Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Cloud Cover]

Have the rules of war changed since Schwarzkopf bombed Iraq back to the stone age for George H W Bush?

That was in fact a conflict prosecuted under UN Resolution 678 that authorized all necessary use of force, and it ended at the limit line of that Resolution. The 4 corners of the resolution were wide enough to permit near maximum damage to Iraq and its ability to wage war in Kuwait, it’s neighbours and the wider P Gulf. The coalition came nowhere near doing the astonishing damage they could inflict versus the tremendous damage they did inflict.

I’m not aware of any UN Resolution in the current conflict calling for the relentless bombing of Iran such that it cannot make war on its neighbours.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Well done the Rock Apes!

 

[HavokFour]

It might be a bit too early to be treating this 2 week ceasefire as a complete end to the fighting, but the White House is anyway.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041693957571186952

 

[Cloud Cover]

I’m sure Israel is going to have something to say about it, since they are currently under sustained missile attack tonight.

 

[HavokFour]

They really are tolling the strait. Who won exactly? That's close $4B between Iran and Oman over the next 2 weeks (if it's $2M per ship) assuming the strait starts seeing the same traffic again.

US and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire

Iran says it has accepted a two-week ceasefire in the war, and will negotiate with the United States in Islamabad beginning Friday. President Donald Trump said Tuesday he’s pulling back on his threats to widen attacks.

apnews.com

Iran, Oman to charge for Strait of Hormuz passage​

By SAMY MAGDY

The two-week ceasefire plan includes allowing both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, a regional official said Wednesday.

The official said Iran would use the money it raised for reconstruction. It wasn’t immediately clear what Oman would use its money for.

The strait is in the territorial waters of both Oman and Iran. The world had considered the passage an international waterway and never paid tolls before.

The official, who had been directly involved in the negotiations, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

 

[brihard]

They really are tolling the strait. Who won exactly? That's close $4B between Iran and Oman over the next 2 weeks (if it's $2M per ship) assuming the strait starts seeing the same traffic again.

US and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire

Iran says it has accepted a two-week ceasefire in the war, and will negotiate with the United States in Islamabad beginning Friday. President Donald Trump said Tuesday he’s pulling back on his threats to widen attacks.

apnews.com

That’s a big one to watch- and whether they truly open up passage in the Strait or if it’s still restricted? Either way I don’t see how Iran extorting a toll from shipping making innocent passage through an international strait can be seen as a strategic win for the U.S. status quo ante was simply free passage.

I’m more interested in what gets settled regarding enrichment and the material Iran already has.

Also- a tally on all the economic infrastructure hit, and what sort of supply disruptions will persist. We know there have been major hits to LNG and Aluminum manufacturing. How bad?

 

[HavokFour]

That’s a big one to watch- and whether they truly open up passage in the Strait or if it’s still restricted? Either way I don’t see how Iran extorting a toll from shipping making innocent passage through an international strait can be seen as a strategic win for the U.S. status quo ante was simply free passage.

I’m more interested in what gets settled regarding enrichment and the material Iran already has.

Also- a tally on all the economic infrastructure hit, and what sort of supply disruptions will persist. We know there have been major hits to LNG and Aluminum manufacturing. How bad?

I'm just wondering, what if a ship refuses to pay and tries to cross anyway? Is it now OK for Iran to fire on that ship? I'm not seeing much difference from before the ceasefire in that case, and wouldn't call that "open".

Not to mention what kind of precedent it could be setting for other places like the Great Belt, Oresund, Strait of Gibraltar, even the Bosphorus. We might see Russia come out against the tolling of Hormuz in the coming days.

As for how the Gulf states feel about all this, I can't imagine they're taking it very well.

 

[NavyShooter]

I was looking at Marine Traffic last night and didn't see a whole lot of ship movement through the straight....I'm guessing folks don't want to be first.

 

[Furniture]

The Gulf States are not going to accept Iranian control of the Straits. Its not a realistic outcome.

If America walks away with things in that state, the war will continue with new main players.

 

[ytz]

If a deal is eventually reached where Iran gets to toll shipping in the strait, that alone would be jaw dropping, and a complete reversal of a ton of maritime law. And the revenue Iran would stand to gain is considerable.

If Iran is able to extract a significant reduction or elimination of sanctions as part of this, that would also be an incredible gain for them.

I've said before. This could be America's Suez moment. If the regime comes out of this with access to more revenue and control of the Strait, that will be confirmed. Trump and Bibi will have fought a war that empowered the regime in the end.

 

[ytz]

So the NYT released an article before the deadline with details on how Trump decided to start this thing with Iran.

You'll never guess who's pulled the short straw. Hint: His department is currently running with an unofficial rename.

The blame game begins.

How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran

In a series of Situation Room meetings, President Trump weighed his instincts against the deep concerns of his vice president and a pessimistic intelligence assessment. Here’s the inside story of how he made the fateful decision.

www.nytimes.com

Archive

As usual trying to protect Vance from blame....

 

[GR66]

I was looking at Marine Traffic last night and didn't see a whole lot of ship movement through the straight....I'm guessing folks don't want to be first.

I imagine we'll see ships taking advantage of the ceasefire to get out of the Gulf. What I'd really be watching for is indications that ships are also moving INTO the Gulf.

If shipping companies don't have confidence that the ceasefire will hold then the supply issue will get a brief bump from the ships currently in the Gulf being able to leave with their cargos but if no/few new ships are willing to enter the Gulf to get new loads then the supply issues will continue.

 

[ytz]

I imagine we'll see ships taking advantage of the ceasefire to get out of the Gulf. What I'd really be watching for is indications that ships are also moving INTO the Gulf.

Nailed it. I have heard of desperate conditions on some of the ships where crews are running out of food, fresh water, etc. They'll want to get out. Going back risks getting stuck again. That is a whole different risk calculus.

As today, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Iran have all been hit. Quite the interesting ceasefire where they are all still fighting.

 

[brihard]

As today, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Iran have all been hit. Quite the interesting ceasefire where they are all still fighting.

IRGC C2 is badly degraded and they delegated decentralized launch authority… I’m not surprised it would take some time to wind things down.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041826958988738629

(Click Twitter link for translate option) Oman doesn’t seem inclined to play ball on the tolled passage BS.

The tolls to Iran to sail should be absolute non-starters. There’s no legal basis for that whatsoever. If that’s allowed to stand it’s quite simply a surrender by the U.S. on a key freedom of navigation issue.

Ironically, this puts Canada in an awkward spot. The reason that Iran cannot legally restrict innocent passage in the Strait of Hormuz is the exact same reason that our claim to the Northwest Passage as ‘internal waters’ and to be able to restrict innocent passage through it is BS. Asserting freedom of navigation there weakens our already weak claim here.

 

[HavokFour]

Ok, well this answers my "what if they don't pay?" question.

This is supposed to be what open looks like?

Iran threatens to ‘destroy’ ships that pass through Strait of Hormuz — despite cease-fire pact

Iran’s battered navy has reportedly warned foreign ships on Wednesday that they will be “destroyed” if they attempt to cross the Strait of Hormuz without permission from Tehran.

nypost.com

EDIT: Trump is also trotting out his favorite word again.

Trump announces 50% tariffs on nations supplying Iran with weapons

U.S. President Donald Trump ‌on Wednesday said any country supplying Iran ⁠with military weapons will face immediate 50% tariffs with no exemptions, announcing ‌the ⁠duty in a social media post one ⁠day after agreeing to a two-week ⁠ceasefire with Tehran.

www.reuters.com

 

[KevinB]

Well I didn't have disclosing SAP's on my bingo card for yesterday

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