Has Trump's victory brought about a change to the US Party System?

[dimsum]

Not sure how that applies to my comment about a PS employee not loading up on debt, when the chances of being laid off are high?

A significant amount of the DoD are PS civilians. If, say, a third of them get laid off, that is a not-insignificant loss of corporate knowledge since unlike military, they don’t get posted every 3 years.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Bah, corporate knowledge is so overrated, look we have computers and now AI, everything is going to be fine........

 

[Remius]

Bah, corporate knowledge is so overrated, look we have computers and now AI, everything is going to be fine........

They could just go with Phoenix and fire all their pay and compensation folks.

We could do the same for the CAF and move all our pay clerks to other trades.

 

[Kirkhill]

I don't know about a change to the party system but it might have an effect on the FBI.

FBI brass ‘stunned’ and ‘shell-shocked’ over Trump reelection

The brass on the seventh floor at FBI headquarters in Washington are walking around in a daze and wary of a housecleaning since President-elect Donald Trump won his reelection on Tuesday, according to inside sources.

www.washingtontimes.com

Speaking of hubris.

 

[OldSolduer]

I don't know about a change to the party system but it might have an effect on the FBI.

FBI brass ‘stunned’ and ‘shell-shocked’ over Trump reelection

The brass on the seventh floor at FBI headquarters in Washington are walking around in a daze and wary of a housecleaning since President-elect Donald Trump won his reelection on Tuesday, according to inside sources.

www.washingtontimes.com

Speaking of hubris.

The FBI leadership needs to unfuck itself like the RCMP leadership needs to do.

Revenge is dish best served cold

 

[Remius]

I’m sure the FBI will be defunded.

 

[Kirkhill]

I’m sure the FBI will be defunded.

Probably more of a Re-Org is my guess. Counter-terrorism is one division I would be watching for reassignment.

 

[Kirkhill]

And the always interesting Ruy Texeira has a post-mortem.

The Shattering of the Democratic Coalition

It’s time to face the facts.

www.liberalpatriot.com

The facts must be faced. The Democratic coalition today is not fit for purpose. It cannot beat Republicans consistently in enough areas of the country to achieve dominance and implement its agenda at scale. The Democratic Party may be the party of blue America, especially deep blue metro America, but its bid to be the party of the ordinary American, the common man and woman, is falling short.

There is a simple—and painful—reason for this. The Democrats really are no longer the party of the common man and woman. The priorities and values that dominate the party today are instead those of educated, liberal America which only partially overlap—and sometimes not at all—with those of ordinary Americans.

 

[Pelorus]

I don't know about a change to the party system but it might have an effect on the FBI.

FBI brass ‘stunned’ and ‘shell-shocked’ over Trump reelection

The brass on the seventh floor at FBI headquarters in Washington are walking around in a daze and wary of a housecleaning since President-elect Donald Trump won his reelection on Tuesday, according to inside sources.

www.washingtontimes.com

Speaking of hubris.

I think it's prudent to wait for this to be correlated elsewhere before we draw any conclusions off this.

Call me a skeptic, but I can't get on board with "insider sources" who are speaking to a tabloid owned by a Korean religious cult who have been caught on numerous occasions straight up lying.

 

[Halifax Tar]

And the always interesting Ruy Texeira has a post-mortem.

The Shattering of the Democratic Coalition

It’s time to face the facts.

www.liberalpatriot.com

A very similar path is being followed by the LPC/NDP folks up here.

 

[Brad Sallows]

If there is a change, it was brought about during Trump's 2016 victory, not this one.

The realignment of traditional voting blocs across the two parties isn't something that happened in the last few months. What did happen in the last few months is that a lot of Democrats were either in denial or thought they were going to win the realignment. It's just a fact that there are a lot more lower-income, less-well-pensioned voters than there are higher-income, well-pensioned voters.

The complete realignment isn't even semi-permanent (yet). The Never-Trump-type "establishment" Republicans have pretty much taken themselves out of what the Republican party really is, while insisting (or pretending) that they are what the Republican party ought to be; that piece of realignment is probably baked in for a long time. The people who used to be "ordinary working Americans" in the Democratic coalition, though, should not be treated as confirmed Republican voters yet. They can be lost (to Republicans) if Republicans fumble "change"; they can be won if Republicans deliver perceived "change" or if Democrats visibly obstruct too much, too hard.

 

[Lumber]

The people who used to be "ordinary working Americans" in the Democratic coalition, though, should not be treated as confirmed Republican voters yet. They can be lost (to Republicans) if Republicans fumble "change"; they can be won if Republicans deliver perceived "change" or if Democrats visibly obstruct too much, too hard.

There are no bunch of stories coming out (anecdotal, I know) of such workers only now starting to realize the implications of potential Trump policies.

For example, a company had to announce that they are reducing the expected Christmas bonus because they are purchasing a but ton of inventory now to avoid the increase in cost that will come as a result of Trump's tarrifs. The workers who voted Trump had no idea this would happen, and believed Trump would mean more money in thei pockets.

 

[Brad Sallows]

There are no bunch of stories coming out (anecdotal, I know) of such workers only now starting to realize the implications of potential Trump policies.

For example, a company had to announce that they are reducing the expected Christmas bonus because they are purchasing a but ton of inventory now to avoid the increase in cost that will come as a result of Trump's tarrifs. The workers who voted Trump had no idea this would happen, and believed Trump would mean more money in thei pockets.

That might be legit; it might also be that the company decision makers think their employees voted the wrong way.

I already noted several foolish (stupid to the bone, really) economic policies advanced by the candidates during the election - broad tariffs, certain types of income exempted from income taxation were the two most obvious.

Trump undoubtedly lied about some things; some things he may have meant genuinely but was just too ignorant to understand they won't work the way he advertised them; some things simply won't survive contact with legislative politics and agency inertia and obstructionism. Pity that the Democrats managed to find not one but two people who were such weak candidates that they could lose to Trump. Pity that so many people made excuses for the weak candidates. Who knew that Trump wasn't himself such a weak candidate that Democrats could afford to risk forcing their progressive dream team on voters?

 

[dimsum]

That might be legit; it might also be that the company decision makers think their employees voted the wrong way.

So, the response is to stockpile stuff and reduce Christmas bonuses?

Yes - the way to be a successful company is to piss off your employees and stockpile stuff because reasons.

 

[Brad Sallows]

So, the response is to stockpile stuff and reduce Christmas bonuses?

Yes - the way to be a successful company is to piss off your employees and stockpile stuff because reasons.

Supposedly a business wants to stockpile to temporarily avoid passing a tariff cost onto customers. (Just take it as given; obvious reasons to doubt the veracity are costs of stockpiling and whether any appreciable amount of inventory can be stockpiled.) They need more money to do this. They can cut employee compensation, cut dividends, issue bonds, borrow other ways, sell off some assets, etc. They decide to cut bonuses. It makes fiscal sense since bonuses are usually contingent on fiscal performance, and fiscal performance will eventually take a hit. It could also simply be that the leadership are vindictive and want employees to feel the pain of something that will be blamed on Trump. What was provided is only the bones of a narrative; more than one interpretation is possible. Politely, the anecdote can't be spun up into something meaningful beyond doubt.

But it raises the discussion of whether Trump's promises are going to achieve what most reasonable people assume should be the point - reduce the rate of price increases and/or increase employment in America - and whether any of Harris's promises would do better. Trump's tariffs are a crappy idea; Biden's tariffs are a crappy idea; Harris's tariffs are a crappy idea. Trump at least made concrete promises, even if they were lies or so impractical as to be useless. Between Harris following Trump's lead on a handful of promises and Harris repudiating earlier positions without explanations, voters had approximately no obviously preferable set of future claims. They could instead look to the state of the economy during each of the two past administrations.

In particular circumstances, tariffs are useful. Broad tariffs are unlikely to be so. Either someone will convince the administration not to charge broad tariffs, or they will figure it out belatedly when costs of tariffs are passed on to consumers and there is not enough employment gain due to companies opening facilities in the US to avoid tariffs. If the administration is sufficiently pig-headed, this may help tip the House over to Democrats in the 2026 midterms.

 

[Halifax Tar]

There are no bunch of stories coming out (anecdotal, I know) of such workers only now starting to realize the implications of potential Trump policies.

For example, a company had to announce that they are reducing the expected Christmas bonus because they are purchasing a but ton of inventory now to avoid the increase in cost that will come as a result of Trump's tarrifs. The workers who voted Trump had no idea this would happen, and believed Trump would mean more money in thei pockets.

Snopes: Unfounded

What We Know About Claim Some PA Trump Voters Won't Get Christmas Bonus Due to Tariffs

A story about workers at a manufacturing plant received millions of views.

www.snopes.com

 

[Brad Sallows]

Snopes: Unfounded

Skeptics 1; panicked people 0.