Iran Super Thread- Merged

[brihard]

He could also point the finger at Israel, with certain incredibly unhelpful comments that have been made.

Israeli official spurns call for truce: ‘All of Lebanon must burn’​

Yeah… Netenyahu’s between an increasingly hard rock and an increasingly hard place. Some of the other Israeli leadership are really not helping.

This.

U.S. is around 25% of its SPR capacity and burning more to keep gas prices low at home. The SPR floor is variously reported to be 10-20% of max holdings (~850MBBL IIRC), so the U.S. is approaching a formative moment soon regarding its reserve.

Mm hm. It’s not like a pint of beer or a box of cereal where empty is just empty. Storage, pipes, and refining equipment need a lot of stock moving through pipes to maintain safe operating pressures, refining processes, etc etc. my understanding is the system does not lend itself to much stop and start. Functionally empty comes well before physically empty.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Not to mention the salt caverns they use to store the oil might become unstable.

 

[brihard]

Not to mention the salt caverns they use to store the oil might become unstable.

Both sides face potential infrastructure problems, yes. It may well come down to which side is more resilient to the economic and societal pain, and is willing to take the punches longer. The dynamics in play there will be very, very different between a somewhat fractured democracy facing elections in five months, and an autocracy willing to do a bit of murder-death-kill when the population gets uppity.

If it’s a question of oil trade chicken, my money is reluctantly on Iran.