Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Furniture]

You can make the same points without stomping your feet. It doesn’t make any of what you’re saying stronger or more well founded.

I'm not stomping my feet, I'm mocking the notion that two desperate groups can cause global economic cataclysm via drone and missile strikes.

There simply may not be an easy, quick, or low cost way out of this. There are ways out, I’m sure, but they may be short to mid term painful.

I never said there was, and it's pretty disingenuous to try to frame my points that way.

I simply have stated that if the economic impact is as painful as you and @Altair imagine, there will be a global response.

The rest of the world will only be pushed so far before it reacts.

As for escorting ships, again, it's something even the US navy wont do. And the logistics of it, as far as I have read, is 8 escorts for a convoy of 5 ships. So 100 ships a day, needs what, a around the clock force of 160 warships?

That assumes Iran and the Houthi can maintain a full court press daily... there is no more reason to believe that than there is to believe an escorting force can protect every ship.

It comes down to numbers. How many ships hit vs. How many make it through and keep the world plugging along.

Of course governments will fall. But they would fall regardless of whether they join any effort to open the SOH.

So your sage advise to the world would be, "just let it happen"? Make no effort to confront the problem?

I'm not sure you'd get many followers.

I'm predicting the 3rd world starves and the rich world suffers from astronomical oil prices because Trump decided that he could "make a deal"

So another Monday? Why all the Sturm und Drang on here if your prediction is just the normal state of the world?

 

[Altair]

I'm not stomping my feet, I'm mocking the notion that two desperate groups can cause global economic cataclysm via drone and missile strikes.

The global economy needs oil. 10-20 percent of the global oil supply is currently offline. Global oil reserves are 4-6 weeks away from being empty.

Oil is about to skyrocket in price as scarcity becomes more widespread.

I never said there was, and it's pretty disingenuous to try to frame my points that way.

I simply have stated that if the economic impact is as painful as you and @Altair imagine, there will be a global response.

There will be. It won't be military.

The rest of the world will only be pushed so far before it reacts.

I'll believe it when I see it. Nobody is planning for it. Nobody is talking about it. Nobody is preparing their publics for it. We aren't seeing naval personel being called up. We aren't seeing a coalition forming. These things take time, there would be signs. A unified command. NATO, the UN, someone would take the lead. And most importantly, threats. There would be threats because threats before action is usually how things work. It's a very trump only thing to simply throw the military at a problem like Iran without a plan, not something the rest of the world will do.

And everyone knows we are a month, month and a half away from global oil reserves being exhausted. Yet....

Crickets. Crickets everywhere.

That assumes Iran and the Houthi can maintain a full court press daily... there is no more reason to believe that than there is to believe an escorting force can protect every ship.

I remember people saying this in freaking march.

It comes down to numbers. How many ships hit vs. How many make it through and keep the world plugging along.

Crickets.

So your sage advise to the world would be, "just let it happen"? Make no effort to confront the problem?

I'm not sure you'd get many followers.

I'm not saying that's my sage advice. I'm saying this is what is most likely to happen if trump doesn't back down. But let's face it, he got spooked when everyone told him what oil would spike to last time. He will back down again before we cross that point. And if he doesn't....well, let's see what the global economy does without oil. Might be the biggest catalyst for the green transition we have ever seen.

Fun fact, China is using less oil now than it has in the previous 10 years. Again, China, winners of this. Congrats USA, China first.

So another Monday? Why all the Sturm und Drang on here if your prediction is just the normal state of the world?

Another Monday?

No.

This will be an unprecedented oil shock. Very rarely has the economy had to deal with not enough oil. Like, physically not enough oil. That's going to hit the global economy worse than covid did.