canada's requirement to have a true combat capable multirole aircraft. Looking back at previous exemplars, like the F-14, A-6, and A-7, They saw a gradual diminishing of upgrades into their last years of service, due to greater investments into their replacements, like the F/A-18A/C/E/F. So while the F-35 will see major upgrades like Advent Core (a new engine promising 15~20% greater SFC at nearly the same Thrust) in the late 2020s... the Super Hornet Fleet will likely see small incremental upgrades that keep the aircraft viable in its diminishing role.

(edited for the Advent Core info... I got it backwards.)

 

[HB_Pencil]

And what is the probability of an Air to Air kill on an AS-15?  Any platform - any weapon.

The question is whether you can find it. Your best chance of doing that is with a fleet of networked F-35s, as you have the most advanced sensor platform (with EOTS and APG-81), as well as sensor fusion. The latter is critical. Current generation of systems basically transfers plots and tracks between aircraft: so its down to an individual sensor to identify a target. The F-35's avionics through the Multifunction Advanced Data Link shares raw data: so aircraft can compare data from different platforms in order to develop a target solution. That provides it with a much greater resolution than current generation systems. Its basically the most valuable part of the F-35's development, and when considering continental defence requirements, was one of the main reasons behind the original project office's recommendation to select the fighter. 

 

[MarkOttawa]

SeaKingTacco:

[NavAir will support Super Hornet] Maybe til 2028-30. Then the international customers will be going it alone..

.

April 2015:

Navy Leans Toward Building More Super Hornets After F-35C Delays
...
The Navy had been planning for the Super Hornets to serve well into the 2030s, but now service leaders say that timeline will need to extend into the 2040s [emphasis added]...
http://defensetech.org/2015/04/22/navy-leans-toward-building-more-super-hornets-after-f-35c-delays/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

From the almost certain new Chairman of Joint Chiefs:

Dunford Says F-35 Fleet Size Under Review; Supports F-35 Buy

The presumptive Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford, has told the Senate Armed Services Committee...the Pentagon is looking hard at just how many F-35 Joint Strike Fighters to buy.

Breaking Defense obtained a copy of the 75-page set of Dunford’s answers to questions posed by the SASC...

How Many F-35s?

You can almost hear Sen. John McCain thundering when the questions get to the F-35.

“The program has not yet completed the System Development and Demonstration (SDD) phase, and is not due to enter full rate production until 2019, 17 years after its inception,” the committee’s question starts. “Do you believe the nation can afford to procure these aircraft at a cost of $12B to $15B per year for nearly the next 20 years for an aircraft design that will be 30 years old at the completion of the program procurement phase?” Then the committee asks Dunford if he supports the requirement for 2,443 Joint Strike Fighters.

The prospective chairman calls the F-35 a “vital component of our effort to ensure the Joint Force maintains dominance in the air.” But there is a big but. He discloses that the requirement for the size of the fleet is being reviewed: “Given the evolving defense strategy and the latest Defense Planning Guidance, we are presently taking the newest strategic foundation and analyzing whether 2,443 aircraft is the correct number. Until the analysis is complete, we need to pursue the current scheduled quantity buy to preclude creating an overall near-term tactical fighter shortfall.”

(A source close to the program was comfortable with the need for review and said nothing has changed strategically enough to change the need for 2,443 planes.)

Dunford ends by arguing the Pentagon “has been working diligently to make the overall cost per F-35 more affordable. Additionally, there will continue to be critical updates throughout the life cycle of the F-35 that will ensure the platform maintains a tactical advantage.”..
http://breakingdefense.com/2015/07/dunford-says-f-35-fleet-requirement-under-review-supports-f-35-buy/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Retired AF Guy]

The question is whether you can find it. Your best chance of doing that is with a fleet of networked F-35s, as you have the most advanced sensor platform (with EOTS and APG-81), as well as sensor fusion. The latter is critical. Current generation of systems basically transfers plots and tracks between aircraft: so its down to an individual sensor to identify a target. The F-35's avionics through the Multifunction Advanced Data Link shares raw data: so aircraft can compare data from different platforms in order to develop a target solution. That provides it with a much greater resolution than current generation systems. Its basically the most valuable part of the F-35's development, and when considering continental defence requirements, was one of the main reasons behind the original project office's recommendation to select the fighter.

Of course, the best policy is shootdown the carriers (Bear-H/Blackjack) before they can launch their missiles. The problem is the AS-15 has enough range that it can hit most targets in North America before the the bombers even hit the NA landmass (if coming over the Artic). So, the fighters would have to intercept the bombers well before that.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

More from AvWeek's critical Bill Sweetman (further links at original):

So if RCAF F-35s were doing NORAD air defence would they hang Sidewinders or other missiles externally?

Mark
Ottawa

In the NORAD role the target is going to be bombers (Bear-H/Blackjack) that don't have air-to-air radars, so you don't have to worry about the F-35's RCS.

 

[MarkOttawa]

Royal Aeronautical Society--just stay well BVR vs Su-35:

Does the F-35 really suck in air combat?

TIM ROBINSON puts virtual F-35s into perhaps the most accurate non-classified high-fidelity simulation of a future air combat clash. Who comes out on top?..
http://aerosociety.com/News/Insight-Blog/3272/Does-the-F35-really-suck-in-air-combat

Mark
Ottawa

 

[tomahawk6]

The F-35 program is in trouble.The Chairman JCS may cut the planned buy.Right now if all 2400 some aircraft are bought it would cost $1.3 trillion.This at a time of budget cuts and we still dont have a viable aircraft.The Naval version hasnt been certified for carrier ops.The F-16 beat an F-35 in a dogfight in Jan.Not looking good.

 

[MarkOttawa]

Meanwhile:

Marines drop first bombs from F-35B in test runs

Marine pilots recently dropped dozens of live bombs from the F-35B joint strike fighter for the first time, bringing the aircraft a step closer to its long-anticipated rollout.

Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 121 dropped 30 bombs over five days without a hitch in late June near Marine Corps Air Station Yuma, Arizona. It was a first for the squadron testing the aircraft's capabilities, and Marines said they can hit targets in little- to no-visibility.

That showed that the F-35B is ready and able to conduct direct strikes in a battlefield environment, , said Maj. Christopher Trent, VMFA-121's pilot training officer and one of 14 pilots who flew several of the test sorties...
http://www.marinecorpstimes.com/story/military/tech/2015/07/11/marine-pilots-complete-f-35b-first-operational-bomb-runs/29926301/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

F-35, F-16 and BFM:

Some interesting stuff in comments here:
http://arstechnica.com/business/2015/07/disastrous-f-35-vs-f-16-face-off-was-also-a-battle-of-philosophies/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[tomahawk6]

Nice find Mark !!

 

[MarkOttawa]

tomahawk6: Fair and balanced ; my jury still out overall on program.

Mark
Ottawa

 

[tomahawk6]

IMO the USAF will see its planned buy of 2400 aircraft reduced due to budget cuts.This has to be one of the worst new aircraft programs in the history of the USAF.

 

[estoguy]

So, can someone explain why we got so tunnel visioned on the F-35? 

Going back to the article I posted... because of our close relations with the states, it would seem we really don't need a "first day" strike plane.  So why the delay on replacing our old Hornets?

 

[SupersonicMax]

How do you plan operating in an environment where SA-10/SA-15/SA-17/SA-20/SA-21/SA-22/SA-23 are present?

Before you say we will never confront Russia, look at the list of countries who acquired the systems.

 

[Loachman]

Going back to the article I posted...

The Byers "article"?

That guy's a numpty of the first order of magnitude.

 

[Kirkhill]

estoguy -

The big issue for the also-rans, and the reason they are fighting so hard, is that if the build of 2000 to 3000 F-35s goes ahead there will be no other competing aircraft companies left.

Everybody else scratches to sell 50 aircraft here and a squadron there.  You can't fund a national aerospace programme on that basis.  Not even my heroes the Swedes can manage that.  And I do not put the Russians or Chinese in the same technological (or financial) league as the Yanks.

LockMart has got clear skies with the F35 compared to any of the others.  That is why everyone else is so desperate to:

a) sell their available aircraft from existing lines - they know the will never build another
b) do everything in their power to slow and diminish the introduction of the F35 - including getting governments to withhold dollars and commitments.

By the time the F35 reaches the same point in its life-cycle that the F16 has technology and the world will have changed dramatically again and needs and capabilities will again be different.

The F16 alone virtually killed the non-US aerospace industry.  The F35 will nail that lid shut.

 

[WingsofFury]

The F16 alone virtually killed the non-US aerospace industry.  The F35 will nail that lid shut.

Agree with most of what you typed, but this last bit; I wouldn't go so far as to say the Viper virtually killed the non US aerospace industry.  One can take a look at Eurofighter as well as Sukhoi and see that they've maintained a consumer base.  That being said, the -35 will be providing the commonality which all NATO countries will be looking for and thus ensure the highest level of interoperability possible during any Allied intervention.

I still like the idea of a competition between the -35 and a -15E variant; that would be interesting to see.  It would always come down to cost though, which would mean the -35 will be the victor.  Well, that and DAS...