Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Cloud Cover]

Have the rules of war changed since Schwarzkopf bombed Iraq back to the stone age for George H W Bush?

That was in fact a conflict prosecuted under UN Resolution 678 that authorized all necessary use of force, and it ended at the limit line of that Resolution. The 4 corners of the resolution were wide enough to permit near maximum damage to Iraq and its ability to wage war in Kuwait, it’s neighbours and the wider P Gulf. The coalition came nowhere near doing the astonishing damage they could inflict versus the tremendous damage they did inflict.

I’m not aware of any UN Resolution in the current conflict calling for the relentless bombing of Iran such that it cannot make war on its neighbours.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Well done the Rock Apes!

 

[HavokFour]

It might be a bit too early to be treating this 2 week ceasefire as a complete end to the fighting, but the White House is anyway.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041693957571186952

 

[Cloud Cover]

I’m sure Israel is going to have something to say about it, since they are currently under sustained missile attack tonight.

 

[HavokFour]

They really are tolling the strait. Who won exactly? That's close $4B between Iran and Oman over the next 2 weeks (if it's $2M per ship) assuming the strait starts seeing the same traffic again.

US and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire

Iran says it has accepted a two-week ceasefire in the war, and will negotiate with the United States in Islamabad beginning Friday. President Donald Trump said Tuesday he’s pulling back on his threats to widen attacks.

apnews.com

Iran, Oman to charge for Strait of Hormuz passage​

By SAMY MAGDY

The two-week ceasefire plan includes allowing both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, a regional official said Wednesday.

The official said Iran would use the money it raised for reconstruction. It wasn’t immediately clear what Oman would use its money for.

The strait is in the territorial waters of both Oman and Iran. The world had considered the passage an international waterway and never paid tolls before.

The official, who had been directly involved in the negotiations, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

 

[brihard]

They really are tolling the strait. Who won exactly? That's close $4B between Iran and Oman over the next 2 weeks (if it's $2M per ship) assuming the strait starts seeing the same traffic again.

US and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire

Iran says it has accepted a two-week ceasefire in the war, and will negotiate with the United States in Islamabad beginning Friday. President Donald Trump said Tuesday he’s pulling back on his threats to widen attacks.

apnews.com

That’s a big one to watch- and whether they truly open up passage in the Strait or if it’s still restricted? Either way I don’t see how Iran extorting a toll from shipping making innocent passage through an international strait can be seen as a strategic win for the U.S. status quo ante was simply free passage.

I’m more interested in what gets settled regarding enrichment and the material Iran already has.

Also- a tally on all the economic infrastructure hit, and what sort of supply disruptions will persist. We know there have been major hits to LNG and Aluminum manufacturing. How bad?

 

[HavokFour]

That’s a big one to watch- and whether they truly open up passage in the Strait or if it’s still restricted? Either way I don’t see how Iran extorting a toll from shipping making innocent passage through an international strait can be seen as a strategic win for the U.S. status quo ante was simply free passage.

I’m more interested in what gets settled regarding enrichment and the material Iran already has.

Also- a tally on all the economic infrastructure hit, and what sort of supply disruptions will persist. We know there have been major hits to LNG and Aluminum manufacturing. How bad?

I'm just wondering, what if a ship refuses to pay and tries to cross anyway? Is it now OK for Iran to fire on that ship? I'm not seeing much difference from before the ceasefire in that case, and wouldn't call that "open".

Not to mention what kind of precedent it could be setting for other places like the Great Belt, Oresund, Strait of Gibraltar, even the Bosphorus. We might see Russia come out against the tolling of Hormuz in the coming days.

As for how the Gulf states feel about all this, I can't imagine they're taking it very well.