HavokFour
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Not the only one noticing and it sounds like they'd welcome it, knowing how it might go.
Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
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Not the only one noticing and it sounds like they'd welcome it, knowing how it might go.
How far along are they with the development of lasers? The British were supposed to have one ready for trial several months back but haven't heard much since.
Oldgateboatdriver
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Horses for courses. Guns aren't going to stop a ballistic missile, that's what Patriot and THAAD are for. Guns are useful for targets like Shaded drones and slow/low cruise missiles. Systems like NASAAM are for cruise missiles, aircraft, etc. You need a layered AD system to counter a variety of incoming weapon types.
The problem is that it appears that the US and its allies in the Gulf may have less AD...or the wrong mix of AD (not enough of the low/medium end) than the Iranians have drones and missiles. That can lead to top end systems like Patriot being used against missiles/drones that could more economically be intercepted by cheaper systems if they were available. The same has/is happening in Ukraine where they are reportedly now launching single Patriot interceptors against an incoming missile while original TTPs called for multiple interceptors to ensure destruction.
Also, unfortunately it appears that Iran can produce Ballistic Missiles quicker and more cheaply that the US can build Patriots. That's not good math.
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Patriots have been used in several conflicts since the 1990’s. Only now I’m hearing about shortages and the inability to produce more at a reasonable timeframe. Did something change in the production of these missiles or is Iran bombarding them that much more than Patriots have faced in past conflicts?
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Sounds like someone, somewhere, fumbled the ball on the US side…..
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Seems like everyone, everywhere in the West (Israel excluded) fumbled the ball due to the myth of total Western air superiority. We all felt we didn't have to worry about threats from the air because we controlled it.
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Quantity has a quality all its own.
The hobbyist electronics community have cheap and simple components readily available that can be integrated into good enough control and guidance systems (look at the Raspberry Pi Pico from $4 and Sparkfun GPS/GLONASS/Gailieo modules for $28).
SparkFun GNSS Breakout - Chip Antenna, SAM-M8Q (Qwiic)
Powered by the 72-channel SAM-M8Q engine, this breakout tracks GPS, GLONASS, and Galileo simultaneously. Includes a built-in smart antenna and LNA for superior reception.
www.sparkfun.com
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The ‘enemy’ proving once again that for every problem there’s a solution out there waiting to be discovered.
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Because there use went up with Ukraine and Israel consuming a lot and production did not increase to match.
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Production increased exponentially. The issue is that there is a gap between signing a contract to increase acquisitions, and actually having a slew more in storage.
A lot of other factors in there as well.
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From AI re: the production time for a Patriot missile
AI ASSISTED
It takes approximately 24 months to manufacture a single Patriot PAC-3 MSE missile. The production of the solid rocket motor alone requires around 30 months, while final system delivery can take longer due to complex supply chain logistics, parts sourcing, and quality assurance.
The production timeline is heavily constrained by several physical and industrial factors:
It takes approximately 24 months to manufacture a single Patriot PAC-3 MSE missile. The production of the solid rocket motor alone requires around 30 months, while final system delivery can take longer due to complex supply chain logistics, parts sourcing, and quality assurance.
The production timeline is heavily constrained by several physical and industrial factors:
- Component Curing: Solid-fuel rocket motors require lengthy, specialized curing processes.
- Supply Chain: Lockheed Martin and Raytheon rely on hundreds of sub-tier suppliers for specific parts, such as seekers and airframes, which pace the overall build rate.
- Testing & Assembly: Strict federal requirements mean that final assembly and vetting take years to scale, with Lockheed projecting it will take until 2030 to triple overall production capacity.
Of course the missiles are not produced one at a time but (again per AI) monthly production numbers are relatively low:
AI ASSISTED
The United States currently produces roughly 50 to 55 Patriot interceptor missiles per month. [1, 2]
As of 2026, global production remains a major bottleneck for Western air defenses. While the system's launchers and radars are built by Raytheon, the actual interceptor missiles—specifically the highly advanced PAC-3 MSE (Missile Segment Enhancement) variants—are manufactured exclusively by Lockheed Martin at its single assembly plant in Camden, Arkansas. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
The current production trajectory and the aggressive expansion plans underway include:
Current vs. Future Production Rates
Why is Production So Slow?
Unlike basic artillery or tactical rockets, Patriot interceptors are incredibly sophisticated and face rigid supply chain realities: [1, 2, 3]
The United States currently produces roughly 50 to 55 Patriot interceptor missiles per month. [1, 2]
As of 2026, global production remains a major bottleneck for Western air defenses. While the system's launchers and radars are built by Raytheon, the actual interceptor missiles—specifically the highly advanced PAC-3 MSE (Missile Segment Enhancement) variants—are manufactured exclusively by Lockheed Martin at its single assembly plant in Camden, Arkansas. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
The current production trajectory and the aggressive expansion plans underway include:
Current vs. Future Production Rates
- Current Baseline (2025–2026): Lockheed Martin delivered 620 missiles over the course of 2025, which averages out to ~51.6 missiles per month. [1, 2, 3]
- Near-Term Ramp Up (2027): Production lines are on track to scale up to an output of 750 missiles annually (about 62 per month). [1]
- The 2030 Target: In January 2026, the Pentagon and Lockheed Martin signed a major $4.7 billion framework agreement to more than triple annual manufacturing capacity. The ultimate goal is to churn out 2,000 Patriot missiles per year (roughly 166 per month) by the end of 2030. [1, 2]
Why is Production So Slow?
Unlike basic artillery or tactical rockets, Patriot interceptors are incredibly sophisticated and face rigid supply chain realities: [1, 2, 3]
- Unforgiving Lead Times: It takes approximately 24 months to manufacture a PAC-3 MSE missile frame and up to 30 months to cure and finish its highly specialized solid-fuel rocket motor. [1]
- Supply Bottlenecks: The missile's advanced guidance packages and radar transducers (manufactured by sub-contractors like Boeing) rely on highly precise electronic components that cannot be easily mass-produced or fast-tracked. [1, 2]
- Global Demand Strain: This monthly output of ~52 missiles must be shared across the United States military, active combat zones like Ukraine, and 18 other allied nations (including heavy buyers in Europe and the Middle East). [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Meanwhile here is an estimate of Iranian ballistic missile production:
AI ASSISTED
Iran produces an estimated 100 ballistic missiles per month during active military conditions, though this rate fluctuates significantly based on foreign supply lines and combat disruptions. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Following the June 2025 escalation and subsequent military strikes targeting Iranian manufacturing infrastructure, intelligence reports tracking Tehran's defense industrial base highlight a highly volatile output curve: [1, 2, 3]
Current Production Trends
The Disparity: Short-Range vs. Medium-Range
The "100 missiles per month" figure is not uniform across all missile classes: [1, 2]
Iran produces an estimated 100 ballistic missiles per month during active military conditions, though this rate fluctuates significantly based on foreign supply lines and combat disruptions. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Following the June 2025 escalation and subsequent military strikes targeting Iranian manufacturing infrastructure, intelligence reports tracking Tehran's defense industrial base highlight a highly volatile output curve: [1, 2, 3]
Current Production Trends
- The Baseline Rate: Intelligence estimates cited by Western officials and groups like the Institute for the Study of War indicate that despite continuous targeted airstrikes on manufacturing nodes, Iran has repeatedly managed to sustain or rapidly reconstitute an assembly pace of ~100 missiles per month. [1, 2, 3]
- Post-Strike Bottlenecks: Immediately following heavy precision strikes on mixing facilities (such as solid-propellant production centers in Parchin and Khojjir), regional defense experts note that output temporarily drops to "dozens of projectiles per month" (roughly 40 to 50 units) while underground lines are re-routed. [1, 2]
- Aggressive Scaling Targets: Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) intelligence tracking reveals that Tehran has actively attempted to accelerate its baseline infrastructure. Iran’s strategic objective is a rapid buildup to expand its surviving stockpile from roughly 2,500 missiles back up to over 5,000 to 8,000 ballistic missiles within a two-year window. [, 2]
The Disparity: Short-Range vs. Medium-Range
The "100 missiles per month" figure is not uniform across all missile classes: [1, 2]
- Short-Range & Tactical (High Yield): The vast majority of monthly production consists of solid-fueled short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) like the Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar. These require far less assembly time because their solid-propellant blocks can be mass-cast in underground facilities. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
- Medium-Range Strategic (Low Yield): Heavier liquid-fueled medium-range systems (MRBMs) capable of traveling 1,000+ kilometers, like the Emad or Khorramshahr, take significantly longer to produce. Their sophisticated guidance systems and precise engine plumbing mean they are built in much smaller numbers each month
daftandbarmy
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daftandbarmy
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More attacks on critical infrastructure in Kuwait, a combined power and desalination plant again. Not clear if the desalination part was hit.
The criticality of Gulf desalination plants cannot be overstated. The states are very dependent on seawater processed to remove the salt; this is their clean water source for most. If these plants get knocked out, major urban areas could become uninhabitable. I believe Iran is showing a reminder that they too have the capacity to cause unmitigable economic destruction.
The criticality of Gulf desalination plants cannot be overstated. The states are very dependent on seawater processed to remove the salt; this is their clean water source for most. If these plants get knocked out, major urban areas could become uninhabitable. I believe Iran is showing a reminder that they too have the capacity to cause unmitigable economic destruction.
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Back to killing slaves?
daftandbarmy
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Or the ‘mandatory man love’ thing …
Two more American fatalities have been announced; a soldier was previously reported missing in Jordan at the same location two were killed. Unidentified remains have now been recovered and they’re working to verify.
Separately, CENTCOM reports one U.S. soldier killled and another minorly injured during a controlled demolition of a downed Iranian one way attack drone.
Separately, CENTCOM reports one U.S. soldier killled and another minorly injured during a controlled demolition of a downed Iranian one way attack drone.
