Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Halifax Tar]

So this is what a trillion dollars in military spending gets you.

Outsmarted by some dude in Iran with a map and basic understanding of UNCLOS.

Im all for turning the USN loose and have them sink and kill anything that doesn't make eye contact.

The US doesn't fail because of its military might, it fails because of the political inability to let it do what it does to its maximum potential.

 

[ytz]

I'm curious now about the Financial Times reporting that ships are getting through. Reminder the Twitter/X post was citing FT. Hardly a fly by night source.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Does the US have minesweepers in the Gulf now? Has anyone read that they have?

Trump orders Navy to 'shoot and kill any boat' laying mines in Hormuz Strait

President Donald Trump said he has ordered the U.S. Navy "to shoot and kill any boat" that is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

www.cnbc.com

Trump orders Navy to ‘shoot and kill any boat’ laying mines in Hormuz Strait​

The president added that he is ordering U.S. minesweepers to continue clearing the strait “at a tripled up level!

 

[Navy_Pete]

I'm curious now about the Financial Times reporting that ships are getting through. Reminder the Twitter/X post was citing FT. Hardly a fly by night source.

You can see it on the marine traffic sites; they may turn off their AIS for some of the transits, but if a ship goes from one side to the other with a dropped track for part of it, pretty clear indication. Usually you have to pay to see the actual tracks though.

There is an insane amount of ships at anchor on both sides of the Strait.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Does the US have minesweepers in the Gulf now? Has anyone read that they have?

Trump orders Navy to 'shoot and kill any boat' laying mines in Hormuz Strait

President Donald Trump said he has ordered the U.S. Navy "to shoot and kill any boat" that is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

www.cnbc.com

Trump orders Navy to ‘shoot and kill any boat’ laying mines in Hormuz Strait​

The president added that he is ordering U.S. minesweepers to continue clearing the strait “at a tripled up level!

So Iran is supposed to be laying mines in the Strait, that the USN has total control over? This is very Gulf war era Sadam defence minister kind of doublespeak.

 

[Czech_pivo]

You can see it on the marine traffic sites; they may turn off their AIS for some of the transits, but if a ship goes from one side to the other with a dropped track for part of it, pretty clear indication. Usually you have to pay to see the actual tracks though.

There is an insane amount of ships at anchor on both sides of the Strait.

Read an interesting article about the 'chip' industry and its need for Helium in order to manufacture them. South Korea dominates the market and relies on over 60% of its helium coming out of the Gulf. If SK can't continue to get its Helium supplies they will be forced to start closing their chip manufacturing and the resulting chip shortage will be much worse than the COVID supply crunch.

 

[ytz]

Read an interesting article about the 'chip' industry and its need for Helium in order to manufacture them. South Korea dominates the market and relies on over 60% of its helium coming out of the Gulf. If SK can't continue to get its Helium supplies they will be forced to start closing their chip manufacturing and the resulting chip shortage will be much worse than the COVID supply crunch.

I fully expect a semiconductor shortage and subsequent recession later this year as the AI boom comes to a screeching halt because of this.

Personally just hoping it's after Apple's BTS sale cause I need a new laptop this summer....

 

[brihard]

Read an interesting article about the 'chip' industry and its need for Helium in order to manufacture them. South Korea dominates the market and relies on over 60% of its helium coming out of the Gulf. If SK can't continue to get its Helium supplies they will be forced to start closing their chip manufacturing and the resulting chip shortage will be much worse than the COVID supply crunch.

I’d forgotten about helium. Yeah, that one’s gonna potentially be a problem. It’s also important in medical imaging.

Helium’s not just stuck for transit; major production was taken out when Qatar was hit.

 

[ytz]

Helium’s not just stuck for transit; major production was taken out when Qatar was hit.

I wonder how much of this is gone:

How the distribution plays out:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/helium-shortage-has-started-impacting-tech-supply-chains-execs-say-2026-03-26/

 

[brihard]

I wonder how much of this is gone:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/helium-shortage-has-started-impacting-tech-supply-chains-execs-say-2026-03-26/

squeaky voice Balloon huffing? In this economy?

I looked into it a bit; helium production is often a byproduct of natural gas. Canada is a producer (mostly Saskatchewan) though it’s not a very matured industry. But it doesn’t look like we’re up a creek there.

 

[ytz]

I looked into it a bit; helium production is often a byproduct of natural gas. Canada is a producer (mostly Saskatchewan) though it’s not a very matured industry. But it doesn’t look like we’re up a creek there.

If usage has to be triaged, I think manufacturing, especially the tech sector is screwed.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I wonder how much of this is gone:

How the distribution plays out:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/helium-shortage-has-started-impacting-tech-supply-chains-execs-say-2026-03-26/

Wonder if this is something, Helium production, that Canada could move into?

 

[brihard]

Wonder if this is something, Helium production, that Canada could move into?

Good CBC article on it from a week ago. Looks like we’re in the space, but not at sufficient scale to make our own liquefaction economical, so we have a supply chain gap in that step.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/bakx-helium-prairies-qatar-global-9.7164757

 

[HavokFour]

Oil, gases, fertilizer, and medicines are now all way up in price.

Iran war pushing up till price of some drugs by up to 30%, pharmacies warn

Chemists in England cost of painkillers like paracetamol and hay fever treatments say has jumped since February

www.theguardian.com

 

[brihard]

Oil, gases, fertilizer, and medicines are now all way up in price.

Iran war pushing up till price of some drugs by up to 30%, pharmacies warn

Chemists in England cost of painkillers like paracetamol and hay fever treatments say has jumped since February

www.theguardian.com

Several of the -enes (benzene, toluene etc) are critical feedstocks for prescription medications. The production of meds uses lots of hydrocarbon derivatives as solvents and reagents. Because so much of that is made in India, it’s reliant on a middle eastern petroleum distillate supply chain.

Now, this isn’t likely a major factor in the cost of newer or more complex medications that are still paying off years of expensive research and trials. But, for long established generic medications that have been mass produced for decades, there is a potential for a supply shock not just of cost but of availability. So, not great.