Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
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Other pieces of the chess board nobody is paying attention to:
www.bbc.com
english.elpais.com
Strait of Hormuz remains closed. America gets rid of another long-standing thorn in their side.
America is also one of the highest ranking energy independent Countries in the World. Given the fact they have most of the rest of the top 10 in their back pocket, including us, they are playing this game with an incredibly strong hand:
Cuba confirms negotiations with US as country faces effects of oil blockade
Cuba's president confirmed the talks in a national broadcast as the country also said it would release 51 prisoners in "goodwill" gesture.
www.bbc.com
Oil, the crisis crushing Cuba and giving Trump new leverage
Fuel shortages are paralyzing the economy, while the United States is incentivizing the island’s private sector
english.elpais.com
Strait of Hormuz remains closed. America gets rid of another long-standing thorn in their side.
America is also one of the highest ranking energy independent Countries in the World. Given the fact they have most of the rest of the top 10 in their back pocket, including us, they are playing this game with an incredibly strong hand:
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Agreed but it’s a double edged sword here. Success will only embolden him and the sycophants around him.
Will Cuba be next? What about Greenland and/or Canada?
Success in Iran will renforce delusions of grandeur.
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Why would we be upset about DJT removing a brutal communist dictatorship in Cuba? Canadians gonna miss cheap rum and shitty resorts?
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- Reaction score
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I didn’t say it would be necessarily a bad thing, I said it will reinforce delusions of grandeur and possible further invasions.
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QV
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And suffer the fate of the drug boats? I think one thing is obvious by now, Trump will use force if there is a threat to the US.
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Good, get rid of all the Mullahs, Tin Pot Dictators and other assorted forces of destabilization. I'm 100% for it and it should have happened a long time ago.
The next thing that needs to happen is getting the Slavic brothers to stop killing each other and bring them both back into the Western fold completely.
Perfect, they can be given guns and turned back on Cuba, in exchange for citizenship, VA money and free education for their troubles. Bay of Pigs 2.0.
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From their point of view, pretty well. They seem to be able to attack anywhere, just not everywhere. They've killed members of the leadership from the nominal political executive on down. They've written down much of Iran's big ticket military equipment. They can, undeniably, cripple just about any Iranian vital infrastructure they choose. From their remarks, they pay attention to favourable domestic polling and disregard unfavourable. If they care about the economic impacts on much of the world and the attacks on other nations in the region, they do a good job of looking like they actually don't, much; instead, they use the ill effects as a cudgel to demand others join their windmill tilt. They believe that some of the foreign weaponry provided by Russia and China to various clients did not perform as advertised. They believe they've got China on the backfoot, and another project - Cuba - ready to go. Their usual anti-Trump neo-con critics are mostly silent on ends and limiting themselves to complaining about the way the administration went about it (Iran has been a wish-we-could neo-con project since before Iraq). They don't show evidence that they feel themselves bound to fix Iran after they break it, so all the what-iffing about the inevitability of boots on the ground and a long war and all the other assorted fretting might just have them shaking their heads and laughing. If things go badly, they'll do what they always do: point to their achievements, state that they decided that was enough for now, walk away, and shrug off the criticism by claiming their unwillingness to do "forever war" is a plus.
What they believe might be at odds with what others believe, but the political rhetoric about international order just doesn't seem to move them at all (if they're trying to change it, why would they respect what they're trying to replace?), and they ignore critics, especially those who respond emotionally.
I doubt the ability of the IRGC regime to simply shrug it off. Iran was under various kinds of strain; none of what is happening is making the situation better; its domestic problems are going to be exacerbated; the regime only knows how to squeeze harder. Some people believe it emerges stronger; I believe it continues sliding down.
"The defeat of the US is inevitable; they are fools; I don't know why they even try. Iran will emerge victorious, more powerful, more unified, blah blah blah." Wishful thinking isn't a failing of only the Trump administration.
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Cuba might just read the room and negotiate a way out.
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Yes, the operation was already being declared a failure by the Anti-Trump camp mere hours after it had been launched. That's just Trump Derangement Syndrome being projected by the usual suspects.
Meanwhile, lots of reports that the regional Allies have been actively encouraging Trump to keep hitting Iran and hitting them hard:
The Saudis and Emiratis have built a backup to be able to bypass Hormuz and they have now activated it:
The two oil pipelines helping Saudi Arabia and UAE bypass the Strait of Hormuz
Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline are thought to be able to help partially offset the Strait of Hormuz blockage.
www.cnbc.com
Halifax Tar
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Because DJT could rescue a bus full of children and puppies from a fire and some would find a reason to call that a sin and geopolitical failure.
QV
Army.ca Veteran
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Yes, the operation was already being declared a failure by the Anti-Trump camp mere hours after it had been launched. That's just Trump Derangement Syndrome being projected by the usual suspects.
Meanwhile, lots of reports that the regional Allies have been actively encouraging Trump to keep hitting Iran and hitting them hard:
The Saudis and Emiratis have built a backup to be able to bypass Hormuz and they have now activated it:
The two oil pipelines helping Saudi Arabia and UAE bypass the Strait of Hormuz
Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline are thought to be able to help partially offset the Strait of Hormuz blockage.
As dumbfounding as that is, it should be anticipated with every single action the current POTUS takes at this point, regardless of the subject.
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Great, then they’ve got it all under control and all figured out. They don’t need anyone in NATO to go to the Strait of H or Japan, China or Australia to help them.
Good, end of this story, nothing more for us to talk about here.
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Not really, the Islamic Regime has burnt out it's support from the people. The people would be fighting them right now, but don't have the guns to do it. There was no where near the groundswell of support in Cuba at the time of the Bay of Pigs.
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The biggest weakness the Americans have is that they are running short on Destroyers due to their extensive global commitments and retirement of the Ticonderogas so they really don't have the #s or types of Ships necessary to escort vessels.
The only thing the rest could offer would be escort vessels.
This isn't really a problem for the Americans per se. As I stated above, they are energy independent so they may feel a little price tag shock at the pumps but they are the least impacted by this. It hurts their adversaries far more than it hurts them.
Their fleet can sit in the Arabian Sea/Indian Ocean and bombard Iran with impunity. I'm laughing at all the people who said Carriers were outdated...nothing better than a floating airbase carrying a larger air force than most nations possess, able to relocate at 35+kts per hour. Oh and that torpedoing of the Iranian Ship basically sent a message to everyone else... "don't even think of leaving port, or you'll face the same fate".
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Iran was desperately short of money (and water and energy) before all this. The Iranian regime is burning up it's capital reserves quickly. Russia is not in a position to help. China has sent some 30 trucks via a landbridge with some unknown cargo. However China can be kept out of this for the moment with negotiations. China does not want the conflict to continue and can't afford to pay high oil import prices forever. I suspect both the US and various groups planning for a transitionary government for Iran have promised that if the regime falls China will get access to Iranian oil at reasonable price at the very least. But I suspect the real cherry for China is being able to rebuild Iran's oil refining and production and long term contract at low prices to do so. So China has no desire to prolong this war as long as it impact oil flow. They are also busy making sure the Afghan-Pakistani war does not grow and those are both vassal states of China.
My guess is the ballistic missile attack will fairly soon stop. Those were a finite resource, depend on launchers (being heavily targeted) and require components that the regime cannot easily procure more of. However both aerial and marine drone attacks will continue as it is easier to build and conceal the aerial drones and to a lesser extend the marine drones. Then of course there is the issue of sweeping and clearing mines.
My guess is the ballistic missile attack will fairly soon stop. Those were a finite resource, depend on launchers (being heavily targeted) and require components that the regime cannot easily procure more of. However both aerial and marine drone attacks will continue as it is easier to build and conceal the aerial drones and to a lesser extend the marine drones. Then of course there is the issue of sweeping and clearing mines.
And while some may have immediately decried it as a failure, others among us immediately questioned whether the U.S. had actually applied proper strategic foresight to this, and whether they had properly considered risks and mapped out a realistic and viable theory of victory. Thus far the evidence at hand still does not really suggest that they have done those things. Clearly this has not gone quite as planned or intended, and it’s made the pronouncements of victory in the first days ring a bit hollow in light of the continued (and very much still to come) economic chaos, and the barely veiled threats that a purported allies had better help bail the U.S. out of its own mess.
To try to fob all these concerns and observations off as ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome’ is silly and disingenuous, and basically tries to ad hominem around valid critiques being levied at Trump’s strategizing.
Bigger picture and longer term we have further erosion in trust for the U.S., further erosion in the strength of America’s diplomatic relationships, long term harm to the economic and social security of the Gulf states, significant depletion of exquisite munitions, attrition of some very expensive defense capabilities, and a relative strengthening of China against the U.S.. All of these were foreseeable and foreseen, and were warned about.
Fortunately the U.S. military has lost few people so far and I hope that remains the case.
There does not appear to be any easy off ramp for Trump that will achieve whatever strategic objectives we’re able to discern. Iran remains an industrialized country of 90+ million with a technically capable and educated workforce, it has a lot of mountains to bury things under, and hardliners have much more ammunition now in the perennial power dynamics.
Any of this could change and I’ll reassess if it does. To this point a negative assessment of the trajectory the U.S. strategy is on is both grounded in fact and is reasonable.
