Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Colin Parkinson]

People love blaming Israel, but the Iranian threat wasn't going away or getting smaller, they successful broke the Abrahamic Accords using Hamas and the Gulf States were going back to supporting MB organizations. Which will inflame anti-west/US attitudes, regardless of whether the US is active in the region or goes home. The US wants to be the worlds biggest power, but does not want the baggage that comes with that title.

 

[Lumber]

People love blaming Israel, but the Iranian threat wasn't going away or getting smaller, they successful broke the Abrahamic Accords using Hamas and the Gulf States were going back to supporting MB organizations. Which will inflame anti-west/US attitudes, regardless of whether the US is active in the region or goes home. The US wants to be the worlds biggest power, but does not want the baggage that comes with that title.

I wonder though if the Americans had instead practiced détente with Iran, would they have been so gung how to flood the ME with proxies? They got all of Israel's other bad-neighbors to start playing nice, maybe the could have convinced Iran as well. Let them be a Islamist theocracy, but make them happy to keep it to themselves.

Too late now, I suppose.

 

[Cloud Cover]

I wonder though if the Americans had instead practiced détente with Iran, would they have been so gung how to flood the ME with proxies? They got all of Israel's other bad-neighbors to start playing nice, maybe the could have convinced Iran. Let them be a Islamist theocracy, but make them happy to keep it to themselves.

Too late now, I suppose.

I’m of the opinion that the collective west has tried everything with IRGC, and they’ve only become more rotten. Not the Iranian people, but the regime and its institutions. If there ever was a regime in a country that had it coming for decades, this is it.

Also we need to consider that if Israel and Trump had not done this, what would have or could have happened. Certainly not peace and tranquility. It’s going to be a long on again, off again war that will see the world switch away from Middle East oil and mining and over to countries like primarily Canada, Venezuela, Chile, Australia, and unfortunately Russia.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... Not enough people are talking about the fertilizer shortage right before planting season. For North American farmers that's maybe a 30% hit in costs. But for the developing world we're risking actual famine in some places as food production tanks. Just look at what happened in Sri Lanka few years ago when they cut fertilizer imports because of Balance of Payments issues. We're now taking that global.

Big Food & Ag get this, even if many other people don't.

Iran War Strangles Fertilizer Supplies, Sparks Fears of Food Shortage - The Food Institute

Fertilizer shortages tied to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure threaten global food supply, raising crop risks and food prices worldwide.

foodinstitute.com

Iran War Deprives U.S. Farmers of Affordable Fertilizer as Spring Planting Looms

Farmers in the U.S. and Canada, already worried about another year of low profits or losses, now could have spring planting disrupted as they struggle to find fertilizer.

www.agriculture.com

Energy shock, fertilizer crunch, freight surge: Food manufacturers face triple hit from Iran war

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iran has triggered a supply chain crisis that extends far beyond crude oil, threatening food ingredient markets through a cascade of fertilizer shortages, vegetable oil price spikes, sugar refinery disruption, and a sharp...

www.foodingredientsfirst.com

 

[Lumber]

Big Food & Ag get this, even if many other people don't.

Iran War Strangles Fertilizer Supplies, Sparks Fears of Food Shortage - The Food Institute

Fertilizer shortages tied to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure threaten global food supply, raising crop risks and food prices worldwide.

foodinstitute.com

Iran War Deprives U.S. Farmers of Affordable Fertilizer as Spring Planting Looms

Farmers in the U.S. and Canada, already worried about another year of low profits or losses, now could have spring planting disrupted as they struggle to find fertilizer.

www.agriculture.com

Energy shock, fertilizer crunch, freight surge: Food manufacturers face triple hit from Iran war

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iran has triggered a supply chain crisis that extends far beyond crude oil, threatening food ingredient markets through a cascade of fertilizer shortages, vegetable oil price spikes, sugar refinery disruption, and a sharp...

www.foodingredientsfirst.com

Saskatchewan seeing dollar signs.

 

[Remius]

Saskatchewan seeing dollar signs.

Maybe Trump will remove tariffs on something like, I don’t know. potash?

Amazing how short sighted this administration is.

 

[RangerRay]

By the way, the people who could help navigate a way out of global energy crisis? Fired by DOGE.

Trump’s DOGE Cuts Slashed Staff That Handled Middle Eastern Oil and Gas Crises

Six months before going to war in Iran, the U.S. government cut staff that would have been central to the current situation.

www.notus.org

“Go fast and break things” might be great in Silicone Valley, but not where life, death and national honour are at stake.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I wonder though if the Americans had instead practiced détente with Iran, would they have been so gung how to flood the ME with proxies? They got all of Israel's other bad-neighbors to start playing nice, maybe the could have convinced Iran as well. Let them be a Islamist theocracy, but make them happy to keep it to themselves.

Too late now, I suppose.

I doubt it, they were heavily anti-US and Anti-Israel from the start, now if Saddam had not tried to sucker punch Iran, right at the beginning, then their control over the country might have not been so easy.

 

[Brad Sallows]

One possible change of trajectory for Iran is that a military dictatorship replaces, finally, the nominally religious one, overtly casting aside the trappings of theocracy. The mullahs may be abstemious religious scholars intent on preparing/purifying themselves for the afterlife, but almost every other kind of person enjoys some pleasures of the flesh, for which it is necessary to be alive and preferable not to have to keep looking out for killjoy religious enforcers.

That Khamenei's son might have been selected as his father's replacement is a substantial step down in quality, as Khamenei was a (slight) step down from Khomenei. If the IRGC is fed up with or senses weakness in the religious leadership, the IRGC can take all of the power, if they choose.

The regime (how the government is structured and functions) might not really change much, but it's foreign policy might change a lot and reset conditions and terms of negotiations.

 

[PrairieFella]

Saskatchewan seeing dollar signs.

Theres a brand new mine near Russell, MB just across the border that is starting up soon. 5% of profits are for the community and 4% of profits divvied up between three reserves and the MMF. Might be some real nice parks and backroads in the RM of Russell-Binscarth.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

One of the political leaders in Iran has publicly stated he is resigning and please don't target me.......

Basj milita seen changing into civy's and dumping weapons. A lot of high ranking leaders getting taken out in the past few days, along with a lot of checkpoints getting hit. Now also drive by shootings at checkpoints as pro-freedom Iranians get access to firearms.

 

[PrairieFella]

One of the political leaders in Iran has publicly stated he is resigning and please don't target me.......

Basj milita seen changing into civy's and dumping weapons. A lot of high ranking leaders getting taken out in the past few days, along with a lot of checkpoints getting hit. Now also drive by shootings at checkpoints as pro-freedom Iranians get access to firearms.

Ill preface by saying fuck the regime but where are you seeing these things? I havent seen any of the reputiable sources of OSINT reporting anything like that.

 

[Lumber]

Maybe Trump will remove tariffs on something like, I don’t know. potash?

Amazing how short sighted this administration is.

This could be work out well. Right now the tariffs are 10%, so the Americans are right now getting used to paying 10% more for Potash. If the tariffs drop, the Potash corps up their export price by 5%. The Americans still pay less than they did pre-lifting of the tariffs, but now our Potash corps make 5% more profit.

 

[suffolkowner]

its the nitrogen/urea. No point in potassium or phosphorous if theres no nitrogen. Nitrogen cost high may result in less corn especially being planted