Has Harper gone liberal?

[Nauticus]

Why do you have a preference for a Conservative minority?

Because although there are a lot of things the Conservatives do well, there's also a lot of policies that I avidly and passionately disagree with, and I don't trust Harper or his party at all with a majority government.

The NDP has proven historically willing to work with any government if the law in question benefits Canadians in a positive way.

I think forcing the two parties to work together on worthwhile laws would have been better for us as a nation.

 

[toyotatundra]

Perhaps a btter way to move the discussion forward is to explain how and why the LPC could change their seat count.

I have suggested the competition will close ranks so the LPC will have no political "space" to work in. This will make it difficult to get funding, volunteers and press. That and a lack of an underlying political philosophy to attract people makes a prediction of "up to 200 seats" highy unlikely, to say the least...

I can see a number of scenarios, alone or combined, which might bring the Liberals over 155 in 2015.

- a continuing or worsening global economic situation leads centre-right voters to punish the Conservatives, and reward the Liberals.
- Harper or his government is irreparably tarnished by current or yet-to-emerge scandals. The Liberals prosper as the central non-NDP alternative
- After 9 years of Harper, and 4 of Hudak, Ontario tires of the Tories, and swings back to the Grits
- the NDP loses Canada's centre by pursuing ideological rather than pragmatic solutions, by committing a series of gaffes, or by coming under the relentless rhetorical fire of Canada's corporate-owned press
- the charismatic Jack Layton tragically passes on or resigns for health reasons, leaving a less dynamic leader. The soft Left vote returns to the Liberal fold.
- frustrated with Harper or with each other, the P.C. or evangelical Christian wings of the CPC break off, re-dividing the right of centre vote
- a PQ government in Quebec, or a burgeoning sovereignty campaign, causes federalists to unite around their traditional Quebec standard bearer for Canada, the LPC.

And perhaps most likely of all, the Liberal Party selects your humble narrator as Liberal Party leader. Canadian women flock in droves to vote for this brilliant, dynamic stud.

 

[Nauticus]

I can see a number of scenarios, alone or combined, which might bring the Liberals over 155 in 2015.

- a continuing or worsening global economic situation leads centre-right voters to punish the Conservatives, and reward the Liberals.
- Harper or his government is irreparably tarnished by current or yet-to-emerge scandals. The Liberals prosper as the central non-NDP alternative
- After 9 years of Harper, and 4 of Hudak, Ontario tires of the Tories, and swings back to the Grits
- the NDP loses Canada's centre by pursuing ideological rather than pragmatic solutions, by committing a series of gaffes, or by coming under the relentless rhetorical fire of Canada's corporate-owned press
- the charismatic Jack Layton tragically passes on or resigns for health reasons, leaving a less dynamic leader. The soft Left vote returns to the Liberal fold.
- frustrated with Harper or with each other, the P.C. or evangelical Christian wings of the CPC break off, re-dividing the right of centre vote
- a PQ government in Quebec, or a burgeoning sovereignty campaign, causes federalists to unite around their traditional Quebec standard bearer for Canada, the LPC.

And perhaps most likely of all, the Liberal Party selects your humble narrator as Liberal Party leader. Canadian women flock in droves to vote for this brilliant, dynamic stud.

Bahahahaha. Great.

Seriously though, I do think that, should Layton not lead the NDP, the Liberals may once again take 2nd place. I think the people are huge fans of Layton and may not be as much a fan of the NDP.

 

[toyotatundra]

Seriously though, I do think that, should Layton not lead the NDP, the Liberals may once again take 2nd place. I think the people are huge fans of Layton and may not be as much a fan of the NDP.

Even with Layton there, NDP support is precarious. Quebec voters have no long-standing tradition of voting NDP. The Orange Wave of 2011 was a mile wide, and an inch deep.

 

[Nauticus]

Even with Layton there, NDP support is precarious. Quebec voters have no long-standing tradition of voting NDP. The Orange Wave of 2011 was a mile wide, and an inch deep.

I'm not sure that's true.

Quebec has a tradition of voting Bloc, and they pretty much vanquished the Bloc in the recent election. I think it may be Quebec adjusting her stance on Canadian politics, but it could also be Quebec just looking for a change.

But I don't think having the majority of Quebec voters electing the NDP in droves for the first time would be a fluke. It just doesn't happen like that.

 

[Robert0288]

A lot of the NDP support in Quebec came from being disenfranchised with the liberals (still) and realizing that the bloc didn't really have all that much to gripe about in terms of real or percieved slights to the province.  That left the CPC or the NDP, and Quebec is generally more accepting of socialist policies.

Also I wouldn't count the liberals out just yet.  They have 4 years.. (well 3) to start back up from the grass roots.  Going back and hitting universities, and promising the newest generation of party loyals and ideologues everything under the sun because their not even the official opposition.  If their lucky the liberals will also find or come up with a realatively intelligent and charismatic leader that will help attract voters.  Also if anyone sugjests Justin Trudeau for this role I might actually put my palm through my head.  The man has the intellectual thought process of an 8 year old who just had their favorite ball taken away.  He does have some fairely good political coaches, but if you debate or even talk to Justin you can see they have their work cut out for them.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The NDP has proven historically willing to work with any government if the law in question benefits certain Canadians in a positive way.

You left out an important qualifier.  The NDP don't have an exclusive lock on co-operation when it benefits their favoured constituencies, and are perfectly willing to disregard disfavoured constituencies.