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Iran Super Thread- Merged

The military is subordinate to the IRGC, I suspect the Clerics and IRGC want to keep the military confined to barracks as they are unlikely to be "Reliable". One commentator thinks that the scale has caught the IRGC off guard and they have been penny packeting their forces around and now cannot to a display of force. Also claims they been bringing in Arabs to shot the civilians (based on language heard in videos). Even if this fails, it's another nail in the regime coffin and at this point they now need to kill a lot of people. Add in the drought, water shortages, economic crisis, it's not looking good. I hope the Shah has good security as the IRGC might try to whack him to remove that lightening rod.
Another factor not in the IRGC favour is that 50,000 of the 70,000 mosques in the country have closed, those mosques and the rural areas were their traditional recruiting grounds. I suspect they may also have a serious recruitment issue and find it had to get fanatical foot soldiers these days.
 
I hope the whole stinking lot of mullahs and religious freaks crash and burn. The world should have taken this nation to the woodshed 40 years ago
 
Trump has said in a Truth Social post that the U.S. will intervene if Iran shoots and kills protesters. Not particularly clear what he means by that or to what extent this actually reflects a shift in U.S. policy towards Iran. There are some obvious challenges with this notion.

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Trump has said in a Truth Social post that the U.S. will intervene if Iran shoots and kills protesters. Not particularly clear what he means by that or to what extent this actually reflects a shift in U.S. policy towards Iran. There are some obvious challenges with this notion.



It's pretty clear he really, really wants to get the US completely tangled up in something. Venezuela isn't moving the needle fast enough.
 
Let's see ...

Elite fracture? Could be - depending on how far the de-cloaking exercise goes, and if the military, for sure, are having their leashes shortened. Would also be good to see "bigger names" (government/clerical/mil) publicly defecting.

External pressure realignment? POTUS47's latest social media arm-twist isn't anything new in tone, but maybe a titch more specific - for now, anyway. No sign of the usual suspect IRN supporters (RUS, CHN, Gulf states, Hezbollah & Co, etc.) pulling back or reversing support yet.

Protests/Mass mobilization/Oppo factions coalescing? Pot seems to be simmering (I'd have to track this bit a bit closer) but not hard enough and/or long enough. Maybe waiting for some big triggering event????

Start of the bingo card for some colour of revolution? We'll see ...🍿
 
Watch n shoot.

Arrow Pull Back GIF by Jukebox Saints
 
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