KevinB
Army.ca Relic
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Probably not wrong.
Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
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The day IS still young as I share this (~0730 Eastern) ....
globalnews.ca
www.aljazeera.com
Trump says Iran deal coming Sunday - National | Globalnews.ca
Ahead of next week's G7 summit, U.S. President Donald Trump said a deal to end the war with Iran is expected to be signed Sunday and would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
globalnews.ca
Signing of US-Iran deal not on Trump’s public schedule
Signing of US-Iran deal not on Trump’s public schedule.
An agreement to possibly have an agreement. So a nothing burger to make it sound like something is happening.The day IS still young as I share this (~0730 Eastern) ....
Trump says Iran deal coming Sunday - National | Globalnews.ca
Ahead of next week's G7 summit, U.S. President Donald Trump said a deal to end the war with Iran is expected to be signed Sunday and would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Signing of US-Iran deal not on Trump’s public schedule
Signing of US-Iran deal not on Trump’s public schedule.
HavokFour
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Just in time.
Israel continues strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs, killing 3
Two people were killed and four others wounded in the strike, which targeted an apartment in Dahiyeh, state news agency NNA reported.
www.nbcnews.com
Trump on Beirut strike: Netanyahu ‘has no f**king judgment’
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Just in time.
Israel continues strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs, killing 3
Two people were killed and four others wounded in the strike, which targeted an apartment in Dahiyeh, state news agency NNA reported.
Trump on Beirut strike: Netanyahu ‘has no f**king judgment’
I dont actually.
There’s a potential that this fundamentally, if minorly, shifts the dynamics between the U.S. and Israel.Bibi has now put himself on the wrong side of something Trump clearly Rey badly wants. Conversely, Israel is now being hit with new tactics by Hezbollah - the widespread use of SUAS like we’ve seen in Ukraine - that won’t go away and that could potentially be sustained indefinitely. Geography is very much not on Israel’s side here; they lack depth.
So, Israel’s in a military bind (not a huge one per se, but it’s an increased trickle of quite visible casualties), and Bibi is in a major political one. Their response, continued ops bordering on occupation of southern Lebanon coupled with sporadic bombings in Beirut, appears to cross a red line Iran takes seriously.
Meanwhile, the U.S. badly needs a deal with Iran that reopens global trade routes impacted by the near closure of Hormuz. The U.S. needs it economically and Trump needs it politically.
This imperative runs afoul of America’s usually… let’s call it solicitous relationship with Israel. Trump has to really grip the leash on Israel if they’re to get Iran to accept peace terms. But that leaves Israel sort of at the mercy of continued drone strikes by Hezbollah, broadcast daily online. It makes Bibi look quite weak, all the moreso when Trump says he ‘does what he’s told’, to paraphrase.
Bibi faces a real predicament and I think we’ll see Israel aggressively try to leverage Congress against Trump on this. Israel is economically quite resilient to closure of the strait of Hormuz compared with many other nations. They can weather that. Politically, Netenyahu may not be able to weather Hezbollah continuing to kill and maim Israeli soldiers with impunity.
I don’t know how this plays out, because at the centre of it is Trump with all of his erratic self-interest. He’s gonna start throwing people under the bus soon for getting him mired in this…
So, Israel’s in a military bind (not a huge one per se, but it’s an increased trickle of quite visible casualties), and Bibi is in a major political one. Their response, continued ops bordering on occupation of southern Lebanon coupled with sporadic bombings in Beirut, appears to cross a red line Iran takes seriously.
Meanwhile, the U.S. badly needs a deal with Iran that reopens global trade routes impacted by the near closure of Hormuz. The U.S. needs it economically and Trump needs it politically.
This imperative runs afoul of America’s usually… let’s call it solicitous relationship with Israel. Trump has to really grip the leash on Israel if they’re to get Iran to accept peace terms. But that leaves Israel sort of at the mercy of continued drone strikes by Hezbollah, broadcast daily online. It makes Bibi look quite weak, all the moreso when Trump says he ‘does what he’s told’, to paraphrase.
Bibi faces a real predicament and I think we’ll see Israel aggressively try to leverage Congress against Trump on this. Israel is economically quite resilient to closure of the strait of Hormuz compared with many other nations. They can weather that. Politically, Netenyahu may not be able to weather Hezbollah continuing to kill and maim Israeli soldiers with impunity.
I don’t know how this plays out, because at the centre of it is Trump with all of his erratic self-interest. He’s gonna start throwing people under the bus soon for getting him mired in this…
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Trump will abandon Bibi at his peril. There is a lot of big money with ties to Israel.
I don’t think things are getting signed today.
Interesting to see what the secondary effect of this will be on Trump trying to effect his will at the G7…
I don’t think things are getting signed today.
Interesting to see what the secondary effect of this will be on Trump trying to effect his will at the G7…
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Bit surprised that Trump hasn’t pushed to have Bibi attend and attempt to hammer out a wider agreement with Lebanon, Gaza and Iran.Trump will abandon Bibi at his peril. There is a lot of big money with ties to Israel.
I don’t think things are getting signed today.
Interesting to see what the secondary effect of this will be on Trump trying to effect his will at the G7…
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Maybe a variation on the “why aren’t you ingrates helping us (after all the time we’ve spent dissing you)?” approach? Ya never know wit’ dis guy …Interesting to see what the secondary effect of this will be on Trump trying to effect his will at the G7…
KevinB
Army.ca Relic
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Iran in the rear view of a Israeli F-35…
If Iran doesn’t stop Hez, I sadly do see this as an Israeli COA, especially if Israel feels abandoned.
They don’t have the depth without making massive pushes into Lebanon, which will still leave the IDF vulnerable to SUAS strikes.
You can’t totally blame Israel for hitting positions in Lebanon regardless if it’s an Iranian Red Line, as it is used to attack Israelis from.
Iran needs to muzzle Hezbollah, or accept that the Israeli responses. Which of course is 180 degrees from their objective to help Hezbollah destroy Israel.
Trump can whine all he wants, but Congress (IMHO) is going to support Israel in this, and it’s going to get bigger and bigger and bigger. I already posted my thoughts on what happens if Israel has to go it alone.
If Iran doesn’t stop Hez, I sadly do see this as an Israeli COA, especially if Israel feels abandoned.
They don’t have the depth without making massive pushes into Lebanon, which will still leave the IDF vulnerable to SUAS strikes.
You can’t totally blame Israel for hitting positions in Lebanon regardless if it’s an Iranian Red Line, as it is used to attack Israelis from.
Iran needs to muzzle Hezbollah, or accept that the Israeli responses. Which of course is 180 degrees from their objective to help Hezbollah destroy Israel.
Trump can whine all he wants, but Congress (IMHO) is going to support Israel in this, and it’s going to get bigger and bigger and bigger. I already posted my thoughts on what happens if Israel has to go it alone.
Oldgateboatdriver
Army.ca Fixture
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This conflict may actually cause the Americans (in general, of all parties) to realize finally that ever since they started backing Israel (remember, the US was against Israel's actions and not generally supportive at the time of the Suez crisis - it came after that time as a result of Israel's propaganda in the US strategy supported by their New York diaspora), it was because Israel and Jewish money in the US bought their interests politically but it has nothing to do with US interests in the region and was always about Israel's own goals and interests protection without any reciprocal benefit to the US.
HavokFour
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Just in time for open on Monday, however no chance of pens touching paper until Friday.
And it'll be interesting to see where this is going to go.
www.nytimes.com
EDIT: Per Iranian media (Mehr News), this is what the MOU draft looks like.
And it'll be interesting to see where this is going to go.
Trump Claims Strait Will be ‘Permanently Toll Free’ Under Agreement With Iran
In a call to The New York Times, President Trump praised Russia and China’s leaders and described Israel’s prime minister as “a very difficult guy.”
EDIT: Per Iranian media (Mehr News), this is what the MOU draft looks like.
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All of this to get to the same deal Obama signed.Just in time for open on Monday, however no chance of pens touching paper until Friday.
And it'll be interesting to see where this is going to go.
Trump Claims Strait Will be ‘Permanently Toll Free’ Under Agreement With Iran
In a call to The New York Times, President Trump praised Russia and China’s leaders and described Israel’s prime minister as “a very difficult guy.”
EDIT: Per Iranian media (Mehr News), this is what the MOU draft looks like.
Brilliant.
I suspect we’ll see some ‘navigational’ or ‘environmental protection’ fee at least attempted to be levied by Iran so Trump can let it happen but say there’s no ‘toll’.Just in time for open on Monday, however no chance of pens touching paper until Friday.
And it'll be interesting to see where this is going to go.
Trump Claims Strait Will be ‘Permanently Toll Free’ Under Agreement With Iran
In a call to The New York Times, President Trump praised Russia and China’s leaders and described Israel’s prime minister as “a very difficult guy.”
EDIT: Per Iranian media (Mehr News), this is what the MOU draft looks like.
Waiting to see what comes out in terms of solid info about sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, etc.
Though Israel and Hezbollah will probably scupper this whole thing anyway. Now, Hezbollah being an Iranian proxy, it’ll be interesting to see how much Iran chooses to rein them in and how much they want them still poking Israel in the eye.
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Holy F**k even Obama din't bend that far over
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Iran didnt have any leverage over Obama.
Iran is actively holding the global energy, fertilizer and aluminium markets hostage.
By allies I would assume that is referring to Israel. Good luck with Bibi handing over a Shekel. This is probably going to expedite tRumps pullout from ‘ungrateful’ NATO; he’s going to need to siphon off the money from somewhere.
KevinB
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Hostage taking works up to the point when the hostages aren’t worth as much as getting rid of the hostage takers(s).
