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Hamas invaded Israel 2023

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The Associated Press, in The Globe and Mail says they got him "based on years of tracking Nasrallah along with “real time information” that made it viable. He said Nasrallah’s death had been confirmed through various types of intelligence, but declined to elaborate."

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Hezbollah confirms death of leader Nasrallah in Israel’s strike on Beirut​

BASSEM MROUE AND MELANIE LIDMAN
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
PUBLISHED 58 MINUTES AGO UPDATED 13 MINUTES AGO

Lebanon’s Hezbollah group confirmed on Saturday that its leader and one of its founders, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut the previous day.

A statement Saturday said Nasrallah “has joined his fellow martyrs.” Hezbollah vowed to “continue the holy war against the enemy and in support of Palestine.”

Nasrallah, who led Hezbollah for more than three decades, is by far the most powerful target to be killed by Israel in weeks of intensified fighting with Hezbollah. The Israeli military said it carried out a precise airstrike on Friday while Hezbollah leadership met at their headquarters in Dahiyeh, south of Beirut.

The Lebanese Health Ministry said six people were killed and 91 injured in the Beirut strikes Friday, which leveled six apartment buildings. Ali Karki, the Commander of Hezbollah’s Southern Front, and additional Hezbollah commanders were also killed in the attack, the Israeli military said.

Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an army spokesperson, said the airstrike was based on years of tracking Nasrallah along with “real time information” that made it viable. He said Nasrallah’s death had been confirmed through various types of intelligence, but declined to elaborate.

Shoshani declined to say what munitions were used in the strike or provide an estimate on civilian deaths in the strike, only saying that Israel takes measures to avoid civilians whenever possible and clears strikes ahead of time with intelligence and legal experts.

Israel’s Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, said Saturday that the elimination of Nasrallah was “not the end of our toolbox,” indicating that more strikes were planned. He said that the strike targeting Hezbollah leadership was the result of a long period of preparation.

It was not immediately clear what effect the strike would have on Hezbollah or fighting between the sides that has dragged on for nearly a year. Israel has vowed to step up pressure on Hezbollah until it halts its attacks that have displaced tens of thousands of Israelis from communities near the Lebanese border. The recent fighting has also displaced more than 200,000 Lebanese in the past week, according to the United Nations.

The military said it was mobilizing additional reserve soldiers as tensions escalate with Lebanon, activating three battalions of reserve soldiers to serve across the country. The call comes after it sent two brigades to northern Israel earlier in the week to train for a possible ground invasion.

Shoshani, the army spokesperson, said that Israel has inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah’s capabilities over the past week by targeting a combination of immediate threats and strategic weapons, such as larger, guided missiles. But he said much of Hezbollah’s arsenal still remains intact and that Israel would continue to target the group.


He said it is “safe to assume” that Hezbollah will retaliate and that Israel is on “high readiness.” But he said Israel hopes the blow to Hezbollah will change the course of the war.

“We hope this will change Hezbollah’s actions,” he said. “We have been looking for solutions, looking for a change in reality that will bring our civilians home,” referring to the approximately 60,000 Israelis who have been evacuated from their homes along the Lebanese border for almost a year. Earlier this month, Israel’s government said halting Hezbollah’s attacks in the country’s north to allow residents to return to their homes is an official war goal.

Iranian state television read the announcement from Hezbollah confirming Nasrallah’s death live, but there was no other immediate comment. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a Saturday message said “the resistance movement, heading by Hezbollah, will decide the fate of the region,” in a statement read on state TV.

“All regional resistance forces are to stand by and support Hezbollah,” he said. He added that Hezbollah was strong enough to withstand Israeli attacks. Iran is the main supporter of Lebanese Hezbollah and other militant groups in the region.

Also on Saturday, Iran’s influential parliamentary committee of national security demanded “strong” response to Israel following a meeting of the committee. State TV also said people staged anti-Israeli rallies in support of Hezbollah in major cities and town across the country.

Hezbollah started firing rockets on Israel in support of Gaza on Oct. 8, a day after Hamas militants launched an unprecedented attack on Israel, killing some 1,200 people and abducting another 250. Since then, the two sides have been engaged in cross-border strikes that have gradually escalated and displaced tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border.

Hostilities escalated dramatically last week when thousands of explosives hidden in pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah detonated, killing dozens of people and leaving thousands, including many civilians, with severe injuries to the eyes, face and limbs. Israel is widely believed to be behind the attack. Israel has also killed several top Hezbollah commanders in Beirut in addition to the attack that killed Nasrallah.

Nasrallah’s death is a “historical moment,” said Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based think tank Institute for National Security Studies and former intelligence analyst for the Israeli military and prime minister’s office. “This doesn’t mean that Hezbollah is destroyed, because Hezbollah is made up tens of thousands of people,” she said.

Mizrahi noted that Nasrallah was sometimes a “voice of reason,” interested in engaging Israel in a war of attrition and holding the militant group back from using the full force of their formidable arsenal against Israel. Nasrallah’s death could prompt some less senior members of Hezbollah to unleash much stronger weapons than have been used in the nearly yearlong exchange of hostilities between Hezbollah and Lebanon, she said. The biggest question mark right now, though, is how Iran will respond, said Mizrahi.

Mizrahi added that Nasrallah’s death could provide a window of opportunity, while the organization is significantly weakened, for Lebanon to dilute Hezbollah’s far-reaching influence, especially in the south, that threatens to drag Lebanon into a full-scale war with Israel.

On Saturday morning, the Israeli military carried out more than 140 airstrikes in southern Beirut and eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, including targeting a storage facility for anti-ship missiles in Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh. Israel said the missiles were stored underground beneath civilian apartment buildings. Hezbollah launched dozens of projectiles across northern and central Israel and deep into the Israel-occupied West Bank, damaging some buildings in the northern town of Safed.

In Beirut’s southern suburbs, smoke rose and the streets were empty after the area was pummeled overnight by heavy Israeli airstrikes. Shelters set up in the city center for displaced people were overflowing. Many families slept in public squares and beaches or in their cars. On the roads leading to the mountains above the capital, hundreds of people could be seen making an exodus on foot, holding infants and whatever belongings they could carry.

At least 720 people have been killed in Lebanon over the past week from Israeli airstrikes, according to the Health Ministry.

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My only comment is ⬇️ and not just any other one, either!
 
So, now what? Most of Hezbollah’a senior leadership has been killed in the past couple weeks. Their military capabilities are being degraded, though are likely quite resilient.

Less noted under the news of Nasrallah, Iran’s IRGC lost several senior officers in the strike as well. This is another blow to Iran’s prestige and credibility.

The Lebanese government has to content with the reality that Israel has a seemingly unfettered ability to strike Lebanon to excise Hezbollah leadership and arms. It’s an incredible challenge to Lebanon’s sovereignty. Lebanon has to decide how much further Iranian meddling will be tolerated; they already denied an Iranian 747 permission to land this morning if accounts I’ve read are correct.

Nasrallah and Hezbollah supported Assad’s government in Syria; much of the Syrian population has no love for them.

Israel, and specifically Netanyahu, have taken the war against Hezbollah to a new high water mark. They can whack-a-mole leadership and arms caches indefinitely, but their ability to take and hold ground is limited. And Netenyahu needs to keep the fight going; his own political stability is still very rocky since the failures of Oct 7th.

Will Israel try to engage with Lebanon to work to REALLY degrade Hezbollah in the long term? Can Lebanon afford to do this, with a few apartment blocks full of Lebanese civilians caved in to the Hezbollah complex?

Will Lebanon buck Iranian pressure, and how will that affect Lebanon/Syria?

Will Iran feel itself weakening and getting more isolated, and how will it respond to the loss of senior military leaders in the Beirut strikes?
 
It went largely unnoticed yesterday with other events, but 2x USN Destroyers (Spruance and Stockdale) and an LCS (Indiannapolis) came under and repelled a significant Houthi missile attack during a transit in the past day or two.

I think you’re right that Houthi pressure on shipping through the southern end of the Red Sea might be Iran’s most potent proxy now. The global impact on shipping is significant.
 
It went largely unnoticed yesterday with other events, but 2x USN Destroyers (Spruance and Stockdale) and an LCS (Indiannapolis) came under and repelled a significant Houthi missile attack during a transit in the past day or two.

I think you’re right that Houthi pressure on shipping through the southern end of the Red Sea might be Iran’s most potent proxy now. The global impact on shipping is significant.
Wondering how long before the Houthi get the FO part of the equation.
 
So, now what? Most of Hezbollah’a senior leadership has been killed in the past couple weeks. Their military capabilities are being degraded, though are likely quite resilient.

Less noted under the news of Nasrallah, Iran’s IRGC lost several senior officers in the strike as well. This is another blow to Iran’s prestige and credibility.

The Lebanese government has to content with the reality that Israel has a seemingly unfettered ability to strike Lebanon to excise Hezbollah leadership and arms. It’s an incredible challenge to Lebanon’s sovereignty. Lebanon has to decide how much further Iranian meddling will be tolerated; they already denied an Iranian 747 permission to land this morning if accounts I’ve read are correct.

Nasrallah and Hezbollah supported Assad’s government in Syria; much of the Syrian population has no love for them.

Israel, and specifically Netanyahu, have taken the war against Hezbollah to a new high water mark. They can whack-a-mole leadership and arms caches indefinitely, but their ability to take and hold ground is limited. And Netenyahu needs to keep the fight going; his own political stability is still very rocky since the failures of Oct 7th.

Will Israel try to engage with Lebanon to work to REALLY degrade Hezbollah in the long term? Can Lebanon afford to do this, with a few apartment blocks full of Lebanese civilians caved in to the Hezbollah complex?

Will Lebanon buck Iranian pressure, and how will that affect Lebanon/Syria?

Will Iran feel itself weakening and getting more isolated, and how will it respond to the loss of senior military leaders in the Beirut strikes?
This is "Whack a mole" with an excavator, the amount of talent , knowledge and organizational knowledge they have lost in a short time is very significant.
 
It went largely unnoticed yesterday with other events, but 2x USN Destroyers (Spruance and Stockdale) and an LCS (Indiannapolis) came under and repelled a significant Houthi missile attack during a transit in the past day or two.

I think you’re right that Houthi pressure on shipping through the southern end of the Red Sea might be Iran’s most potent proxy now. The global impact on shipping is significant.
The domestic situation in Houthi controlled areas is pretty grim. They are also completely dependent on aid coming in to sustain the Houthi and the population.
 
This is "Whack a mole" with an excavator, the amount of talent , knowledge and organizational knowledge they have lost in a short time is very significant.
Absolutely. I meant more going forward. What has happened in the past few weeks has been a catastrophe for Hezbollah. It will take time to replace and train up leadership, and Israel can probably keep taking them out at a steady pace.
 
My wife recently got back from visiting her family in Malaysia. Her devout family have no way of knowing all the facts and get a censored version of the news where Israel is terrible and not what everyone is doing to Israel, so of course they hate Israel. They know very little about Oct 7th, very little on the constant rocket barrages, so on and so forth.
 
The problem is whoever takes the reins of power may not be a very stable individual - worse than the last.
I would hate to hear your definition of stable. It will be interesting to see which leaders come out of the closet in order to make the necessary operational decisions. Right now there are probably dozens of low-level types with a couple of missiles in their living room wondering if it is time to deploy and for which target? Someone, somewhere must have a list and you can bet that Israel is watching for that person to make a phone call
 
I would hate to hear your definition of stable. It will be interesting to see which leaders come out of the closet in order to make the necessary operational decisions. Right now there are probably dozens of low-level types with a couple of missiles in their living room wondering if it is time to deploy and for which target? Someone, somewhere must have a list and you can bet that Israel is watching for that person to make a phone call
Safe to say Israel has some phenomenal COMINT capabilities. I would expect they’re absolutely watching to identify and splatter anyone who steps up next into any major role.
 
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