Iran Super Thread- Merged

[HavokFour]

Someone has realized they've thoroughly stepped in it.

Exclusive: US intelligence warns Iran unlikely to ease Hormuz Strait chokehold soon, sources say

Recent U.S. intelligence reports warn that Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz any time soon because its grip on the world’s most vital oil artery provides the only real leverage it has over the United States, according to three sources familiar with the ‌matter.

www.reuters.com

Meanwhile...

Trump claims Starmer is weak as he mocks PM and UK aircraft carriers

Footage shows US president saying UK ‘should be our best’ ally and accusing PM of prevarication over sending ships

www.theguardian.com

This says a lot.

“But should be our best but they weren’t our best. I said: ‘You have two, old broken-down aircraft carriers, do you think you could send them over?’

“‘Ohhh, I’ll have to ask my team.’

“I said: ‘You’re the prime minister, you don’t have to.’

“‘No, no, no, I have to ask my team. My team has to meet, we’re meeting next week.’

“But the war already started. Next week the war’s going to be over … in three days.”

The remarks were made at a lunch that was not open to the press. It was released by the White House on a social media channel but later deleted. However, it was downloaded and republished by a politics reporter for the US website Business Insider.

 

[brihard]

Not clear how solid this is, but there may have been two A-10s downed; one in the Gulf, one crashed in Kuwait, both supporting the F-15 rescue. The poster is claiming CENTCOM sources for this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2040196563247436134

 

[Kirkhill]

Someone has realized they've thoroughly stepped in it.

Exclusive: US intelligence warns Iran unlikely to ease Hormuz Strait chokehold soon, sources say

Recent U.S. intelligence reports warn that Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz any time soon because its grip on the world’s most vital oil artery provides the only real leverage it has over the United States, according to three sources familiar with the ‌matter.

www.reuters.com

Meanwhile...

Trump claims Starmer is weak as he mocks PM and UK aircraft carriers

Footage shows US president saying UK ‘should be our best’ ally and accusing PM of prevarication over sending ships

www.theguardian.com

This says a lot.

He isn't wrong on Starmer.

Starmer has heard "I'll take that under advisement" one too many times. It is now who he is. He can't make a decision on his own.

 

[brihard]

Meanwhile...

Trump claims Starmer is weak as he mocks PM and UK aircraft carriers

Footage shows US president saying UK ‘should be our best’ ally and accusing PM of prevarication over sending ships

www.theguardian.com

This says a lot.

He isn't wrong on Starmer.

Starmer has heard "I'll take that under advisement" one too many times. It is now who he is. He can't make a decision on his own.

Does Trump not realize that this supposed deferral is simply Starmer blowing him off without just bluntly saying “what you want me to do is really stupid; nor a chance in hell”?

 

[Brad Sallows]

You keep asserting that only the American and Israelin measures of success should be considered.

Maybe not "only", but what are the Iranian measures of success?

If the only measure the Iranians care about (perhaps because it's the only one they can really be assured of achieving) is regime continuation and the US/Israel don't care about regime continuation (perhaps because that's part of status quo they're prepared to continue accepting as they already do), then regime continuation doesn't really matter. Conversely, if the only thing the US/Israel care about is particular kinds of attrition, it's a bit of a stretch to pretend that Iran can afford not to care about its losses. It's certainly possible that some measures matter more than others, and some maybe not at all. Some have only transient value.

But to go back to the original question. I will ask again. Are you at all capable of thinking from the Iranian perspective or is red teaming beyond your faculties?

You're proposing a game of Calvinball. Not interested.

Ideology yields strengths and weaknesses. If some dumb son-of-a-bitch believes in martyrdom and it makes him a little bit careless and you just want to get rid of him, help him follow his ideology.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Right. Crazy the media is getting that information to release.

Being forthright and proactive are essential PA principles for businesses and armies wanting to avoid more complicated discussions later on.

 

[Kirkhill]

Does Trump not realize that this supposed deferral is simply Starmer blowing him off without just bluntly saying “what you want me to do is really stupid; nor a chance in hell”?

Does Trump care?

That could indeed be the rationale behind Starmer's response. But, unfortunately, it has become his standard response to everybody about everything - oil and gas, NHS doctors strikes, replacing staff, the environment, EU regs....

The man, in the vernacular, is a tosser.

 

[OldSolduer]

The man, in the vernacular, is a tosser.

That could be said of more than one politician

 

[Kirkhill]

That could be said of more than one politician

But only some are in positions where their incompetence is dangerous.

 

[armrdsoul77]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2040235101418582286

 

[OldSolduer]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2040235101418582286

Holy O Fck.

 

[ytz]

If the only measure the Iranians care about (perhaps because it's the only one they can really be assured of achieving) is regime continuation

You're proposing a game of Calvinball. Not interested.

Ideology yields strengths and weaknesses.

Still struggling to think through.

Regime survival is the basic goal.

What are their stretch goals if they achieve those and how would they achieve them?

 

[ytz]

Someone has realized they've thoroughly stepped in it.

Exclusive: US intelligence warns Iran unlikely to ease Hormuz Strait chokehold soon, sources say

Recent U.S. intelligence reports warn that Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz any time soon because its grip on the world’s most vital oil artery provides the only real leverage it has over the United States, according to three sources familiar with the ‌matter.

www.reuters.com

Meanwhile...

Trump claims Starmer is weak as he mocks PM and UK aircraft carriers

Footage shows US president saying UK ‘should be our best’ ally and accusing PM of prevarication over sending ships

www.theguardian.com

This says a lot.

The question I struggle with is what everybody else does when Trump declares victory and bugs out leaving the Ayatollahs holding the Strait hostage.

Do the rest of us go to war with Iran and force the Strait open?

Or we all just accept the consequences now of the regime eventually rebuilding their nuclear and missile programs?

If I put myself in their shoes, I don't see the benefit in stopping. I would tax the strait, and take payment in Yuan and Rubles until all the Gulf States accept my primacy.

 

[childs56]

The question I struggle with is what everybody else does when Trump declares victory and bugs out leaving the Ayatollahs holding the Strait hostage.

Do the rest of us go to war with Iran and force the Strait open?

Or we all just accept the consequences now of the regime eventually rebuilding their nuclear and missile programs?

If I put myself in their shoes, I don't see the benefit in stopping. I would tax the strait, and take payment in Yuan and Rubles until all the Gulf straits accept my primacy.

Western Canada does not need any oil from the middle east. Eastern Canada would not need oil from the Middle east if we built another pipeline East. Add two pipelines and we can ship to Europe also.
But I would not like to see what Irving Oil would do if that ever happened. Nor those who are connected with the ME Canada oil program.

Things are going to be very fragile in that part of the world going forward.

 

[ytz]

Western Canada does not need any oil from the middle east. Eastern Canada would not need oil from the Middle east if we built another pipeline East. Add two pipelines and we can ship to Europe also.
But I would not like to see what Irving Oil would do if that ever happened. Nor those who are connected with the ME Canada oil program.

1) Unless you want to put in a National Energy Program, prices for oil will not be set in Canada. So what happens over there still matters economically over here.

2) Nobody is building pipelines to anywhere in weeks. Let alone filling them.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Western Canada does not need any oil from the middle east. Eastern Canada would not need oil from the Middle east if we built another pipeline East. Add two pipelines and we can ship to Europe also.
But I would not like to see what Irving Oil would do if that ever happened. Nor those who are connected with the ME Canada oil program.

Things are going to be very fragile in that part of the world going forward.

I’m not certain about the part about EC, I’ve just read the Irving will be replacing Saudi oil with Newfie oil for its Saint John refinery. The question should be, why is Irving not using Newfie oil in Saint John all along? It’s complete BS that they are not. Ship oil a few hundred miles or ship it thousands of miles from Saudi?
Anyone have any ideas on this?

 

[suffolkowner]

I’m not certain about the part about EC, I’ve just read the Irving will be replacing Saudi oil with Newfie oil for its Saint John refinery. The question should be, why is Irving not using Newfie oil in Saint John all along? It’s complete BS that they are not. Ship oil a few hundred miles or ship it thousands of miles from Saudi?
Anyone have any ideas on this?

whats cheaper?

 

[Cloud Cover]

Western Canada does not need any oil from the middle east. Eastern Canada would not need oil from the Middle east if we built another pipeline East. Add two pipelines and we can ship to Europe also.
But I would not like to see what Irving Oil would do if that ever happened. Nor those who are connected with the ME Canada oil program.

Things are going to be very fragile in that part of the world going forward.

For the first time since 2020, Irving is finally buying oil from Newfoundland. So is a pipeline needed? I don’t know, but it surely makes no sense to be purchasing ME oil.

LOOKING TO CANADA FOR OIL: Canada’s Irving Turns to Newfoundland for Oil Instead of Persian Gulf as a Result of Iran Disruption - Canadian Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events - EnergyNow

The last time that Irving received a cargo of crude oil produced off the shore of Newfoundland was in July, 2020 By Robert Tuttle Canada’s biggest refinery is turning to Newfoundland for crude for the first time since 2020 as the war on Iran cuts off Middle Eastern supplies. Irving…

energynow.ca

 

[Czech_pivo]

whats cheaper?

Should be the same cost.
Could be different viscosity though.

 

[HavokFour]

The question I struggle with is what everybody else does when Trump declares victory and bugs out leaving the Ayatollahs holding the Strait hostage.

Do the rest of us go to war with Iran and force the Strait open?

Or we all just accept the consequences now of the regime eventually rebuilding their nuclear and missile programs?

If I put myself in their shoes, I don't see the benefit in stopping. I would tax the strait, and take payment in Yuan and Rubles until all the Gulf States accept my primacy.

I'm not actually sure if there's a military solution to this anymore, other than taking control of the entire Iranian coast and we all know how massive of a job that would be. No politician will survive something like that, everyone knows who's at fault. Even if successful all it takes is one drone, mine, or missile getting through and hitting a ship to shut it all down again.

Iran seem keen to just draw this out as long as possible, because it's very clearly speeding along the now inevitable death of American hegemony the longer it goes on. They have time on their side.

The world is going to need one hell of a diplomatic team.