Iran Super Thread- Merged

[rmc_wannabe]

I’m not sure how many ‘D’s of chess this is.

It's the maze on the childrens placemat menu.

 

[GR66]

Wow. Iran fired two ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, a range of some 4000km. One failed mid flight, another was shot down by the U.S. Navy. That’s a bit of a big-balls move by Iran.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-updates-2026/card/iran-targeted-diego-garcia-base-with-ballistic-missiles-rb7MdZW1CfwRTauDYHOt

I suggest you re-read your history of WWII. While, for the Blitz and the V-1 campaigns, Londoners knew what was coming and could shelter, the V-2 made absolutely no noise and gave no warning whatsoever. The Londoners learned of a V-2 arrival when a city block somewhere just blew up. Since they were imprecise, nobody knew who or where the next hit would be. That stress from the V-2 campaign almost broke the Londoners' morale and psychologically affected quite a large number of them. Based on historical research shortly after the war, it was the one campaign (V-2) that caused the most distress to the City's inhabitants in the whole war.

Now take that and the 4000Km range circle and see who could be targeted in the West or the middle east and, unlike the first two aimed at DG who went under the civilians' "Radar", hit a city without warning a few times and the population will be screaming for action, and that would lead to an all out war in the M.E.

In fact, Tehran to London isn't much further than Tehran to Diego Garcia. I wonder how the strong the ABM defences in Southern England are?

Not saying it would be in Iran's interest to do so, but just pointing out how easily this could seriously escalate.

 

[daftandbarmy]

In fact, Tehran to London isn't much further than Tehran to Diego Garcia. I wonder how the strong the ABM defences in Southern England are?

Not saying it would be in Iran's interest to do so, but just pointing out how easily this could seriously escalate.

They wouldn't want to blow up their expensive flats in Belgravia

 

[Cloud Cover]

Mm hm. We’ll see more shift to oil contracts settled in other currencies out of this.

Canadian Tire money for the win.

 

[Brad Sallows]

So they are allowing Iran to get paid legally for this oil which in turn they can use that money to continue to pay their supporters within Iran to continue to kill/suppress anyone protesting against the regime. Does that sum it up nicely?

Yes. Iran gets its money, and a slight bit of economic pressure is relieved. Both sides get something. The Iranian government of course has to decide what mix of guns and butter is imperative for its survival at this point.

It's not the first unusual trade-off. Ukraine kept pipelines open from Russia to Europe for a few years before turning them off, and might turn them on again. That can be framed the same way: Russia got paid legally and could use that money to continue to attack Ukraine.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Now take that and the 4000Km range circle and see who could be targeted in the West or the middle east and, unlike the first two aimed at DG who went under the civilians' "Radar", hit a city without warning a few times and the population will be screaming for action, and that would lead to an all out war in the M.E.

It might, but it would be terror bombing. That's a different context than long-range attacks on military forces and military-supporting infrastructure.

Politicians caving to terror bombing would be an interesting lesson.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Politicians caving to terror bombing would be an interesting lesson.

You mean like President Reagan after the bombing of the Marine Corps barracks in Lebanon?

 

[Brad Sallows]

You mean like President Reagan after the bombing of the Marine Corps barracks in Lebanon?

That was a military target. The distinction between military and civilian is critical here.

 

[brihard]

It might, but it would be terror bombing. That's a different context than long-range attacks on military forces and military-supporting infrastructure.

Politicians caving to terror bombing would be an interesting lesson.

Yeah, I don’t see them just lobbing rounds into population centers. And they can’t have many of those missiles at all. I think yesterday was a demonstration of capability and defiance; “if you walk away from this, know that you haven’t won”.

I could see them firing at a base or two that are directly connected to attacks. That said, if it was a low volume of missiles I think NATO’s collective ABM would have things covered?

 

[Brad Sallows]

I think yesterday was a demonstration of capability and defiance;

Yes. Iran seems to have more capability (range) than some people thought and have conveniently confirmed a new minimum. Some will take that as a warning, and some as a challenge; of the latter, some will regard it as an unacceptable risk.

 

[Jarnhamar]

We claim to be a middle power and want to maintain influence in that region, it means we needed to have a presence (even a token on) in the region.

Canadadian politicians talk like we have a few WW2 size divisions behind us.

 

[brihard]

Yes. Iran seems to have more capability (range) than some people thought and have conveniently confirmed a new minimum. Some will take that as a warning, and some as a challenge; of the latter, some will regard it as an unacceptable risk.

Mm hm. Unfortunately Iran is also proving a lot of its engineering this fight, making the subsequent production the work of technicians. If the regime does not fall as a result of this conflict, they’ll have a better sense of what to rebuild, and where to rebuild it for future resilience.

Now, we have no idea what sort of throw weight their IRBMs have. Firing something at D.G. doesn’t tell us how much warhead payload it can carry. But it’s a new high water mark for proven range, and Iran will just keep progressing from there.

I suspect that the future will see a lot of IRBMs based in more eastern Iran out of range of anything except strategic bombers. While effective theatre ABM can pull much of the potential sting out, it may deter The European allies from further cooperation with subsequent rounds of military action in future.

Given that the U.S. isn’t even identifying regime change as a war aim, I think it’s only prudent to assume this will continue.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Ummm...to get to Kharg Island you'd need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and along almost the entire coastline of Iran. I very seriously doubt that even this administration would do something so stupid.

If they were planning on taking Kharg Island I'd be watching for the 82nd Airborne to be moved into theatre rather than another ARG, but to be honest I don't see the point of dropping a bunch of troops 35km off the mainland where they can be targeted by drones when they can halt any Iranian oil operations there through aerial interdiction.

As far as the Marines go, I'm not even sure what target on the Iranian mainland would make a significant military difference in this war without putting their ships and troops at unnecessary risk.

There are numerous small island s and one large one right at the bend. The large on would make sense, but not with only about 1200 marines to actually land and fight with, so they might land, and seize the smaller islands first. Clearing them of any military related stuff. There were protests on the bigger island, so the population there may be supportive.

 

[GK .Dundas]

Canadadian politicians talk like we have a few WW2 size divisions behind us.

The disturbing part is that a fair number actually thinks we do.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Mm hm. Unfortunately Iran is also proving a lot of its engineering this fight, making the subsequent production the work of technicians. If the regime does not fall as a result of this conflict, they’ll have a better sense of what to rebuild, and where to rebuild it for future resilience.

Now, we have no idea what sort of throw weight their IRBMs have. Firing something at D.G. doesn’t tell us how much warhead payload it can carry. But it’s a new high water mark for proven range, and Iran will just keep progressing from there.

I suspect that the future will see a lot of IRBMs based in more eastern Iran out of range of anything except strategic bombers. While effective theatre ABM can pull much of the potential sting out, it may deter The European allies from further cooperation with subsequent rounds of military action in future.

Given that the U.S. isn’t even identifying regime change as a war aim, I think it’s only prudent to assume this will continue.

If the regime survives, they are not going to have anywhere near the funds to rebuild their arsenal. They are going to spend most of their monies in repressing the people and that is going to reduce the economy. Just repairing the day to day policing structure is going to keep them busy for years.

 

[brihard]

If the regime survives, they are not going to have anywhere near the funds to rebuild their arsenal. They are going to spend most of their monies in repressing the people and that is going to reduce the economy. Just repairing the day to day policing structure is going to keep them busy for years.

I’m reasonably confident they can manage multiple lines of effort at once. They’ll sure as hell leverage their ability to choke off trade to get some further concessions on sanctions and oil shipping. China will remain happy to take Iran’s oil and to keep supporting them as a foil to the U.S. and its allies, as will Russia.

Everyone else will adapt too, of course. And yes, Iran has a lot of rebuilding to do. But if they prove their ability to survive this, Russia and China will probably more confidently reinforce success.

 

[Maxman1]

FDU frog persons to clear marine uxo and mines
Or
Donuts

Next edit:

This tweet genuinely made me laugh out loud.
View attachment 99105

There's a flag behind the guy on the right, but I thought he was wearing a pointy wizard hat and now I can't unsee that.

It’s Hungry Hungry Hippos. MAGA just thinks that’s chess.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Given that the U.S. isn’t even identifying regime change as a war aim,

Wait! ... What? There are war aims???

 

[ytz]

And this is why people should red team....

Iran believes it's winning and now wants major concessions.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-negotiations-demands-85555522

 

[Czech_pivo]

There are numerous small island s and one large one right at the bend. The large on would make sense, but not with only about 1200 marines to actually land and fight with, so they might land, and seize the smaller islands first. Clearing them of any military related stuff. There were protests on the bigger island, so the population there may be supportive.

Would be interested in seeing the logistics behind the feeding, hydrating and sheltering those Marines on that island on a consistent basis.