Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Colin Parkinson]

What does “clear the strait” mean to you?

The problem set here isn’t one of physical control in a given moment, but rather the ability of Iran to selectively threaten shipping enough to at a minimum make it uninsurable, and to pressure commodity trade. That’s gonna be a tough nut to crack.

Reducing their ability to observe and interfere. The islands have always been an issue and Iran uses them as part of their control network. Denying them the smaller Islands certainly helps to keep the Straits open. Really the bigger island of Qeshm would be ideal to wrestle from their control, but I don't think the US have the troops to do that, unless the islanders raise up, as I recall there were protests there early on. The IRGC does not have limitless resources either and 80 million+ people in the country that would like to see them dead. I believe they are using up their existing resources and are going to struggle once that stockpile is gone.

 

[brihard]

Reducing their ability to observe and interfere. The islands have always been an issue and Iran uses them as part of their control network. Denying them the smaller Islands certainly helps to keep the Straits open. Really the bigger island of Qeshm would be ideal to wrestle from their control, but I don't think the US have the troops to do that, unless the islanders raise up, as I recall there were protests there early on. The IRGC does not have limitless resources either and 80 million+ people in the country that would like to see them dead. I believe they are using up their existing resources and are going to struggle once that stockpile is gone.

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That’s a rather optimistic notion of how easily they should be able to blind Iran’s SA of the general movement of large merchant vessels…

 

[Cloud Cover]

If the US is determined to take those islands and hold them with little interference, they are going to need one one hell of a distraction elsewhere in Iran to keep the regime occupied with something even more pressing.

 

[NavyShooter]

I don't for a second think that the US is going to put those marines on Kharg island.

They'll go for one or more of the small islands in the straits first.