Guns or Drones or Both?

[Kirkhill]

Drone Wall To Defend Europe? Russia's Neighbors Looks To Thwart Potential Invasion By Boosting Its Eastern Flank

An outmanned and outgunned Ukraine has continued to put up resistance against Russia for over three years now, based on continuous innovation in drone technology. Impressed by the drone tech, European countries are facing a hard choice – whether to invest in a ‘Drone Wall’ or in artillery to...

www.eurasiantimes.com

Pro

A German firm is proposing that a drone wall consisting of 100,000 HX-2 combat drones could “prevent a land invasion of the continent once and for all”. Seeking cost-effective solutions for bolstering Europe’s defense, Torsten Reil, co-head of the German start-up Helsing, claimed that AI-equipped flying helpers, developed by his company, could offer sufficient protection.

“100,000 HX-2 combat drones would prevent a land invasion of the continent once and for all,” Reil wrote on social media.

Company co-founder Gunbert Scherf has called for building a “drone wall” along NATO’s eastern border that runs about 3,000 kilometers long. He contended that such a wall could be “erected within a year.”

Con

However, the naysayers take the claim with a pinch of salt. European defense experts contend that only 100,000 drones cannot address Europe’s security woes and cannot replace soldiers and artillery.

The scepticism around drone technology also stems from the susceptibility of unmanned aerial vehicles to electronic warfare. Ukraine has been deploying a mix of attack UAVs, ranging from light and heavy bomber drones to First Person View drones. The use of fibre-optic drones by Ukrainian forces is not yet ubiquitous. (I wonder what those pictures of fibre would look like if they were ubiquitous?)

Observations

A recent report by the Royal United Services Institute, titled “Tactical Developments During the Third Year of the Russo–Ukrainian War,” enumerates the significant limitations of tactical UAVs.

“Between 60 and 80% of Ukrainian FPVs fail to reach their target, depending on the part of the front and the skill of the operators. Of those that do strike their targets, a majority fail to destroy the target system when striking armoured vehicles. The success rate in wounding infantry is high,” the report states. Reports indicate that drones are responsible for an estimated 70-80% of deaths and injuries in the conflict, according to the New York Times.

Personal comment - a hit rate of 20-40% (the inverse of the 60-80% miss rate) doesn't sound so bad to me. Especially compared to many of the alternatives.
Apparently armoured vehicles need a bigger bomb but the effect on infantry seems impressive. That would seem to mean armoured vehicles are more likely to survive the advance but be stripped of their infantry making them more vulnerable to ATGMs.

Ukrainian conclusions. (Drones and Guns)

The RUSI report also includes input from Ukrainian military personnel seeking more artillery in conjunction with drones, as artillery can be effective even in adverse weather conditions and can be deployed effectively.

Drones are most effective in combination with artillery, the report’s authors found. UAVs serve as forward observers, correcting fire and improving the strike efficiency of artillery systems.

German conclusions. (Drones and Conventional Forces)

The German parliament has been exploring the concept of a drone wall to bolster NATO’s eastern flank defense by purchasing combat drones. But: For “credible deterrence and defense,” in addition to drones, “large weapon systems such as battle tanks, combat aircraft, artillery, and ships are still necessary,” says a spokesman for the Ministry of Defense.

In line with its strategy, Germany is establishing an armored brigade of up to 5,000 soldiers. The brigade will be positioned in Lithuania near the border with Belarus, an important ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Baltic conclusions. (Drones and Conventional Forces)

The Baltic states, closer to Russia, are more apprehensive of an attack by Moscow. They are investing heavily in building deterrence. Lithuania announced in July 2024 that it would allocate approximately 200 million euros for various types of drones by 2030. (Lithuania has a population of <3 million - Canadian equivalent 4.5 BCAD in the next 5 years)

Estonia is also working on upgrading its drones and anti-drone systems. Akin to Ukraine’s domestically produced First-person-view drones, Estonia is working on short-range loitering munitions under the project “Angry Hedgehog.”

The drones will be equipped with custom warheads and will have a range of nine miles. The AI-equipped drones will be guided by artificial intelligence to guide them through the last mile to the target to outmanoeuvre Russian jamming.

The cost will be under 1,000 euros, and will be battle-tested by delivering 1,000 of them to Ukraine. In late March, the Estonian Ministry of Defense announced a €100 million package of support for Ukraine, which includes drones, boats, and medical equipment.

According to the Estonian Defense Ministry, the country will allocate 220 million euros (approximately $238 million) for loitering munitions between 2024 and 2027. (Estonian population of 1.37 million - 10.3 BCAD in the next 3 years. At 1000 euros a piece that equates to about 220,000 Estonian munitions or 6,380,000 Canadian ones)

Drone operators from Ukraine have started training Estonia’s volunteer Defense League (Kaitseliit) beginning in May. Estonia announced a new dedicated drone warfare unit for the Defense League in May 2025.

And the counters

Besides shoring up their strike drone capabilities, the NATO countries that share a border with Russia, namely Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, are also working on anti-drone technologies to protect themselves against Russian swarm drones.

These countries have come together to create an interconnected system of detection devices and defenses, commonly referred to as the Baltic Drone Wall.

Over USD 12 million has been earmarked for the project, consisting of autonomous surveillance systems powered by AI and counter-drone systems. The goal is to have an impregnable border with Russia that cannot be breached by a drone without being detected and destroyed.

Based on the relative investments it seems to me that the locals are betting on it being more effective to kill people than to kill drones. They seem to be betting on the best defence being a good offence.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Both always, because like the "bomber will always get through", technology changes and your uber weapon can become a dud.

 

[Kirkhill]

Both always, because like the "bomber will always get through", technology changes and your uber weapon can become a dud.

When do guns become a dud technology?

Notion about countering AFVs once the infantry have been stripped away.

The Malloy T650 has a lifting capacity of 300 kg and an range of 80 km (empty) and 30 km (max load).
FOG-Missiles (Fibre Optic Guided - Missiles) have ranges of up to 60 km so a FOG version of a T650 doesn't seem unreasonable.

300 kg = 25x 12 kg Javelins with a 5 km range or 6x 50 kg Brimstones with a 40 km range and an active, autonomous seeker effective against moving targets.

Army unveils drone that fires laser-guided missiles — and can fit in a car boot

THE Army has unveiled a jet-powered drone that fires laser-guided missiles and fits in the back of a Land Rover. The Hydra 400 concept can carry three devastating Brimstone missiles like those blit…

www.thesun.co.uk

 

[Kirkhill]

Army experiments with integrating attack drones into artillery formations

New division formation design includes HIMARS, howitzers, and one-way UAVs.

www.defenseone.com

DivArty

HIMARS Battalion (and is PRSM a Div or Corps asset at >1000 km)
M777 Battalion (150 km Ramjets?)*

????? Battalion

• Mortars
• 105s
• launched defects, (sic presumably it is supposed to be "launched effects")
• loitering munitions,
• first-person drones,

The concern is having enough rounds to feed all of these systems.

“In particular, both production rates and price points associated with some of our critical munitions that are out there for our big frames and our big platforms … and based on what has happened in Israel and Iran and the expenditures that are there, what's happened in Ukraine. Our magazine depth right now is not where it needs to be.”

That includes missiles for the Patriot air defense system, he said, as well as Tomahawk cruise missiles the Navy fired off during the Red Sea conflict against the Houthis. The military now needs infrastructure to quickly ramp up production.

In a crisis, the Army may need to jump from producing 500 Patriot missiles a year to 10,000, as an example, and it will need to happen in days rather than months.

*

Sceptre ramjet-powered 155 mm artillery ammo: long range and high accuracy Silicon Valley-style from Tiberius Aerospace - EDR Magazine

With a manpower of around 20 people, all of them scientists and engineers, Tiberius Aerospace adopts the Silicon Valley approach.

www.edrmagazine.eu

 

[Kirkhill]

Estonia's tiny army

1.8 mio population

1 Div with 2 Brigades (more than 50% reserves)
And a bunch of willing helpers in the Estonian Defence League

Estonian Land Forces - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

6x HIMARS
12x CAESAR 155s
36x K9 Thunder 155s

120mm Mortars at Battalion
81mm Mortars at Company

Long Range UAV battery equipped (probably) with Harops and Mini-Harpies from Israel

Estonia plans loitering-munitions unit to hunt enemy air defenses

Inspired by the wars in Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh, the new battery may be NATO’s first.

www.defenseone.com

UAVs and C-UAVs at all levels down to the Section.

How Estonia is becoming a hotbed for drone warfare

Projects include experimental loitering munitions that cost a fraction of U.S. equivalents.

www.defenseone.com

Among the projects linked to Ukraine is the “Angry Hedgehog,” a plan to field a domestically produced short-range loitering munition similar to Ukraine’s first-person-view drones.

The drones will have a custom warhead and a range of up to nine miles, said Hanniotti. They will be equipped with artificial intelligence to guide them the last mile to a target, an increasingly popular countermeasure against Russian jamming.

Hanniotti said the drone will cost under 1,000 euros, and use European-manufactured components. It will undergo further tests in June 2024, and Estonia also aims to deliver 1,000 of them to Ukraine to test their use in combat. Formal fielding may occur next year.

Unknown number of Blue Spear Anti-Ship Missile Batteries.

----------------

Air Defence (Under the Air Force?)

1 Billion Euro LRAD System (Patriot Type) to be ordered
400 Million Euros for 3 MRAD Batteries (IRIS-T)

Air Defence (Army)

2 VSHORAD Battalions (1 per brigade)
Armed with a total of

98 ZU-23-2 23mm guns
209 Mistral SAMs
5 Giraffe

 

[Furniture]

Estonia's tiny army

1.8 mio population

1 Div with 2 Brigades (more than 50% reserves)
And a bunch of willing helpers in the Estonian Defence League

Estonian Land Forces - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

6x HIMARS
12x CAESAR 155s
36x K9 Thunder 155s

120mm Mortars at Battalion
81mm Mortars at Company

Long Range UAV battery equipped (probably) with Harops and Mini-Harpies from Israel

Estonia plans loitering-munitions unit to hunt enemy air defenses

Inspired by the wars in Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh, the new battery may be NATO’s first.

www.defenseone.com

UAVs and C-UAVs at all levels down to the Section.

How Estonia is becoming a hotbed for drone warfare

Projects include experimental loitering munitions that cost a fraction of U.S. equivalents.

www.defenseone.com

Unknown number of Blue Spear Anti-Ship Missile Batteries.

----------------

Air Defence (Under the Air Force?)

1 Billion Euro LRAD System (Patriot Type) to be ordered
400 Million Euros for 3 MRAD Batteries (IRIS-T)

Air Defence (Army)

2 VSHORAD Battalions (1 per brigade)
Armed with a total of

98 ZU-23-2 23mm guns
209 Mistral SAMs
5 Giraffe

Their leaders grew up in the USSR, and USSR 2.0 is right on their border. It makes sense for them to take defense very seriously, particularly compared to a country last invaded in 1812-1814.

 

[Kirkhill]

Their leaders grew up in the USSR, and USSR 2.0 is right on their border. It makes sense for them to take defense very seriously, particularly compared to a country last invaded in 1812-1814.

I'm fascinated by the notion of, apparently, building their army, or at least the professional bit, from the artillery out. Both Napoleonic and Soviet.

I am also intrigued by the way they are spreading the money around.

They secured their coastline with dedicated missiles on wheels.

Air Defence has moved to a priority spend over manned aircraft. Patriot? LRAD and IRIS-T MRAD (3 Batteries) - total spend of about 1.5 BCAD.

Like the coastal missiles that makes sense for a city state in a vulverable location. No space to trade for time.

And apparently the 23mm guns in the manoeuvre brigades are expected to be dual function - keeping the skies clear and managing ground threats. They are all held, along with the ManPADS in two separate battalions, one per brigade. They are supported by 5 Giraffe radars (2 per battalion?).

As they are building their artillery they have bought 9 batteries of 6 units each - 6 tracked and 3 wheeled.

All 9 batteries seem to be, currently, held centrally under one regiment responsible for learning the new kit, developing tactics and training new gunners, both regular and reserve.

Those then can be formed up as three battalions - two tracked with 18 K9s each, 1 bn per brigade for direct support, and a separate mobile divisional reserve on wheels of 12 CAESARs and 6 HIMARS.

That wheeled reserve, I am guessing, could be tasked to support the ground battle, the coastal batteries or the air defence wing.

Fire support includes 120mm mortars for the infantry battalions, 81s for the companies and an assortment of recoilless rifles, including CG84s and AT4s scattered throughout, just like the UAVs. FOOs and MFCs all get UAVs.

They are standing up a LAM battery of Harops and Harpies whose primary mission appears to be SEAD as well as considering a separate UAV unit built on Ukrainian lines with ISR, Attack and CUAS capabilities, including EW.

Most of the infantry, and the gunners for that matter, are made up of volunteers and conscripts.

The professional infantry gets the CV90s and is formed into a Scout battalion. The rest of the regs are the core around which the volunteers, reserves and conscripts are to form. They have to train and organize their trenchmates.

As you say, they are motivated to take things seriously. They will have no choice when the battle comes to them.