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Iran Super Thread- Merged

And how they react when a Chinese flagged tanker says “We are a Chinese registered vessel exercising our right of transit passage under international law. We wish you a good day.” Is the U.S. going to commit act ms of war against China to enforce this?

He hasn’t thought this through. He’ll come out of this still looking impotent.
It seems the threatened blockade only applies to ships that pay protection money to Iran. How the US is going to determine that, I don't know? My guess is anyone using the northern traffic lanes will be boarded and everyone else will be directed to the southern traffic lanes.
 
It seems the threatened blockade only applies to ships that pay protection money to Iran. How the US is going to determine that, I don't know? My guess is anyone using the northern traffic lanes will be boarded and everyone else will be directed to the southern traffic lanes.
Where in his words does he specify that? I just dissected it and didn’t see that criteria, although later I do speculate it’ll shrink to that. But he hasn’t said it so far.
 
From the article that Czech posted:

Trump also said the U.S. Navy will “seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran.”
 
From the article that Czech posted:

Trump also said the U.S. Navy will “seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran.”
Yes. “Also”. That’s in addition to "Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz."

I.e., nothing moves in the strait, AND any that already paid a toll and got through will be interdicted.
 
J.D. Vance has announced negotiations have failed. The U.S. delegation is leaving.


Only the unqualified members of the Trump regime (and I include the two top executives) would think negotiations to be a failure after spending on it the amount of time that usually only serves, in international diplomacy, to settle the shape of the table to be used for the actual negotiations.

I've recently started to tell people that I do think there is such a thing as Trump Derangement Syndrome: The man is clearly deranged. This said, his recent musings on Truth Social in the last week or so take the cake, and someone has to tell him, in the infamous words of Joe Biden: "Will you just shut up, man!"
 
Just listened to Trump talk about this, seems explicitly clear to me the objective is free travel in/out of the straight for all. No supporting Iran via tolls, no “favorites only”.
 
Only the unqualified members of the Trump regime (and I include the two top executives) would think negotiations to be a failure after spending on it the amount of time that usually only serves, in international diplomacy, to settle the shape of the table to be used for the actual negotiations.

I've recently started to tell people that I do think there is such a thing as Trump Derangement Syndrome: The man is clearly deranged. This said, his recent musings on Truth Social in the last week or so take the cake, and someone has to tell him, in the infamous words of Joe Biden: "Will you just shut up, man!"
This administration works differently in case that has escaped you up to this point - deviating from norms, which stresses a lot of people. I highly doubt they’d waste time on the formalities of table shape or other useless niceties over this.
 
Only the unqualified members of the Trump regime (and I include the two top executives) would think negotiations to be a failure after spending on it the amount of time that usually only serves, in international diplomacy, to settle the shape of the table to be used for the actual negotiations.

I've recently started to tell people that I do think there is such a thing as Trump Derangement Syndrome: The man is clearly deranged. This said, his recent musings on Truth Social in the last week or so take the cake, and someone has to tell him, in the infamous words of Joe Biden: "Will you just shut up, man!"
Listening to him last night, I had to think that he is using their own playbook against them, saying "We won", "We are blockading the Straits" and then next week saying something different is going to keep them off balance. Now the question is: "Is this an act or is he actually thinking this way?"
 
Listening to him last night, I had to think that he is using their own playbook against them, saying "We won", "We are blockading the Straits" and then next week saying something different is going to keep them off balance. Now the question is: "Is this an act or is he actually thinking this way?"
He’s ’muddying the waters’, but only because he has diarrhea and nobody will make him get out of the pool.
 
they will have handed the Chinese a Causus Belli to invade Taiwan.
A US blockade over on the western side of the Indian Ocean doesn't actually give China a "CB" to invade an uninvolved country in the western Pacific, well clear of the eastern side of the Indian Ocean. It might provoke the Chinese into an illegal undertaking of their own, but no kind of excuse or justification.
 
A US blockade over on the western side of the Indian Ocean doesn't actually give China a "CB" to invade an uninvolved country in the western Pacific, well clear of the eastern side of the Indian Ocean. It might provoke the Chinese into an illegal undertaking of their own, but no kind of excuse or justification.
By imposing a blockade of an international strait through which China receives essential fuel are they not in effect imposing a blockade on China?
 
What's wrong with American warships arbitrarily boarding merchant vessels in international waters?

Next all y'all will have a problem with Trump redirecting those captured freedom ships to American ports where the US will give them fair market value ( 😉 ) for the goods.
 
America has no authority to blockade an international strait that’s an economic lifeline for numerous countries
This is the bones of the issue, and it applies equally to Iran. A toll under threat still amounts to a blockade (conduct the thought experiment of what happens if the toll isn't paid).

Presumably anyone willing to act against the US would act with the goal of restoring free passage of international waters. (What other goal could there be?) Presumably anyone willing to do that would apply the same solution against the Iranian blockade, assuming they weren't just indulging in political posturing. What could be done to achieve the goal?

If the US is acting with the stated aim of restoring free passage of international waters - then what? Does it get a little bit of credit for finally stating a war aim? For cleaning up the chief mess people are complaining that the US created, if it succeeds? Is the war aim legitimate?

What are the acceptable means for compelling Iran to allow free passage of international waters?
 
By imposing a blockade of an international strait through which China receives essential fuel are they not in effect imposing a blockade on China?
They are in effect saying they will do that, yes. Super great idea. Well thought out, no likelihood of disadvantageous second or third order effects.
 
Yes. “Also”. That’s in addition to "Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz."

I.e., nothing moves in the strait, AND any that already paid a toll and got through will be interdicted.
Well as you know when parsing the literary vomit that flows from that man’s social media or mouth, there’s infinity distance in accuracy and truth on one side and reality or even intent on the other. Nobody really knows what he meant but I’m guessing any number of countries will be sailing vessels right past the USN in either direction.
Somehow, by feverishly starting a war and losing it within a few days, he’s put America on the path of Britain in the 1960’s. A declining super power, unable to change the course of a hostile strongman country that is intent on booting them out of a region, and as a result rapidly losing influence and credibility at the pace of double time.
I can only imagine the embarrassment in the United States Military.
 
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