Iran Super Thread- Merged

[brihard]

If I was the rest of the G7, I’d be having an after meeting to come up a consensus on what to do when it all goes to hell.

Save mum, shoot Phil, go to the Winchester, have a pint and wait for this whole thing to blow over.

 

[Infanteer]

All kidding aside, it is useful to go back to look at the (stated) military objectives and (assumed) political war aims and to compare them to the agreement the US just signed with Iran.

It isn't necessary to try to divine US strategic objectives in this war - Hegseth and Caine explicitly listed them in a press conference:

1. Dismantle Iran’s missile launch capability
2. Degrade Iran’s defense-industrial base
3. Degrade Iran’s navy
4. Prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon

The one (major) issue is a mercurial President who seems to flip-flop daily on whether regime change is the stated political aim to guide these objectives, or if simply establishing deterrence will do.

While these provide a clear list of strategic objectives, I did hear a great podcast listing three potential political objectives driving these (different policy makers are probably driven by one or a combination of these):

1. Underwriting Iran as a threat in a future confrontation with China. Combining this with mollifying Russia by trying to offer it Ukraine means the US can face China alone. (geostrategic objective)
2. Eliminating a long-standing enemy of the United States who has consistently opposed it and attacked it when it can, and who is deeply despised by many Americans. (ideological objective)
3. Establish control over additional crude oil production. Combining this with Venezuela means that the US could have a direct say in the sources for 25% of China's oil (even more if friendly Gulf Arab states are included), and can enable Trump to cut deals. (economic objective)

First, military:

• Dismantle Iran’s missile launch capability - nope, clearly didn't do that as Iran continued to fire them off at will and there were constant assessments that underground missile facilities were being brought back on-line. Trump, yesterday, said that Iran should have missiles, which only speaks to the inability of the US to achieve this objective.
• Degrade Iran's defense-industrial base - maybe? But that can be fixed.
• Degarde Iran's navy - maybe, but did they get the important stuff? Iran's ability to keep the straits closed tells me they didn't do this to the extent that they wanted.
• Prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon - maybe, it is a point in the agreement, but the JCPOA said the same.

Now lets go to political:

• Underwriting Iran as a threat in a future confrontation with China - nope. Apparently China was busy shuttling things into Iran, and this war will only bring Iran further under China's wing (just like Ukraine has brought Russia to it as well). Add to this that Iran significantly ran down US magazine stocks, and gave the Chinese a good assessment of the strengths and weakness of current US systems and munitions, and you'd say the Chinese truly benefited from this war.
• Eliminating a long-standing enemy of the United States who has consistently opposed it and attacked it when it can, and who is deeply despised by many Americans - nope, IGRC is running the place. Go look up the biography of Vahidi and tell me if that's better than Khameini. The first day decapitation strike, while spectacular, was a failure and the lack of any real plan to impose regime change only amplified this failure.
• Establish control over additional crude oil production - nope, by giving up the Straits, Trump basically repudiated the Carter Doctrine, and the stability of that US guarantee is now gone.

It is hard to sell that as anything other than a political and military failure to achieve stated or implied objectives.

 

[HavokFour]

A "fee", not a toll.

Iran announces plans to bring in maritime fees for strait of Hormuz

As US lifts its blockade, Tehran says fees to cover cost of managing waterway will come into effect at end of 60-day negotiation period

www.theguardian.com

 

[Brad Sallows]

It's a shitty deal, that anyone who is a diehard Trump fan is struggling to put lipstick on a pig.

It's more of a proverbial "litmus test" to find out who the diehards are.

 

[HavokFour]

Iran is really driving that wedge home.

Israel stunned by Vance attack and implied US weapons warning

Israel surprised by Vance’s sharp criticism but avoids response to prevent deeper Trump rift; Ben-Gvir and Zohar reply publicly while official says Netanyahu brought Trump ‘the headache’

www.ynetnews.com

US-Iran talks in Switzerland abruptly called off

JD Vance’s staff were at the airbase ready to fly to summit in Bürgenstock for Iran talks before trip was suddenly cancelled

www.theguardian.com

The cancellation of the talks came after a report from Al-Mayadeen, an Arabic language network that is politically allied with the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, that said Tehran was delaying sending its delegation to Switzerland due to Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Lebanon.

Israel, which was not included in the peace talks and has distanced itself from the US-Iran agreement, has continued its fighting in Lebanon and launched fresh airstrikes early on Friday, accusing Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire.

 

[Altair]

Iran is really driving that wedge home.

Israel stunned by Vance attack and implied US weapons warning

Israel surprised by Vance’s sharp criticism but avoids response to prevent deeper Trump rift; Ben-Gvir and Zohar reply publicly while official says Netanyahu brought Trump ‘the headache’

www.ynetnews.com

US-Iran talks in Switzerland abruptly called off

JD Vance’s staff were at the airbase ready to fly to summit in Bürgenstock for Iran talks before trip was suddenly cancelled

www.theguardian.com

Vance was having fun with that.

If the rumours are true that he wanted nothing to do with the war, sticking it to the ones who dragged the USA to war must have felt nice.

 

[ytz]

The Ayatollah says he doesn't approve.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2067702640570482736

 

[ytz]

If I was the rest of the G7, I’d be having an after meeting to come up a consensus on what to do when it all goes to hell.

Their ex-Trump WhatsApp group must be a trip.

 

[ytz]

Vance was having fun with that.

If the rumours are true that he wanted nothing to do with the war, sticking it to the ones who dragged the USA to war must have felt nice.

Except that now MAGA seems to be pinning this whole thing on him. Nice way to clear the r runway for one of the Trump kids. There goes 2028 for Vance. Hilarious.

 

[ytz]

A "fee", not a toll.

Iran announces plans to bring in maritime fees for strait of Hormuz

As US lifts its blockade, Tehran says fees to cover cost of managing waterway will come into effect at end of 60-day negotiation period

www.theguardian.com

Creating permanent pressure on global oil prices is a great way to encourage the energy transition. Trump and the Ayatollah are great environmentalists!

 

[YZT580]

Creating permanent pressure on global oil prices is a great way to encourage the energy transition. Trump and the Ayatollah are great environmentalists!

or create pipelines to the coast

 

[Altair]

or create pipelines to the coast

Pipelines go boom.

 

[YZT580]

Pipelines go boom.

not here

 

[Altair]

not here

Ah, i thought you were talking about the saudis.

 

[brihard]

A "fee", not a toll.

Iran announces plans to bring in maritime fees for strait of Hormuz

As US lifts its blockade, Tehran says fees to cover cost of managing waterway will come into effect at end of 60-day negotiation period

www.theguardian.com

Man, I called that one…

 

[McG]

Nope. I lied. This man wins the internet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2066943924942316029

I am voting for this one.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2067967635258544164