Iran Super Thread- Merged

[ytz]

Something that really hasn't caught on more, that I am aware of because of family in the region, is concerns over food. Most of the Gulf countries import significant percentages of food. Like 80-90%. If shipping is consistently threatened, there's concerns they'll be running short soon. There's added complexity here that people are missing. It's not just oil and gas.

Oh and the desal plants.....

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Reports of minimal food, water and ammunition (20 bullets for every 2 IRGC) Also claims that the IRGC is refusing letting military injured into the hospitals as they are now reserved for IRGC wounded only.

 

[CBH99]

Reports of minimal food, water and ammunition (20 bullets for every 2 IRGC) Also claims that the IRGC is refusing letting military injured into the hospitals as they are now reserved for IRGC wounded only.

The IRGC has had the favour of the Iranian regime for years now, and have enjoyed the increase in funding & power over the regular military in recent years.

If thats the case for the IRGC, then the regular military pretty much doesn't exist as a force to even bother with.

Them taking over some hospitals & claiming them for their use only doesn't surprize me. This I find believable.


I suspect this isn't the case though. Iran has plenty of money available to equip it's IRGC - they have helicopters, flying boat things (pretty flippin' cool btw) and apparently even Kilo class submarines. With the constant tensions with it's neighbours, I doubt they cheaped out on their ammo budget...


Maybe having the regular Iranian military & IRGC fight each other was part of the calculus? Or at least a possibility that was considered?

(What that would look like in the bigger picture I haven't the faintest idea)

...


I haven't even considered the food security part of this

 

[OldSolduer]

The IRGC has had the favour of the Iranian regime for years now, and have enjoyed the increase in funding & power over the regular military in recent years.

If thats the case for the IRGC, then the regular military pretty much doesn't exist as a force to even bother with.

Them taking over some hospitals & claiming them for their use only doesn't surprize me. This I find believable.


I suspect this isn't the case though. Iran has plenty of money available to equip it's IRGC - they have helicopters, flying boat things (pretty flippin' cool btw) and apparently even Kilo class submarines. With the constant tensions with it's neighbours, I doubt they cheaped out on their ammo budget...


Maybe having the regular Iranian military & IRGC fight each other was part of the calculus? Or at least a possibility that was considered?

(What that would look like in the bigger picture I haven't the faintest idea)

...


I haven't even considered the food security part of this

I fervently hope the IRGC is totally destroyed. They are the SS of Iran.

Fuck them.

 

[CBH99]

I fervently hope the IRGC is totally destroyed. They are the SS of Iran.

Fuck them.

 

[Cloud Cover]

KC 135 went down in Western Iraq.

• mid air collision
• second aircraft landed
• search is underway for crew of tanker
• not attributable to hostile or friendly fire

https://twitter.com/x/status/2032211125882745265

 

[OldSolduer]

I fervently hope the IRGC is totally destroyed. They are the SS of Iran.

Fuck them.

This is the cost of NOT doing business when it could have been done.

This regime has had 47 years to “bed in” and exercise its horrible rule. Each time a line was drawn Iran stepped over it. The West redrew the lines each time.

The chickens have come home to roost.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Fascinating post by what appears to be an Iranian Air Force aircraft enthusiast, wherein he eulogized the pointless and dastardly intentional sacrificial loss of some very historical fleets of aircraft by Iranian regime in the current conflict.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2032089937751724262

For the loss of the Tomcats alone, of course the Regime must now be doomed to an eternal infestation of camel fleas in their anatomical tailpipes.

 

[Cloud Cover]

KC 135 went down in Western Iraq.

• mid air collision
• second aircraft landed
• search is underway for crew of tanker
• not attributable to hostile or friendly fire

https://twitter.com/x/status/2032211125882745265

The two aircraft involved were both KC-135.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2032214065880199456

 

[YZT580]

This is the cost of NOT doing business when it could have been done.

This regime has had 47 years to “bed in” and exercise its horrible rule. Each time a line was drawn Iran stepped over it. The West redrew the lines each time.

The chickens have come home to roost.

And we are still drawing lines and making excuses.

 

[OldSolduer]

And we are still drawing lines and making excuses.

It’s what we do best.

Peace in our time….

 

[armrdsoul77]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2032256392858395009

 

[FSTO]

Apologies if this has already been posted. But if try, wow!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/2032248093874249801

 

[armrdsoul77]

"The early phase of the Iran war is already displaying several recurring strategic patterns that have appeared repeatedly across modern conflicts. These patterns do not predict every event. But they help explain why wars that begin with expectations of rapid success often expand into much larger and more dangerous confrontations."

Four Strategic Patterns Now Visible in the Iran War

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The IRGC has had the favour of the Iranian regime for years now, and have enjoyed the increase in funding & power over the regular military in recent years.

If thats the case for the IRGC, then the regular military pretty much doesn't exist as a force to even bother with.

Them taking over some hospitals & claiming them for their use only doesn't surprize me. This I find believable.


I suspect this isn't the case though. Iran has plenty of money available to equip it's IRGC - they have helicopters, flying boat things (pretty flippin' cool btw) and apparently even Kilo class submarines. With the constant tensions with it's neighbours, I doubt they cheaped out on their ammo budget...


Maybe having the regular Iranian military & IRGC fight each other was part of the calculus? Or at least a possibility that was considered?

(What that would look like in the bigger picture I haven't the faintest idea)

...


I haven't even considered the food security part of this

Could be that the logistic side of the IRGC is not very strong and with a lot of leadership loss and communication breakdown, those that have the stockpiles are not releasing it or hoarding. Or they sold much of their stockpiles on the blackmarket years ago.

 

[ytz]

This is the cost of NOT doing business when it could have been done.

This regime has had 47 years to “bed in” and exercise its horrible rule. Each time a line was drawn Iran stepped over it. The West redrew the lines each time.

The chickens have come home to roost.

And we are still drawing lines and making excuses.

At what price?

And I mean that almost literally. Because I guarantee you that the Republicans will get a shellacking at the mid terms if gas is consistently over $4/gal. That price level takes out $200B of consumer spending from just households. And the US is among the least impacted. If this goes months, we're looking at 2008 type of global economic crisis.

I like the ambition. But I think a much better job needed to be done to explain this to the public. And a much more competent crew needed to execute. The very fact that these guys are telling Congress that they didn't anticipate Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz should tell you they aren't cut out to pull this off.

How Trump and His Advisers Miscalculated Iran’s Response to War

In the lead-up to the U.S.-Israeli attack, President Trump downplayed the risks to the energy markets as a short-term concern that should not overshadow the mission to decapitate the Iranian regime.

www.nytimes.com

This was never a mission to be pulled off on the fly. Why didn't they fill the SPR substantially before? Why didn't the plan to evacuate Americans from the region? Why didn't they deploy more air defence and plan for all the drone, missile and naval threats? The simple answer is that they are incompetent and imagined this would be like Venezuela.

But now if they fail to remove the regime, they won't get someone like Delcy. Mojtaba Khomeini is a parallel to Kim Jong Un. Just KJU is way more brutal and repressive than his dad, this is exactly how MK is reputed to be (relative to his father). And MK actually fought in the Iran-Iraq war. Read up on how brutal that war was. Nobody who survived that has any humanity left.

 

[CBH99]

Could be that the logistic side of the IRGC is not very strong and with a lot of leadership loss and communication breakdown, those that have the stockpiles are not releasing it or hoarding. Or they sold much of their stockpiles on the blackmarket years ago.

It could also be that the Americans are waging a type of war that the Iranians simply can't fight back against...

How does the IRGC fight back against 3 carrier strike groups + hundreds of ground based fighters?

Space based assets? (Including some sort of space based DEW I saw video of?)

High flying bombers like the B-2 and B-52, especially in an environment totally saturated with jamming signals?


The ammo issue may be irrelevant at this point because there isn't anything for them to really shoot at. Not with rifles anyway, or even AA batteries.

...

And then there is undoubtedly armed rebel groups or some sort of armed underground movement that will be assisted and directed by US SOF & intelligence agencies to do some damage from the inside...

Hopefully a lot of the rank & file just go home. Be good parents, and good neighbours. Go home & take care of people.

This fight is so far beyond what an average Iranian soldier can possibly fight back against...it isn't a battle as much as it is a systematic dismantling of the regime and it's military assets.


Caveman vs Star Trek levels of tech overmatch here



EDIT - How do they fight back against that? Asymmetrically, I assume.

Cyber attacks. Sleeper cell attacks. Attacks on domestic infrastructure primarily in the US & Israel. Etc

 

[ytz]

How does the IRGC fight back against 3 carrier strike groups + hundreds of ground based fighters?

Space based assets? (Including some sort of space based DEW I saw video of?)

High flying bombers like the B-2 and B-52, especially in an environment totally saturated with jamming signals?

They don't. That's the easy answer.

They just have to survive to win.

And they are calculating that the American public (and Trump) will tire of $4 gas long before the IRGC and the clerics run out of leaders. Meanwhile, all they need ammo for is suppressing people at home.