Iran Super Thread- Merged

[KevinB]

I know what you’re saying, but the new guy- if left in place - will have to cement his position.

He’s going to be ash inside of 48hrs. Neither the Israelis nor DJT will accept him as an option. That was pretty clear prior to his ‘election’, all the Council of Clerics did is put a target on themselves. They mistook the warning shot on their subordinates for a miss, and the option to opt for a moderate.

A lot of people in that country have felt quite emboldened to accept the bombing as the price to be paid for a change in government.

Agreed. Also we are now at the grandchildren of the revolution era in Iran. The majority of the population haven’t seen a really change in anything. They swapped the repressive regime of the Shah for a repressive regime of fundamentalist clerics. The economic situation has gotten worse for most (and it wasn’t great under the Shah) and the Shah’s dreaded secret police were coopted into the Regime.

How Iran’s Clerical Regime Rebuilt SAVAK into a Global Repression Machine - NCRI

Four-minute read The fall of the Shah in 1979 was widely seen as the end of SAVAK, Iran’s dreaded secret police. However, rather than dismantling this

www.ncr-iran.org

Trump has opened that can of worms for his own ends- it’s pretty obvious he could care less if the regime falls. It’s not apparent that the Iranian people know that. If there is no change the repression and reprisals will almost necessarily be enormous in order to stay in power and deter any future thoughts of a state not governed by the IRGC.

Let’s face it, the air war could continue for a few months. IRGC assets have been heavily attritted already. The ability of the Iranians to impact the Guif states has been heavily disrupted.

Oil will flow and the Straits will be open / even if it takes a significant portion of DoD to do so.

Edit: and I don’t think this is comparable to Ukraine. The Ukrainians have been able to fight back and make the Russian pay. The ordinary population in Iran have no army, no real organization and no multinational parties that will step in and defend them. A Pol Pot style internal cleansing is not out of the question.

Both US Army SF and MARSOC are tailor built for supporting anti government opposition. I suspect that the CIA and SOCOM have been looking at who what are the best options here, and have been for some time.

Even without ‘boots’ on the ground we have history of arming opposition folks since the end of WW2.

I think both Bibi and POTUS have hitched their wagon to regime change - so they will double and triple down as needed.

 

[Czech_pivo]

He’s going to be ash inside of 48hrs. Neither the Israelis nor DJT will accept him as an option. That was pretty clear prior to his ‘election’, all the Council of Clerics did is put a target on themselves. They mistook the warning shot on their subordinates for a miss, and the option to opt for a moderate.



Agreed. Also we are now at the grandchildren of the revolution era in Iran. The majority of the population haven’t seen a really change in anything. They swapped the repressive regime of the Shah for a repressive regime of fundamentalist clerics. The economic situation has gotten worse for most (and it wasn’t great under the Shah) and the Shah’s dreaded secret police were coopted into the Regime.

How Iran’s Clerical Regime Rebuilt SAVAK into a Global Repression Machine - NCRI

Four-minute read The fall of the Shah in 1979 was widely seen as the end of SAVAK, Iran’s dreaded secret police. However, rather than dismantling this

www.ncr-iran.org

Let’s face it, the air war could continue for a few months. IRGC assets have been heavily attritted already. The ability of the Iranians to impact the Guif states has been heavily disrupted.

Oil will flow and the Straits will be open / even if it takes a significant portion of DoD to do so.


Both US Army SF and MARSOC are tailor built for supporting anti government opposition. I suspect that the CIA and SOCOM have been looking at who what are the best options here, and have been for some time.

Even without ‘boots’ on the ground we have history of arming opposition folks since the end of WW2.

I think both Bibi and POTUS have hitched their wagon to regime change - so they will double and triple down as needed.

They will double or triple only until the Gulf States and/or Saudi's tell them not to. IF the US cannot get the oil flowing consistently by the end of this week, the Gulf States will force Trump's hand.

 

[IKnowNothing]

The same, but I moved most holdings to cash before Christmas and I’m patiently waiting for a Black Swan event or a few baby Black Swan events to start buying back in.

I’m just always regularly contributing.

The interaction between these two thought processes makes me think Burry is onto something with his market decoupling / passive index funds as a time bomb theory.

It's most likely the flywheel keeps spinning, but if events lead to average millenial / genx couch potatos getting spooked en masse....

 

[ytz]

Oil will flow and the Straits will be open / even if it takes a significant portion of DoD to do so.

When and at what price? That's the question. Storage is filling up. By the end of this week shut downs will start. And when that happens, higher prices will be cemented for longer, even if the straits are opened up. But sure, instead of $150 oil, we'll have $100 oil.

 

[Czech_pivo]

When and at what price? That's the question. Storage is filling up. By the end of this week shut downs will start. And when that happens, higher prices will be cemented for longer, even if the straits are opened up. But sure, instead of $150 oil, we'll have $100 oil.

If the Iranians are smart they limit the drone strikes today, tomorrow, wednesday to very very small numbers, give the sense that things are dying down, then about 3pm NYC time on Thursday launch a massive drone strike across the Gulf and then go dark. Maybe do the same thing Friday morning at about 9:15am NYC time. IF they can play the long game here, they will win politically over the US.

 

[GR66]

He’s going to be ash inside of 48hrs. Neither the Israelis nor DJT will accept him as an option. That was pretty clear prior to his ‘election’, all the Council of Clerics did is put a target on themselves. They mistook the warning shot on their subordinates for a miss, and the option to opt for a moderate.

Assuming they can find him quicker than they found Bin Laden...

 

[ytz]

I get that we're all cheering on US/Israel. But it's a worthwhile bias check to just wargame the other side's perspective.

 

[KevinB]

If the Iranians are smart they limit the drone strikes today, tomorrow, wednesday to very very small numbers, give the sense that things are dying down, then about 3pm NYC time on Thursday launch a massive drone strike across the Gulf and then go dark. Maybe do the same thing Friday morning at about 9:15am NYC time. IF they can play the long game here, they will win politically over the US.

You are assuming two aspects, they have some degree of Command and Control, and they have any significant stockpiles.

I’d say the answer to both of those are a resounding no.

 

[KevinB]

I get that we're all cheering on US/Israel. But it's a worthwhile bias check to just wargame the other side's perspective.

Right now the US population for the most part is supporting this.
However we are fickle as a whole and I doubt that the late 79 early 1980 fuel lines and alternating days depending on ones license plate for getting gas would go over well.

However when you see what the US and Israelis have hit, the regime in Iran doesn’t have a lot of dry powder. Nor do they have any sort of coordination in response.

They can say the Straights are closed, but if they can’t really effect that in any degree, it doesn’t give them a lot of clout.

Hitting civilian infrastructure in the Gulf isn’t going to win the Iranian regime any friends. While yes none of those states are going to want put up with any significant issue to their economies or security situation. So while they may attempt to push back, none of them want an Israeli nuclear strike in Iran either.

That is the elephant in the room. Israel (and the US) will not accept a nuclear capable Iran, and without a Regime change, that is going to happen. So either the US/Israeli coalition succeeds in the overthrow — or somewhere Iran will be the world’s third live fire nuclear range event. Israel won’t think twice about it - as they know what can happen to them if Iran gets a bomb.


I suspect that was the option put on the table, and what drove the USG to commit to the current operation.

 

[daftandbarmy]

That is the elephant in the room. Israel (and the US) will not accept a nuclear capable Iran, and without a Regime change, that is going to happen. So either the US/Israeli coalition succeeds in the overthrow — or somewhere Iran will be the world’s third live fire nuclear range event. Israel won’t think twice about it - as they know what can happen to them if Iran gets a bomb.

I suspect that was the option put on the table, and what drove the USG to commit to the current operation.

And my guess is this whole show is also a warning to other rogue nuclear wannabes (looking at you North Korea)...

 

[brihard]

And my guess is this whole show is also a warning to other rogue nuclear wannabes (looking at you North Korea)...

For some reason that shows up as said by me, not Kev.

 

[daftandbarmy]

For some reason that shows up as said by me, not Kev.

Weird... I blame the time change

 

[KevinB]

And my guess is this whole show is also a warning to other rogue nuclear wannabes (looking at you North Korea)...

That ship sailed unfortunately NK is (most likely) a nuclear state.

The recent issues of some shipping from NK to Iran then attempted to Venezuela I suspect has something to do with all of this mess, and how POTUS placed Putin on the shit list.

 

[ytz]

Qatar is warning of $150 oil:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-15620643/Qatar-warns-oil-double-150-barrel-bring-economies-world.html

Long run, it'll be interesting to see what this does for renewables:

Renewable Energy and National Security

The wind and the sun don’t need to transit the Strait of Hormuz

paulkrugman.substack.com

 

[Czech_pivo]

You are assuming two aspects, they have some degree of Command and Control, and they have any significant stockpiles.

I’d say the answer to both of those are a resounding no.

Time will tell.

 

[ytz]

G7 calls emergency summit as oil prices hit largest single-day surge in history

Crude oil prices are experiencing the largest oil disruption in history, affecting a fifth of global supply, as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran threatens the global economy

www.themirror.com

 

[Halifax Tar]

If this was sustained it would be good for Alberta, no ? My understanding is Alberta needs a high barrel price to be profitable. Standing by for correction.

 

[brihard]

If this was sustained it would be good for Alberta, no ? My understanding is Alberta needs a high barrel price to be profitable. Standing by for correction.

Short term high prices is a nice windfall but should minimally impact production volume. consistently higher prices are a demand signal and will generally cause more production. In Alberta’s case it would make wells profitable that at lower prices are not. At least for Alberta’s case they have how a fair bit of production ready to ‘turn on’ pretty quickly if prices support it, rather than needing new exploration.

Now, as a variable on that- increasing production also presumes that there is a logistical capacity to handle getting more of your oil to market.

So, same oil for more $, yes, and in the short term. Higher prices leading to overall increase in supply takes longer and needs sustained higher prices.

Really this situation is a supply shock; rather than normal supply/demand fluctuation, there’s a fundamental disruption in the availability of actual supply. How long this lasts depends on how long that disruption lasts.

Smart money for Iran is to really double down on the ability to hit tankers at sea. Small maritime drones that can be launched from pretty much anywhere on the coast are likely their path forward. Basically plagiarize what Ukraine has been doing. If they still retain the capability, they can also try to damage longer lead time infrastructure at Gulf refineries and loading ports. Blowing up storage tanks looks spectacular, but doesn’t do a whole lot to the supply chain. I’m not enough of an oilologist to be able to point to a refinery and say what are the key choke points in production that are lengthy to repair or replace. But Iran definitely knows.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Good for BC too as LNG is rising.

 

[HavokFour]

View attachment 98858


Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Goodbye 2028 for the GOP, then.