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US, NATO Outta Afghanistan 2021

daftandbarmy

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This will be interesting to watch over the next year or so. Trump planned to leave too, by May this year, so it's not a party political thing....

Joe Biden gives up on the war in Afghanistan, leaving a weak ally​

American troops are set to leave by September 11th, 20 years after they arrived. Will the Taliban return to power?


THE FIRST American forces to enter Afghanistan in 2001 arrived on September 26th when a CIA team dropped into the Panjshir Valley in the north of the country. At the peak of the war a decade later, America had more than 100,000 troops battling the Taliban. Another decade on, all of them will be gone and the longest war in American history will be over—for the Americans, at least. President Joe Biden has decided to withdraw all American forces from Afghanistan by September 11th 2021, the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks which prompted America to invade in the first place. An official said on April 13th that the president would announce the move the following day.

Mr Biden had inherited a peace deal from his predecessor, Donald Trump. In February 2020 Mr Trump’s administration had signed an agreement with the Taliban in which America committed to reducing forces and ultimately withdrawing from the country entirely by May 1st of this year in exchange for Taliban commitments to break with al-Qaeda and discuss a political settlement with the Afghan government in Kabul.

There is little sign that the Taliban have delivered on either count. A report by America’s Treasury department in January noted that al-Qaeda members remained “embedded with the Taliban”, and on April 12th the group said it would not attend a forthcoming American-backed meeting in Turkey that would have discussed, among other things, the formation of an interim Afghan government that included the Taliban. Ashraf Ghani, Afghanistan’s president, released 5,000 Taliban prisoners last year, notes Lisa Curtis, who oversaw American policy on Afghanistan in the Trump administration, and is now an expert at the Centre for a New American Security, a think-tank. “He got practically nothing in return, except an increase in Taliban violence and a demand for more Taliban prisoners to be released.”

Despite all this, Mr Biden had already said that he “could not picture” American troops remaining in Afghanistan beyond the end of this year. His military advisers had warned him that the Taliban, who have made important battlefield gains in recent months, would probably take over the country if America were to leave. General Mark Milley, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, reportedly told the president that women’s rights would go “back to the stone age”.
Others retorted that Afghanistan was no longer a vital interest, with al-Qaeda weakened, the terrorist threat greater in the Middle East, and other challenges—above all, the one from China in the Pacific—more deserving of American attention and resources. In the end, Mr Biden, who as vice-president lobbied against Barack Obama’s surge of forces to Afghanistan in 2009-10, sided with the latter group.

Officially, America has around 2,500 troops remaining in Afghanistan, though the true number is thought to be slightly higher, and that force is supplemented by several thousand private contractors. They will begin an “orderly drawdown” before May 1st and complete it by September 11th. Mr Biden’s hope may be that by announcing a clear end date, he can dissuade the Taliban from attacking American forces over the summer. Yet the certainty of America’s departure also removes any incentive for the Taliban to make concessions to supporters of the current Afghan state.

Once America—and, crucially, its warplanes—leave, the Taliban will be able to press their advantage. That does not mean the state will collapse at once, but it will struggle to stave off the insurgents’ advances. John Sopko, America’s Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, told Congress in 2020 that the Afghan armed forces remained “a hopeless nightmare and a disaster.” In an interview last month with Task & Purpose, a website, he added that the government had “limited capability to move food, ammunition, medical supplies...to units in the field.” An American intelligence assessment published on April 13th noted that the Afghan government “will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support.”

Mr Biden’s move will also create a headache for his European allies. Approximately 7,000 troops from other countries, including 1,300 from Germany and almost 900 from Georgia, are deployed to Afghanistan as part of a NATO-led coalition that trains Afghan forces. In February, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary-general, promised that “we will not leave before the time is right.” In practice, those troops would be unable to remain in Afghanistan without the insurance policy of American air power and other support. Their departure will leave Afghan security forces further weakened, and the government in Kabul more isolated.

America’s hope is that, even without troops on the ground, it can continue to keep al-Qaeda and Islamic State (which has a modest presence in the east of the country) in check through long-distance counter-terrorism, such as special forces and drones. What is less clear is where those forces would be based. One possibility is that the CIA will keep a paramilitary presence on the ground, working with the National Directorate of Security, Afghanistan’s intelligence service. Another is that America will seek to place forces in Central Asia or Pakistan, where it once discreetly stationed drones. “But the politics of this type of basing remains enormously complicated and the administration hasn't figured out a workable arrangement,” says Asfandyar Mir of Stanford University. “Until that happens, al-Qaeda is going to gain in Afghanistan.”

American officials say they will continue “civilian, economic and humanitarian assistance programmes”. They will no doubt be mindful of the lessons of the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, when the Soviet-backed government clung onto power after the departure of foreign troops—but collapsed after the withdrawal of funding at the end of 1991. Yet America’s departure will inevitably create a power vacuum with wider implications. “Regional competition is likely to intensify,” says Avinash Paliwal of the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. During the civil war of the 1990s, Pakistan covertly backed the Taliban—as it does, today—while India, Iran and Russia supported anti-Taliban armed groups in the north of the country with money, arms and intelligence. If Afghanistan’s government begins to crumble, regional powers would expand support to their favoured factions to protect their interests and build influence against rivals.

On September 20th 2001, as American forces geared up to invade Afghanistan, President George W. Bush told a joint session of Congress that “this war will not be like the war against Iraq a decade ago, with a decisive liberation of territory and a swift conclusion.” He was right about that.

 

Fishbone Jones

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They don't need us IMO. Afghans can have whatever government they want and are capable of keeping. We have no chance of guiding indigenous tribes to something they don't want. If they don't want Taliban or al Qaeda, they have the tribal manpower to push them out. If they want democracy, they can do that too. We've spent enough blood and treasure, far and above, considering the current state of affairs. We just have to make sure they understand one thing. Create an atmosphere where you start training for and exporting terrorism again and we'll just bomb you back to the stone age without setting foot on the ground. We can hurt them a hell of a lot more by making sure their opium and cannabis don't make it out passed their borders. Simplistic, haven't looked at all angles, might have it wrong, I don't know or
care. I don't want another penny of our tax money going there at all. For anything. People always say the poor people, who will protect them? The country has, throughout modern times, repelled every technologically, militarily and monetarily superior country that ever tried to rule them. They don't need us. They are very capable of taking whatever direction they want to go. That's just my 2 cents.
 

medic5

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Does anyone really think that the provisional Afghan government will hold up if the US leaves? I'm guessing within a decade the country will go back to what it was pre 2001.
 

Weinie

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Does anyone really think that the provisional Afghan government will hold up if the US leaves? I'm guessing within a decade the country will go back to what it was pre 2001.
Optimist.
 

Colin Parkinson

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The west left before and it went to crap. You can tone down the support, but still help out. Regardless in my opinion we have poisoned the well for the Taliban, they never have the power they did have, to many people have some education, to many roads, cell networks and people have glimpsed what can be. The Taliban may gain power, but they have to spill a lot of blood to hold it and they will have nothing to offer when the roads fail, the phones stop working and the hospitals run out of supplies.
 

Weinie

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The west left before and it went to crap. You can tone down the support, but still help out. Regardless in my opinion we have poisoned the well for the Taliban, they never have the power they did have, to many people have some education, to many roads, cell networks and people have glimpsed what can be. The Taliban may gain power, but they have to spill a lot of blood to hold it and they will have nothing to offer when the roads fail, the phones stop working and the hospitals run out of supplies.
Don't underestimate the power of an ideology, backed up by ruthless acts.
 

Altair

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The west left before and it went to crap. You can tone down the support, but still help out. Regardless in my opinion we have poisoned the well for the Taliban, they never have the power they did have, to many people have some education, to many roads, cell networks and people have glimpsed what can be. The Taliban may gain power, but they have to spill a lot of blood to hold it and they will have nothing to offer when the roads fail, the phones stop working and the hospitals run out of supplies.
If there is one thing the taliban is very skilled at...
 

Colin Parkinson

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You can only be so ruthless for so long and the Taliban really don't have much else to offer. If they take over, other than poppies, where else are they going to get funding, China won't have that much interest once the west leaves, except to secure a few routes across the country for roads and pipelines and then they face the same issues as we did. Pakistan cannot afford to prop them up and as soon as the Taliban are in, the Iranians and they will start butting heads again.
 

Weinie

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You can only be so ruthless for so long and the Taliban really don't have much else to offer. If they take over, other than poppies, where else are they going to get funding, China won't have that much interest once the west leaves, except to secure a few routes across the country for roads and pipelines and then they face the same issues as we did. Pakistan cannot afford to prop them up and as soon as the Taliban are in, the Iranians and they will start butting heads again.
So Afghanistan fractures into multi-states, ruled by warlords/ideologies in their fiefs. Not inconceivable, but likely non-workable, in a long term sense either. At some point, neighboring countries will be forced to intercede, if only to quell regional domestic disturbances. And then we ratchet up to the grand strategic once again.
 

Altair

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So Afghanistan fractures into multi-states, ruled by warlords/ideologies in their fiefs. Not inconceivable, but likely non-workable, in a long term sense either. At some point, neighboring countries will be forced to intercede, if only to quell regional domestic disturbances. And then we ratchet up to the grand strategic once again.
Somalia is a apt comparison.
 

daftandbarmy

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So Afghanistan fractures into multi-states, ruled by warlords/ideologies in their fiefs. Not inconceivable, but likely non-workable, in a long term sense either. At some point, neighboring countries will be forced to intercede, if only to quell regional domestic disturbances. And then we ratchet up to the grand strategic once again.

Oh, I thought you were talking about Europe there for a minute ;)
 

Colin Parkinson

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Iranian view on the Taliban surge
 

daftandbarmy

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I hope they're reinforcing the roofs of the embassies to take helicopters....

Taliban show off heavy weapons captured from Afghan army​

One by one, the Taliban has been taking over areas in a number of provinces in northern Afghanistan in recent weeks, local officials told CNN. The Taliban says it has taken control of 90 districts across the country since the middle of May. Some were seized without a single shot fired. CNN's Nic Robertson reports.
Source: CNN

 

CBH99

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You can only be so ruthless for so long and the Taliban really don't have much else to offer. If they take over, other than poppies, where else are they going to get funding, China won't have that much interest once the west leaves, except to secure a few routes across the country for roads and pipelines and then they face the same issues as we did. Pakistan cannot afford to prop them up and as soon as the Taliban are in, the Iranians and they will start butting heads again.
Respectfully disagree.

If China is smart, they will secure what they need to in order to access & secure for future use the abundance of rare earth metals that are abundant in Afghanistan.

China already has a near monopoly on rare earth metals, and if they have any strategic foresight at all they will move in and secure the resource we failed to.

I agree the Taliban don’t have much to offer the local population. But most groups & factions of the Taliban can be bought, and that’s something the Chinese can do easily. Those who don’t want to play ball will just get killed off.

If I remember correctly, it is estimated that Afghanistan sits atop a lot of oil. And whether the powers at me like it or not, the world is going to need that for decades to come. Even electric powered cars need oil to be built & operate. So between oil reserves and rare earth metals, if the Chinese are smart they will approach it differently than we did.

They’ll just fund & ally themselves with the winning side, and just kill them if they deviate from the Chinese plan. (I have a feeling China was the discreet supplier of night vision equipment & some other you s some Taliban had, provided via proxies.)
 

daftandbarmy

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If you fail to plan, then plan to (hand over trillions in natural resources to the Taliban) fail:

Afghanistan’s Mineral Resources Are a Lost Opportunity and a Threat​

Without a coherent strategy, Afghanistan’s vast mineral resources represent both a lost opportunity and a threat to national security.

Torn by four decades of war and desperate poverty, Afghanistan is believed to be sitting on one of the richest troves of minerals in the world. The value of these resources has been roughly estimated between $1-3 trillion.

Afghanistan has vast reserves of gold, platinum, silver, copper, iron, chromite, lithium, uranium, and aluminium. The country’s high-quality emeralds, rubies, sapphires, turquoise, and lapis lazuli have long charmed the gemstone market. The United States Geological Survey (USGS), through its extensive scientific research of minerals, concluded that Afghanistan may hold 60 million metric tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons of rare earth elements (REEs) such as lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, and veins of aluminium, gold, silver, zinc, mercury, and lithium. According to Pentagon officials, their initial analysis at one location in Ghazni province showed the potential for lithium deposits as large as those of Bolivia, which has the world’s largest known lithium reserves. The USGS estimates the Khanneshin deposits in Helmand province will yield 1.1.-1.4 million metric tons of REEs. Some reports estimate Afghanistan REE resources are among the largest on earth.

REEs have become essential part of modern technology. They are used in cell phones, televisions, hybrid engines, computers, lasers, and batteries. U.S. Congressional findings have called REEs critical to national security. According to a Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) report, Washington has not had a unified strategy for the development of Afghanistan’s extractive industries.

 

Colin Parkinson

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Respectfully disagree.

If China is smart, they will secure what they need to in order to access & secure for future use the abundance of rare earth metals that are abundant in Afghanistan.

China already has a near monopoly on rare earth metals, and if they have any strategic foresight at all they will move in and secure the resource we failed to.

I agree the Taliban don’t have much to offer the local population. But most groups & factions of the Taliban can be bought, and that’s something the Chinese can do easily. Those who don’t want to play ball will just get killed off.

If I remember correctly, it is estimated that Afghanistan sits atop a lot of oil. And whether the powers at me like it or not, the world is going to need that for decades to come. Even electric powered cars need oil to be built & operate. So between oil reserves and rare earth metals, if the Chinese are smart they will approach it differently than we did.

They’ll just fund & ally themselves with the winning side, and just kill them if they deviate from the Chinese plan. (I have a feeling China was the discreet supplier of night vision equipment & some other you s some Taliban had, provided via proxies.)
I have no doubts China will try to buy them, but will they stay bought for long? The Taliban are a creature of the Pakistani ISI, but they also turned and bite them as well. China has no love of Muslims and will likely piss them off after a short time.
 

blacktriangle

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Yeah, but China isn't stupid enough to try to force their values or government system on Afghanistan. They will seek only enough influence to get what they need out of the country, preferably without use of their military. Or maybe they will send in their military, hold it long enough to strip the country bare, and then leave.
 
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