Hu Jintao escorted out of China party congress

[Edward Campbell]

Agreed, but I think Xi has also taken a good read of the Ukraine, and while I am sure he’d like to take Taiwan, he’s knows it’s a little beyond his capabilities at this point in time.

At the risk of repeating myself, again, everyone who went to almost any staff college understands that the two most difficult joint operations are:

1. An amphibious assault on a defended coast or island; and​

2. An airborne assault on a defended place.​

Taking Taiwan requires the PLA to do both ... well.

Maybe they are a lot better than they were 25 years ago, but, back then, a fairly senior officer told me that the PLA had zero experience and very little training in either operation.

 

[Kirkhill]

At the risk of repeating myself, again, everyone who went to almost any staff college understands that the two most difficult joint operations are:

1. An amphibious assault on a defended coast or island; and​

2. An airborne assault on a defended place.​

Taking Taiwan requires the PLA to do both ... well.

Maybe they are a lot better than they were 25 years ago, but, back then, a fairly senior officer told me that the PLA had zero experience and very little training in either operation.

2027 - that is the timeline that Xi established in his latest speech. No move before.

Now that could be misdirection and action this day is imminent

OR

that could be reducing expectations domestically

OR

that could just be buying himself some wiggle room to see how Ukraine works out.

I lean to the second and third options.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

At the risk of repeating myself, again, everyone who went to almost any staff college understands that the two most difficult joint operations are:

1. An amphibious assault on a defended coast or island; and​

2. An airborne assault on a defended place.​

Taking Taiwan requires the PLA to do both ... well.

Maybe they are a lot better than they were 25 years ago, but, back then, a fairly senior officer told me that the PLA had zero experience and very little training in either operation.

He may try for the smaller islands close to the mainland.

 

[Good2Golf]

At the risk of repeating myself, again, everyone who went to almost any staff college understands that the two most difficult joint operations are:

1. An amphibious assault on a defended coast or island; and​

2. An airborne assault on a defended place.​

Taking Taiwan requires the PLA to do both ... well.

Maybe they are a lot better than they were 25 years ago, but, back then, a fairly senior officer told me that the PLA had zero experience and very little training in either operation.

It certainly wouldn’t have been lost in Xi the VDV having been decimated on its assault of Hostomel Airfield outside of Kyiv. (Though I’d actually give a nod to the PLA’s airborne forces over the VDV on both numbers and the ability of Xi’s all-seeing eye to know enough of the ground truth of PLA airborne forces’ capabilities and readiness)

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

At the risk of repeating myself, again, everyone who went to almost any staff college understands that the two most difficult joint operations are:

1. An amphibious assault on a defended coast or island; and​

2. An airborne assault on a defended place.​

Taking Taiwan requires the PLA to do both ... well.

Maybe they are a lot better than they were 25 years ago, but, back then, a fairly senior officer told me that the PLA had zero experience and very little training in either operation.

If China were to move on Taiwan it would be well advised to commence any operation with a prolonged naval blockade and extensive bombardment campaign prior to even thinking about any sort of landing operation.

Securing Sea Lines of Communication in the Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea, Straits of Malacca and South China Sea would also be critically important. Especially with an American response expected.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

If China were to move on Taiwan it would be well advised to commence any operation with a prolonged naval blockade and extensive bombardment campaign prior to even thinking about any sort of landing operation.

Securing Sea Lines of Communication in the Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea, Straits of Malacca and South China Sea would also be critically important. Especially with an American response expected.

Good luck getting the USN to play along with that.

Much less the Australians, Japanese, South Koreans and Singaporeans….

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Good luck getting the USN to play along with that.

Much less the Australians, Japanese, South Koreans and Singaporeans….

No disagreement from me. What becomes interesting though is what if China gets help from Allies like Pakistan, Iran, etc?

It isn't necessary to control all of the seas, just some of them.

China–Pakistan Economic Corridor - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[SeaKingTacco]

No disagreement from me. What becomes interesting though is what if China gets help from Allies like Pakistan, Iran, etc?

It isn't necessary to control all of the seas, just some of them.

China–Pakistan Economic Corridor - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Iran is stupid enough to go for it, but what is in it for Pakistan? If they get clobbered, the Indians will eat them.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Iran is stupid enough to go for it, but what is in it for Pakistan? If they get clobbered, the Indians will eat them.

Pakistan is a critically important Ally of China's. Iran could probably lock down the Strait of Hormuz if it wished and it would be more feasible if backed by Chinese Naval Power.

There are a number of people who have written about the "Malacca Dilemma" for China, including Hu Jintao himself.

It is not necessary for the Chinese to fight everywhere but they would need to gain control of a few key areas to make an invasion of Taiwan feasible.

The Malacca Dilemma: A hindrance to Chinese Ambitions in the 21st Century - Berkeley Political Review

“This man may look intelligent but in fact is stupid.” As evident from the quote above, Deng Xiaoping had a rather low opinion of Mikhail Gorbachev, the last President of the USSR. Xiaoping did not believe in imitating the western model of success. While Gorbachev had tried to reform the USSR...

bpr.berkeley.edu

 

[Kirkhill]

Pakistan is a critically important Ally of China's. Iran could probably lock down the Strait of Hormuz if it wished and it would be more feasible if backed by Chinese Naval Power.

There are a number of people who have written about the "Malacca Dilemma" for China, including Hu Jintao himself.

It is not necessary for the Chinese to fight everywhere but they would need to gain control of a few key areas to make an invasion of Taiwan feasible.

The Malacca Dilemma: A hindrance to Chinese Ambitions in the 21st Century - Berkeley Political Review

“This man may look intelligent but in fact is stupid.” As evident from the quote above, Deng Xiaoping had a rather low opinion of Mikhail Gorbachev, the last President of the USSR. Xiaoping did not believe in imitating the western model of success. While Gorbachev had tried to reform the USSR...

bpr.berkeley.edu

That effort expended in securing SLOC and bombardment

Takes time
Eats resources (ships, missiles, bullets, barrels and bodies)
Announces intentions

I still don't see what is in it for China except, as in Ukraine, a vanity project.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Pakistan is a critically important Ally of China's. Iran could probably lock down the Strait of Hormuz if it wished and it would be more feasible if backed by Chinese Naval Power.

There are a number of people who have written about the "Malacca Dilemma" for China, including Hu Jintao himself.

It is not necessary for the Chinese to fight everywhere but they would need to gain control of a few key areas to make an invasion of Taiwan feasible.

The Malacca Dilemma: A hindrance to Chinese Ambitions in the 21st Century - Berkeley Political Review

“This man may look intelligent but in fact is stupid.” As evident from the quote above, Deng Xiaoping had a rather low opinion of Mikhail Gorbachev, the last President of the USSR. Xiaoping did not believe in imitating the western model of success. While Gorbachev had tried to reform the USSR...

bpr.berkeley.edu

The SoH could be, briefly, closed. It would not stay closed for long.