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Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

So, would you say that "Domestically" National Defence is a subset of Public Safety? This is my personal view.

Extraterritorial use of National Defence assets, also in my view, is an External/Foreign/Global affair.
"Public safety" as a general phrase is too broad, like "public welfare", and in peril of overuse to fit parochial agendas. A statutory definition is needed to firmly limit scope. What would that be?
 
If the government intends to respect the NATIO spending guidelines, they life within the CCG will have to change. From the NATO document:



Nobody can be guaranteed that their job will never change, but 'militarizing' the CCG would be a significant alteration of term of employment. I'm no labour lawyer but suspect this has the potential to be mired arbitration and/or court by those who don't want to play Navy.

Internally, we can call anything we want to be 'defence spending' but it seems 'NATO spending comes with rules.
Just going to DFO was major disruption as DFO was a "enforcement agency" and CCG saw themselves more as a "fireman" who does construction. Working on a buoytender is much more like working on a construction barge.
 
It's amazing how all of a sudden we're (allegedly) going to meet 2% in under a year.

Was it just Trudeau holding us back for 10 years?
Have MPs been culpable in this giant lie?

The information available seems to suggest that there was credit on the table that we were not reporting. In addition to the DND budget there were other applicable funds (10 BCAD from 13 departments) not being credited. That would have been a 25 to 30% increase in the reported Defence spend.

The additional costs may not make sense to us but they are being used as credits by our peers. All Carney is doing is levelling up the discussion. He shortened the distance to 2% and made up the difference. The expenditures he is talking about essentially take money from Canadians and give it to other Canadians to work for Canadians. That money can come from supporting unemployed Canadians and employing them in the CAF and Defence industries, as well as the Defence bureaucracy, rather than other bureaucracies. The impact on the economy is a lot less than buying lots of foreign weaponry.

I continue to think that Carney will be looking to get credit for his National Interest investments as part of his 1.5% "soft" dual use commitment to NATO.

2% gets us at the table
1.5% gets us some credit
That gets us to 3.5%

But the hard nut to crack is the 1.5% in the middle - the bit that really generates combat power. That is the one where everybody at the table is going to be fighting about how much is enough and how we are going to get it done.
 
It's amazing how all of a sudden we're (allegedly) going to meet 2% in under a year.

Was it just Trudeau holding us back for 10 years?
Have MPs been culpable in this giant lie?
Successive governments of both Liberal and CPC ilks chose not to increase defence spending. As a percentage of GDP, the last ten years saw increases.
 
Bang-for-buck is going to be a problem, whether we buy European or domestic. Some of what Europe produces is not cost-effective. See here, which suggests we should not rush to buy particular items in Europe unless European countries are mostly all-in on a single cost-effective producer of a system for a capability. Some things produced in quantity cost too much, and some things that are relatively affordable can't be produced in quantity.
 
No. National defence is national defence, we’re just unaccustomed to having to do anything in an armed capacity with CAF within Canada. Historically, in living memory, it has always been in aid of the civil power, but that’s because the scope and nature of the threats have remained within what that civil power, suitably augmented, can deal with.

I’m not equipped to say what a ‘defence-led’ security operation in Canada would look like at senior governmental levels, but if it’s a case of throwing big-picture CAF kinetically at a sustained and geographically entrenched threat on our soil, that’s something that would exceed any precedent in living memory.

"Public safety" as a general phrase is too broad, like "public welfare", and in peril of overuse to fit parochial agendas. A statutory definition is needed to firmly limit scope. What would that be?

Just going to DFO was major disruption as DFO was a "enforcement agency" and CCG saw themselves more as a "fireman" who does construction. Working on a buoytender is much more like working on a construction barge.

...

If I consider the period 1867 to 1914 I see a lot less distinction between maintenance of the peace and war fighting.

Policing was largely a municipal or corporate responsibility. CN and CP come to mind.

The Mounties were originally a paramilitary force organized to manage people that recognized the Crown (Brits and Canadians) and those that didn't (Americans, First Nations and Criminals). They were prepared to fight with both warrants and 9 pounders.

The Militia was called out to assist them when necessary, often to suppress strikes and demonstrations. That usage continued until the 1930s.

The Marine Service of Canada was similarly armed to the Mounties and similarly charged with constabulary and military duties.

In my view both the Mounties and the Marine Service most closely resembled the paramilitary Gendarmeries of Europe. Perhaps there is some merit to the Gendarmerie Royale du Canada label. Although the Northwest Mounted Police / Royal Canadian Mounted Police was contemporaneous to the Royal Irish Constabulary, the South African Constabulary and the British South Africa Police. I could cite a number of other colonial constabularies that danced the line between civil and military. They continued a longstanding tradition that, at least in Britain, involved dragoons patrolling the coasts and countryside imposing order.

In those days it was hard to differentiate between government forces and outlaw forces because both sides were often similarly armed and equipped. And mercenaries abounded.

....

The clear distinction between military and civil forces, military and civil actions, is largely, from what I can see, a function of the post WW2 order.

There are currently some 200 recognized states that have been granted sovereign use of lethal force within defined borders. There are very few places that are not defined by those borders.

In 1947 a lot of those borders didn't exist in the same sense. In many cases the borders were administrative borders with the same regime on both sides. In other cases, especially in areas with strong nomad traditions no borders were recognized outside of city walls.

....

Our newly developing world looks an awful lot like the ancient world.

...

My biggest problem is that those paramilitary dragoons, like the Northwest Mounted Police and the Royal Irish Constabulary, look a lot like the "standing armies" that the Brits rebelled against and rejected in the 1600s and their descendants in America rebelled against and rejected in the 1700s.

Standing armies of paramilitaries might be an efficient way to govern but they do seem to be at odds with the values of classical liberalism.
 
Just going to DFO was major disruption as DFO was a "enforcement agency" and CCG saw themselves more as a "fireman" who does construction. Working on a buoytender is much more like working on a construction barge.
I'd argue that sort of stuff should fall under the Ministry of Transportation. Transport sets the cadence for the highways/airports/railways, why not the waterways - including buoytending.
 
The information available seems to suggest that there was credit on the table that we were not reporting.
Not really.



In addition to the DND budget there were other applicable funds (10 BCAD from 13 departments) not being credited. That would have been a 25 to 30% increase in the reported Defence spend.
Again just because Canada seem to think they some of these issues are Defense, doesn’t mean they make NATO’s definitions.
The additional costs may not make sense to us but they are being used as credits by our peers. All Carney is doing is levelling up the discussion. He shortened the distance to 2% and made up the difference. The expenditures he is talking about essentially take money from Canadians and give it to other Canadians to work for Canadians. That money can come from supporting unemployed Canadians and employing them in the CAF and Defence industries, as well as the Defence bureaucracy, rather than other bureaucracies. The impact on the economy is a lot less than buying lots of foreign weaponry.
I think you’re overly optimistic about any pluses.
I continue to think that Carney will be looking to get credit for his National Interest investments as part of his 1.5% "soft" dual use commitment to NATO.

2% gets us at the table
1.5% gets us some credit
That gets us to 3.5%

But the hard nut to crack is the 1.5% in the middle - the bit that really generates combat power. That is the one where everybody at the table is going to be fighting about how much is enough and how we are going to get it done.

You again seem to accept that the 2% is being met since the GoC says so.
I’d look at the fine print, as without MAJOR changes to the RCMP, CCG and other GoC entities (which will take time and money) they will not be eligible funds that NATO considers Defense Spending
 
...

If I consider the period 1867 to 1914 I see a lot less distinction between maintenance of the peace and war fighting.

Policing was largely a municipal or corporate responsibility. CN and CP come to mind.

The Mounties were originally a paramilitary force organized to manage people that recognized the Crown (Brits and Canadians) and those that didn't (Americans, First Nations and Criminals). They were prepared to fight with both warrants and 9 pounders.

The Militia was called out to assist them when necessary, often to suppress strikes and demonstrations. That usage continued until the 1930s.

The Marine Service of Canada was similarly armed to the Mounties and similarly charged with constabulary and military duties.

In my view both the Mounties and the Marine Service most closely resembled the paramilitary Gendarmeries of Europe. Perhaps there is some merit to the Gendarmerie Royale du Canada label. Although the Northwest Mounted Police / Royal Canadian Mounted Police was contemporaneous to the Royal Irish Constabulary, the South African Constabulary and the British South Africa Police. I could cite a number of other colonial constabularies that danced the line between civil and military. They continued a longstanding tradition that, at least in Britain, involved dragoons patrolling the coasts and countryside imposing order.

In those days it was hard to differentiate between government forces and outlaw forces because both sides were often similarly armed and equipped. And mercenaries abounded.

....

The clear distinction between military and civil forces, military and civil actions, is largely, from what I can see, a function of the post WW2 order.

There are currently some 200 recognized states that have been granted sovereign use of lethal force within defined borders. There are very few places that are not defined by those borders.

In 1947 a lot of those borders didn't exist in the same sense. In many cases the borders were administrative borders with the same regime on both sides. In other cases, especially in areas with strong nomad traditions no borders were recognized outside of city walls.

....

Our newly developing world looks an awful lot like the ancient world.

...

My biggest problem is that those paramilitary dragoons, like the Northwest Mounted Police and the Royal Irish Constabulary, look a lot like the "standing armies" that the Brits rebelled against and rejected in the 1600s and their descendants in America rebelled against and rejected in the 1700s.

Standing armies of paramilitaries might be an efficient way to govern but they do seem to be at odds with the values of classical liberalism.

Right, which is why I said “in living memory”.

As to ‘gendarmeries’, the RCMP at this point are no more ‘paramilitary’ than any other civilian police service. They’re just bigger and somewhat more bizarre due to how many roles they have. There’s some old paramilitary history and heraldry in ceremonial and identity stuff, but that’s it. In a discussion about national defence, think of the Mounties as cops, and you can safely stop there.
 
I'd argue that sort of stuff should fall under the Ministry of Transportation. Transport sets the cadence for the highways/airports/railways, why not the waterways - including buoytending.
That's where CCG started, CCG was a melding of RCAF Crashboat stations and the Department of Marine Transportation.
 
Right, which is why I said “in living memory”.

As to ‘gendarmeries’, the RCMP at this point are no more ‘paramilitary’ than any other civilian police service. They’re just bigger and somewhat more bizarre due to how many roles they have. There’s some old paramilitary history and heraldry in ceremonial and identity stuff, but that’s it. In a discussion about national defence, think of the Mounties as cops, and you can safely stop there.
Their guidon is cool. They have six battle honours (more than some combat arms regiments haha). According to the heraldry, they're technically a cavalry regiment. That's why they have regimental numbers instead of badge numbers.
 
Their guidon is cool. They have six battle honours (more than some combat arms regiments haha). According to the heraldry, they're technically a cavalry regiment. That's why they have regimental numbers instead of badge numbers.
Yup - they were granted the status of a regiment of dragoons, which is kinda cool in the history nerd sense. And I mean, they dismount from a Ford Explorer to fight on foot so it works. Historically their origins are certainly more derivative of, say, the Royal Irish Constabulary than of Sir Peel’s London Met, but in the modern era that’s now all just history.
 
Not really.




Again just because Canada seem to think they some of these issues are Defense, doesn’t mean they make NATO’s definitions.

I think you’re overly optimistic about any pluses.


You again seem to accept that the 2% is being met since the GoC says so.
I’d look at the fine print, as without MAJOR changes to the RCMP, CCG and other GoC entities (which will take time and money) they will not be eligible funds that NATO considers Defense Spending
The definition of what qualifies is found here and reads, in part (highlights mine):

"They might also include parts of other forces such as Ministry of Interior troops, national police forces, coast guards etc. In such cases, expenditure is included only in proportion to the forces that are trained in military tactics, are equipped as a military force, can operate under direct military authority in deployed operations, and can, realistically, be deployed outside national territory in support of a military force. Expenditure on other forces financed through the budgets of ministries other than the Ministry of Defence is also included in defence expenditure."

The same argument arose a few months back when Scott Moe suggested that the CBSA fall under DND and be counted in the 2% in response to POTUS47 whining about the border. It was unworkable then and could be unworkable now for the CCG.
 
Right, which is why I said “in living memory”.

As to ‘gendarmeries’, the RCMP at this point are no more ‘paramilitary’ than any other civilian police service. They’re just bigger and somewhat more bizarre due to how many roles they have. There’s some old paramilitary history and heraldry in ceremonial and identity stuff, but that’s it. In a discussion about national defence, think of the Mounties as cops, and you can safely stop there.

I will stipulate that. However a week or so back the discussion was about managing the gray areas, the seems between the military and the civil that are being exploited by the hybrid forces of our enemies.

I noted then that the Europeans with their paramilitary gendarmeries, which do count towards NATO expenses, might be better placed to manage those threats.

Thet seem to be a subset of the nation's soldiers that have constabulary powers as opposed to constables with military capabilities.

I agree there is a significantly different culture but culture shifts have happened before. Even with the Mounties when Sam Steele's force vombined with the Dominion Police Force and likely when the Marine Service split into the Naval Service and Fisheries Officers. I suggest that CBSA is currently in the midst of a transition.

If NATO doesn't like the Canadian accounting then I am sure they will let know where the gaps are and what it will take to fix them. That's kind of the way audits work. Mistakes are identified and corrections are authorised in next year's budget.

If gaps are identified then new money is easier to justify as a requirement and not a supposition.
 
The information available seems to suggest that there was credit on the table that we were not reporting. In addition to the DND budget there were other applicable funds (10 BCAD from 13 departments) not being credited. That would have been a 25 to 30% increase in the reported Defence spend.

The additional costs may not make sense to us but they are being used as credits by our peers. All Carney is doing is levelling up the discussion. He shortened the distance to 2% and made up the difference. The expenditures he is talking about essentially take money from Canadians and give it to other Canadians to work for Canadians. That money can come from supporting unemployed Canadians and employing them in the CAF and Defence industries, as well as the Defence bureaucracy, rather than other bureaucracies. The impact on the economy is a lot less than buying lots of foreign weaponry.

I continue to think that Carney will be looking to get credit for his National Interest investments as part of his 1.5% "soft" dual use commitment to NATO.

2% gets us at the table
1.5% gets us some credit
That gets us to 3.5%

But the hard nut to crack is the 1.5% in the middle - the bit that really generates combat power. That is the one where everybody at the table is going to be fighting about how much is enough and how we are going to get it done.

Not really.




Again just because Canada seem to think they some of these issues are Defense, doesn’t mean they make NATO’s definitions.

I think you’re overly optimistic about any pluses.


You again seem to accept that the 2% is being met since the GoC says so.
I’d look at the fine print, as without MAJOR changes to the RCMP, CCG and other GoC entities (which will take time and money) they will not be eligible funds that NATO considers Defense Spending

Latest Statscan numbers for DND spending in 2024-2025 is $33 billion, NATO (from the latest Defence expenditure report) pegs 2024 spending at $41 billion. All numbers $CAD. Per NATO, veteran pensions are included so presumably most or all of VAC get's bundled into that. I know it had been mentioned previously that aspects of RCMP and CCG are also included. Not the whole services, but elements of them that do meet NATO definitions, so a lot of our extra spending is being counted already.

Now if CCG is brought under DND, it may involve some ideas of further militarizing to a point where they meet NATO definitions, and I presume of the other department funding is also already included and can potentially include expanded funding in R&D and defence industrial investments. I also imagine there's further funny accounting going on in order to try and boost our numbers without actually, well, boosting our numbers.

To hit 2% we need a bit over $60 billion, we already have something in the area of $10 billion in spending outside of DND that counts, presumably there'll be additional funding that gets counted as defence spending outside DND, and at least $9 billion in new funding to further close the gap. The current main estimates for DND are $35 billion for 2025-2026, so that gets us about $35 + 10 + 9 or $54 billion. That alone will get us close, and hopefully over the next few months, particularly after the G7 and NATO meetings we'll get further clarity on what's coming.

Overall though I think we'll make a a genuine effort to get close to 2% (I'm sure there's some questionable accounting going on), but I have strong doubts about being able to hit it at the end of this year. We won't really know until down the road when there's updated budget numbers both from us and NATO as to what we've actually achieved.
 
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