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Informing the Army’s Future Structure

Which mean maybe it is more practical to plan for units that don't need to have that sort of thing.
Maybe BC isn't a good place for a PRes Arty unit - and maybe just Infantry (Light/Mountain) and Engineers (Light/Mountain) are practical in that area.
It's still necessary; it just needs to be the right type.
Have more Armoured and Artillery units in the Prairie's...
By all means but the Prairies are not good performers for the mass that you need. That mass is around Vancouver (which is also a weak producer of soldiers for its size) SW Ontario and SW Quebec. You can't make the population move to where the ranges are so you need to get very serious with training simulators of various types that will work locally and you need to get very serious air moving people to the ranges of operational areas where they will consolidate their training.
The symmetry aspect of the MO is pretty unproductive. BC has the population and terrain to be able to a pretty legit reserve mountain infantry brigade. Sure they won't be 10th Mountain or the Alpini, but you'd have an actual useful formation.
BC's primary problem is the underperformance of their establishment. The very old figures that I have show that 39 CBG generates about 1,500 folks. That's far short of a brigade, even a stripped down light brigade of some 3-3,500 folks. You would think that with a population of 5.5 million with just short of 3 million in Vancouver and Victoria. The Maritimes, with a total population of roughly 2.5 million generate some 3,000 collectively in 36 and 37 CBGs

With only 11 units its hard to tell with they are close to filling their allocated paid ceilings or are unable to fill what they have.

I'm not against them being trained as mountain troops but I look at both coast to need something in the nature of anti-access/area denial forces that can operate along the length of the coast. In fact I would consider it a prime component of a joint command that fuses ARes with NavRes and 4 CRPG. Components that could be generated with current strength would include:

a) an ARes coastal surveillance regiment of both CRPG and ARes armoured subunits (including SUAS)

b) an ARes air defence battery for CFB Victoria (devolved from 5 BC Arty Regt)

c) a NavRes coastal patrol vessel squadron (think Combat Boat 90N)

d) a NavRes coastal mine laying/clearance squadron (think Kingston MCDV class)

d) an ARes light infantry battalion trained to operate both amphibiously with CB 90Ns as well as in rugged coastal terrain.

e) an ARes anti-ship missile battery (think NMESIS, devolved from 15 Fd Regt)

f) a hybrid joint headquarters with long range comms, EW, cyber, MI capabilities

I see something similar, only larger for the east coast.

Assuming that the leadership can lose a few pounds first, of course ;)
Fire the leadership. If all they can do is generate the wimpy force that they have from that large a population then a new team is needed.

Steven Crowder Coffee GIF by Nexio
 
The big challenge in Vancouver/Lowermainland is the cost of living, our classic recruiting base, either can't afford to live here, once they graduate most have to move. The others are working like dogs to keep their head above water. Likely they don't have the energy to commit to another profession. Plus 3 of the major demographics all look down on the military as a low status occupation or for the people incapable of succeeding in business. Or their parents have experienced war (Indo-Pak, Iran-Iraq) and don't want their kids having to go to war as well.
 
The big challenge in Vancouver/Lowermainland is the cost of living, our classic recruiting base, either can't afford to live here, once they graduate most have to move. The others are working like dogs to keep their head above water. Likely they don't have the energy to commit to another profession. Plus 3 of the major demographics all look down on the military as a low status occupation or for the people incapable of succeeding in business. Or their parents have experienced war (Indo-Pak, Iran-Iraq) and don't want their kids having to go to war as well.

(y)

Consider Janissaries and Mamelukes.
 

IT IS always a temptation to an armed and agile nation
To call upon a neighbour and to say:–
"We invaded you last night–we are quite prepared to fight,
Unless you pay us cash to go away."

And that is called asking for Dane-geld,
And the people who ask it explain
That you've only to pay 'em the Dane-geld
And then you'll get rid of the Dane!

It is always a temptation for a rich and lazy nation,
To puff and look important and to say:–
"Though we know we should defeat you, we have not the time to meet you.
We will therefore pay you cash to go away."

And that is called paying the Dane-geld;
But we've proved it again and again,
That if once you have paid him the Dane-geld
You never get rid of the Dane.

It is wrong to put temptation in the path of any nation,
For fear they should succumb and go astray;
So when you are requested to pay up or be molested,
You will find it better policy to say:–

"We never pay any-one Dane-geld,
No matter how trifling the cost;
For the end of that game is oppression and shame,
And the nation that plays it is lost!"


Hengist and Horsa were brother chieftains from Jutland, who led the first Saxon bands which settled in England. They were called in by the British king Vortigern to defend him against the Picts and other enemies. The place of their landing is said to have been Ebbsfleet in Kent, probably sometime around 450 A.D.. Hengist and Horsa were at first given the island of Thanet as a home, but they soon quarrelled with their British allies, and gradually possessed themselves of what became the kingdom of Kent. In 455 the Saxon Chronicle records a battle between Hengist and Horsa and Vortigern at a place called Aegaels threp, in which Horsa was slain. Thenceforward Hengist reigned in Kent, together with his son Aesc. There later followed three subsequent battles, which resulted in the expulsion of the Britons from Kent.

Saxons, Danes, Mamelukes, Janissaries - unintended consequences of defence on the cheap.
 
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From Noah Gairn on the potential restructure.


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This Week in Defence: Special Rumor Edition (Restructuring, Medium Cavalry, New LAV)
Noah
Jul 11


Hello everyone, and welcome to this special edition of This Week in Defence. Through popular demand I have decided to move up the rumors from Monday's edition to today as quite frankly I was getting a bit worn with all the messages and questions. Besides, better you hear it from me than someone else!

There is a lot to go through so this will be formatted a bit differently than normal!

Let's start with the major aspect of todays rumors, restructuring. This has been a hot topic for the last few months and one I have been very hesitant to put in here due to the conflicting and volatile information.

However with plans approved in the last few weeks, as well as going though about four different people for verification, I think im finally in a position where I can confidently put this out there.

The new army will be centered around three divisions, broken down between the regular, reserve, and a support division. The working designation for these two new Divisions are the 6th and 7th.

The 6th Division will be comprised of:

1 CMBG

2 CMBG

5 CMBG

1x Light Infantry Regiment

1x Fires Brigade

1x Protection Brigade

1x Sustainment Brigade

The 7th Division will be the reserves and rangers and has been, at least in some documentation, been referred to as the 'Continental Division'. I sadly dont have much on the Seventh.

This is the info that I have as of now. I am still working on gathering more details but this is the basic structure of how the future army will look. Obviously some of you were expecting more, and hoped to see something more radical done.

Some of you will be very happy with this and how straightforward it is. It is a plan that makes sense and is within realistic expectations. As always, we take these as speculation and not as fact. Plans can change but I am fairly confident that this is the active plan.

I am awaiting some more time before I give my thoughts, as well as more info to come out. I think it is still to early for me to judge, but my current feels are a mixed bag. Perhaps next week I will dive more.

...
Responding here instead of the 2% to 3.5% GDP funding thread, because because this thread is all about Army organization where the other should be much broader. I have come up with some of my own ideas on what this structure should look like based on bits of info I've heard related to the army modernization plans, ideas, and intents. Everything appearing in this is a unit or formation, and there are a lot more minor units (company sized) with a major as CO where today we impose Bn HQs and LCol COs over-top of these small organizations. The expeditionary force is going to see growth in rocket artillery and air defence, while the continental force needs to build room for the land component of integrated air and missile defence. Both expeditionary and continental divisions have their associated division support group (DISGP) in the sustainment division as it allows both DISGP to be employed in a regional GS role domestically and for both DISGP to force generate for expeditionary operations. Otherwise, our country is too vast for a single maintenance battalion to be relevant to an expeditionary division spread across the country while a second maintenance battalion tries to be relevant to a continental division spread across the country (and the same applies to S&T & pers svcs). Two regionally focused field support groups supporting both divisions can be more relevant and provide more depth for sustain deployed missions.
Canadian Army - AMT.png

A lot of the continental and sustainment divisions content is derived from the F2025 structure that I produced a few years ago:

And for where to put the deployable organizations:
AMT Field Force - Geo Locs.png
 
The big challenge in Vancouver/Lowermainland is the cost of living, our classic recruiting base, either can't afford to live here, once they graduate most have to move. The others are working like dogs to keep their head above water. Likely they don't have the energy to commit to another profession. Plus 3 of the major demographics all look down on the military as a low status occupation or for the people incapable of succeeding in business. Or their parents have experienced war (Indo-Pak, Iran-Iraq) and don't want their kids having to go to war as well.

Vancouver and the lower mainland have a population of over 3 million people. It's one of the fastest growing regions in Canada, and the largest urban concentration in Canada west of Toronto. There are hundreds of thousands of potential recruits for the CAF in this area. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/metro-vancouver-population-three-million-1.7449282

Vancouver Island has over 800,000 people, more than half in the Greater Victoria area, with tens of thousands of people in the CAF's eligible age bracket. Vancouver Island - Wikipedia

Kelowna, the 'centre of gravity' for the southern interior, is booming and has a population of more than 160,00 people. Kelowna - Wikipedia

39 CBG has about $20M annually to run its business, across BC.

And yet, most units struggle to put more than 50 people on the square every parade night.


I would classify that as a management failure of the highest order. What gets done about it is none of my business of course ;)
 
Vancouver and the lower mainland have a population of over 3 million people. It's one of the fastest growing regions in Canada, and the largest urban concentration in Canada west of Toronto. There are hundreds of thousands of potential recruits for the CAF in this area. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/metro-vancouver-population-three-million-1.7449282

Vancouver Island has over 800,000 people, more than half in the Greater Victoria area, with tens of thousands of people in the CAF's eligible age bracket. Vancouver Island - Wikipedia

Kelowna, the 'centre of gravity' for the southern interior, is booming and has a population of more than 160,00 people. Kelowna - Wikipedia

39 CBG has about $20M annually to run its business, across BC.

And yet, most units struggle to put more than 50 people on the square every parade night.


I would classify that as a management failure of the highest order. What gets done about it is none of my business of course ;)
You forgot your cup of tea, son.🤣🤣🤣
 
Responding here instead of the 2% to 3.5% GDP funding thread, because because this thread is all about Army organization where the other should be much broader. I have come up with some of my own ideas on what this structure should look like based on bits of info I've heard related to the army modernization plans, ideas, and intents. Everything appearing in this is a unit or formation, and there are a lot more minor units (company sized) with a major as CO where today we impose Bn HQs and LCol COs over-top of these small organizations. The expeditionary force is going to see growth in rocket artillery and air defence, while the continental force needs to build room for the land component of integrated air and missile defence. Both expeditionary and continental divisions have their associated division support group (DISGP) in the sustainment division as it allows both DISGP to be employed in a regional GS role domestically and for both DISGP to force generate for expeditionary operations. Otherwise, our country is too vast for a single maintenance battalion to be relevant to an expeditionary division spread across the country while a second maintenance battalion tries to be relevant to a continental division spread across the country (and the same applies to S&T & pers svcs). Two regionally focused field support groups supporting both divisions can be more relevant and provide more depth for sustain deployed missions.
View attachment 94585

A lot of the continental and sustainment divisions content is derived from the F2025 structure that I produced a few years ago:


And for where to put the deployable organizations:
View attachment 94586

Thank you!
 
You forgot your cup of tea, son.🤣🤣🤣
I've long believed that you could raise and run entire reserve brigades and for that matter divisions.
It's not impossible.
Mind you ,I all so often wondered who'd be opposed and for that matter panicked by the concept ...NDHQ or the reserve force itself ?
 
I've long believed that you could raise and run entire reserve brigades and for that matter divisions.
It's not impossible.
Mind you ,I all so often wondered who'd be opposed and for that matter panicked by the concept ...NDHQ or the reserve force itself ?
Certainly not the membersof the reserve. We've wanted to be useful for a very long time. Most of us at least.
 
I've long believed that you could raise and run entire reserve brigades and for that matter divisions.
It's not impossible.
Mind you ,I all so often wondered who'd be opposed and for that matter panicked by the concept ...NDHQ or the reserve force itself ?

I dunno...

Given an annual budget of $20M, and an eligible population of approx. 500k to a million 'on your doorstep' you could...

... line up the corporate policy and supply chain enablers to give the resources and infrastructure to recruit and train in BC...

... run some kind of competition internally across the CAF to select a leadership team who can raise and train an Bde Gp + to 'DAG Green status' (or whatever)

...then see what happens.


The Cadet Program in BC pretty much does that and they have thousands more participants than the PRes.
 
Look. Everyone has ideas. And some are good, some bad. Don't underestimate the current problems, though. Even simple things aren't being done. Realistic and meaningful training seems to be lacking. Some other problems are the people in charge. How they rose to senior positions of responsibility boggles the mind. Importance of choosing the right people can't be understated. Push comes to shove, that's where the emphasis needs to be.

...or, in other words, the foundational deficiency in the Army Reserve in BC is the first letter of each sentence...
 
Look. Everyone has ideas. And some are good, some bad. Don't underestimate the current problems, though. Even simple things aren't being done. Realistic and meaningful training seems to be lacking. Some other problems are the people in charge. How they rose to senior positions of responsibility boggles the mind. Importance of choosing the right people can't be understated. Push comes to shove, that's where the emphasis needs to be.

...or, in other words, the foundational deficiency in the Army Reserve in BC is the first letter of each sentence...
Good one - and not subtle at all.

Many years ago we joked that "senior leadership promotes in its own image." The problem is that mediocracy perpetuates itself. Following the same model year after year, even when it demonstrably deficient, is deeply engrained. At best, when there is vision, it is cyclical; the same wheel is reinvented that existed two or three decades previously to the current iteration.

I've said it many times: the reserve force model which we use, which is marginally effective, has been unchanged for some sixty years, at least. One has to concede that the current reserve model did generate large numbers of effective augmentees for Afghanistan, but that was a peacetime war. It was a war which was entirely optional for the government. It could throw as much or as little into the effort as it felt inclined to do. And at that, the best that Canada could do was to keep one battlegroup in action. Out of three and one half full-time brigades Canada was hard pressed to keep one cobbled together battlegroup - augmented by roughly 20% reservists - in the field. The most troubling thing about that is that this is what the system was designed to do.

The real role for reserve forces is to not just augment the holes in full-time establishments, but to rapidly expand the force in times of threatened danger; to present an image to a potential adversary that if they take aggressive steps they will be met by a host that will make the enemy's potential success doubtful. We know how Russia and China operate but we simply do not have the structure to oppose them, either with allies or without. Ottawa is wrapped in an illusion of perpetual peace, and our military leadership takes its cues from that.

Quite clearly, an army based principally on an ARes force will be limited and have risks attached to it. The principle one is its level of readiness at any given times. Practically speaking, our RegF has that problem as well when you consider the needs for managed readiness and equipment management programs (and our current VOR rate). The trick is to find the right balance where the full-time component is just large enough to provide the leadership and technical competence for the whole force and to continuously regenerate its professional standards. The ARes, OTOH, needs the numbers, the training and the equipment to rapidly provide the mass needed to face varying situations. What the term "rapidly" means is a matter of definition and risk tolerance. "Rapidly" should, however, not mean "non-existent."

Cost and readiness are the critical factors. It is inarguable that the annual maintenance cost of a part-time force and its equipment is less than an equally sized and equipped full-time force. Acquisition of equipment costs will vary with the size of the force desired. But that's where the key trade off comes: If costs for acquisition and maintenance are aggregated, one can afford to acquire and maintain a small, poorly equipped full-time force or a a larger, well equipped but less ready mixed force based largely on part-timers.

This is where the fallacy of our defence strategy comes into play. Just how ready is Canada's expensive full-time force when it is missing thousands of people and it has a VOR rate of 50% of key equipment? And yet the army's leadership is unable to dismount from this PY dependant, one-trick pony that it continues to ride. And yes, ARes leadership is just as bad. While their arguments for a larger, better trained and better equipped ARes is not only desirable, it is critical, the ARes leadership model is no longer viable. Simply put, war has become too complicated at the unit level to be effectively conducted by individuals who have not advanced through a proper regime of military education and experience. Skills bridging the Maj to LCol and MWO to CWO levels require full-timers. One might get by with part-time Majs and MWO in many circumstances but never at the LCol and CWO level. The army needs to integrate into hybrid structures.

To get back to your point about how leadership got into being in charge? It's simple The full-timers have created a self-perpetuating cult following amongst themselves that refuses to get out of the current, perpetual peacetime construct and who not only ignore but adamantly deny the need to have a mobilization structure in place to rapidly grow the force beyond its full-time component. It's unfortunate that what is leaking out of the current force development project seems to indicate a status quo. I fervently hope that buried deeply behind department secrecy is a phase 2 model for the increased funding, which will allocate the appropriate full-time and equipment resources to grow 7 Div (and maybe an 8 Div) into what it ought to be, a proper hybrid force.

🍻
 
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