Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Brad Sallows]

China is absolutely loving every second of this

This sentiment keeps cropping up. What is the foundation for it?

China might be loving this if it were ready to move right now.

If China can't move right now and a result of all this is that the US approximately permanently increases :

• stockpiles (and customary stockpile targets)
• manufacturing capacity
• the know-how (knowledge and experience) to rapidly expand manufacturing capacity

then China is further behind where it was.

That is all separate from the opportunity to learn about dealing with unmanned/remote warfare in a small conflict without having to jump into a big one, much like COVID was a benevolently meager pandemic that allowed everyone to learn a bunch of stuff before something with a really scary CFR strikes.

The best time for aggressors to launch their wars was pre-Ukraine, before various countries were prodded to re-examine their materiel and ammunition and force structure and whatnot. That opportunity is gone, and is being further reduced with each additional equipment/ammo/force/etc announcement.

 

[Czech_pivo]

This sentiment keeps cropping up. What is the foundation for it?

China might be loving this if it were ready to move right now.

If China can't move right now and a result of all this is that the US approximately permanently increases :

• stockpiles (and customary stockpile targets)
• manufacturing capacity
• the know-how (knowledge and experience) to rapidly expand manufacturing capacity

then China is further behind where it was.

That is all separate from the opportunity to learn about dealing with unmanned/remote warfare in a small conflict without having to jump into a big one, much like COVID was a benevolently meager pandemic that allowed everyone to learn a bunch of stuff before something with a really scary CFR strikes.

The best time for aggressors to launch their wars was pre-Ukraine, before various countries were prodded to re-examine their materiel and ammunition and force structure and whatnot. That opportunity is gone, and is being further reduced with each additional equipment/ammo/force/etc announcement.

Here's one:

1) Intelligence gathering - learning how the US executes its plans and conducts itself. Iran is most certainly, where its able, providing both Russia and China as much information/data that it can.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Here's one:

1) Intelligence gathering - learning how the US executes its plans and conducts itself. Iran is most certainly, where its able, providing both Russia and China as much information/data that it can.

Maybe. I've concluded that countries actually involved in fighting learn more than countries observing from sidelines, even with the advice of active participants. How much institutional inertia and bias have Ukraine's experiences overcome among various observers? China isn't immune to the problem.

The only way for the US to avoid providing the intelligence-gathering opportunity is to not fight, which seems ludicrously self-defeating. The US does big military things pretty frequently compared to everyone else, so I give it a substantial advantage in fighting at scale. If China hasn't learned more from past wars by observing than the US has from operating, I doubt this one is going to be the one that tips the scale.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Maybe. I've concluded that countries actually involved in fighting learn more than countries observing from sidelines, even with the advice of active participants. How much institutional inertia and bias have Ukraine's experiences overcome among various observers? China isn't immune to the problem.

The only way for the US to avoid providing the intelligence-gathering opportunity is to not fight, which seems ludicrously self-defeating. The US does big military things pretty frequently compared to everyone else, so I give it a substantial advantage in fighting at scale. If China hasn't learned more from past wars by observing than the US has from operating, I doubt this one is going to be the one that tips the scale.

This current action is the closest since the Falklands War that resembles what China would need to achieve to successfully invade Taiwan. So, I'd argue that there's lot for them to learn.

The potential issues that the US may be having with food resupply/quality on some of its vessels would definitely correlate to the US responding to a Chinese real or potential threat to Taiwan is just 1 example.

 

[Brad Sallows]

This current action is the closest since the Falklands War that resembles what China would need to achieve to successfully invade Taiwan. So, I'd argue that there's lot for them to learn.

That part I see differently. To me, the only thing remotely close to what China would need to achieve is the Normandy invasion. They aren't going to be able to establish a lodgement in some undefended area and muster there for a push on defended areas (Falklands). They aren't going to start with a massive overmatch in everything except land forces (Gulf).

China isn't even really at the start point for achieving Normandy, where the Allies already had settled the question of sufficient air/naval dominance to go ahead with an assault crossing.

Very quick staff check: What can China land in a first wave? Maybe a reinforced division? Then a full day of turnaround - at least, just for transit time - for each successive force of similar size? A division every how many days? And they're not going to be able to slow down Taiwan's concentration of forces by attempting to decoy anyone with a fictitious army group poised to invade somewhere else.

As of right now, all this worry about what China might do in the next few months is just a waste of anxiety.

 

[Czech_pivo]

That part I see differently. To me, the only thing remotely close to what China would need to achieve is the Normandy invasion. They aren't going to be able to establish a lodgement in some undefended area and muster there for a push on defended areas (Falklands). They aren't going to start with a massive overmatch in everything except land forces (Gulf).

China isn't even really at the start point for achieving Normandy, where the Allies already had settled the question of sufficient air/naval dominance to go ahead with an assault crossing.

Very quick staff check: What can China land in a first wave? Maybe a reinforced division? Then a full day of turnaround - at least, just for transit time - for each successive force of similar size? A division every how many days? And they're not going to be able to slow down Taiwan's concentration of forces by attempting to decoy anyone with a fictitious army group poised to invade somewhere else.

As of right now, all this worry about what China might do in the next few months is just a waste of anxiety.

I hope that the situation with Taiwan never occurs where either of us can say, 'I told you so.'

 

[Brad Sallows]

I hope that the situation with Taiwan never occurs where either of us can say, 'I told you so.'

Of course, but in the context of this thread, people who keep peddling "but this war something something China and Taiwan" ought to stop peddling their "safety concerns" as something that deserves attention.

 

[Czech_pivo]

In other news, Brent oil is back above 105$USD/barrel on the news that Iran's chief negotiator has resigned.

 

[HavokFour]

Reportedly, more mines have been dropped into the Strait.

Iran reportedly drops more mines in Strait of Hormuz — as US moves more minesweepers into the region

The US is ramping up its minesweeping operations in the Strait of Hormuz, where underwater Iranian explosives have kept the oil chokepoint shut for weeks, President Trump said Thursday.

nypost.com

And yesterday. Add 6 months to the timeline for after whenever this ends before traffic returns to anywhere near what it was before.

Clearing Strait of Hormuz of mines could take 6 months, Pentagon tells Congress​

Archive

 

[Brad Sallows]

And yesterday. Add 6 months to the timeline for after whenever this ends before traffic returns to anywhere near what it was before.

Sure, if the claim is accurate and the goal is - as some articles phrase it - "completely clear".

How long to clear satisfactory shipping lane(s) which allow traffic to hit pre-war levels?

 

[brihard]

Reportedly, more mines have been dropped into the Strait.

Iran reportedly drops more mines in Strait of Hormuz — as US moves more minesweepers into the region

The US is ramping up its minesweeping operations in the Strait of Hormuz, where underwater Iranian explosives have kept the oil chokepoint shut for weeks, President Trump said Thursday.

nypost.com

And yesterday. Add 6 months to the timeline for after whenever this ends before traffic returns to anywhere near what it was before.

Clearing Strait of Hormuz of mines could take 6 months, Pentagon tells Congress​

Archive

I struggle to understand how Iran’s being permitted to do this, given the U.S. is saying they’re aware and know where the mines are. I’m increasingly skeptical of how much the U.S. is able to control and curtail the movement of small vessels in the strait.

 

[Furniture]

I struggle to understand how Iran’s being permitted to do this, given the U.S. is saying they’re aware and know where the mines are. I’m increasingly skeptical of how much the U.S. is able to control and curtail the movement of small vessels in the strait.

Or, like in all other wars, dominance doesn't mean the enemy can't do anything, it just means they have to be very careful of what they do...

It would be impossible to stop all small craft from exiting Iranian harbours and doing things sporadically in small groups. The Germans could send boats into the Channel until all of the Channel ports were captured, despite the Allies "controlling" it.

The Iraq and Afghanistan wars have given people a very distorted view of what war is actually like.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Or, like in all other wars, dominance doesn't mean the enemy can't do anything, it just means they have to be very careful of what they do...

It would be impossible to stop all small craft from exiting Iranian harbours and doing things sporadically in small groups. The Germans could send boats into the Channel until all of the Channel ports wer captured, despite the Allies "controlling" it.

The Iraq and Afghanistan wars have given people a very distorted view of what war is actually like.

Question - is the Iranian fishing fleet still going out each day? Easy to mix in with them.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The Iraq and Afghanistan wars have given people a very distorted view of what war is actually like.

Possibly the understatement of the year. The media pants-wetting at every little setback someone manages to inflict on the US is staggering.

 

[Furniture]

Possibly the understatement of the year. The media pants-wetting at every little setback someone manages to inflict on the US is staggering.

In an age where getting the first viral clip outweighs being the most reliable, this is bound to happen.

Most media outlets would rather be the first-mover with the most shared clip, rather than have the most balanced and accurate story.

 

[brihard]

Or, like in all other wars, dominance doesn't mean the enemy can't do anything, it just means they have to be very careful of what they do...

It would be impossible to stop all small craft from exiting Iranian harbours and doing things sporadically in small groups. The Germans could send boats into the Channel until all of the Channel ports were captured, despite the Allies "controlling" it.

The Iraq and Afghanistan wars have given people a very distorted view of what war is actually like.

No, I understand and accept that- but with the massive amount of US resources in the area, I’d have figured surveilling that relatively modest stretch of water and interdicting anyone doing anything hostile in it would be more viable. That’s certainly the image of utter dominance the U.S. has been working hard to portray.

If in fact that’s not the case, then it only highlights how vulnerable the strait is and how long this may drag on…

If anything, I’ll say as a GWOT vet I find it very easy to believe in the potential for a smaller adversary to cause disproportionate strategic harm using asymmetric tactics. I’ve maybe just been giving too much credence to U.S. claims about how easy this should be.

 

[Furniture]

No, I understand and accept that- but with the massive amount of US resources in the area, I’d have figured surviving that relatively modest stretch of water and interdicting anyone doing anything hostile in it would be more viable. That’s certainly the image of utter dominance the U.S. has been working hard to portray.

There is no force on earth that can maintain absolute control, even if only sporadically contested, along a 1800km coast.

Of course the US is trying to portray absolute control, while at the same time Iran is trying to portray the illusion that they can move freely.

If in fact that’s not the case, then it only highlights how vulnerable the strait is and how long this may drag on…

It might be highlighting it to people who have never been there, but anyone who has sailed in the area, or any other strait on the planet, knows that none of them can be absolutely controlled. There are too many places a small craft with mines, guns, or rockets can be hidden in. The safety of international waters was entirely an illusion predicated on everybody playing by the same rules. When one or more actors decide the rules don't matter, sea lanes are contested.

If anything, I’ll say as a GWOT vet I find it very easy to believe in the potential for a smaller adversary to cause disproportionate strategic harm using asymmetric tactics. I’ve maybe just been giving too much credence to U.S. claims about how easy this should be.

That's fair.

Or, perhaps your distain for the current administration makes it easier to latch onto any negative story as having more weight than it actually has. We shall find-out over the course of time.

Edit: To be clear, this isn't an attack, just an observation in general. People take all the "bad" news about the people they dislike as truth, and any of the "good" news about them with distrust. It's human nature, and we all do it, even if we don't want to admit it.

 

[brihard]

There is no force on earth that can maintain absolute control, even if only sporadically contested, along a 1800km coast.

Of course the US is trying to portray absolute control, while at the same time Iran is trying to portray the illusion that they can move freely.

Mm hm- I was speaking only though of the much narrower confines of the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. With that said, ack that it’s still a very large area. I’m woefully underequipped in terms of real knowledge in the maritime domain. I’ve probably made incorrect assumptions about the ease of monitoring and characterizing smaller vessels in specific areas.

It might be highlighting it to people who have never been there, but anyone who has sailed in the area, or any other strait on the planet, knows that none of them can be absolutely controlled. There are too many places a small craft with mines, guns, or rockets can be hidden in. The safety of international waters was entirely an illusion predicated on everybody playing by the same rules. When one or more actors decide the rules don't matter, sea lanes are contested.

Totally fair. I’ve never been to sea beyond the ferry to Vancouver Island, so again I come from a position of ignorance.

That's fair.

Or, perhaps your distain for the current administration makes it easier to latch onto any negative story as having more weight than it actually has. We shall find-out over the course of time.

I won’t insult anyone’s intelligence by denying my disdain for the current administration. They’ve earned it. I guess rather than crapping on them for potentially a tactical failure here that would probably vex anyone equally in the same position, I’ll suck back and just go back to shaking my head about why they chose this particular larger fight in the first place. If functionally closing the strait to merchant shipping was this predictable and relatively easy for Iran, and with the macroeconomic consequences we all know are coming, I wish they would show more candor in articulating why they thought this was all worth it. I definitely hold in contempt those senior officials who promoted this then were surprised by Iran’s actions in the strait.

Anyway, thanks for helping me better appreciate what I don’t know.