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Iran Super Thread- Merged

Iran 100% needs a regime change and leaving them how they currently are is like leaving a loaded pistol in a toddlers hands.

The US kicked a hornet nest and now everyone's getting stung. Everyone needs to come together and deal with the hornet nest.

The problem is the US is (currently) even less trust worthy than said hornet nest and countries have a legitimate reason to believe the US will leave them holding the bag and dealing with said hornets on their own.
 
Iran 100% needs a regime change and leaving them how they currently are is like leaving a loaded pistol in a toddlers hands.

The US kicked a hornet nest and now everyone's getting stung. Everyone needs to come together and deal with the hornet nest.

The problem is the US is (currently) even less trust worthy than said hornet nest and countries have a legitimate reason to believe the US will leave them holding the bag and dealing with said hornets on their own.

And the US has done such a bad job that, astonishingly, everyone is starting to feel sorry for the hornets ;)
 
Want a voice, pull up to the table with something other than convening.

What if people don't like your table anymore ?

The administration routinely devalues others contributions and routinely says they don't need the help. What guarantee is there, anybody else would get any say? Heck, his own cabinet doesn't get any say.

There's no point in anybody else participating. That's not hating on the US or whatever else others are dreaming. That's simply accepting reality. It's all downside. If another country participates, their own population will be mad. They won't get any say. And if anything goes badly, they'll get blamed. The upside is maybe they get rid of the regime? And then what? Another potential refugee crisis in Europe?

@KevinB I genuinely respect your reasoned and moderate view here. I don't even necessarily disagree with. But I urge you to put yourself in the shoes of the average European and think through how American foreign policy has worked out for them over the last 20 years. Especially in the Middle East.
 
The problem with the "dual use" formulation is that a bridge can transport a truck and a tank. If you take out a bridge because a tank will cross it the tank will cross at another bridge. Therefore all bridges are dual use and legitimate targets.

Likewise with power stations powering homes, hospitals and command centres.

Dual use justifies us spending military dollars on civilian infrastructue. It also justifies our enemies employing military force against civilian infrastructure funded by military dollars.

I see that as a problem for Iran.
 
It really is amusing reading about how well Iran has done in this ass whooping, the US is on the ropes, and if only Trump had talked nice to everyone shirking their NATO commitments for decades would the raw power of the EU and others be brought to bear to rescue the US and Israelis from the grasp of mighty Iran.
 
It really is amusing reading about how well Iran has done in this ass whooping, the US is on the ropes, and if only Trump had talked nice to everyone shirking their NATO commitments for decades would the raw power of the EU and others be brought to bear to rescue the US and Israelis from the grasp of mighty Iran.
If the current situation is the exact same 1 month from now - will your opinion have altered at all? What about 2 months from now? Will your belief in final victory still be in place?
 
It really is amusing reading about how well Iran has done in this ass whooping, the US is on the ropes, and if only Trump had talked nice to everyone shirking their NATO commitments for decades would the raw power of the EU and others be brought to bear to rescue the US and Israelis from the grasp of mighty Iran.
Can you articulate why you see this "excursion" as a) necessary, and b) successful?
 
Why would anyone want to detract from the bukkake theatre of constant negative critique of all things USA? It's Canada's national sport after all.
 
Deflection

Sure. I don't have access to all the information the US had before embarking on this. I'm also inclined to give a lot of latitude in time for something like this - given all the prior expeditions of similar nature.

The US has always been our most trusted and important ally. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt. I don't take offence very easily to Trump's rhetoric so I don't let it infect my thinking.
 
The West has had a good 4 years to start realizing how drones will affect warfare and decades and decades of how Iran would use small vessels, mines and Anti-ship missiles to help control the waterways near it and we made sure to reduce the capabilities to deal with that. The Gulf States were even worse in building mostly Potemkin village militaries. If we allow the Iranian Regime to continue to be able to dictate how traffic flows through the straits, they will use that again and again and spend what money they get on rebuilding their long range strike capabilities and their proxies. Which means another generation of conflict.

Destroying and degrading their ability to inflict damage on transiting ships and supporting internal groups to effect regime change, is the only way to resolve this.
 
Sure. I don't have access to all the information the US had before embarking on this. I'm also inclined to give a lot of latitude in time for something like this - given all the prior expeditions of similar nature.

The US has always been our most trusted and important ally. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt. I don't take offence very easily to Trump's rhetoric so I don't let it infect my thinking.
Can you articulate why you see this "excursion" as a) necessary, and b) successful?
 
Sure. I don't have access to all the information the US had before embarking on this. I'm also inclined to give a lot of latitude in time for something like this - given all the prior expeditions of similar nature.

The US has always been our most trusted and important ally. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt. I don't take offence very easily to Trump's rhetoric so I don't let it infect my thinking.
To a large extent I agree that the US has been our most trusted and important ally since 1945. but that doesn't mean that we blindly, obediently follow along into every adventure that they choose on their own to enter into. That's not 'independence' but as a vassal would act. You can make the argument all you want if you think we are vassal today, yesterday or even into the future tomorrow.

We made a choice not to follow them into Vietnam or Panama or Dominica Republic or Grenada or Iraq or Cuba over the years because they didn't align with Canada's policies at the time.

IF Trump put forward a rational plan with a rational timeline, based on verifiable facts - not speculation - I think that Carney and the usual suspects within NATO and maybe a few others, would get on board. One of those conditions would be in the 'blessing' of the UN. But until Trump is able to do the above - and most importantly - allow the professionals and only the professionals to execute the agreed upon plan, couple with him remaining off of 'X' completely during the entire plan timeline, NO one will get on board. Those items would be the floor to getting others involved.
 
The administration routinely devalues others contributions and routinely says they don't need the help. What guarantee is there, anybody else would get any say? Heck, his own cabinet doesn't get any say.
Which is why I would suggest a non US Coalition. A viable third party, that could force/enforce a solution. If you can’t work with him, work around him, or force him to accept a joint goal.

There's no point in anybody else participating. That's not hating on the US or whatever else others are dreaming. That's simply accepting reality. It's all downside. If another country participates, their own population will be mad. They won't get any say. And if anything goes badly, they'll get blamed. The upside is maybe they get rid of the regime? And then what? Another potential refugee crisis in Europe?
There will be another refugee crisis if things continue as they are. Trump got Militarily involved, and his ego isn’t likely to accept anything Iran’s Leader(s) will.

@KevinB I genuinely respect your reasoned and moderate view here. I don't even necessarily disagree with. But I urge you to put yourself in the shoes of the average European and think through how American foreign policy has worked out for them over the last 20 years. Especially in the Middle East.
Since the end of WW2 the West has collectively allowed America to dictate policy.
In the Lead, Follow, or Get out of the way principle. America shouldered the lions share of defense expenditures and deployed large Armies into Europe and South Korea in turn for being accepted to call the shots.
For Vietnam, only the Aussies joined.
Panama and Grenada were purely American for both geographical and political reasons.

GW1 saw a true Coalition created - with a clear goal of pushing Iraq out of Kuwait.
Since then, I’d argue that there has not been a great effort in coalition building.

The Former Yugoslavian mess was a prime example of the UN wanting to do something but failing heavily and it wasn’t until NATO started using force that the area generally stabilized — the UN is a prime example in that situation of what dithering and convening does.

Now come 911, America was attacked and allies came to help in Afghanistan. I am disgusted by POTUS refusal to admit that coalition members fought and died for that, and it is a blight on the American character that his narrative is accepted. That said, anyone who was in Afghanistan also saw what National Caveats and political pressures resulted in, as some countries generally sat and watched.

Iraq, and Operation Enduring Freedom well I think we have all seen what failure to understand a countries geopolitical and religious makeup can do.

Syria and Libya can also show what occurs when folks are myopic and don’t look to larger issues.


If Europe and Canada want to be credible voice(s) then skin needs to be in the game. It would appear that historically Western Europe and Canada have been fine with either following or getting out of the way.
If you follow, as a minor contributor, you don’t really get a lot of say, and if you adopt “Get out of the way”, well then you have no voice to complain about anything.


The majority of Americans aren’t actively hostile to Canada and Western Europe, but there is aggravation when one sees what you all spend on Defense versus Social programs and then have the audacity to complain about how we chose to police the world.

The majority of the democracies of the world abdicated that role, and nature abhors a vacuum. I definitely don’t agree with how this “war” began, and the methods used. But that doesn’t mean I want the efforts to fail, as I see that being a major issue that will lead to more conflicts and increased inflation.
 
To a large extent I agree that the US has been our most trusted and important ally since 1945. but that doesn't mean that we blindly, obediently follow along into every adventure that they choose on their own to enter into. That's not 'independence' but as a vassal would act. You can make the argument all you want if you think we are vassal today, yesterday or even into the future tomorrow.

We made a choice not to follow them into Vietnam or Panama or Dominica Republic or Grenada or Iraq or Cuba over the years because they didn't align with Canada's policies at the time.

IF Trump put forward a rational plan with a rational timeline, based on verifiable facts - not speculation - I think that Carney and the usual suspects within NATO and maybe a few others, would get on board. One of those conditions would be in the 'blessing' of the UN. But until Trump is able to do the above - and most importantly - allow the professionals and only the professionals to execute the agreed upon plan, couple with him remaining off of 'X' completely during the entire plan timeline, NO one will get on board. Those items would be the floor to getting others involved.
One slight correction, Canada did have SOF in Iraq, though often not publicly admitted, and PM Harper at the time of one public admission after a rescue mission, cleverly announced that all JTF-2 personnel had left Baghdad, leaving it to the belief that meant out of Iraq.
 
The administration routinely devalues others contributions and routinely says they don't need the help. What guarantee is there, anybody else would get any say? Heck, his own cabinet doesn't get any say.

Those are great points. Trump is so toxic people are ignoring psycho "Death to the West" Iran.
 
Since the end of WW2 the West has collectively allowed America to dictate policy.
In the Lead, Follow, or Get out of the way principle. America shouldered the lions share of defense expenditures and deployed large Armies into Europe and South Korea in turn for being accepted to call the shots.
Kevin, the Brits, French and Israeli's tried to go it alone with Suez and the US made it very much apparent to the 3 of them that the US thought they were offside and were pissed off that the US was completely kept in the dark before the war started - sounds familiar doesn't it?

The US's reaction to the Suez was a major factor in De Gaulle's decision to pull out of NATO. The French to be able to maintain whatever 'freedom of action, freedom of movement' that they were still able to independently achieve. Their almost total ability to still act in their 'best interests' throughout the former French colonies in Africa is a perfect example of this.
 
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