Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
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Iran is a growing malignant tumour in the region.
They will literally cut their own throat sooner or later, but as in all tumours, its just a matter of time until it either takes the host, or its removed.
I don't know the fate of this radicalised nation, but if they keep travelling the path thye are on, there will be a confrontation sooner or later, and in my view, it will be sooner.
Iran is a uge country, and is in my opinion, one of the strongest in the region. Don't take what they say lightly.
The whole region is rifle with corruption, extremism, and a seething hatred for us all. However, I have come to the conclusion that violence is a way of life in the ME, just like hockey in Canada, so if they can't fight with someone else, they'll fight with each other. Thats just how it is here. A Mars bar is worth more than a life. Too bad the entire region just doesn't implode on itself.
Just remember, Iran is dangerous, more than most people think.
Cheers,
Wes
They will literally cut their own throat sooner or later, but as in all tumours, its just a matter of time until it either takes the host, or its removed.
I don't know the fate of this radicalised nation, but if they keep travelling the path thye are on, there will be a confrontation sooner or later, and in my view, it will be sooner.
Iran is a uge country, and is in my opinion, one of the strongest in the region. Don't take what they say lightly.
The whole region is rifle with corruption, extremism, and a seething hatred for us all. However, I have come to the conclusion that violence is a way of life in the ME, just like hockey in Canada, so if they can't fight with someone else, they'll fight with each other. Thats just how it is here. A Mars bar is worth more than a life. Too bad the entire region just doesn't implode on itself.
Just remember, Iran is dangerous, more than most people think.
Cheers,
Wes
- Reaction score
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Bigmac
The more they practice with, the less they have to use.
The more they practice with, the less they have to use.
- Reaction score
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The soft approach:
http://www.victorhanson.com/articles/hanson021907.html
If that dosn't work there is always the hard approach, and people who say the US is "overstreached" and unable to carry out military action are talking through their hats.
http://www.victorhanson.com/articles/hanson021907.html
If that dosn't work there is always the hard approach, and people who say the US is "overstreached" and unable to carry out military action are talking through their hats.
- Reaction score
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Whats hapend with this missile into space thing? I heard some reports on the CBC news Tuesday morning, that they launched one but nothing else since. Nothing on the Star or CNN.
- Reaction score
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Found it,
Looks like the storey has changed slightly from yesterday. It was reported as being a launch, and reaching sub-orbit.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6394387.stm
Looks like the storey has changed slightly from yesterday. It was reported as being a launch, and reaching sub-orbit.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6394387.stm
- Reaction score
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A missing Iranian intelligence General appears to have defected to the Great satan. 
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21344278-2703,00.html
Iranian general 'seeking asylum in US'
Abraham Rabinovich, Jerusalem
March 08, 2007
A RETIRED Iranian general who went missing in Turkey last month has defected and sought asylum in the US, according to a well-connected Arabic newspaper published in London.
The newspaper, al-Shark al-Awsat, cited "high-profile" sources saying former Iranian deputy defence minister and Revolutionary Guard commander Ali Reza Asghari had gone over to the West.
Reports from Istanbul that General Asghari's family had also disappeared in Turkey support the likelihood that he defected rather than was kidnapped by either the CIA or by Israel's Mossad, as has been speculated. The general went missing from his Istanbul hotel a month ago.
Iranian authorities, who have been silent on the disappearance until this week, claim he has been abducted. "It is likely Asghari has been abducted by Western intelligence services," said Iran's top police officer, General Esmaeil Ahmadi Moghaddam.
Defection of such a high-ranking figure would leave no external enemy to blame and would be seen as a rejection of the Islamic state by someone who well knows its inner workings.
General Asghari's crossing of the line, whether voluntary or not, is a resounding blow for the Iranian Government since he is privy to its most intimate secrets, particularly those concerning its nuclear capabilities and plans.
He served until two years ago as deputy defence minister, a post he held for eight years and which presumably offered an uninhibited view of virtually every aspect of Iran's security apparatus.
He was reportedly closely associated with Iran's activities in support of the Shi'ites in Iraq.
US intelligence analysts contend that Iran has been providing armaments to Iraqi Shia fighters that have been used with deadly effect against coalition forces, particularly highly lethal roadside bombs.
General Asghari would presumably be able to address the question of whether these shipments have been made with "approval from top leaders in Iran", as a senior US intelligence officer has claimed.
Israel's Shin Bet security service, which is responsible for protecting Israeli diplomatic missions abroad and senior Israeli officials on their travels, has reportedly boosted its activity abroad in anticipation of a possible Iranian attempt to kidnap an Israeli official.
"We formulate our security arrangements according to developments in the field and intelligence information," said a Shin Bet spokesman yesterday.
Israel has denied any connection to the missing general. Israeli officials, however, would clearly like to hear what General Asghari has to say about the disappearance of a downed Israeli navigator, Ron Arad, who was reportedly transferred by Lebanese Shi'ites to Iran in the 1980s when General Asghari was commander of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard detachment posted in Lebanon to liaise with Hezbollah.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21344278-2703,00.html
Iranian general 'seeking asylum in US'
Abraham Rabinovich, Jerusalem
March 08, 2007
A RETIRED Iranian general who went missing in Turkey last month has defected and sought asylum in the US, according to a well-connected Arabic newspaper published in London.
The newspaper, al-Shark al-Awsat, cited "high-profile" sources saying former Iranian deputy defence minister and Revolutionary Guard commander Ali Reza Asghari had gone over to the West.
Reports from Istanbul that General Asghari's family had also disappeared in Turkey support the likelihood that he defected rather than was kidnapped by either the CIA or by Israel's Mossad, as has been speculated. The general went missing from his Istanbul hotel a month ago.
Iranian authorities, who have been silent on the disappearance until this week, claim he has been abducted. "It is likely Asghari has been abducted by Western intelligence services," said Iran's top police officer, General Esmaeil Ahmadi Moghaddam.
Defection of such a high-ranking figure would leave no external enemy to blame and would be seen as a rejection of the Islamic state by someone who well knows its inner workings.
General Asghari's crossing of the line, whether voluntary or not, is a resounding blow for the Iranian Government since he is privy to its most intimate secrets, particularly those concerning its nuclear capabilities and plans.
He served until two years ago as deputy defence minister, a post he held for eight years and which presumably offered an uninhibited view of virtually every aspect of Iran's security apparatus.
He was reportedly closely associated with Iran's activities in support of the Shi'ites in Iraq.
US intelligence analysts contend that Iran has been providing armaments to Iraqi Shia fighters that have been used with deadly effect against coalition forces, particularly highly lethal roadside bombs.
General Asghari would presumably be able to address the question of whether these shipments have been made with "approval from top leaders in Iran", as a senior US intelligence officer has claimed.
Israel's Shin Bet security service, which is responsible for protecting Israeli diplomatic missions abroad and senior Israeli officials on their travels, has reportedly boosted its activity abroad in anticipation of a possible Iranian attempt to kidnap an Israeli official.
"We formulate our security arrangements according to developments in the field and intelligence information," said a Shin Bet spokesman yesterday.
Israel has denied any connection to the missing general. Israeli officials, however, would clearly like to hear what General Asghari has to say about the disappearance of a downed Israeli navigator, Ron Arad, who was reportedly transferred by Lebanese Shi'ites to Iran in the 1980s when General Asghari was commander of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard detachment posted in Lebanon to liaise with Hezbollah.
- Reaction score
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Here's more on the Iranian Tomahawk 6 was talking about....an article by Amir Taheri
http://www.nypost.com/php/pfriendly/print.php?url=http://www.nypost.com/seven/03092007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/iran__big_fish_gone_missing_opedcolumnists_amir_taheri.htm
He apparently was in Turkey on his way back from Syria
That is interesting because it suggests that Iran may be coming to terms with a change in its supply lines. It now finds that is cannot supply its markets in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria. That prompts two further suggestions:
1. They are now concerned that Iraq is lost to them as a conduit because of either the US or Iraqi Government
2. That Iraq has been a reliable conduit in the past, both during the current period of instability since the fall of Saddam, and notably previously, during the build-up of Hezbollah in South Lebanon from 1980. This further prompts notice that that would have happened while Saddam was fighting Iran but that when the US liberated Kuwait Saddam flew his Air Force to refuge in Iran. Some very convoluted state-craft going on in that part of the world.
Finally:
If it is a revival of Cold War tactics it can only be possible because the US has finally developed a critical mass of trusted personnel that can operate in the middle eastern environment. With that mass in place Iran and the other regimes are in much more fragile circumstances than the old Soviet Union ever was. It had the means to control its borders and people and isolate the people from both the physical presence of foreigners and their message. In addition, for the longest while it offered its people the prospect of the western material culture by different means. It fell when it failed to deliver.
The middle east can't control its borders or its people. That is its single defining historical character. The Arabs in particular with their raiding and trading culture of nomadic pastoralism cheerfully ignore borders. Just take a look at the Clan affiliations in Western Iraq and Eastern Syria. As well, despite their "abhorrence" for the west, middle easterners show a remarkable affinity for western products - including pick-ups, complete with gun-racks, for their camels, lacy undies and cosmetics for the women, and a good bottle of Scotch.
It suggests to me an environment reminiscent of the US in the 1920s or possibly even the 1950s. Good church going people recovering in the pews from the hangovers inflicted the night before at the local "speak-easy" in the 1920s. The children of those same church-goers in the 1950s going to the same churches as their parents while contributing to making Hugh Hefner rich and making Las Vegas very profitable as "Sin City". Dubai and Kuwait City, amongst others, seem to be vying to be a combination of Las Vegas and Disneyworld.
It is an environment that can be very easily penetrated and with a population that is susceptible to rumour-mongering. The right message by the right people could cause the governments' no end of problems.
Iran is in a lot weaker position than the USSR ever was and will not survive 40 years of that kind of pressure.
And in a PS - to further cement the tendency to wander that Old Sweat identified - Iran is still likely to lose even if the Democrats win in 2008.
The Democrats are arguing for a change in strategy, to pull combat troops out of Iraq and relocate them in Afghanistan.
President Bush is arguing to stay the course and veto any precipitous move.
President Bush will stay the course until he leaves office in 22 months. That gives him ample time to continue disruption of the ACMs in Iraq, build a stronger Iraqi internal security apparatus and realign Iraqi politics.
At the same time 'agents provocateurs' can become more numerous in Iran creating problems with minorities, students and labour - all the usual suspects.
When Bush leaves the Democrats will come in and declare a change in strategy - shift troops to Iran's eastern front in Afghanistan and Baluchistan, pursue a policy of Hot Trod in Baluchistan and Pashtunistan to get the terrorists, announce a containment policy with respect to Iran and shift the remainder of American troops from the internal security role in Iraq to the borders, with particular attention being paid to the Iranian border.
Thus US domestic politics are satisfied while US foreign policy, as it has done over the years, survives largely intact. I believe that Vietnam was a salutory lesson to the American political establishment on the dangers of a "discontinuous" foreign policy. Parties change, and they need to present new policies to win elections, but the interests of the state don't change.
Afghanistan was right to the jaw of Iran to get their attention. Iraq has been a series of jabs with the left as the US and Iraq spar during the wearing down phase. By 2009, a nice strong body blow from the right might just be enough to finish the match. Coincidental timing as far as Canadian involvement in Afghanistan is concerned.
http://www.nypost.com/php/pfriendly/print.php?url=http://www.nypost.com/seven/03092007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/iran__big_fish_gone_missing_opedcolumnists_amir_taheri.htm
He apparently was in Turkey on his way back from Syria
That is interesting because it suggests that Iran may be coming to terms with a change in its supply lines. It now finds that is cannot supply its markets in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria. That prompts two further suggestions:
1. They are now concerned that Iraq is lost to them as a conduit because of either the US or Iraqi Government
2. That Iraq has been a reliable conduit in the past, both during the current period of instability since the fall of Saddam, and notably previously, during the build-up of Hezbollah in South Lebanon from 1980. This further prompts notice that that would have happened while Saddam was fighting Iran but that when the US liberated Kuwait Saddam flew his Air Force to refuge in Iran. Some very convoluted state-craft going on in that part of the world.
Finally:
If it is a revival of Cold War tactics it can only be possible because the US has finally developed a critical mass of trusted personnel that can operate in the middle eastern environment. With that mass in place Iran and the other regimes are in much more fragile circumstances than the old Soviet Union ever was. It had the means to control its borders and people and isolate the people from both the physical presence of foreigners and their message. In addition, for the longest while it offered its people the prospect of the western material culture by different means. It fell when it failed to deliver.
The middle east can't control its borders or its people. That is its single defining historical character. The Arabs in particular with their raiding and trading culture of nomadic pastoralism cheerfully ignore borders. Just take a look at the Clan affiliations in Western Iraq and Eastern Syria. As well, despite their "abhorrence" for the west, middle easterners show a remarkable affinity for western products - including pick-ups, complete with gun-racks, for their camels, lacy undies and cosmetics for the women, and a good bottle of Scotch.
It suggests to me an environment reminiscent of the US in the 1920s or possibly even the 1950s. Good church going people recovering in the pews from the hangovers inflicted the night before at the local "speak-easy" in the 1920s. The children of those same church-goers in the 1950s going to the same churches as their parents while contributing to making Hugh Hefner rich and making Las Vegas very profitable as "Sin City". Dubai and Kuwait City, amongst others, seem to be vying to be a combination of Las Vegas and Disneyworld.
It is an environment that can be very easily penetrated and with a population that is susceptible to rumour-mongering. The right message by the right people could cause the governments' no end of problems.
Iran is in a lot weaker position than the USSR ever was and will not survive 40 years of that kind of pressure.
And in a PS - to further cement the tendency to wander that Old Sweat identified - Iran is still likely to lose even if the Democrats win in 2008.
The Democrats are arguing for a change in strategy, to pull combat troops out of Iraq and relocate them in Afghanistan.
President Bush is arguing to stay the course and veto any precipitous move.
President Bush will stay the course until he leaves office in 22 months. That gives him ample time to continue disruption of the ACMs in Iraq, build a stronger Iraqi internal security apparatus and realign Iraqi politics.
At the same time 'agents provocateurs' can become more numerous in Iran creating problems with minorities, students and labour - all the usual suspects.
When Bush leaves the Democrats will come in and declare a change in strategy - shift troops to Iran's eastern front in Afghanistan and Baluchistan, pursue a policy of Hot Trod in Baluchistan and Pashtunistan to get the terrorists, announce a containment policy with respect to Iran and shift the remainder of American troops from the internal security role in Iraq to the borders, with particular attention being paid to the Iranian border.
Thus US domestic politics are satisfied while US foreign policy, as it has done over the years, survives largely intact. I believe that Vietnam was a salutory lesson to the American political establishment on the dangers of a "discontinuous" foreign policy. Parties change, and they need to present new policies to win elections, but the interests of the state don't change.
Afghanistan was right to the jaw of Iran to get their attention. Iraq has been a series of jabs with the left as the US and Iraq spar during the wearing down phase. By 2009, a nice strong body blow from the right might just be enough to finish the match. Coincidental timing as far as Canadian involvement in Afghanistan is concerned.
- Reaction score
- 63
- Points
- 530
The US ran into this problem in the 70's but we were able to pull out of the stagflation with the free market,something the mullah's dont have.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/03/11/wiran11.xml
Iran votes to impose petrol rationing
By Gethin Chamberlain and Kay Biouki in Teheran, Sunday Telegraph
Last Updated: 12:24am GMT 11/03/2007
Iranians are bracing themselves for a fresh round of belt tightening after their government voted to impose petrol rationing coupled with sharp rises in the price of fuel.
The rationing system will limit Iranians to 22 gallons (100 litres) of petrol a month, two full tanks for a typical family car. It is a direct result of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's adherence to an economic model, based on Iranian self-sufficiency, that has caused housing and other living costs to soar.
The basic price of petrol will rise by 25 per cent, but Iranians who need to use more than the permitted amount will be hit by rises of up to 450 per cent.
Economists predict that the knock-on effect on the average Iranian will be dramatic, with retailers expected to pass on the additional costs to consumers.
Iran is the second largest producer of oil in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries but it imports 40 per cent of its petrol - worth about $3 billion a year - after its refining capacity was wrecked in the war with Iraq. It currently sells the petrol at subsidised prices.
Mr Ahmadinejad had publicly argued against the abolition of subsidies and advocated persuading consumers to switch to other fuel sources such as natural gas, which do not rely on foreign imports. But critics say his opposition was manufactured for public consumption. They point out that the price increases had already been factored into his government's budget.
Some Iranians suspect that the move is also a precautionary measure against further possible sanctions which may be imposed on Iran for pressing ahead with its nuclear programme in defiance of the United Nations security council.
Under the new rules, which will take effect in late spring, motorists will be given coupons entitling them to 100 litres of petrol a month at the increased price of 1,000 rial (about 5p) per litre. Additional petrol will have to be bought at open market prices of between 14p and 22p per litre.
The plan was due to be introduced on March 21 but has been delayed for three months to allow time for the distribution of ration cards. Some drivers have been issued with the cards but at least half are still waiting to receive them. Work to fit the nation's petrol pumps with card readers is not yet complete.
Iranian consumers said the changes would push up inflation. Djamile Ershadi, 70, a retired government clerk, said: "Everything has gone up. You cannot live on an ordinary salary any more. Life has become much harder."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/03/11/wiran11.xml
Iran votes to impose petrol rationing
By Gethin Chamberlain and Kay Biouki in Teheran, Sunday Telegraph
Last Updated: 12:24am GMT 11/03/2007
Iranians are bracing themselves for a fresh round of belt tightening after their government voted to impose petrol rationing coupled with sharp rises in the price of fuel.
The rationing system will limit Iranians to 22 gallons (100 litres) of petrol a month, two full tanks for a typical family car. It is a direct result of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's adherence to an economic model, based on Iranian self-sufficiency, that has caused housing and other living costs to soar.
The basic price of petrol will rise by 25 per cent, but Iranians who need to use more than the permitted amount will be hit by rises of up to 450 per cent.
Economists predict that the knock-on effect on the average Iranian will be dramatic, with retailers expected to pass on the additional costs to consumers.
Iran is the second largest producer of oil in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries but it imports 40 per cent of its petrol - worth about $3 billion a year - after its refining capacity was wrecked in the war with Iraq. It currently sells the petrol at subsidised prices.
Mr Ahmadinejad had publicly argued against the abolition of subsidies and advocated persuading consumers to switch to other fuel sources such as natural gas, which do not rely on foreign imports. But critics say his opposition was manufactured for public consumption. They point out that the price increases had already been factored into his government's budget.
Some Iranians suspect that the move is also a precautionary measure against further possible sanctions which may be imposed on Iran for pressing ahead with its nuclear programme in defiance of the United Nations security council.
Under the new rules, which will take effect in late spring, motorists will be given coupons entitling them to 100 litres of petrol a month at the increased price of 1,000 rial (about 5p) per litre. Additional petrol will have to be bought at open market prices of between 14p and 22p per litre.
The plan was due to be introduced on March 21 but has been delayed for three months to allow time for the distribution of ration cards. Some drivers have been issued with the cards but at least half are still waiting to receive them. Work to fit the nation's petrol pumps with card readers is not yet complete.
Iranian consumers said the changes would push up inflation. Djamile Ershadi, 70, a retired government clerk, said: "Everything has gone up. You cannot live on an ordinary salary any more. Life has become much harder."
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 210
http://newsblaze.com/story/20070314191923payn.nb/newsblaze/IRAN0001/Iran.html
Sooo.... taking bets on how long before that/those facility/ies are a burning pile of rubble?
Sooo.... taking bets on how long before that/those facility/ies are a burning pile of rubble?
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 210
Will, I've that news at more sites(like normal sites from AP and reuters, that Russian expertshave left Iran), and given Iran's "expert" care of assets like the F-14, which are much simpler and smaller then Nuclear reactors, I give them less then a year before their Nuclear facilities are beyond use.
- Reaction score
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- 430
5 to 15 months. Perhaps it will be a lot longer, or perhaps it will be in a few hours time.sober_ruski said:
- Reaction score
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I rather FOX News a tad bit moreTN2IC said:
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