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Failing Islamic States - 2011

On Egypt

Might as well refer to the US as the Egyptian political wedge
Every journalist has an updated story, and every newspaper carrys one
but there is no advancement for "Made in Egypt politics" and I think there never will be.
Anger and tensions approach the boiling point. What next ? 

The idea of stepping down is being said ever so loudly by the people and so much more has been added by some of the worlds most influentual people, and still they are unable to bend that long standing autocratic government, whose members enjoy some of the greatest wealth ever ammassed in the modern world. Of all of it, a near 0% is set aside for aid to the most impoverished nations.
The change of command (so to speak) must be done quickly, has changed suddenly and abrupty into taking a much more slower and prolonged transition.

The people revolt in ever greater numbers in hope to be heard. But their voices fall upon sealed ears of corrupt men who are well accustomed to outright denial while they sit in extremly high places. Members of that government spoil themselves with tens of billions in personal wealth while there are people literally starving to death in neighboring African countries not so far off to the south. And if that does not spell out corruption enough, they deny their countrymen the basic necessities like schooling, by creating and enforcing a ridiculous emergency law. A nonsense law whether lifted or not should be urgently weighed in the highest courtroom possible. Without a doubt it would be found to be likened to a crime against humanity.

The members of government that so willingly enforced that law should be stripped of all illegitimately gained personal wealth and dealt with as crimminals. They should be tried by the very laws of the state that they themselves designed and enforced upon their own countrymen. Without appeal and without political asylum.
Without shame they boast that their own army receives billions per year in US handout dollars, and that for exceedingly too many years.
Consider that one of the greatest contributors to the existing starving African nations is the US of A.

Lets give him all the time necessary to do the right thing before it turns into what nobody wants, disruption/closure of the Suez canal or worse yet, a military coup or both. 

Western credibility on the issue may be the talk around European watercoolers over the last few days, and not for nothing, Germany knows full well the strategic importance of Egypt and The Suez in world economics and recognize the resulting dwindling american financial situation.
Collectively they wait the opportune moment to flex their muscle (first) over the Egyptian thoroughfare should the need arise.
Germany as the political center of the EU will not accept threats lightly that affect its articulated supremacy nor its economic base.

Egypt, being a long standing US ally sends a powerful message to the whole of the Middle East while assuring Israel.
Mr Mubaraks' stance of ignoring external pressure will make things worse. He hopes that there will be no undermining nor an
alienation from the existing political choir except the transfer of some powers to his friend Omar Suleiman.

Hopefully a voice (such as billionaire strongman Naguib Sawiris) can be enough to quench the thirst and initiate political change
demanded by the younger generation, but I have my doubts because that voice needs to convince the Egyptian people of the West's interest in the maintenance of the Muslim culture within the state, and at the same time guarantee the ousting of the Iranian influenced Brotherhood.

All the while the US needs to maintain its long standing ties with Israel and take appropiate consideration for the fragility of its own neighbor (the PA).
Quite the balancing act from outside the box.
Germany and the EU know that the US will not take the back seat after going the long haul with Egypt, but they are surely watching developements closely.

(MO 57Chevy)
 
Journeyman said:
Actually, the Twit post reads "Mubarak: I have decided to hand over powers to VP Omar Suleiman according to the laws of the country." It doesn't say he's passed on his authority.
Cut/pasted the wrong link - thanks for that.
 
If the Egyptian Army's senior leadership stay with the regime too long, perhaps a "revolt of the colonels"?  And what might their political and religious positions be?  And with whom US influence may be less--or even more?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Officers_Movement

http://www.google.com/search?num=100&hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&q=%22revolt+of+the+colonels%22++&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=

http://www.google.com/search?num=100&hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&q=%22revolt+of+the+colonels%22++&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=

Mark
Ottawa
 
Looks like the only person who will have a say in Mubarak's resignation is....Hosni Mubarsk:

http://blogs.dailymail.com/donsurber/archives/29332

Mubarak 1, Obama 0
February 10, 2011 by Don Surber

So our CIA told President Obama that Hosni Mubarak would resign today.

From Rush Limbaugh: Obama went to Northern Michigan University in Marquette, Michigan, and said: “I just want to say that we are following today’s events in Egypt very closely. We’ll have more to say as this plays out. But what is absolutely clear is that we are witnessing history unfold. The moment of transformation is taking place because the people of Egypt are calling for change.

“They’ve turned out in extraordinary numbers representing all ages and all walks of life. But it’s young people who’ve been at the forefront — new generation, your generation, who want their voices to be heard. So going forward, we want those young people and we want all Egyptians to know America will continue to do everything that we can to support an orderly and genuine transition to democracy in Egypt.

“As we watch what’s taking place, we’re also reminded that we live in an interconnected world. What happens across the globe has an impact on each and every one of us.”

Except, Mubarak did not resign.

In fact, Mubarak told the people protesting at Tahrir Square in Cairo, go home. I told you I am not leaving until after the September elections, and I am not.

Good for him. Good for us.

From the Washington Post:

    CAIRO – Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, defiantly rejecting opposition demands that he leave power immediately, vowed late Thursday that he would follow through with his plans to transfer authority to an elected government after his term ends in September and would continue efforts to amend Egypt’s constitution in the meantime.

    In a televised address to the nation, the 82-year-old president indicated that he was taking steps to lift a widely despised emergency law. But the speech fell far short of demands that he give up the office he has held for nearly 30 years and start an immediate transition to democracy.

Obama was just played.

Let’s get a few things straight: 1. Mubarak is a loyal friend of the United States and Israel. 2. Mubarak has been extremely valuable in the war on terrorism. 3. Mubarak may not be disliked at all. His government, sure. But I am not so sure that people don’t like him. 4. The Muslim Brotherhood is the only winner if Mubarak suddenly leaves without a reliable successor. 5. Obviously, Mubarak has the power to stay in power. The people at Tahrir Square tonight are not necessarily the majority of Egyptians.

The Muslim Brotherhood wants to take over Egypt. I have a feeling that in the next 7 months — before Mubarak leaves — the Muslim Brotherhood will be a few members smaller.

Who the hell does President Obama think he is trying to dictate who should or should not be in charge of a country?

He’s a dictator?

Fine. Let’s rid the world of all dictators, beginning with North Korea and Cuba.

If we can back a fellow like Josef Stalin in World War II — a man who killed tens of millions of his own people — we can stand by Mubarak as he sets up his retirement from office.

If Camp David means anything it is that Egypt and Israel are friends. After the assassination of Anwar Sadat, Mubarak stepped in and kept the faith in that accord.

The hypocrisy of those who want to pressure him to leave because he is a dictator is thick and dripping. Most of these sudden advocates for democracy opposed ousting Saddam Hussein. Remember that line, the Iranians didn’t ask to be freed?

That’s like the kid who tells his Mom he didn’t ask to be born.

Patience.

Let’s have an election and have the people pick his successor before we toss Mubarak overboard.

Now, I may be full of wax beans, but consider the lefty reaction.

From Steve Benen: “MUBARAK MANAGES TO MAKE MATTERS MUCH WORSE.”

Yea, that makes me feel better about mine assessment of the situation.

Linked by Glenn Reynolds. Thanks. Glenn Reynolds said: “The country’s in the very best of hands.”

Yes, but which one?

UPDATE: Dave in Boca has some insights into this. Suffice it to say, 53% of America really screwed up in 2008.

Lots of links in Instapundit today as well....
 
Thucydides said:
Looks like the only person who will have a say in Mubarak's resignation is....Hosni Mubark
The thinking at STRATFOR, a US think-tank, is that the decision by Mubarak not to resign seems to have caught both the Egyptian military and western governments by surprise. Now, more than anytime previous in this crisis, the military has a potential to move, à la "Colonels' Revolt," mentioned above.


Basically, this action now creates a massive crisis for the Egyptian military. Its goal is not to save Mubarak but to save the regime founded by Gamal Abdel Nasser. The military faces three choices, and those choices are time-sensitive.

The first is to stand back, allow the crowds to swell and likely march to the presidential palace and perhaps enter the grounds. This opens the door to regime change as the crowd, not the military, determines the course of events.

The second choice is to move troops and armour into position to block more demonstrators from entering Tahrir Square and keep those in the square in place. This creates the possibility of the military firing on the protesters, which have not been anti-military to this point. Clashes with the military (as opposed to the police, which have happened) would undermine the military’s desire to preserve the regime and the perception of the military as not hostile to the public.

The third is to stage a coup and overthrow Mubarak. The military does not want an extraconstitutional action, but Mubarak’s decision leaves the military in the position of taking one of the first two courses, which is unacceptable. That means military action to unseat Mubarak is the remaining choice.

What was that Asian curse about "living in interesting times"?



Note: My excerpt; this is not the complete STRATFOR text available to subscribers; nonetheless, the details are republished acknowledging STRATFOR as the copyright holder
 
Based on early reports ....
Journeyman said:
.... The second choice is to move troops and armour into position to block more demonstrators from entering Tahrir Square and keep those in the square in place. This creates the possibility of the military firing on the protesters, which have not been anti-military to this point. Clashes with the military (as opposed to the police, which have happened) would undermine the military’s desire to preserve the regime and the perception of the military as not hostile to the public ....

Statement from Higher Council of the Armed Forces (2 minute video, via BBC)

Aljazeera English:
Egyptian military leaders have pledged that the country's emergency law will be lifted, but only "as soon as current circumstances end".

The promise was made as part of the Armed Forces Supreme Council's response to the mass protests which are intensifying after President Hosni Mubarak's latest refusal to step down.

In a statement read out on national television, the army leaders also pledged to support work towards peaceful transition of power, in the light of Mubarak handing over some powers to Omar Suleiman, the vice-president.

The third point made was that "the honest men who called for an end to corruption and for reform" will not be prosecuted.

The army generals also called for a return to normal life in the country, as thousands of protesters streamed into Cairo's central Tahrir Square.

Hussein Tantawi, the chief commander and defence minister, chaired Friday's meeting ....

Canadian Press/Associated Press:
Egypt's powerful military backed President Hosni Mubarak's plan to stay in office until September elections, but massive crowds outraged by his refusal to step down packed squares in Egypt's two biggest cities Cairo and Alexandria on Friday. They marched on Mubarak's presidential palaces and blockading state television in a move against symbols of his authoritarian regime.

The Armed Forces Supreme Council, a body of top generals, depicted itself as the champion of reform, promising to make sure Mubarak's leadership carries out promised change and lifts hated emergency laws immediately once protests end, an attempt to win over a population where the army is more trusted than politicians.

But its statement was a heavy blow to many protesters who called on the military to take action to push Mubarak out after he announced on state TV Thursday night that he would hand most of his powers to Vice-President Omar Suleiman but remain in office. With the speech, Mubarak showed a blunt determination not to bend in the face of the biggest mass uprising in Egypt's history, now in its 18th day.

"What are you waiting for?" one protester yelled in the face of an army officer outside Mubarak's main palace, Oruba, in northern Cairo, where a crowd of demonstrators grew to more than 1,000. "Did you sign an oath and pledge your allegiance to the president or the people?" another shouted. It was not known if Mubarak was in the palace, one of at least three in Cairo. The palace was protected by four tanks and rolls of barbed wire, but soldiers did nothing to stop more people from joining the rally ....

Voice of America:
Egypt's military has endorsed the transfer of powers from embattled President Hosni Mubarak to Vice President Omar Suleiman and called for a return to normal life in the Egyptian capital, wracked for 18 days by anti-Mubarak demonstrations.

The military released its statement Friday after a meeting of its Supreme Council, on a day protest organizers predicted the largest demonstrations since the start of the popular uprising last month.

The military statement said the army will ensure that reforms proposed by Mr. Mubarak are carried out as planned, including a the eventual lifting of 30-year-old emergency laws that enabled the government to keep tight control on Egyptian citizens.  The statement also promised that the presidential election scheduled for September will be free and fair.  The military urged protesters to return to their homes.

It is not yet clear what effect the statement will have on the tens of thousands of protesters packed into Cairo's Tahrir Square and other parts of the city.  The huge crowd continued to build after Friday prayers ....
More on links
 
Now its been reported that Mubarak has left for a palace on the Red Sea. Any bets on his NOT returing?
 
Jim Seggie said:
Now its been reported that Mubarak has left for a palace on the Red Sea. Any bets on his NOT returing?

I'm in......

(reprinted as per fair use)
Hosni Mubarak and his family have left Cairo. The AFP's source said it wasn't clear whether the embattled autocrat had left the country or was headed to his villa in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. During yesterday's speech refusing to resign, Mubarak said, he would not leave Egyptian soil until he was "buried under it." [AFP via Inquirer Politics] original article here: http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/02/hosni_mubarak_has_left_cairo.html

He might want to watch what he says, certainly there are a few folks that would be more than happy to take him up on being buried.  :facepalm:
 
Jim Seggie said:
Now its been reported that Mubarak has left for a palace on the Red Sea. Any bets on his NOT returing?
Coming up next - ANOTHER address to the nation:
The  Egyptian presidency is to make an "urgent and important" statement shortly, state television said on Friday, after a ruling party spokesman confirmed the president had left Cairo for Sharm el-Sheikh.

"An important and urgent statement will be made by the presidency of the republic shortly," state television said.

A spokesman for the ruling National Democratic Party said on Friday that Egypt's embattled President Hosni Mubarak was no longer in Cairo.

"He is in Sharm el-Sheikh," said Mohammed Abdellah after another source close to the government told AFP that the veteran ruler and his family had quit Cairo ....

Also, this tidbit from state-run Ahram.org:
Maj. Gen. Safwat El-Zayat, a former senior official of Egypt’s General Intelligence and member of the Egyptian Council of Foreign Affairs, asserted, in an interview with Ahram Online, that the address delivered by President Mubarak last night was formulated against the wishes of the armed forces, and away from their oversight. He claimed that Vice Preisdent Omar Suleiman’s address, which came on the heels of Mubarak’s address, was equally in defiance of the armed forces and away from its oversight.

Attributing this information to his own sources within the Egyptian military, Maj. Gen. El-Zayat said there was now a deep cleavage between the armed forces, represented in its Supreme Council, and the Presidential authority, represented in both President Mubarak and his Vice President, Omar Suleiman.

According to El-Zayat, communiqué #2 issued this morning by the Supreme Armed Forces Council was not, as many people in Egypt and elsewhere understood it, an affirmation of the addresses of Mubarak and Suleiman, but rather an attempt to avoid an open conflict, while at the same time underlining that the army will act as guarantor for the transition to full democracy. He adivced that people should listen carefully to the anticipated communique #3.
 
From BBC World News Service:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

Egypt army vow on emergency rule

No need to reload, updates automatically.
Follow @BBCWorld on Twitter

BREAKING NEWS: Vice-President Suleiman: Hosni Mubarak stepping down as president of Egypt.
1612: Full statement from Vice-President Suleiman: "In the name of God the merciful, the compassionate, citizens, during these very difficult circumstances Egypt is going through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down from the office of president of the republic and has charged the high council of the armed forces to administer the affairs of the country. May God help everybody."
1611: It's taken 18 days of mass demonstrations. Mr Mubarak gave three televised statements in which he offered some concessions, but the protesters refused to be appeased.
1608: This is the moment the protesters have been waiting for. Mr Mubarak is stepping down after 30 years as Egypt's head of state.
1607: State TV says Mr Mubarak has handed over responsibility for running the nation's affairs to the higher military council.
1606: Tahrir Square has erupted - pictures show cheering crowds waving flags in the dark.
1604: The vice-president made a very brief televised statement. He said Mr Mubarak was stepping down for the benefit of the republic.

Twitter updates all the time, you may see something different on the link
 
This from Talking Points Memo:
Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman has just read a statement saying President Hosni Mubarak has stepped down as president, ending his 30-year rule. Suleiman said that the higher council of the armed forces will lead the nation.

Earlier on Friday, The New York Times reported that the Egyptian military "appeared to assert its leadership... amid growing indications that President Hosni Mubarak was yielding all power." The Associated Press reported that Mubarak had left Cario for the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, where he has a palace, and often spends time ....

.... and this from AP:
Egypt's vice president says Hosni Mubarak has resigned as president and handed control to the military.

Car horns were heard around Cairo in celebration after Vice President Omar Suleiman made the announcement on national TV on Friday.

"In these difficult circumstances that the country is passing through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to leave the position of the presidency," Suleiman said. He has commissioned the armed forces council to direct the issues of the state."

Also, check out screen captures from AlJazz English online attached.
 
- edited to add Tantawi info links -
Even the Wikipedia page is talking about Mubarak's presidency in past tense.  ;D

This appears to be an important chap to keep an eye on now.
tantawy.gif

225px-Field_Marshal_Mohamed_Hussein_Tantawi_2002.jpg

- COMMANDER -IN- CHIEF OF THE ARMED FORCES, MINISTER OF DEFENSES AND MILITARY PRODUCTION, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi (links to official EGY bio)
- Wikipedia bio (usual Wikipedia caveats apply) - already listed as "acting president" **
- Reuters FactBox on Tantawi


The following is shared in accordance with the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright  Act.

AlJazeera English:
Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian president, has resigned from his post, handing over power to the armed forces.

Omar Suleiman, the vice-president, announced in a televised address that the president was "waiving" his office, and had handed over authority to the Supreme Council of the armed forces.

Suleiman's short statement was received with a roar of approval and by celebratory chanting and flag-waving from a crowd of hundreds of thousands in Cairo's Tahrir Square, as well by pro-democracy campaigners who attended protests across the country on Friday.

The crowd in Tahrir chanted "We have brought down the regime",  while many were seen crying, cheering and embracing one another.

"Tonight, after all of these weeks of frustration, of violence, of intimidation ... today the people of Egypt undoubtedly [feel they] have been heard, not only by the president, but by people all around the world," our correspondent at Tahrir Square reported, following the announcement.

Pro-democracy activists in the Egyptian capital had marched on the presidential palace and state television buildings on Friday, the 18th consecutive day of protests.

Anger at state television

At the state television building earlier in the day, thousands had blocked people from entering or leaving, accusing the broadcaster of supporting the current government and of not truthfully reporting on the protests.

"The military has stood aside and people are flooding through (a gap where barbed wire has been moved aside)," Al Jazeera's correspondent at the state television building reported.

He said that "a lot of anger [was] generated" after Mubarak's speech last night, where he repeated his vow to complete his term as president ....

BBC News online:
Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down as president of Egypt.

Vice-President Omar Suleiman made the announcement in a brief statement on state TV.

It came as thousands massed in Cairo and other Egyptian cities for an 18th day of protest to demand Mr Mubarak's resignation.

Protesters responded by cheering, waving flags, embracing and sounding car horns. "The people have brought down the regime," they chanted.

Mr Suleiman said Mr Mubarak had handed power to the high command of the armed forces.

"In the name of God the merciful, the compassionate, citizens, during these very difficult circumstances Egypt is going through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down from the office of president of the republic and has charged the high council of the armed forces to administer the affairs of the country," he said.

"May God help everybody." ....

Reuters:
Hosni Mubarak stepped down as Egypt's president on Friday, handing over to the army and ending three decades of autocratic rule, bowing to escalating pressure from the military and protesters demanding that he go. Skip related content

Vice President Omar Suleiman said a military council would run the affairs of the Arab world's most populous nation. A free and fair presidential election has been promised for September.

A speaker made the announcement in Cairo's Tahrir Square where hundreds of thousands broke down in tears, celebrated and hugged each other chanting: "The people have brought down the regime." Others shouted: "Allahu Akbar (God is great) ....

The Associated Press:
Egypt's Hosni Mubarak resigned as president and handed control to the military on Friday after 29 years in power, bowing to a historic 18-day wave of pro-democracy demonstrations by hundreds of thousands. "The people ousted the president," chanted a crowd of tens of thousands outside his presidential palace in Cairo.

Several hundred thousand protesters massed in Cairo's central Tahrir Square exploded into joy, waving Egyptian flags, and car horns and celebratory shots in the air were heard around the city of 18 million in joy after Vice President Omar Suleiman made the announcement on national TV just after nightfall.

Mubarak had sought to cling to power, handing some of his authorities to Suleiman while keeping his title. But an explosion of protests Friday rejecting the move appeared to have pushed the military into forcing him out completely. Hundreds of thousands marched throughout the day in cities across the country as soliders stood by, besieging his palace in Cairo and Alexandria and the state TV building. A governor of a southern province was forced to flee to safety in the face of protests there ....

Initial reaction from around the world, via Reuters:
.... * PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA:

-- "The President was informed of President Mubarak's decision to step down during a meeting in the Oval Office. He then watched TV coverage of the scene in Cairo for several minutes in the outer Oval (office)," White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said.

-- Obama is to deliver a statement on Egypt at 1830 GMT.

* EU FOREIGN POLICY CHIEF CATHERINE ASHTON

-- "The EU respects President Mubarak's decision today. By standing down, he has listened to the voices of the Egyptian people and has opened the way to faster and deeper reforms," Ashton said.

"It is important now that the dialogue is accelerated leading to a broad-based government which will respect the aspirations of, and deliver stability for, the Egyptian people."

"The future of Egypt rightly remains in the hands of the Egyptian people. The EU stands ready to help in any way it can." ....

Canada's initial response?
Prime Minister Stephen Harper says Canada wants free and fair elections in Egypt and respect for the rule of law.

Speaking in St. John's on Friday, Harper said the federal government also wants Egypt to respect peace treaties it has signed and pursue peace in the Middle East.

Harper spoke during a brief visit to Newfoundland and Labrador as news began to filter out that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was on his way out, but before it was confirmed he had stepped down and handed power to the military.

"We are all seeing what's happening," Harper told a news conference. "Transition is taking place in Egypt."

He said what's happening in Egypt cannot be undone.

"I think the old expression is: 'They're not going to put the toothpaste back in the tube on this one.' "

He said Canada would like those in power in Egypt to lead change.

"Get in front of it," he added. "Be part of it, and make a bright future happen for the people of Egypt."

** - Since it's only a wikipedia reference, I won't take it anywhere near gospel that the head of the military is the acting president yet.  I will humbly accept being at least 1/2 right on this prediction from Monday, though  ;D
 
Well, they did it. Lets see how this turns out now. I'm not holding my breath.
 
Thucydides said:
Looks like the only person who will have a say in Mubarak's resignation is....Hosni Mubarsk:

http://blogs.dailymail.com/donsurber/archives/29332

Lots of links in Instapundit today as well....

Love your sources  :facepalm:
 
Military coups can be bloodless.

And from the looks of statements like,
the address delivered by President Mubarak last night was formulated against the wishes of the armed forces, and away from their oversight. He claimed that Vice Preisdent Omar Suleiman’s address, which came on the heels of Mubarak’s address, was equally in defiance of the armed forces and away from its oversight
[post #188 above] the military control didn't just magically happen in the past 20 minutes.


At least the military leadership is Airborne. What can possibly go wrong now?    ;D


Edit: wordsmithing to ease comprehension.

 
  ;D Hooah !!!  (Elections being too far off could spell trouble)   

Who's getting chopped out next ?
______________________________________
End of Mubarak era as protests topple president

CAIRO - A furious wave of protest finally swept Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak from power on Friday after 30 years of one-man rule, sparking jubilation on the streets and sending a warning to autocrats across the Arab world and beyond.

Mubarak, the second Arab leader to be overthrown by a popular uprising in a month, handed power to the army after 18 days of relentless rallies against poverty, corruption and repression caused support from the armed forces to evaporate.

Vice President Omar Suleiman said a military council would run the affairs of the most populous Arab nation. A free and fair presidential election has been promised for September, though some question the army's appetite for real democracy.

Full story at link...
            ___________________________________________________________________________

Who's next after Mubarak?<---link

First it was Tunisia. Then Egypt and Yemen. Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, North Korea, Belarus and Tajikistan could be next. The long list of autocratic regimes that could fall sends shivers down my spine, because they won't go without a fight. There will be bloodshed.

Every year we see new lists of the autocrats, tyrants and dictators who will be toppled, if not today then tomorrow, or maybe in six months or a year. Regardless of the timeframe, their fate is sealed. Not all predictions come to pass, but new lists crop up every year.

TIME Magazine published the latest list of the top 10 doomed autocrats: Hosni Mubarak, Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Sudanese president Omar Hassan al-Bashir, Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, Algerian president

Abdelaziz Bouteflika, King Abdullah and the House of Saud, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko and Tajikistan's Emomali Rahmon.

Article continues...
                                (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)
 
Regarding a possible "revolt of the colonels":
http://forums.milnet.ca/forums/threads/98663/post-1017871.html#msg1017871

From a WikiLeak:
http://213.251.145.96/cable/2008/09/08CAIRO2091.html

...
¶2. (C) A series of recent conversations with academics and other civilian analysts reveals their sense that while Egypt’s military is in decline, it nevertheless remains a powerful institution. (Note: These academics’ expertise in Egyptian politics and willingness to comment on the sensitive issue of the military’s current role makes them valuable interlocutors for us. End note.)..

...XXXXXXXXXXXX noted, the regime has not allowed any charismatic figures to reach the senior ranks. “(Defense Minister) Tantawi looks like a bureaucrat,” he joked. XXXXXXXXXXXX described the mid-level officer corps as generally disgruntled, and said that one can hear mid-level officers at MOD clubs around Cairo openly expressing disdain for Tantawi [emphasis added]. These officers refer to Tantawi as “Mubarak’s poodle,” he said, and complain that “this incompetent Defense Minister” who reached his position only because of unwavering loyalty to Mubarak is “running the military into the ground.”..

Mark
Ottawa
 
Seize Mubarak's money: watchdog
Governments and international banks should seize Hosni Mubarak's assets and hold them in escrow to be returned to the people of Egypt, an international corruption watchdog said Friday.

"What is happening in Egypt today shows there is a major problem with a lack of transparency," said Huguette Labelle, the chair of Transparency International, an influential international corruption watchdog with ties to the UN.

After 18 days of protests, former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak stepped down on Friday, although his exact location remains unknown. His wife and sons are rumoured to have long since fled the North African nation.

His financial assets are believed to be spread across the globe, and as the motions to replace him in a democratic Egypt lurch into action, so too has the international movement to retrieve any financial assets he may have absconded with.

"When there is a dictator who appears to have acquired much more wealth than he would warrant as a salary of a head of a corporation or country, they should investigate immediately because you don't know where those assets are parked," Labelle said.

Labelle spent 19 years in deputy ministerial positions in the Canadian civil service across a variety of departments before chairing the international lobby group in 2005. She is also chancellor of the University of Ottawa and is a Companion to the Order of Canada.

She spent seven years presiding over CIDA, the Canadian International Development Agency, and now calls for international governments and banking institutions to investigate Mubarak's assets and seize any illegitimate funds.

"If there is any evidence of illicit transfers, then you put this money in escrow," she told CBC News on Friday. "It's the people's money. It should return to the people assuming there is a government that will look after it."

$40B stolen?

Reports this week estimated that Mubarak's family wealth could be in excess of $40 billion - a figure that would put him just behind Berkshire Hathaway head Warren Buffett, Microsoft founder Bill Gates and Carlos Slim Helu, the world's richest man.

Those figures were based on numerous estimates, as finding an exact figure of how many funds the deposed leader could even theoretically have access to is as yet unknown. But it's estimated that 40 per cent of Egypt's 80 million people live on less than $2 a day.

A report by think tank Global Financial Integrity released in January found that Egypt is losing more than $6 billion US a year - more than $57.2 billion US between 2000 and 2008 - to illicit financial activities and official government corruption.

"Egypt, like many countries in the Middle East, is a business," said Avner Mandelman, a money manager and director at Venator Capital Management Ltd. "And it's currently a company being restructured.

"All the money that flows into the country is passing many hands," he said. "And those hands are sticky."

On Friday, Switzerland froze any assets belonging to Mubarak or his family. "I can confirm that Switzerland has frozen possible assets of the former Egyptian president with immediate effect," a spokesman for the Swiss finance ministry said.

In recent months, the country - which is shedding its reputation as a haven for hiding assets - has also frozen assets belonging to Tunisia's former president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, as well as those of Ivory Coast's Laurent Gbagbo.

Labelle welcomes moves like that and said it is incumbent upon other governments and banks to follow suit.

"You don't necessarily do this on Day One," she said. "Right now is the stabilization period. But you can't wait two years from now either.

"After elections, that first government should create a commission of inquiry to investigate those who have assets that are beyond what one would expect."

Mandelman expects it would not be difficult, in time, to track most of those funds. "Big money has a weight and a magnetic pull all its own," he said. "You just have to follow the money."

A spokesperson from TD Bank declined to comment when asked whether the bank is considering actions similar to those taken in Switzerland to seize assets. "Because of privacy laws and policies we do not comment on, or confirm our clients," Mohammed Nakhooda said.

Similar requests to Canada's other major lenders were not immediately returned Friday.

                                  (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)

Attached: Mr. Mubaraks new flag ;D
 
How the Egyptian security services shut down the Internet. It would be very interesting to see just how we are connected to the wider world, since single points of failure could also be exploited by hostile powers to disrupt our economy:

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/02/egypt-off-switch/

Report: Egypt Shut Down Net With Big Switch, Not Phone Calls

    * By Ryan Singel Email Author
    * February 10, 2011  |
    * 1:15 pm  |
    * Categories: Censorship
    *

The Egyptian government shut down most of its country’s internet not by phoning ISPs one at a time, but by simply throwing a switch in a crucial data center in Cairo.

That according to a February presentation to the Department of Homeland Security’s Infosec Technology Transition Council, obtained by Wired.com.

The presentation — made by Bill Woodcock, research director of the Packet Clearing House — argues that the Egyptian Communications Ministry acted quite responsibly in the procedure it used to cut ties from the net, after the shutdown was ordered by Egypt’s much-feared intelligence service.

“Most of the outage was effected through a breaker flipped in the Ramses exchange, and the rest was phone calls and arm-twisting,” the presentation says. ‘Ramses exchange’ refers to a central building in Cairo where Egyptian ISPs meet to trade traffic and connect outside of the country, a facility known as an Internet Exchange Point.

The report’s timeline also contradicts many observers’ guesses that a smaller internet provider called Noor escaped the initial shutdown because it provided connectivity to Egypt’s stock market and several government agencies. According to the presentation, Noor seems to have been hunted down by the intelligence service, just like many other small Egyptian ISPs.

Woodcock, an expert on internet security and infrastructure — especially connection hubs in developing countries — did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the document. confirmed the document’s veracity, but pointed out that the facts remain scant. What he does know is that his company’s monitoring equipment was shut off, as was equipment from other companies; that the intelligence service did call some ISPs; and that the shutdown didn’t involve manipulation of BGP, a routing protocol, as many had originally assumed.

Most media, including Wired.com, reported that government officials contacted individual ISPs and told them to shut down their networks, under threat of losing their communications licenses.

But the document (embedded below) contradicts that narrative, providing new details on the outage — largely laying the blame on Egypt’s internal security service, while describing the “flip-the-switch” shutdown as a “politically liberal” choice by the Egyptian communications ministry.

That’s because turning off the internet at the center exchange made it very easy to switch it back on, prevented surveillance, made it clear to everyone what had happened, and prevented spyware from being placed on the networks.

Compare that to Tunisia, where Facebook login pages were manipulated — presumably by the government — to grab the passwords of Tunisian activists in order to delete their accounts and protest pages.

The presentation suggests the weeklong shutdown had severe effects on Egypt’s economy, in the short term from loss of commerce, and in the long term from a likely plummet in tourism, and an exodus of call centers from Egypt.

The presentation concludes that the ministry’s course of action in obeying the orders may have some positive effects in the future: “Itʼs unlikely that Egyptʼs communications ministry will ever be asked to flip that switch again.”

Here’s the timeline in the report (verbatim):

    Tuesday, January 25:
    Amn El Dawla, the State Security Intelligence Service, orders the blocking of Twitter, which was largely accomplished.

    Wednesday, January 26:
    The State Security Intelligence Service orders the blocking of Facebook, and DNS is blocked but this is not completely effective.

    This was the second time they had tried to have Facebook blocked, but the previous attempt had been successfully countered by the communications ministry.

    Arrests of people posting to the El Shaheeed and Yom Elsawra 25 January groups on Facebook begin.

    Friday, January 28:
    12:28am – Breakers thrown in international transport and national IXP section of Ramses exchange, 3500 prefixes and 50 Egyptian ASNs drop to 300 prefixes and 25 ASNs. All of the large ISPs are offline: TEData, Link.net, Raya Telecom (owned by Vodafone), and Nile Online and EgyNet (both owned by Etisalat).
    Morning – Further ISPs offline, down to about 240 prefixes, and the intelligence service orders mobile operators to suspend voice service in some areas.

    Wael Ghonim, a Google employee who was running the El Shaheeed Facebook group, is arrested.

    Saturday, January 29 Morning – Mobile operators allowed to resume voice service and international SMS, but domestic SMS remains shut down and under the control of the intelligence service.

    Omar Suleiman is appointed vice president after having been denied that office several years ago. Suleiman had run the Mukhabarat, the General Intelligence Service, since 1993 and Egyptʼs military intelligence service before that. Heʼs most generally recognized in the rest of the world as the coordinator of the extraordinary rendition program.

    Sunday, January 30
    The intelligence service begins astroturfing SMSes on Vodafoneʼs network, over Vodafoneʼs objection: “honest and loyal men: confront the traitors and criminals and protect our people and honor.”

    Monday, January 31
    Tarek Kamel reconfirmed as Communications Minister, while several of his cabinet colleagues are replaced with intelligence service generals.

    The intelligence service continues to hunt down other ISPs, taking down Noor, whose customers include the stock exchange, major banks, the national airline, and government agencies. Only 12 ASNs and 130 prefixes remain.

    Tuesday, February 1
    Morning – Tarek Kamel announces that Internet service will be restored “soon.” In a separate television interview, prime minister Ahmed Shafiq is asked when and replies “within 24 hours.”
    The intelligence service continues to shut down remaining ISPs, and continues astroturfing SMSes:
    “Egypt’s youth: Beware rumors and listen to the voice of reason. Egypt is above all so preserve it.”

    Wednesday, February 2
    Noon – Internet service resumed, routing converges over the course of an hour.

    The intelligence service continues astroturfing SMSes:
    “To each mother-father-sister-brother, to every honest citizen: Preserve this country because the
    homeland stays forever.”
    “A sweeping demonstration starting at noon on Wednesday from the Mustafa Mahmoud square in Mohandessin to support president Mubarak.”

    Thursday, February 3
    OECD estimates the outage cost the Egyptian telecom sector a minimum of $90M.
    Forbes ups that estimate to $110M, noting that the OECD had not included call-center revenue.
    Omar Suleiman says the economic impact on the tourism industry alone is “at least $1B.”

    Saturday, February 5
    All SMS services restored.
    Tarek Kamel calls a meeting of call-center executives to try to assess the scale of losses. Vodafone, for instance, relocated hundreds of call-center jobs from Egypt to New Zealand during the prior week.

Illustration: Screenshot from a presentation to a DHS internet committee on Egypt’s January 2011 internet shutdown
 
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