Iran Super Thread- Merged

[QV]

POTUS has three more years in office. How are some going to manage?

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Other pieces of the chess board nobody is paying attention to:

Cuba confirms negotiations with US as country faces effects of oil blockade

Cuba's president confirmed the talks in a national broadcast as the country also said it would release 51 prisoners in "goodwill" gesture.

www.bbc.com

Oil, the crisis crushing Cuba and giving Trump new leverage

Fuel shortages are paralyzing the economy, while the United States is incentivizing the island’s private sector

english.elpais.com

Strait of Hormuz remains closed. America gets rid of another long-standing thorn in their side.

America is also one of the highest ranking energy independent Countries in the World. Given the fact they have most of the rest of the top 10 in their back pocket, including us, they are playing this game with an incredibly strong hand:

 

[Czech_pivo]

I understand people have an extreme dislike for DJT but wishing for his failure in this probably means the death of many American service people, and an extreme negative effect on the global SCs and economy, which will negatively effect us too.

Be careful what you wish for.

Agreed but it’s a double edged sword here. Success will only embolden him and the sycophants around him.
Will Cuba be next? What about Greenland and/or Canada?
Success in Iran will renforce delusions of grandeur.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Agreed but it’s a double edged sword here. Success will only embolden him and the sycophants around him.
Will Cuba be next? What about Greenland and/or Canada?
Success in Iran will renforce delusions of grandeur.

Why would we be upset about DJT removing a brutal communist dictatorship in Cuba? Canadians gonna miss cheap rum and shitty resorts?

 

[Czech_pivo]

POTUS has three more years in office. How are some going to manage?

That’s an assumption on your part.
The actuary tables don’t necessarily point to 3 more years.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Why would we be upset about DJT removing a brutal communist dictatorship in Cuba? Canadians gonna miss cheap rum and shitty resorts?

I didn’t say it would be necessarily a bad thing, I said it will reinforce delusions of grandeur and possible further invasions.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Cuba is next. And when they inevitably cause a refugee crisis into Florida and probably end up killing refugees on boats, he'll be yelling at Mexico to help. Or even possibly asking us.

Maybe Cuba opens up their jails again and points the way to free floatation devices on the beach.

 

[QV]

If Trump manages to take 3 x thorns in it's side off the chess board inside 18 months... well that is quite the accomplishment.

 

[QV]

Maybe Cuba opens up their jails again and points the way to free floatation devices on the beach.

And suffer the fate of the drug boats? I think one thing is obvious by now, Trump will use force if there is a threat to the US.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I didn’t say it would be necessarily a bad thing, I said it will reinforce delusions of grandeur and possible further invasions.

Good, get rid of all the Mullahs, Tin Pot Dictators and other assorted forces of destabilization. I'm 100% for it and it should have happened a long time ago.

The next thing that needs to happen is getting the Slavic brothers to stop killing each other and bring them both back into the Western fold completely.

Maybe Cuba opens up their jails again and points the way to free floatation devices on the beach.

Perfect, they can be given guns and turned back on Cuba, in exchange for citizenship, VA money and free education for their troubles. Bay of Pigs 2.0.

 

[Brad Sallows]

And how’s that ‘acting’ working out for them and this administration so far?

From their point of view, pretty well. They seem to be able to attack anywhere, just not everywhere. They've killed members of the leadership from the nominal political executive on down. They've written down much of Iran's big ticket military equipment. They can, undeniably, cripple just about any Iranian vital infrastructure they choose. From their remarks, they pay attention to favourable domestic polling and disregard unfavourable. If they care about the economic impacts on much of the world and the attacks on other nations in the region, they do a good job of looking like they actually don't, much; instead, they use the ill effects as a cudgel to demand others join their windmill tilt. They believe that some of the foreign weaponry provided by Russia and China to various clients did not perform as advertised. They believe they've got China on the backfoot, and another project - Cuba - ready to go. Their usual anti-Trump neo-con critics are mostly silent on ends and limiting themselves to complaining about the way the administration went about it (Iran has been a wish-we-could neo-con project since before Iraq). They don't show evidence that they feel themselves bound to fix Iran after they break it, so all the what-iffing about the inevitability of boots on the ground and a long war and all the other assorted fretting might just have them shaking their heads and laughing. If things go badly, they'll do what they always do: point to their achievements, state that they decided that was enough for now, walk away, and shrug off the criticism by claiming their unwillingness to do "forever war" is a plus.

What they believe might be at odds with what others believe, but the political rhetoric about international order just doesn't seem to move them at all (if they're trying to change it, why would they respect what they're trying to replace?), and they ignore critics, especially those who respond emotionally.

Sadly them ‘winning’ in Iran will only service to embolden the incompetent donkeys running the place and God knows what occurs next.

I doubt the ability of the IRGC regime to simply shrug it off. Iran was under various kinds of strain; none of what is happening is making the situation better; its domestic problems are going to be exacerbated; the regime only knows how to squeeze harder. Some people believe it emerges stronger; I believe it continues sliding down.

"The defeat of the US is inevitable; they are fools; I don't know why they even try. Iran will emerge victorious, more powerful, more unified, blah blah blah." Wishful thinking isn't a failing of only the Trump administration.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Other pieces of the chess board nobody is paying attention to:

Cuba might just read the room and negotiate a way out.