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Global Warming/Climate Change Super Thread

A lot of food for thought on the current issue Chemical & Engineering News of December 21, 2009

'' Whether or not global warming stemming from human activities is occurring is developing into the great scientific debate of our time. If it’s true, the larger questions are what the climate consequences will be and whether or not there is anything anyone can do about it.
....There is no question that Earth’s atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has increased since the Industrial Revolution began in the late 1700s, with most of the rise coming since 1950.....But here the cordial agreements stop. At the heart of the global-warming debate is whether that warming is the direct result of increasing anthropogenic CO2 levels or whether it is simply part of Earth’s natural climate variability.
 ''

more on http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/87/8751cover.html

And you`ll find more articles on the current issue

http://pubs.acs.org/subscribe/journals/cen/87/i51/toc/toc_i51.html

I did not post the integral article due to copyright.
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from yesterday’s Ottawa Citizen, is an article that seeks to explain the apparent fanaticism of the Green movement:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/technology/Decade+Green+Meanies/2390556/story.html
The Decade of the Green Meanies
Extreme environmentalism has become a harsh secular religion, writes Robert Sibley


BY ROBERT SIBLEY, THE OTTAWA CITIZEN

DECEMBER 30, 2009

As the television cameras panned the enviro-riots in Copenhagen earlier this month, I couldn't help but remember a post-apocalypse movie from the early 1970s.

The Omega Man tells the story of Robert Neville, one of the few to avoid succumbing to a worldwide biological disaster that turned survivors into vacant-eyed albino zombies. Neville, played by Charlton Heston, is besieged by a cult of homicidal mutants known as The Family. Dressed in ragged, hoodie-like garments, the mutants lay siege each night to Neville's fortified apartment, which he defends with an arsenal of weaponry. The mutants want him dead because he represents the old technological culture that destroyed the world.

I haven't seen the movie in a long time, but as I recall, the mutants want to burn Neville at the stake, or something like that, to appease the nature gods they now worship.

Watching the thousands of demonstrators with their cowl-like hoodies, face masks and green banners, marching through the streets of Copenhagen to lay siege to the gathering of world leaders, it struck me that the protesters not only shared the movie mutants' fashion sense, but also a similar fanaticism. If the protesters had broken through the police lines around the conference centre, some world leaders may well have found themselves in Neville's predicament.

Do I exaggerate? I think not. Many who wave the environmental banner, denouncing "climate change" and demanding an end to "global warming," slip dangerously close, if not across, the line that separates the reasoned mind from the irrationalism of totalitarian psychology.

Consider, for example, the children who snuck into a conference room -- waving American flags, no less -- where British politician Christopher Monckton was speaking about the flaws in the would-be Copenhagen Agreement. The children started yelling and shrieking like well-programmed robots. Monckton, however, refused to be intimidated. He denounced the protesters as Nazi-like goons who win debates by shouting rather than through reasoned argument. The unruly children slunk away, flags between their legs, so to speak.

Comparing the "Green movement" to the Nazis is likely to be dismissed as an irrational argument in itself, but from a certain perspective Monckton's remarks aren't out of line. As some observers argue, environmentalism, like fascism and communism, two secular religions of the 20th century, has become another secular religion.

"With the collapse of Marxism and, to all intents and purposes, other forms of socialism, too, those who dislike capitalism and its foremost exemplar, the United States, with equal passion, have been obliged to find a new creed," says Nigel Lawson, a former British cabinet minister. Environmentalists have "turned climate change from being a political issue into a secular religion. Green is the new Red."

- - -

The making of environmentalism into a secular religion replete with its own Green prophets -- Al Gore and David Suzuki come to mind -- has been a long time coming. Nearly three decades ago, sociologist Robert Nisbet warned that "environmentalism is now well on its way to becoming the third great wave of the redemptive struggle in Western history, the first being Christianity, the second modern socialism. The dream of a perfect physical environment has all the revolutionary potential that lay both in the Christian version of mankind redeemed by Christ and in the Socialist, chiefly Marxist, prophecy of mankind freed from social injustice."

To understand this 'return of religion' requires recognizing our own misunderstanding of modernity. It's been widely thought -- and widely taught -- that since the Enlightenment, as the world became more prosperous and better educated, the need for religion has slowly disappeared. This was the theory of secularization, which held that as history "progressed," science would replace religious doctrine and reason would replace dogmatic belief.

It hasn't happened quite that way. Certainly, secularization has taken hold in much of the western world. And supposedly we live in a secular society in which enlightened people reject religious belief.

But only a relatively small portion of the population can claim to be completely secularized. Mainstream Catholic and Protestant churches may be losing priests and parishioners in Europe and urban North America, but polls consistently show that a significant majority of Americans and Canadians still retain an allegiance to otherworldly beliefs and practices and that many believe in biblical end-of-the-world prophecies.

Of course, the resurgent religion with which most westerners are sadly familiar is extremist Islam, or Islamism. But Orthodox Judaism also has an increasingly greater say in Israeli politics, and is attracting a considerable number of young Jews. Orthodox Christianity enjoys a major revival in Russia, where religion and nationalism are finding common cause. Fundamentalist Hinduism is gaining adherents in India. Evangelical Protestantism is expanding around the world, making it the fastest-growing sect within Christianity. The Christian Right, which has long been influential in the United States, is gaining adherents in Europe, where its opposition to Muslim immigration is an increasingly popular response to the multicultural banalities of secular elites.

How is it that in an age of unprecedented scientific and technological achievement, the religious impulse has proven so resilient?

- - -

One answer, says Tom Darby, a political theorist at Carleton University, resides in recognizing "the spiritual crisis of our times." We experience spiritual crises when the categories that traditionally help us make sense of our lives -- Left and Right, conservative and liberal, for example -- are no longer sufficient to account for our experience. Arguably, that's what is happening today.

The "return of religion," including a new secular religion like environmentalism, reflects a crisis of meaning in the sense that many people have turned to religion because the modern project, the Enlightenment project of scientific progress and material betterment, no longer satisfies our desire for meaning and purpose.

Behind our "spiritual dis-ease," says Darby, are all the anxieties and uncertainties of our time. "People always have difficulty with change and uncertainty, and in a technological age there is a lot of change and uncertainty. So people tend to latch on to whatever promises to make sense of the world. This can take the form of religion."

Environmentalism is one of the multifarious forms by which the religious impulse has, as it were, "returned" to the modern world. As novelist Michael Crichton once sardonically remarked, "Environmentalism seems to be the religion of choice for urban atheists."

The Green ethos certainly shares much the same psychology and spiritual longing evident in religious movements. The Green prophets and all those true believers who just know that global warming is due to man's greed and rapacity (read capitalism and the United States) show all the symptoms of perfervid religious fundamentalists. Like other secular religions, environmentalism wants to remake the world according to its understanding of perfection.

In response to the spiritual crisis of our time, the Greens want to recover a lost paradise where mankind can redeem itself through the salvation of the planet, and, thereby, be restored to a state of grace. And, like every religion, environmentalism possesses a priestly elite (Bono and Cate Blanchett, for example), holy texts such as the Kyoto Accord, rituals like recycling and organic eating, and forms of public worship such as Earth Day and Earth Hour. Environmentalism also includes eschatological claims, its certainty of the end-time to come, although this end-time is referred to as catastrophic climate change rather than the Apocalypse or Judgment Day.

- - -

In this light, then, the Green movement clearly manifests the contemporary 'return to religion.' Environmental ideology is to the early 21st century what political ideology was to the 20th century; that is to say, environmentalism has become, in Tom Darby's words, "a crypto-religious fundamentalism." It has stepped far beyond practical and intelligible goals of lessening pollution, cleaning up rivers and saving forests. Now it is into the salvation and redemption business.

One result, though, is that environmentalists have little tolerance for those who question their beatific vision of the new world to come. Indeed, faith-filled environmentalists display many of the tendencies often attributed to religious extremists in their hostility to non-believers. "Whatever the truth about our warming planet," says British columnist Brendan O'Neill, "it is clear there is a tidal wave of intolerance in the debate about climate change which is eroding free speech and melting rational debate."

Indeed, scientists who question the orthodoxy of global warming are anathematized as apostates. As the Climategate scandal demonstrates, scientists who don't share the global-warming faith have difficulty getting their research findings published in prestigious journals. Australian columnist Margo Kingston went so far as to propose outlawing climate change denial.

"Perhaps there is a case for making climate change denial an offence," she wrote. "It is a crime against humanity, after all."

Fundamentalist environmentalism has also been described as a threat to liberal democracy. "When we look at it in a proper historical perspective, the issue is -- once again -- freedom and its enemies," writes Czech President Vaclav Klaus. "Those of us who feel very strongly about it can never accept the irrationality with which the current world has embraced climate change (or global warming) as a real danger to the future of mankind, as well as the irrationality of (anti-global-warming) measures because they will fatally endanger our freedom and prosperity." Arguably, this hostility goes even deeper, exposing a disturbing psychology hostile to human existence itself.

Imagine the results of the "green revolution" envisioned by the most extreme environmentalists. All the food is organic and the atmosphere is in pristine condition. Sounds idyllic, doesn't it? But the world you're imagining is pre-modern, around the 17th century and before. In this world, babies regularly die at birth (along with their mothers), childhood diseases are rampant, life expectancy for most is maybe 40, and a good portion of the human race lives on a starvation diet. Obesity is a problem for only a few. The only reason there's so little pollution (on a worldwide scale) is because there are far fewer people, and industrialization has only just started. Food is organic because pesticides and herbicides don't exist, which means a lot of it doesn't get eaten.

This is the pre-industrial, pre-technological world the Green fundamentalists imagine, a world where humans are one with nature. But to be "one with nature" is to be non-human. By the fact of our self-consciousness, we are "aliens in the cosmos," to borrow novelist Walker Percy's phrase. Only animals, which lack self-awareness, are one with nature. The environmental radicals, in effect, want to return to a pre-human, or animal-like, existence.

Some are explicit on this point. "The ending of the human epoch on Earth would most likely be greeted with a hearty 'Good riddance!' " philosopher Paul Taylor wrote. "Until such time as Homo Sapiens should decide to rejoin nature, some of us can only hope for the right virus to come along," biologist David Graber once said.

- - -

This anti-human attitude, this apparent willingness to endorse the deaths of fellow human beings as a necessary good, is a disturbing element in the environmental catechism. I've occasionally interviewed committed environmentalists, and have been particularly intrigued by those who think the world would be a better place with 20- or 30-per-cent fewer people. Maybe it would, but when I was able to ask what people they have in mind, and what method of disposal they preferred -- starvation? sterilization? biochemical plague? gas chamber? -- I was left with the impression that I'd be one of those they'd happily remove.

Of course, most people who think themselves environmentally aware, those who recycle, donate to wildlife organizations, or cast ballots for "green" politicians, don't think this way. Still, perhaps all of us should be a little more circumspect about going Green. Perhaps we should heed the advice of that great environmentalist, Ralph Waldo Emerson: "That which dominates our imaginations and our thoughts will determine our lives and our character. Therefore, it behooves us to be careful what we worship, for what we are worshipping we are becoming."

Environmentalism, when taken to the extreme, can be disturbingly anti-human. Environmentalism as a secular religion may preach the sanctity of the planet, but it is the West's hard-won modern civilization that is too readily laid out for sacrifice on the Green altar -- a sacrifice that would strip away those conditions that have allowed more people than ever before to enjoy longer, healthier and more satisfying lives than they might otherwise have done.

Robert Sibley is a senior writer with the Citizen. This essay concludes his look at some of the topics that emerged in the first decade of the new century.

Selected Sources

- Michael Crichton, "Environmentalism as Religion," 2003.
michaelcrichton.net/speech-environmentalismasreligion.html

- Margo Kingston, "Himalayan lakes disaster," The Daily Briefing, Nov. 21, 2005. http://webdiary.com.au/cms/?q=node/986

- Nigel Lawson, "What Climate Change?: Interview," BNN.com., http://watch.bnn.ca/squeezeplay/december-2009/squeezeplay-december-1-2009/#clip241633; An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming, 2008; "The REAL inconvenient truth: Zealotry over global warming could damage our Earth far more than climate change," Daily Mail, April 5, 2009; and "Time for a Climate Change Plan B," Wall Street Journal, Dec. 22, 2009.

- Robert Nisbet, Prejudices: A Philosophical Dictionary, 1982.

- Brendan O'Neill, "Global warming: the chilling effect on free speech," spiked-online.com/index.php/site/article/1782/

- YouTube.com, "Lord Monckton on the invasion of Obama's Nazi Youth"

© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen


It may be a bit over the top to compare environmentalism with e.g. Christianity and socialism but I think the comparison to Fascism (and the Nazis) and Communism is not too farfetched. I also think the idea that people long for something – something easier than serious religion - in which to believe is valid.

Others have compared the modern environmental movement to the Children’s Crusades (circa 1212, if such a thing really happened at all) or to something akin to a flash mob in its organization.
 
And this issue of Science Daily includes a report of a study that finds that the airborne fraction of carbon dioxide emissions has not increased in a century and a half. The issue also includes links to other studies that support and contradict these findings, so it is an illuminating if somewhat perplexing read.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091230184221.htm
 
Well that huge fusion reactor in the sky might have something to do with climate:

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/12/the-year-in-sunspot/

2009’s Sleepy Sun Finally Woke Up in December

    * By Alexis Madriga

2009 will go down as the sun’s third quietest year on record, under-shone only by 1913 and 2008.

Two hundred-sixty of the year’s 365 days (71 percent) were sunspotless. Last year saw 266 sunspotless days, while the sun had no spots on 311 of the days in 1913. It was only a very active December that kept 2009 from falling below last year’s mark.

Sunspot activity waxes and wanes in a roughly 11-year cycle, so hitting solar minima isn’t surprising. But what the numbers underscore is that we spent much of the year still in the midst of the deepest, longest solar minimum in a long time.

People keep their eyes on sunspots because their frequency and intensity is correlated with the overall level of solar activity. Changes in the sun’s energy flows can seriously impact conditions on Earth and our immediate environment in space. While a particularly active sun can generate geomagnetic storms that damage satellites and electrical grid infrastructure, a sun as quiet as the one of the last few years could affect the Earth’s climate, although not by much.

“If you want to understand all the drivers of Earth’s atmospheric system, you have to understand how sunspots emerge and evolve,” Matthias Rempel of NCAR’s High Altitude Observator told Wired.com for an earlier story.

The science of sunspots is still murky, despite new supercomputer simulations and theories about their formation. The sun remains filled with surprises.

It’s been an erratic year for sun watchers. At first, it appeared that 2009 might be even quieter than 2008. Eighty-seven percent of the days in the first three months of the year were sunspotless. In May, a big solar flare, the strongest of the new cycle, appeared to augur a return to normal for the sun. Then, August was nearly sunspotless. And in the final reversal, December has been far more active than the rest of the year.

Five regions on the sun were active at once on the 22nd, as seen above. Again assuming the current sunspot holds together until Thursday, there will have been at least one spot on 22 of the month’s 31 days.

But Tony Phillips, a NASA sky watcher who made the chart above and sketched the trend line, isn’t quite ready to declare the solar minimum over.

“If the trend continues exactly as shown (prediction: it won’t), sunspots will become a non-stop daily occurance no later than February 2011. Blank suns would cease and solar minimum would be over,” Phillips wrote on Spaceweather.com. “If the past two years have taught us anything, however, it is that the sun can be tricky and unpredictable. Stay tuned for surprises.”
 
Thucydides said:
Well that huge fusion reactor in the sky might have something to do with climate:
Are you talking about your weather machine again? ;D
 
Technoviking said:
Are you talking about your weather machine again? ;D

I thought we agreed not to mention it until field tests are complete. Finding qualified evil minions is so hard these days.....

Like these ones:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/editorial/outlook/6795858.html

Climategate: You should be steamed
By NEIL FRANK
HOUSTON CHRONICLE
Jan. 2, 2010, 4:28PM

Now that Copenhagen is past history, what is the next step in the man-made global warming controversy? Without question, there should be an immediate and thorough investigation of the scientific debauchery revealed by “Climategate.”

If you have not heard, hackers penetrated the computers of the Climate Research Unit, or CRU, of the United Kingdom's University of East Anglia, exposing thousands of e-mails and other documents. CRU is one of the top climate research centers in the world. Many of the exchanges were between top mainstream climate scientists in Britain and the U.S. who are closely associated with the authoritative (albeit controversial) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Among the more troubling revelations were data adjustments enhancing the perception that man is causing global warming through the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Particularly disturbing was the way the core IPCC scientists (the believers) marginalized the skeptics of the theory that man-made global warming is large and potentially catastrophic. The e-mails document that the attack on the skeptics was twofold. First, the believers gained control of the main climate-profession journals. This allowed them to block publication of papers written by the skeptics and prohibit unfriendly peer review of their own papers. Second, the skeptics were demonized through false labeling and false accusations.

Climate alarmists would like you to believe the science has been settled and all respectable atmospheric scientists support their position. The believers also would like you to believe the skeptics are involved only because of the support of Big Oil and that they are few in number with minimal qualifications.

But who are the skeptics? A few examples reveal that they are numerous and well-qualified. Several years ago two scientists at the University of Oregon became so concerned about the overemphasis on man-made global warming that they put a statement on their Web site and asked for people's endorsement; 32,000 have signed the petition, including more than 9,000 Ph.Ds. More than 700 scientists have endorsed a 231-page Senate minority report that questions man-made global warming. The Heartland Institute has recently sponsored three international meetings for skeptics. More than 800 scientists heard 80 presentations in March. They endorsed an 881-page document, created by 40 authors with outstanding academic credentials, that challenges the most recent publication by the IPCC. The IPCC panel's report strongly concludes that man is causing global warming through the release of carbon dioxide.

Last year 60 German scientists sent a letter to Chancellor Angela Merkel urging her to “strongly reconsider” her position supporting man-made global warming. Sixty scientists in Canada took similar action. Recently, when the American Physical Society published its support for man-made global warming, 200 of its members objected and demanded that the membership be polled to determine the APS' true position.

What do the skeptics believe? First, they concur with the believers that the Earth has been warming since the end of a Little Ice Age around 1850. The cause of this warming is the question. Believers think the warming is man-made, while the skeptics believe the warming is natural and contributions from man are minimal and certainly not potentially catastrophic à la Al Gore.

Second, skeptics argue that CO2 is not a pollutant but vital for plant life. Numerous field experiments have confirmed that higher levels of CO2 are positive for agricultural productivity. Furthermore, carbon dioxide is a very minor greenhouse gas. More than 90 percent of the warming from greenhouse gases is caused by water vapor. If you are going to change the temperature of the globe, it must involve water vapor.

Third, and most important, skeptics believe that climate models are grossly overpredicting future warming from rising concentrations of carbon dioxide. We are being told that numerical models that cannot make accurate 5- to 10-day forecasts can be simplified and run forward for 100 years with results so reliable you can impose an economic disaster on the U.S. and the world.

The revelation of Climate­gate occurs at a time when the accuracy of the climate models is being seriously questioned. Over the last decade Earth's temperature has not warmed, yet every model (there are many) predicted a significant increase in global temperatures for that time period. If the climate models cannot get it right for the past 10 years, why should we trust them for the next century?

Climategate reveals how predetermined political agendas shaped science rather than the other way around. It is high time to question the true agenda of the scientists now on the hot seat and to bring skeptics back into the public debate.

Neil Frank, who holds a Ph.D. from Florida State University in meteorology, was director of the National Hurricane Center (1974–87) and chief meteorologist at KHOU (Channel 11) until his retirement in 2008.
 
political-pictures-barack-obama-earth-hotter.jpg


;D
 
Fraudsters are now going to be caught in their own webs of lies and deception:

http://www.sortofpolitical.com/2010/01/this-just-might-have-potential-to-cause.html

This just might have the potential to cause a few grey hairs...
For some people within the AGW ranks.

James Delingpole, UK Telegraph, lays it all out in Climategate: Michael Mann's very unhappy New Year.

"As I said yesterday, one of our jobs this year is to wipe the complacent smiles off the smug faces of the lobbyists, “experts”, “scientists”, politicians and activists pushing AGW.

This is why I am so glad to report that Michael Mann – creator of the incredible Hockey Stick curve and one of the scientists most heavily implicated in the Climategate scandal – is about to get a very nasty shock. When he turns up to work on Monday, he’ll find that all 27 of his colleagues at the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University have received a rather tempting email inviting them to blow the whistle on anyone they know who may have been fraudulently misusing federal grant funds for climate research.

Under US law, regardless of whether or not a prosecution results, the whistleblower stands to make very large sums of money: it is based on a percentage of the total government funds which have been misused, in this case perhaps as much as $50 million. (Hat tip: John O’Sullivan of the wonderful new campaigning site www.climategate.com)"

Follow the above link to read the ensuing e-mail from Kent Clizbe in full.

For a more complete context, Attention Penn State: Top fraud attorney seeks climategate whistleblowers

Will be interesting to see what, if anything, might transpire from this.

That's a considerable dose of incentive, ya think?


Also...

Paul Revoir, Mail Online, reports: BBC Trust to review science coverage amid claims of bias over climate change, MMR vaccine and GM foods.

"The BBC's governing body has launched a major review of its science coverage after complaints of bias notably in its treatment of climate change.

The BBC Trust today announced it would carry out the probe into the 'accuracy and impartiality' of its output in this increasingly controversial area.

The review comes after repeated criticism of the broadcaster's handling of green issues. It has been accused of acting like a cheerleader for the theory that climate change is a man-made phenomenon.

Critics have claimed that it has not fairly represented the views of sceptics of the widely-held belief that humans are responsible for environmental changes such as global warming."

Hmmm...now I'm trying to imagine the CBC doing something like this.

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!

Yeah, right! When pigs fly!


Lastly...

Check out the website provided above, Climategate.com. Definitely adding this one to my favorites list!
 
Do you think one of the end results will be Al giving back the Academy, the Nobel Peace Prize and millions of $$$????
 
Anybody notice we went from "ice age" 30 years ago to "global warming" recently, but we are seeing more of "climate change" these days ??
Very convenient, as "climate change" can be used for any perceived changes in any aspect of the weather to keep the funds flowing.  ::)
 
Climate change you can believe in:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html#

The mini ice age starts here

By David Rose
Last updated at 11:17 AM on 10th January 2010

The bitter winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last for 20 or 30 years, say some of the world’s most eminent climate scientists.

Their predictions – based on an analysis of natural cycles in water temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans – challenge some of the global warming orthodoxy’s most deeply cherished beliefs, such as the claim that the North Pole will be free of ice in
summer by 2013.

According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado, Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007 – and even the most committed global warming activists do not dispute this.

The scientists’ predictions also undermine the standard climate computer models, which assert that the warming of the Earth since 1900 has been driven solely by man-made greenhouse gas emissions and will continue as long as carbon dioxide levels rise.

They say that their research shows that much of the warming was caused by oceanic cycles when they were in a ‘warm mode’ as opposed to the present ‘cold mode’.

This challenge to the widespread view that the planet is on the brink of an irreversible catastrophe is all the greater because the scientists could never be described as global warming ‘deniers’ or sceptics.

However, both main British political parties continue to insist that the world is facing imminent disaster without drastic cuts in CO2.

Last week, as Britain froze, Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband maintained in a parliamentary answer that the science of global warming was ‘settled’.

Among the most prominent of the scientists is Professor Mojib Latif, a leading member of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has been pushing the issue of man-made global warming on to the international political agenda since it was formed 22 years ago.

Prof Latif, who leads a research team at the renowned Leibniz  Institute at Germany’s Kiel University, has developed new methods for measuring ocean temperatures 3,000ft beneath the surface, where the cooling and warming cycles start.

He and his colleagues predicted the new cooling trend in a paper published in 2008 and warned of it again at an IPCC conference in Geneva last September.

Last night he told The Mail on Sunday: ‘A significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles – perhaps as much as 50 per cent.

'They have now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this may well last two decades or longer.

‘The extreme retreats that we have seen in glaciers and sea ice will come to a halt. For the time being, global warming has paused, and there may well be some cooling.’

As Europe, Asia and North America froze last week, conventional wisdom insisted that this was merely a ‘blip’ of no long-term significance.

Though record lows were experienced as far south as Cuba, where the daily maximum on beaches normally used for winter bathing was just 4.5C, the BBC assured viewers that the big chill was merely short-term ‘weather’ that had nothing to do with ‘climate’, which was still warming.

The work of Prof Latif and the other scientists refutes that view.

On the one hand, it is true that the current freeze is the product of the ‘Arctic oscillation’ – a weather pattern that sees the development of huge ‘blocking’ areas of high pressure in northern latitudes, driving polar winds far to the south.


Meteorologists say that this is at its strongest for at least 60 years.

As a result, the jetstream – the high-altitude wind that circles the globe from west to east and normally pushes a series of wet but mild Atlantic lows across Britain – is currently running not over the English Channel but the Strait of Gibraltar.

However, according to Prof Latif and his colleagues, this in turn relates to much longer-term shifts – what are known as the Pacific and Atlantic ‘multi-decadal oscillations’ (MDOs).

For Europe, the crucial factor here is the temperature of the water in the middle of the North Atlantic, now several degrees below its average when the world was still warming.

But the effects are not confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Prof Anastasios Tsonis, head of the University of Wisconsin Atmospheric Sciences Group, has recently shown that these MDOs move together in a synchronised way across the globe, abruptly flipping the world’s climate from a ‘warm mode’ to a ‘cold mode’ and back again in 20 to 30-year cycles.

'They amount to massive rearrangements in the dominant patterns of the weather,’ he said yesterday, ‘and their shifts explain all the major changes in world temperatures during the 20th and 21st Centuries.

'We have such a change now and can therefore expect 20 or 30 years of cooler temperatures.’

Prof Tsonis said that the period from 1915 to 1940 saw a strong warm mode, reflected in rising temperatures.

Pictures of the snow in Tiananmen Square in Beijing, China, last week show the city is the coldest it has been since 1970

But from 1940 until the late Seventies, the last MDO cold-mode era, the world cooled, despite the fact that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere continued to rise.

Many of the consequences of the recent warm mode were also observed 90 years ago.

For example, in 1922, the Washington Post reported that Greenland’s glaciers were fast disappearing, while Arctic seals were ‘finding the water too hot’.

It interviewed a Captain Martin Ingebrigsten, who had been sailing the eastern Arctic for 54 years: ‘He says that he first noted warmer conditions in 1918, and since that time it has gotten steadily warmer.

'Where formerly great masses of ice were found, there are now moraines, accumulations of earth and stones. At many points where glaciers formerly extended into the sea they have entirely disappeared.’

As a result, the shoals of fish that used to live in these waters had vanished, while the sea ice beyond the north coast of Spitsbergen in the Arctic Ocean had melted.

Warm Gulf Stream water was still detectable within a few hundred miles of the Pole.
In contrast, Prof Tsonis said, last week 56 per cent of the surface of the United States was covered by snow.

‘That hasn’t happened for several decades,’ he pointed out. ‘It just isn’t true to say this is a blip. We can expect colder winters for quite a while.’

He recalled that towards the end of the last cold mode, the world’s media were preoccupied by fears of freezing.

For example, in 1974, a Time magazine cover story predicted ‘Another Ice Age’, saying: ‘Man may be somewhat responsible – as a result of farming and fuel burning [which is] blocking more and more sunlight from reaching and heating the Earth.’

Prof Tsonis said: ‘Perhaps we will see talk of an ice age again by the early 2030s, just as the MDOs shift once more and temperatures begin to rise.’

Like Prof Latif, Prof Tsonis is not a climate change ‘denier’. There is, he said, a measure of additional ‘background’ warming due to human activity and greenhouse gases that runs across the MDO cycles.

'This isn't just a blip. We can expect colder winters for quite a while'
But he added: ‘I do not believe in catastrophe theories. Man-made warming is balanced by the natural cycles, and I do not trust the computer models which state that if CO2 reaches a particular level then temperatures and sea levels will rise by a given amount.

'These models cannot be trusted to predict the weather for a week, yet they are running them to give readings for 100 years.’

Prof Tsonis said that when he published his work in the highly respected journal Geophysical Research Letters, he was deluged with ‘hate emails’.

He added: ‘People were accusing me of wanting to destroy the climate, yet all I’m interested in is the truth.’

He said he also received hate mail from climate change sceptics, accusing him of not going far enough to attack the theory of man-made warming.

The work of Profs Latif, Tsonis and their teams raises a crucial question: If some of the late 20th Century warming was caused not by carbon dioxide but by MDOs, then how much?

Tsonis did not give a figure; Latif suggested it could be anything between ten and 50 per cent.

Other critics of the warming orthodoxy say the role played by MDOs is even greater.

William Gray, emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University, said that while he believed there had been some background rise caused by greenhouse gases, the computer models used by advocates of man-made warming had hugely exaggerated their effect.

Dr David Viner stands by his claim that snow will become an 'increasingly rare event'

According to Prof Gray, these distort the way the atmosphere works. ‘Most of the rise in temperature from the Seventies to the Nineties was natural,’ he said. ‘Very little was down to CO2 – in my view, as little as five to ten per cent.’

But last week, die-hard warming advocates were refusing to admit that MDOs were having any impact.

In March 2000, Dr David Viner, then a member of the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, the body now being investigated over the notorious ‘Warmergate’ leaked emails, said that within a few years snowfall would become ‘a very rare and exciting event’ in Britain, and that ‘children just aren’t going to know what snow is’.

Now the head of a British Council programme with an annual £10 million budget that raises awareness of global warming among young people abroad, Dr Viner last week said he still stood by that prediction: ‘We’ve had three weeks of relatively cold weather, and that doesn’t change anything.

'This winter is just a little cooler than average, and I still think that snow will become an increasingly rare event.’

The longer the cold spell lasts, the harder it may be to persuade the public of that assertion.


And for the mathematically inclined:

http://ragingtory.blogspot.com/2010/01/complete-and-total-disproval-of-agw.html

The complete and total disproval of AGW.

All done in one single paragraph. Check this out:


Absolute temp of Earth in degrees K = about 300 Kelvin (273 Kelvin is 0 C. 373 Kelvin is 100 C)
Solar constant at LIA = 1363.5 watts/ meter squared
Solar constant now = 1367.0 watts/ meter squared
delta = 3.5 watts.
temp delta solar = 3.5/1363.5*300 = 0.77 degrees
IPCC estimated temp change from LIA to now = 1.10 degrees
delta due to ALL other heat source variables COMBINED = 0.33 degrees
IPCC claim that human generated CO2 accounts for 3.7 watts = false by at least one order of magnitude

Done, one paragraph. Really though the full explanation with all the charts and graphs is here:

Visit Knowledge Drift to find out the full math and explanation.
 
Sheltering the guilty:

http://dailycaller.com/2010/01/12/climategate-professor-michael-mann-protected-to-maximum-extent-by-penn-state-policy/

Climategate’ professor Michael Mann protected ‘to maximum extent’ by Penn State policy
By Scott Ott  01/12/10 at 2:43 am

  The Old Main administrative building at the Pennsylvania State University.It ultimately falls to one man to decide if we ever see headlines that shout: “Penn State Climate Prof Fudged Facts to Fetch Funding”, or perhaps “Nittany Lyin’: Penn State’s Mann on the Street.”

Henry “Hank” Foley, the new vice president for research and dean of the graduate school, will hold professor Michael Mann’s academic future in his hands if an internal inquiry, now under way, sparks an investigation that finds Mann broke university policy.

But results of Penn State’s internal Climategate probe may not come until Mann’s part of the globe really warms up, in May or June. In addition, you may never learn what really happened between Mann and other leading lights in the global warming movement. That’s because Penn State, like other universities, treats such inquiries as confidential personnel matters, protected by policy “to the maximum extent possible.”

More surprising, the initial probe involves a committee of just three, all of whom are Penn State employees with a clear interest in preserving the reputation of a university ranked ninth in the nation in receiving government research and development grants. It may raise some eyebrows to know that no outsiders will monitor the proceedings.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. The perception of integrity in the climate research community will likely determine whether trillions of dollars are pumped into less-developed nations in the form of virtual reparations to atone for 150 years of unequal occupation of the so-called “carbon space” by more prosperous nations.

Still, the public is asked to trust the findings of a secret probe conducted by the colleagues of the accused.

Michael Mann created the now-famous “hockey stick” graph, which Al Gore cited in “An Inconvenient Truth,” his Oscar-winning Powerpoint presentation. Mann also received email from Phil Jones, director of the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit, in which Jones appeared to suggest he had used a “trick” to “hide the decline” in global average temperatures. Another Jones note asks Mann to delete emails that were the target of a Freedom Of Information Act request.

It’s in the context of one of the biggest stories of the decade — a scandal that called into question the credibility of an entire scientific discipline — that Penn State launched its initial 60-day inquiry.

Ordinarily, the probe panel would include the dean of the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences. However, Dean William Easterling recused himself because he was one of the lead authors of the report from the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Easterling and co-authors shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore.

So, the team consists of Foley, plus William Brune, Mann’s boss, who has headed Penn State’s meteorology department for about a decade, and Candice Yekel, director of the Office of Research Protections, who reports to Foley.

If the committee feels the allegations warrant further scrutiny, Foley will appoint another committee — this time five tenured professors who have “no conflicts of interest and are competent to evaluate the issues objectively.”

The ad hoc panel has 120 days to “conduct a prompt and thorough investigation” to determine whether Mann violated university policy. If they think he did, he’ll have 14 days to respond.

Hank Foley alone would determine whether to accept or reject the investigation committee’s findings in whole or in part. Then he would tell Mann’s boss, Bill Brune, what to do about it.

“This is quite a different case than we’ve had in the past,” said university spokeswoman Lisa Powers. “We take any claims of misconduct very seriously … in some cases the people have been separated from the university.” However, she added, “Sometimes allegations are brought forward that have no validity.”

Funding agencies that channel public dollars to Mann’s research would receive the report of the investigation committee’s findings and any disciplinary action, Powers said, but the circle of knowledge could end there.
 
Hmmmm.....

Founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin named the search engine they built "Google," a play on the word "googol," the mathematical term for a 1 followed by 100 zeros. The name reflects the immense volume of information that exists, and the scope of Google's mission: to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful.

http://jr2020.blogspot.com/2010/01/googlegate-google-censoring-climategate.html

Saturday, January 16, 2010
Googlegate: Google censoring climategate
Lawrence Solomon has picked up on Google's apparent censoring of climategate references:

... Google announced an end to its long-standing collaboration with the Chinese Communists — it will no longer censor users inside China.That’s good of it. Maybe Google will now also stop using its search engine to censor the rest of us, in the Western countries.

... in early December, Google began to minimize the Climategate scandal by hiding Climategate pages from its users. By Dec. 17, the number of climategate pages that a Google search found dropped by almost 10 million, to 22.2 million. One day later Google dropped its find by another 8 million pages, to 14.1 million. By Dec. 23, Google could find only 7.5 million hits and on Dec. 24 just 6 million. And yesterday, when I checked, Google reported a mere 1.8 million climategate pages.

The accusations against Google of censorship are wide-spread, involving schemes to elect Barack Obama, attacks on Christianity (key in “Christianity is” and Google will suggest unflattering completions to the phrase), and political correctness (key in “Islam is” and nothing negative is suggested).The bottom line? Google is as inscrutable as the Chinese, and perhaps no less corrupt. For safe searches, you’re best off with Bing.

For more on this, blogger Harold Ambler documents his efforts to get Google's executives to explain themselves. He asks them whether or not Al Gore had influenced their censorship. The responses from Google were less than convincing.

Google, in suppressing Climategate information, exhibits the same corrupt mindset displayed in the CRU email files. In fact, it is complicit in Climategate.

I'm taking up Lawrence Solomon's suggestion and switching to Bing with the hope that Microsoft isn't (or doesn't become) similarly corrupted.
 
key in “Christianity is” and Google will suggest unflattering completions to the phrase


Interesting.  I keyed it in, for poops and giggles, and I get
Christianity is:
...bullshit
...not a religion
...fake
...a cult
...islam
...false
...wrong
...a lie
Catholicism is
...Islam
...wrong
...a cult
...not Christianity
...the true religion
...bullshit
...Christianity
...a false religion
...false
...of the devil

Islam is:
(no fill-ins)
Republicans are:
...morons
...retarded
...ignorant
...insance
...hypocrites
...sore losers

Wow.

And this:
Results 1 - 10 of about 1,750,000 for climategate. (0.13 seconds)
(Those are results for CLIMATEGATE at Google.  For Bing.com:
1-10 of 57,100,000 results
The first hit?
www.climategate.com
 
I wasn't sure whether to post this here, or in the "jokes" or "dumbest thing heard" threads....

UN climate report hurt by errors on glaciers
Thursday, January 21, 2010

A Canadian professor has reported five glaring errors in one paragraph of the world's most authoritative report on global warming, forcing the Nobel Prize-winning panel of climate scientists who wrote it to apologize and promise to be more careful.

It's one of those moments when you just don't know whether to laugh or cry
 
Dennis Ruhl said:
Today - 95.1 million.  I guess they must have questioned their sagging credibility.  Still scares me how a topic can be manipulated for political reasons.

Google hits for "climategate" went up to 55 million, worked its way down to 10 million, jumped back up to 95 million and is now under 2 million.  Yes, it still scares me.
 
Journeyman said:
It's one of those moments when you just don't know whether to laugh or cry

No doubt, the apology/retraction was on Page 37 in super small font in some scientific journal. 

 
To qoute Homer Simpson
"Look Lisa, I have to go outside and shovel 10 feet of global warming."
 
Why would scientists manipulate data and fake global climate change, you ask?:

http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/02/climategate_is_it_criminal_1.html

Climategate: Is It Criminal?
By Dexter Wright

The potential criminality of the Climategate scandal is exactly the issue that is being investigated by authorities in Britain. The British Parliament has convened hearings to investigate East Anglia University and the Climate Research Unit to uncover unethical and illegal activities. As more information is revealed, the whole Climategate affair begins to take on the makings of a good mystery novel. Like any good mystery or crime plot, the web of involvement is widespread.

But in order for a reader to be drawn in, the author must establish the motive and opportunity for the crime to be believable. To understand Climategate, we must start at the center of the web. At the center is the now-discredited Dr. Phil Jones of East Anglia University and the work he orchestrated at the Climate Research Unit (CRU). This is exactly where the British Parliament has started its investigation for possible criminal wrongdoing.

The British investigation, headed up by Phil Willis, M.P., focuses on four areas: data manipulation, data suppression, violations of the Freedom of Information Act, and data integrity. Clearly, the recently uncovered e-mails will play a big role in this investigation. A new thread in this web has appeared recently concerning a separate investigation conducted by the European Law Enforcement Organization Cooperation (aka Europol). Investigators have found evidence of a complex carbon-trading scam on the European Climate Exchange. Just three short weeks ago, three British subjects were arrested in an apparent scam worth billions of dollars. Much of the criminal activity alleged involves tax evasion.

Trading on the European Climate Exchange is open to the world market, but the carbon credits only involve the European Union (EU) nations giving brokers the ability to hide trading activities in other countries and avoid paying taxes. This is known as a Carousel Fraud. Curiously, this thread of tax avoidance is also spun into the tangled web of e-mails from East Anglia University. In one of the e-mails dated 6 March 1996, two members of the Jones Gang, Stepan Shiyatov and Dr. Kieth Briffa, discuss how to avoid paying taxes in Russia:


Also, it is important for us if you can transfer the ADVANCE money on the personal accounts which we gave you earlier and the sum for one occasion transfer (for example, during one day) will not be more than 10,000 USD. Only in this case we can avoid big taxes and use money for our work as much as possible.


This is not an isolated e-mail concerning money. On 7 October 1997, Andrew Kerr of the World Wild Life Fund (WWF) sent an e-mail to essentially the entire global network of the Jones Gang expressing grave concerns that Kyoto would be a "flop" and fretted about the possible economic impact it might have:


It would also be very useful if progressive business groups would express their horror at the new economic opportunities which will be foregone if Kyoto is a flop.



Best wishes, Andrew



The question is, why would the WWF be interested in "new economic opportunities" if the Kyoto Accord were to fail? Aren't they supposed to save panda bears? As they say in Washington, "follow the money." One of the major benefactors of the WWF is the global banking giant HSBC Holdings plc. HSBC is a major trader on the European Climate Exchange. The public stance on climate was voiced by Stephen Green, a Group Chairman at HSBC:


Finding the solutions to climate change requires a concerted international effort involving governments, NGOs, intergovernmental institutions, the public and, of course, the business community. The HSBC Climate Partnership is an example of how different types of organizations can work together and has already been a catalyst for change in how we do business.


"A catalyst for change in how we do business"? Is that a way of saying market manipulation?  By "involving" all of these "communities," is this a collaborative effort or a conspiracy? Is the WWF a member of these "communities"? The question must be asked whether the WWF is a tool of market manipulation?


With $31 billion in carbon credits being traded on the European Climate Exchange, there is certainly an incentive to commit fraud. These trades are dominated by banks like HSBC and energy companies like British Petroleum (another benefactor to the WWF). But how is an opportunity for fraud established? Unlike other commodities, like wheat or coffee, you can't ship a boxcar-load of carbon dioxide to the purchaser. The trades are done strictly on paper. The intangible nature of carbon credits provides the perfect opportunity for international fraud.
 
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