Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Colin Parkinson]

The military is subordinate to the IRGC, I suspect the Clerics and IRGC want to keep the military confined to barracks as they are unlikely to be "Reliable". One commentator thinks that the scale has caught the IRGC off guard and they have been penny packeting their forces around and now cannot to a display of force. Also claims they been bringing in Arabs to shot the civilians (based on language heard in videos). Even if this fails, it's another nail in the regime coffin and at this point they now need to kill a lot of people. Add in the drought, water shortages, economic crisis, it's not looking good. I hope the Shah has good security as the IRGC might try to whack him to remove that lightening rod.
Another factor not in the IRGC favour is that 50,000 of the 70,000 mosques in the country have closed, those mosques and the rural areas were their traditional recruiting grounds. I suspect they may also have a serious recruitment issue and find it had to get fanatical foot soldiers these days.

 

[OldSolduer]

I hope the whole stinking lot of mullahs and religious freaks crash and burn. The world should have taken this nation to the woodshed 40 years ago

 

[daftandbarmy]

Mullah's are out...

https://twitter.com/x/status/2006692722586050852

 

[brihard]

Mullah's are out...

https://twitter.com/x/status/2006692722586050852

I’ll wait and see on this one… We’re early in what could be huge events and there are a lot of competing interests with motivation to spread BS or exaggerate different facets.

 

[brihard]

Trump has said in a Truth Social post that the U.S. will intervene if Iran shoots and kills protesters. Not particularly clear what he means by that or to what extent this actually reflects a shift in U.S. policy towards Iran. There are some obvious challenges with this notion.

Trump warns US will intervene if Iran kills protesters

The US president says "we will come to their rescue" after days of demonstrations and clashes.

www.bbc.com

 

[HavokFour]

Trump has said in a Truth Social post that the U.S. will intervene if Iran shoots and kills protesters. Not particularly clear what he means by that or to what extent this actually reflects a shift in U.S. policy towards Iran. There are some obvious challenges with this notion.

Trump warns US will intervene if Iran kills protesters

The US president says "we will come to their rescue" after days of demonstrations and clashes.

www.bbc.com

It's pretty clear he really, really wants to get the US completely tangled up in something. Venezuela isn't moving the needle fast enough.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Let's see ...

Elite fracture? Could be - depending on how far the de-cloaking exercise goes, and if the military, for sure, are having their leashes shortened. Would also be good to see "bigger names" (government/clerical/mil) publicly defecting.

External pressure realignment? POTUS47's latest social media arm-twist isn't anything new in tone, but maybe a titch more specific - for now, anyway. No sign of the usual suspect IRN supporters (RUS, CHN, Gulf states, Hezbollah & Co, etc.) pulling back or reversing support yet.

Protests/Mass mobilization/Oppo factions coalescing? Pot seems to be simmering (I'd have to track this bit a bit closer) but not hard enough and/or long enough. Maybe waiting for some big triggering event????

Start of the bingo card for some colour of revolution? We'll see ...

 

[OldSolduer]

Watch n shoot.

 

[lenaitch]

"shots and violently kills". Aside from the bad grammar, if Iran kills them non-violently, is he good with that?

 

[OldSolduer]

This

 

[Kirkhill]

It is interesting to go back and read the Wiki synopsis on how we got here.

White Revolution - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The bit about the clerics opposition to the Shah rings some familiar bells.

"The powerful Shī'ah clergy were also angered at the reforms that removed much of their traditional powers in the realms of education and family law, as well as lessening their previously strong influence in the rural areas. The White Revolution's emphasis on secular education eroded the Ulama's former monopoly in that field, after the development of secular courts had reduced clerical power over law and jurisprudence.

"A "large percentage of the upper echelon of the clergy came from landowning families" deeply affected by the reform and much absentee rent income went directly to the clergy and their institutions. The land reforms initiated the breakup of huge areas previously held under charitable trust (vaqf), administered by members of the Ulama and formed a considerable portion of that class’s revenue. The income generated from rents in an estimated 10,000 villages, which helped finance the clerical establishment, were eligible for redistribution."

 

[quadrapiper]

This

Would have expected the regime to have a sufficiency of gear for dealing with protests according to their own norms.

Russia and China securing their embassies and other facilities?