Iran Super Thread- Merged

[The Bread Guy]

Good, get rid of all the Mullahs, Tin Pot Dictators and other assorted forces of destabilization. I'm 100% for it and it should have happened a long time ago.

Problem is, the U.S. has a bit of a ... mixed history replacing mullahs and dictators with "same song, different key" leaders - including in Iran.

The next thing that needs to happen is getting the Slavic brothers to stop killing each other and bring them both back into the Western fold completely.

You know one side doesn't really see themselves as a "brother" in that one, given the history of abuse they underwent under a previous family arrangement, right?

Perfect, they can be given guns and turned back on Cuba, in exchange for citizenship, VA money and free education for their troubles. Bay of Pigs 2.0.

Somehow, that bit in yellow doesn't entirely sell the endeavour in an ... optimistic light

Doesn't really fit. The Trump administration doesn't look like it has any intention of remaking the country - regime removal, not regime change.

It may not look like it to you, but POTUS47 sure sounds like it to me

• "... There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s) ...
• "... Trump told Axios that Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the late Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, taking over as the new leader of the Islamic Republic is "unacceptable". He expressed a desire for a leader who would "bring harmony and peace to Iran" ..."

Sounds to me like "Pick whoever you like. No, not that guy. No, not him, either ..." Is that "intent of regime change"? I guess it's in the eye of the beholder.

 

[ytz]

This isn't really a problem for the Americans per se. As I stated above, they are energy independent

This is akin to saying that the Global Financial Crisis wouldn't impact anyone else. I'm fairly sure if the global economy is on fire, the Americans are not immune from feeling a bit warm.

 

[ytz]

Perhaps not a ‘short-term’ problem for America per se. However, the petrodollar has never been at risk like it is now. If America retreats to frack-frack-fracking and buying 1.5Tbbls of Canadian *WCS a year to flaunt its energy independence, having unbalanced the M.E., it’s only a matter of time until the petroyuan becomes a thing. It’s only a matter of time now, because I don’t think America has enough truly-strategic vision to keep the petrodollar alive.

The Iranians have literally floated a version of this idea. Saying they'll let through cargoes that aren't settled in dollars.

It's funny how so many people here are unabashedly pro-oil and yet completely clueless to those dollars circulate back to the US.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Meanwhile, time to brace for more backlash in the U.S.?

The Rabbit Hole: Iran’s Reach in the United States

While the war’s reverberations are largely felt outside the borders of the United States, the ramifications may soon begin here.

www.courtwatch.news

Archived link.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Well it's an apple vs oranges comparison...

The UK is a nuclear power with a nuclear deterrent constantly at sea & has 2 aircraft carriers to help execute on their foreign policy (whatever that may be these days)
------------

That being said...

The RN's current readiness seems pretty low, despite what their published numbers seem to indicate.

That isn't so much a criticism as it is a simple observation.

As of December, 2025, the MoD claims that just over 50% of their surface fleet is in an enhanced state of readiness, and their surface fleet stood at 53 ships. But in reality they didn't have a single platform available - old or new, to respond to an unexpected crisis.

Their entire attack submarine fleet is tied up, and only a single nuclear missile submarine is deployed as part of their year round deterrence.

No air defence destroyers were available. Apparently no Type 23's were available.

Neither carrier was immediately available

(Understandable, you can't just yank a carrier & air wing off a shelf and flick a switch...but they literally JUST came back from their tour which was intended to show

UK is a P5 nation as well, which changes all of the calculus.

As to the state of the RN there was (and still is) a camp that believes that RN had to cannibalize itself in order to float carriers - especially on the people front. That camp would say that the current state OF the RN was completely predictable, and equally avoidBLE

 

[ytz]

Can you explain to me what YOU believe American/Israeli strategic objectives are?

If recent rumours are to be believe, he thought he'd get a poll bump like Bush after 9/11 cause that is what his son in law told him.

He's openly saying he was surprised Iran attacked the rest of the Gulf:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2033606083038875863

I think he was emboldened by Venezuela and thought he would go down as a hero for getting rid of the Mullahs and remaking the Middle East. Unfortunately, regime change isn't easy. And literally everything achieved on the military side can be undone in due course. So not really an accomplishment without actual regime change.

This is where Israel is way more brutal and practical in a way. They are fine with Iran as a failed state, if it gets rid of the regime. Apparently, hardliners in Israel have been advocating for the bombing of Iranian oil infrastructure. Not sure, Trump would want to go that far.

 

[Brad Sallows]

And?
What’s the plan?
We still just show up with a frigate or two and then what?

Maybe just show up to accompany the "neutral" shipping Iran says it won't attack? Sometimes an honest man needs a little help to stay honest.

Doing nothing and potentially sucking up more damage than necessary is still a CoA, though.

It's not everyone else's fault, but everyone else conceivably has some power to alleviate the situation. Think of it as picking up some else's dogshit so that the park isn't closed to all dogs, including yours.

 

[Maxman1]

China has sent some 30 trucks via a landbridge with some unknown cargo.

There's a simple solution to that.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Whats actually going on in Venezuela? Has anything changed or did they just swap out leaders?

Wait and see. Either the government improves its behaviour, or it doesn't. Effectively, just a swap.

The theme seems to be "Remove shit-disturbing leadership and give country an opportunity to adjust. Repeat as necessary." If it works now and then, it's a fairly cheap and stark solution.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Sounds to me like "Pick whoever you like. No, not that guy. No, not him, either ..." Is that "intent of regime change"? I guess it's in the eye of the beholder.

That's effectively what happened in Venezuela. Maybe that's all Trump wants. Iranians might want more, like a constitutional convention and different structure of government. It doesn't look like the US will force one on them. "Regime" being "system of government", not "person", if the US doesn't force a system of government on Venezuela or Iran, it's not really changing regimes.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Maybe just show up to accompany the "neutral" shipping Iran says it won't attack? Sometimes an honest man needs a little help to stay honest.

Doing nothing and potentially sucking up more damage than necessary is still a CoA, though.

It's not everyone else's fault, but everyone else conceivably has some power to alleviate the situation. Think of it as picking up some else's dogshit so that the park isn't closed to all dogs, including yours.

Have you forgotten that Iran labelled the RCN a ‘terrorist organization.’
Explain why we’d send a frigate into that area?
Funny you mention the dog shit example. I’ve got a dog and I religiously clean up after him. I’ve gone so far to clean up others messes that they’ve chosen not to by delivering it directly to their front step outside their front door. I’m sure that there’s been a few mishaps when they’ve left the house.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

And?
What’s the plan?
We still just show up with a frigate or two and then what?

There are literal existing Task Forces that a frigate or two could be bolted on to. CTF152 for instance, which is 100% dedicated to security in the Gulf, and largely run by GCC members. Given that Iran went and decided to start smacking all their neighbors instead of just the USA and Israel, there is a pretty clear Casus Belli for some sort of retaliation. Dust off the plan for Op FRICTION and send them in.

This is akin to saying that the Global Financial Crisis wouldn't impact anyone else. I'm fairly sure if the global economy is on fire, the Americans are not immune from feeling a bit warm.

Never said they would be immune but it's also not the same at all. Some will feel the effects more than others. Some will also be net benefactors of the current situation. The whole premise of everyone else's argument seems to be solely focusing on the Americans "destabilizing" the region while ignoring the fact that Iran are a far larger force of destabilization regionally and globally.

Have you forgotten that Iran labelled the RCN a ‘terrorist organization.’
Explain why we’d send a frigate into that area?
Funny you mention the dog shit example. I’ve got a dog and I religiously clean up after him. I’ve gone so far to clean up others messes that they’ve chosen not to by delivering it directly to their front step outside their front door. I’m sure that there’s been a few mishaps when they’ve left the house.

Funny, I literally sailed through there and could have thrown a grenade at a certain irritant vessel, they were that close .

 

[Brad Sallows]

Have you forgotten that Iran labelled the RCN a ‘terrorist organization.’
Explain why we’d send a frigate into that area?

I already explained. If Canada hasn't much direct need for oil from that part of the world and it's safer to just put up with high prices, we can do that.

If what you're getting at is "why would we take the risk", I suppose in part it would be a measure of how seriously we take them and whether we think they'll find the time during this mess to make a Canadian ship a priority target.

 

[QV]

Canada imports about 10% of it's oil imports from the ME. So not that much.

The US imports even less.

 

[Czech_pivo]

There are literal existing Task Forces that a frigate or two could be bolted on to. CTF152 for instance, which is 100% dedicated to security in the Gulf, and largely run by GCC members. Given that Iran went and decided to start smacking all their neighbors instead of just the USA and Israel, there is a pretty clear Casus Belli for some sort of retaliation. Dust off the plan for Op FRICTION and send them in.



Never said they would be immune but it's also not the same at all. Some will feel the effects more than others. Some will also be net benefactors of the current situation. The whole premise of everyone else's argument seems to be solely focusing on the Americans "destabilizing" the region while ignoring the fact that Iran are a far larger force of destabilization regionally and globally.



Funny, I literally sailed through there and could have thrown a grenade at a certain irritant vessel, they were that close .

The Saudis and UAE have 9 Frigates and 18 Corvettes between them - what are they doing right now?
It’s their oil that’s being threatened, what is their navy doing to protect their own livelihoods?
Tell me how much money do those countries spend on shiny new weapons each year? Are they completely incompetent, incapable or that inept that they can’t add value to the US’s assets in the area?
They have been attacked, they have had citizens die, they have had oil infrastructure destroyed - it’s time for them to get off their asses and defend their own livelihoods.
I call BS on the need for Canada and the others to go.
No one consulted any of us and sending our assets to be drone magnets is utter madness.

 

[QV]

Sounds like the Iranians and the US have opened up a comms channel again and according to the US, Iran wants to deal.

When you wipe the upper deck a few times, attitudes can change.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

The Saudis and UAE have 9 Frigates and 18 Corvettes between them - what are they doing right now?
It’s their oil that’s being threatened, what is their navy doing to protect their own livelihoods?
Tell me how much money do those countries spend on shiny new weapons each year? Are they completely incompetent, incapable or that inept that they can’t add value to the US’s assets in the area?
They have been attacked, they have had citizens die, they have had oil infrastructure destroyed - it’s time for them to get off their asses and defend their own livelihoods.
I call BS on the need for Canada and the others to go.
No one consulted any of us and sending our assets to be drone magnets is utter madness.

Arab militaries are inept. They buy tons of new gear but their militaries are generally incompetent, especially the Saudis.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but we've been operating in the Persian Gulf for decades. Really up until the current political shift in Canada, which saw us diverge away from our traditional allies in favour of our "Post Nation-State" postering.

The Iranians, like the Venezuelans, basically stole what was built there. They weren't capable of building any of it, but they were certainly capable of stealing it. Time to take it back. Also, they've repeatedly attacked Western interests, including our soldiers. They also spread drugs to our streets and are a huge contributor to the narcotics problem plaguing our streets. Time to hammer em!