Iran Super Thread- Merged

[GR66]

Shaheds should not be getting through… But Shaheds are getting through. Naval Support Activity Bahrain has taken at least one solid hit, and likely more.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027729438146797665

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027791068763197852

Various presumable ‘misses’ have struck civilian areas including the Fairmonthotel at Dubai palms, and something near the Burj Khalifa tower. Kuwait International Airport terminal took a hit.

Way too much info coming in to have a great sense of what all is happening, but Iran is definitely shooting lots back.

Still no clarity on the status of Ayatollah Khamenei. He has not yet made his promised TV address, but were I him I wouldn’t be sticking my head up anywhere either.

Nice to see that the people from the US's ally in Bahrain are so upset at the Iranian attacks on the US naval base they are hosting...

 

[PrairieFella]

Reports arecoming in that the Iranians have closed the Straits of Hormuz. Unsure if that means theyve mined it.

 

[suffolkowner]

Shaheds should not be getting through… But Shaheds are getting through. Naval Support Activity Bahrain has taken at least one solid hit, and likely more.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027729438146797665

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027791068763197852

Various presumable ‘misses’ have struck civilian areas including the Fairmonthotel at Dubai palms, and something near the Burj Khalifa tower. Kuwait International Airport terminal took a hit.

Way too much info coming in to have a great sense of what all is happening, but Iran is definitely shooting lots back.

Still no clarity on the status of Ayatollah Khamenei. He has not yet made his promised TV address, but were I him I wouldn’t be sticking my head up anywhere either.

overwhelmed or underprepared?

 

[PrairieFella]

overwhelmed or underprepared?

That radar dome getting hit looks expensive. Credit where its due, Shaheds really are an Iranian stroke of genius. Low cost and effective as hell. Every $4,000,000 patriot missile used on a $30,000 shahed is one not being used on a future missile strike.

 

[Remius]

So, if Ukraine helps the US against Iran, what are the chances that the US will continue to help Ukraine against Russia?

“sorry, we are currently out of office fighting the Russians. We will get back to you once we’ve won.”

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027785114021966235

European response

 

[PrairieFella]

Iran's revolutionary guards tell ships passage through Strait of Hormuz 'not allowed', EU naval mission official says

An official from the European Union's naval mission Aspides said on Saturday that vessels have been receiving VHF transmission from Iran's Revolutionary Guards saying "no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz".

www.reuters.com

 

[Lumber]

Reports now coming out that Ali Khamenei's body has been found and he is confirmed dead.

 

[brihard]

Reports now coming out that Ali Khamenei's body has been found and he is confirmed dead.

Remain skeptical of everything… ButI do have to expect that Israel and the U.S. timed this for max leadership impact.

I don’t know how much that’ll actually matter though; presumably the regime has anticipated this for years.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

So now that things are happening. Who thinks we'll see current heads of the regime replaced with members of the same regime, just like In Venezuela and ultimately nothing meaningfully changes for the Iranians.

Unlikely or if it does, not for long. the people are done with the Regime. With the IRGC weakened, the Military is going rise up and start killing IRGC and proxy forces. They will openly support the Shah returning and a transitional government.

KSA has declared war on Iran, as has UAE and the UK. which mostly just opens KSA airspace.

 

[Lumber]

Remain skeptical of everything… ButI do have to expect that Israel and the U.S. timed this for max leadership impact.

I don’t know how much that’ll actually matter though; presumably the regime has anticipated this for years.

Fox News is now officially reporting it. This is after Iranian state media indicated Ali Khamenei would be making a statement in a "few minutes".... 3 hrs ago...

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Reports now coming out that Ali Khamenei's body has been found and he is confirmed dead.

 

[HavokFour]

Remain skeptical of everything… ButI do have to expect that Israel and the U.S. timed this for max leadership impact.

I don’t know how much that’ll actually matter though; presumably the regime has anticipated this for years.

We'll know soon. Word is the Israeli government now has pictures of the corpse.

 

[ytz]

So now that things are happening. Who thinks we'll see current heads of the regime replaced with members of the same regime, just like In Venezuela and ultimately nothing meaningfully changes for the Iranians.

Very hard to say. Regime change through air power only would be unprecedented though.

I don't think people get the scale of this.

Japan in 1945: 72M
Iran in 2025: 92M

Reports arecoming in that the Iranians have closed the Straits of Hormuz. Unsure if that means theyve mined it.

Means nothing. How much fire control do they have over the strait. That's the question.

That radar dome getting hit looks expensive. Credit where its due, Shaheds really are an Iranian stroke of genius. Low cost and effective as hell. Every $4,000,000 patriot missile used on a $30,000 shahed is one not being used on a future missile strike.

That's not a radar dome. It's a satellite link. You don't put a massive radar in a settled area. Unless you want to cook the neighbours.

 

[ytz]

Fox News is now officially reporting it. This is after Iranian state media indicated Ali Khamenei would be making a statement in a "few minutes".... 3 hrs ago...

Source is Israel.

Also, this is isn't enough. The regime has designated survivors.

 

[brihard]

Means nothing. How much fire control do they have over the strait. That's the question.

They only need fire control over major maritime insurers. A ship that cannot be insured won’t sail. They simply need to drive up the risk premium sufficiently.

 

[Czech_pivo]

We'll know soon. Word is the Israeli government now has pictures of the corpse.

Boots (in the shadows of course) on the ground?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Very hard to say. Regime change through air power only would be unprecedented though.

I don't think people get the scale of this.

Japan in 1945: 72M
Iran in 2025: 92M



Means nothing. How much fire control do they have over the strait. That's the question.



That's not a radar dome. It's a satellite link. You don't put a massive radar in a settled area. Unless you want to cook the neighbours.

I'm sure the EPA a la Qatari version, is pretty weak. Maybe it where all the guest workers live?

 

[ytz]

Gotta kill a substantial majority of these guys to even have a chance at regime change.

Assembly of Experts - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And I don't think they are going to pull it off. No Iranian will take to the street unless they see a significant part of the regime apparatus dismantled.

 

[suffolkowner]

I wonder if this will result in some more missile orders.