Food Price Crisis and Afghanistan

[Hotspur]

I was just watching the news on CBC and saw a report on skyrocketing food prices worldwide, how rice had gone up 30% and was expected to keep climing in the coming months.  The report mentioned afghanistan as one of the countries that may be hardest hit by this crisis.

Things are already getting downright 'revolutionary' in countries like Haiti, where violence is erupting over food prices.  My food for thought here is what kind of damage could a food crisis have on our headway in Afghanistan, and what do you think is the best way we should address it as part of a strategy for success in the region.

It is a troubling situation to me, because hungry men are easy targets for recruitment into revolutionary armies or insurgencies, and the promise of food for their families could swell the ranks of Taliban if the crisis gets as abd as they are saying.  My only thought so far is that if we could be proactive enough there is a chance to convince poppy farmers to start growing food for their nation instead of seeds to make narcotics.  I know that doesn't sound likely, but if world food prices keep rising it may actually begin to be a viable alternative to the drug trade in Afghanistan.  If we act on this crisis, and get ahead of it, we may be able to help secure the food supply in that country, provide a solid basis for the Afghani economy and also deprive the Taliban of potentially fertile recruiting opportunities.

Anyways let me know your thoughts, when I heard of this food crisis it immediately made me thing that soemthign so basic could actually undermine everything we have done up to this point.  So enough of my musing let me know if you think I'm all wet   

Edit to include link to CBC info:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/food/prices.html

 

[Harris]

And the Biofuel proponents will only make it worse IMO.  No matter what we do, we lose.

 

[a_majoor]

The immediate way to stop the crisis is to ban the burning of food as fuel (i.e. Ethanol and Biodiesel made from palm oil and other virgin vegetable products).

I suspect that people in Afghanistan can actually weather the storm, since much of the economy is rural and agrarian; it is the city dwellers who will be in trouble. To help out, improved agricultural techniques like drip irrigation need to be introduced on a very wide scale (and not only in Afghanistan BTW). any way to reduce "inputs" of fertilizer and pesticides should also be encouraged world wide, since these are petroleum based products, reducing the demand for them will take some of the pressure off global oil prices as well.

 

[geo]

some of the shortages are artificial.
Rice is being hoarded on the border & only being "smuggled" into Afghanistan by blackmarketeers in order to justify the higher prices....

 

[Welshy]

Afghanistan has the potential for increasing its agricultural output. The Kandahar region used to have a very extensive irrigation network and was known for producing great fruit. It was only destroyed during the Soviet invasion of the 1980s because the mujaheddin were using the area for cover. After the people came back the land was in ruins and the only thing they could grow was poppies. If we could invest money to help rebuild the irrigation system the food problem could be alleviated and it take care of poppy production.

 

[Redeye]

And the Biofuel proponents will only make it worse IMO.  No matter what we do, we lose.

Well, if we just sped up the pace of cutting down that irritating forest stuff we could grow enough corn to eat and to burn in ridiculously oversized SUVs.

 

[geo]

The Kandahar region used to have a very extensive irrigation network and was known for producing great fruit. It was only destroyed during the Soviet invasion of the 1980s because the mujaheddin were using the area for cover. After the people came back the land was in ruins and the only thing they could grow was poppies. If we could invest money to help rebuild the irrigation system the food problem could be alleviated and it take care of poppy production.

The Soviets figured that if they could control the people they could control the country.
By destroying the Irrigation system, they figured they would force the population into the cities - which they controlled... so they smashed everything... and smashed it remained until ISAF and we showed up.  A lot of work has been done rebuilding - having the afghans dig & repair their own irrigation chanels..... trouble is - it has to be them that do the rebuilding the stuff - else the TB will tell the people that we are there to occupy the land - planning to stay.

 

[Welshy]

Thanks, I actually didn't know if there was any reconstruction being done.

 

[vonGarvin]

And the Biofuel proponents will only make it worse IMO.  No matter what we do, we lose.

See last Saturday's National Post.  There is an excellent first section article about Biofuels, and the adverse effect it has not only on food prices, but also the environment.
As stated so often here and elsewhere, the net "GHG" that results from Biofuels exceeds that of fossil fuels.  This is mostly due to production.  Yes, the hippy is correct that your SUV emits less "GHG" when burning ethanol, but tell that hippy that producing gasoline produces much less "GHG", and when added to the burning fuel of your SUV, fossil fuels are better, "man".  Then offer him a hit of your weed.  Then take him out for munchies.  They like that.

 

[time expired]

Part of the food cost problem is the result of the lefties/socialist
typical knee jerk reaction to the so called global warming crisis.
All over the western world governments were jumping on the
alternative energy bandwagon,and as so often the case they had
not done their sums.Farmers all over the world have been
encouraged to get out of foodstuff production and get into
the production of biofuels often with government subsidies
or higher prices payed by the private sector for these products.
One does not have to be a rocket scientist to see that would
lead to less foodstuff production and result in higher world
food prices.However those in government seemed to have missed
it,why am I not surprised?.
                              Regards

 

[The Bread Guy]

Food prices appear to be currently leading to a certain crankiness in AFG-PAK relations.....:  "Pakistani and Afghan border security forces exchanged fire on Monday after the Pakistani forces tried to stop 'smuggling of flour' to the neighboring country, officials said.  Officials at the Pakistani border city of Chaman in southwestern Balochistan said that both sides started firing at 7:15 a.m. which continued till 11 a.m.  There was no report of any casualty.  The firing was stopped after senior officials of the two countries held talks, officials said.  Officials said that the Pakistani forces tried to stop three vehicles loaded with flour from heading to Afghanistan. "But when they did not stop the forces started firing to stop them," they added.  Witnesses said that two vehicles managed to cross the border into Afghanistan while one smuggler left his vehicle and escaped...."

Not entirely a new problem, either....

Quqnoos.com, 7 Apr 08:  "Border troops say they have arrested hundreds in fight against flour smugglers.  PAKISTAN’S Frontier Corps (FC) says it has seized about 90,000 bags of flour from smugglers trying to bring the food into Afghanistan during the last 10 days of March.  Since the government declared flour smuggling illegal, hundreds of smugglers have been arrested, a government statement said Saturday (April 5).  Last week in the Mohmand Agency, the FC seized 500 bags of flour in one day, which amounts to about 30,000kg of wheat, exposing a flour-smuggling racket that led to scores of arrests ...."

Washington Post, 11 Mar 08:  "....Sakib Sherani, chief economist for ABN Amro Bank Pakistan, blames years of "bad administration and bad governance" for the situation. He said overblown government projections of a bumper wheat crop are just one example of the Musharraf government's missteps. Smugglers are increasingly taking wheat from Pakistan to Afghanistan, where it is in even shorter supply.  "There's a very clear incentive to smuggle wheat at this stage," Sherani said. "If you can get four or five times the price across the Afghan border, why not try it?" ...."

Associated Press, 17 Jan 08:  "....While terror attacks have left hundreds dead, it is flour shortages and rising food prices that will be the most pressing issues in elections next month in this poor nation of 160 million people.  Food prices jumped by about 14 percent in 2007, on top of double-digit increases for the two previous years. Now Pakistanis wait in long lines at state-subsidized stores to buy flour for the flat bread usually eaten with every meal .... The government blames hoarding by unscrupulous suppliers and smuggling of local wheat to Afghanistan and India where it can fetch higher prices. It has set up an emergency food committee that sends millers enough wheat every day to feed about 120 million people, according to its chairman, Farooq Ahmed Khan. About 5,000 paramilitary forces now guard flour mills and escort supply trucks....."