Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Cloud Cover]

Well came in a dream is the driving force behind Islam claim to Jerusalem, so dreamer can have long lasting effects.

Maybe the U.S. seized a tanker?

Is this mysterious gift made of wood and does it possibly resemble a large wooden horse?

 

[PrairieFella]

UAE seem to do fairly well in Yemen, KSA on the other hand......

My guess is occupying Islands until they are negotiated off, if ever.

Bombing some semi-literate peasants in the Yemeni hinterland is not the same as going against a modern militsry with high morale and moderate kit.

 

[dapaterson]

Bombing some semi-literate peasants in the Yemeni hinterland is not the same as going against a modern militsry with high morale and moderate kit.

Are you suggesting that the entire Canadian Army is built on a throne of lies?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Bombing some semi-literate peasants in the Yemeni hinterland is not the same as going against a modern militsry with high morale and moderate kit.

I might actually give the edge to the Houthi as the better solider. They are quite good light infantry. The Iranian Army might not actually fight, the IRGC and the Basij milita might, but the first is mostly made up of mafia muscle types and the other paid mercenaries used to going after unarmed civilians. There is a element within the IRGC that is quite good, but where they are located and how many is anyone's guess. Likely protecting the remaining leadership.

 

[Furniture]

Bombing some semi-literate peasants in the Yemeni hinterland is not the same as going against a modern militsry with high morale and moderate kit.

After a few weeks of bombing, how modern and capable is the IRGC?

As pointed out up thread a bit, the Gulf States may not like the war they are in, but I suspect they will like a dominant Iran even less. It is likely that they will support a prolonged war, if they think they can remove the threat to the straits that the current Iranian regime poses.

 

[OldSolduer]

Is this mysterious gift made of wood and does it possibly resemble a large wooden horse?

Or a rabbit?

A large wooden badger?

 

[KevinB]

Bombing some semi-literate peasants in the Yemeni hinterland is not the same as going against a modern militsry with high morale and moderate kit.

Fortunately Iran is none of those.


For those expecting massive Iranian partisan activity, UW 101 would strongly recommend against that in most areas. The key to anti regime activism in most areas of Iran at this point is target collection, and internal security. The IRGC has penetrated most of Iranian society, so groups are going to move very slowly in terms of their actions and expansion, least they be outed and eliminated.

 

[PrairieFella]

Fortunately Iran is none of those.

We said that plenty about the Taliban too but you guys still did Saigon Airlift 2: Electric Boogaloo. Heck, in the region the US had to reach a deal with the Houthis. Its proving incredibly hard to go on the offensive with motivated adversaries on the defensive, regardless of technological overmatch. Perhaps Ive just learned my lesson about underestimating my enemy. Respect your enemy, they have a vote in conflict. But hey, take them lightly at your own peril. Itll be American troops catching drones to the face, not Canadians.

 

[ytz]

It is likely that they will support a prolonged war, if they think they can remove the threat to the straits that the current Iranian regime poses.

Absent a ground presence in Iran this isn't possible. And the Gulf States risk massive and somewhat unrecoverable economic losses, the longer this goes on. I don't think it's clear cut they'd support a long campaign.

 

[KevinB]

We said that plenty about the Taliban too but you guys still did Saigon Airlift 2: Electric Boogaloo. Heck, in the region the US had to reach a deal with the Houthis.

Do not mistake Government decisions for lack of Military capability.

It’s proving incredibly hard to go on the offensive with motivated adversaries on the defensive, regardless of technological overmatch. Perhaps Ive just learned my lesson about underestimating my enemy. Respect your enemy, they have a vote in conflict.

Or maybe it’s just the lack of willingness to exert force in a meaningful manner, and over a required period of time.

But hey, take them lightly at your own peril. Itll be American troops catching drones to the face, not Canadians.

FPV Drones are a social media clickbait their military value is very limited.

The biggest issue with the entire Iranian ‘campaign’ is the lack of a defined goal. What is the planned end state?

Folks from all walks of life seem to have forgotten how many troops it required and how many years it took to change Post WW2 Germany and Japan. If you get into ‘nation building’ you need to think in a decade or more and a few million troops.

Otherwise you waste blood and treasure for nothing.


I spent a decent amount of my adult life in Iraq and Afghanistan. I am not sure (well I am sure they don’t) that the West has the stomach to do what is required.

So the question is what does half measures get us?

 

[Jarnhamar]

We said that plenty about the Taliban too but you guys still did Saigon Airlift 2: Electric Boogaloo.

555 Canadians helped.

Itll be American troops catching drones to the face, not Canadians.

You don't think Carney is willing to put CAF members in harms way to appease an angry vengeful Trump?

 

[PrairieFella]

Do not mistake Government decisions for lack of Military capability.

Irrelevant. If a government is unwilling to use that military capability in any circumstance, including the collapse of a 20 year stabilization effort or to prevent the attack of merchant shipping by irregulars then whats the point of having it? War is just politics by other means, policy decisions are the nerve signals of that military capability, not separate from it.

Or maybe it’s just the lack of willingness to exert force in a meaningful manner, and over a required period of time.

"If we just cut the Ho Chi Minh Trail the NVA will collapse"

FPV Drones are a social media clickbait their military value is very limited.

Back to politics by other means - will a few dozen jarheads catching FPVs on reddit and twitter sit well with the American public when there is no defined objective and it seems to be only serving Israeli and Gulf State interests? Their military value in case is propaganda and adding uncertainty into the equation for any ground forces.

The biggest issue with the entire Iranian ‘campaign’ is the lack of a defined goal. What is the planned end state?

I agree 100%

Folks from all walks of life seem to have forgotten how many troops it required and how many years it took to change Post WW2 Germany and Japan. If you get into ‘nation building’ you need to think in a decade or more and a few million troops.

Otherwise you waste blood and treasure for nothing.

I also agree 100% with this. Thats why tearing up the JCPOA, antagonizing Iran and assassinating the only person keeping them from a nuke via religious ordinances was so foolish imo. Unless theyre willing to occupy Iran with a couple million troops and build a new society ground up - whats the plan?

 

[PrairieFella]

555 Canadians helped.

Neat - but not relevant to the discussion.

You don't think Carney is willing to put CAF members in harms way to appease an angry vengeful Trump?

I dont. I think we're following along with the remainder of the American aligned middle powers and not touching this with a ten foot pole, good. The IRGC declared the RCN a terrorist organization, do we want to put our boys anywhere in range of those drones and seaskimmers when we stand to gain very little from that?

 

[KevinB]

Irrelevant. If a government is unwilling to use that military capability in any circumstance, including the collapse of a 20 year stabilization effort or to prevent the attack of merchant shipping by irregulars then whats the point of having it?

Agreed.

War is just politics by other means, policy decisions are the nerve signals of that military capability, not separate from it.

They are separate despite what On War may describe. Capabilities and Willingness to use them are two separate items.
The Military has the capability to glass Iran - but that doesn’t mean it will get done.

"If we just cut the Ho Chi Minh Trail the NVA will collapse"

Again Political errors / after Tet the VC was decimated and the NVA in RV was mangled. But Politics played its card and the American public decided it was time to bring the ball home.

Back to politics by other means - will a few dozen jarheads catching FPVs on reddit and twitter still well with the American public when there is no defined objective and it seems to be only serving Israeli and Gulf State interests? Their military value in case is propaganda and adding uncertainty into the equation for any ground forces.

I don’t disagree. But it won’t be significant from a Military aspect. Losing a few hundred troops while awful, doesn’t affect the capability of the Military to wage war.

I agree 100%

I also agree 100% with this. Thats why tearing up the JCPOA, antagonizing Iran and assassinating the only person keeping them from a nuke via religious ordinances was so foolish imo. Unless theyre willing to occupy Iran with a couple million troops and build a new society ground up - whats the plan?

Exactly.

Other than we need to understand that the other option was Israel conducting a nuclear strike in Iran.

So now the pile of shit we are in, isn’t as bad as it could have been.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The biggest issue with the entire Iranian ‘campaign’ is the lack of a defined goal. What is the planned end state?

But Kevin, wasn't that the same issue with both Iraq and Afghanistan? The naive belief that 'democracy' could be installed in both places by picking a person that the US - not the people - wanted to run the country and do their bidding?

In the case of Iran, they have at least dropped the facade of 'democracy' being installed.

 

[OldSolduer]

But Kevin, wasn't that the same issue with both Iraq and Afghanistan? The naive belief that 'democracy' could be installed in both places by picking a person that the US - not the people - wanted to run the country them and their bidding?

In the case of Iran, they have at least dropped the facade of 'democracy' being installed.

Democracy- you can’t install democracy in places that have never known democracy.

Case in point- Russia

 

[Czech_pivo]

Democracy- you can’t install democracy in places that have never known democracy.

Case in point- Russia

Oh I 100% agree - but this has been the first point of order for the US for a few decades now. Look at South Vietnam. Hell, I would argue that South Korea is the only (outside of Germany and Japan) success that the US has had and that is still a work in progress as they've had a few dictatorships, military governments and most recently a coup that almost succeeded - but overall they are on the path towards a fully functional democracy.

 

[GK .Dundas]

But Kevin, wasn't that the same issue with both Iraq and Afghanistan? The naive belief that 'democracy' could be installed in both places by picking a person that the US - not the people - wanted to run the country and do their bidding?

In the case of Iran, they have at least dropped the facade of 'democracy' being installed.

I suspect Trump is worried that if they successfully installed Democracy in Iran. Next they might want to do it in Washington.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Neat - but not relevant to the discussion.

You said "you guys still did Saigon Airlift 2: Electric Boogaloo."
I'm just pointing out it wasn't just Americans doing that. GAC employees left quite a mess as I recall when they were first out on Saigon Airlift part deux.

I dont. I think we're following along with the remainder of the American aligned middle powers and not touching this with a ten foot pole, good. The IRGC declared the RCN a terrorist organization, do we want to put our boys anywhere in range of those drones and seaskimmers when we stand to gain very little from that?

I think Carney is wisely more afraid of what Trump throwing a tantrum can do to us than the IRGC. We mostly likely won't go there, but Carney has already signaled it's not set in stone that we don't.

 

[Remius]

Democracy- you can’t install democracy in places that have never known democracy.

Case in point- Russia

They sort of did. But the US didn’t like who they picked so staged a coup, installing the Shah who was no Angel which eventually led to the monsters taking over in the 70s.

The US created this mess after WW2 while flexing its new found power and position in the free world.