Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)

[HavokFour]

IDF claims over 200 launchers destroyed so far. Early estimates were that 120 made up a third of the total over all, so Iran might have had roughly ~360 to start.

IDF will not end Iran offensive until nuke and missile threats removed, senior general says

Iranian command structure continues to crumble.

Israel says it bombed secret Iran military command center, scattering brass

Loyalty is about to get tested if the money isn't flowing. Sepah Bank is responsible for paying the salaries of the Iranian police, army and Revolutionary Guard.

Iran hit by major cyberattack as IDF intel chief hints at further action

Pro-Israel hacker group reportedly launches cyberattack crippling Iran’s Sepah Bank—used to fund IRGC missile and nuclear programs—disrupting ATMs, gas stations and financial services

www.ynetnews.com

 

[The Bread Guy]

Bombing orgs responsible for keeping folks under the boss’s thumb? Check.

Piss people off even more to, hypothetically, get them to push for governance reform? Check …

Cyberattack targets Iran’s Sepah Bank, disrupting services, gas stations | The Jerusalem Post

Anti-regime activist group "Gonjeshke Darande" (Predatory Sparrow) claimed responsibility for the attack

www.jpost.com

 

[Quirky]

At least they said 'Iran Bad'

G7 Leaders’ statement on recent developments between Israel and Iran

We, the leaders of the G7, reiterate our commitment to peace and stability in the Middle East.

www.pm.gc.ca

Phew, I'm glad they found time to release that statement between meetings and wine tasting at Kananaskis. This will ensure Israeli victory for sure.

 

[HavokFour]

Bombing orgs responsible for keeping folks under the boss’s thumb? Check.

Piss people off even more to, hypothetically, get them to push for governance reform? Check …

Cyberattack targets Iran’s Sepah Bank, disrupting services, gas stations | The Jerusalem Post

Anti-regime activist group "Gonjeshke Darande" (Predatory Sparrow) claimed responsibility for the attack

www.jpost.com

More signs, the Police & Basij HQ in Kashan has apparently been attacked.

~200km south of Tehran.

Report of an attack on the police headquarters in the city of Kashan, Iran Kashan, Isfahan Province - Iran news on live map in English - Conflict in the Gulf- iran.liveuamap.com

Report of an attack on the police headquarters in the city of Kashan, Iran. Explore Iran local news alerts & today's headlines geolocated on live map on website or application. Focus on Iran protests, politics, military news and security alerts

iran.liveuamap.com

חדשות מהשטח בטלגרם

דיווח על תקיפה במטה המשטרה בעיר כאשאן באיראן http://t.me/yediotnews

t.me

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934976527160021270

 

[HavokFour]

Another small wave, a bottleneck of some kind has definitely been reached.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/no-reports-of-impacts-or-injuries-after-iran-fires-handful-of-missiles-at-israel/

The state broadcaster has been hit yet again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934973583316357241

 

[RangerRay]

Another small wave, a bottleneck of some kind has definitely been reached.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/no-reports-of-impacts-or-injuries-after-iran-fires-handful-of-missiles-at-israel/

The state broadcaster has been hit yet again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934973583316357241

Was that lady shaking her finger at the camera on the air again?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Was that lady shaking her finger at the camera on the air again?

No, she's on a stress leave at the moment.

 

[brihard]

Lots of continued tanker traffic today from points in Europe continuing east to the Middle East. Some are at fueling altitude and there’s photo of at least one tanker over Italy towing F-35s.

Last night I saw a tanker doing racetrack laps at 25,000 northeast of Langley AFB.poked about right for F-22s out of Langley to take off, make altitude, top up, and carry on.

Loots like a heavy shifting of tactical aircraft and their supports east.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I have to wonder if some of the more "Centralists" and politicians focused on Iran and not foreign adventures might make a move with the army support to take over the reigns of power? The IRGC is weakened, but the army is mostly intact. With 50,000 of the 70,000 mosques now closed due to lack of attendance, the IRGC and Clerics, may not have the manpower to stop them. It would still be an Islamic theological government, but not quite as extreme.

 

[Staff Weenie]

Should the Regime collapse, I am curious as to what this means for Russian ambitions in the region. They have already lost Syria (mostly), that left Iran as their key regional 'partner' to play with. Would this also impact Russian drone supply, or has that all moved to Russia now?

 

[Remius]

Should the Regime collapse, I am curious as to what this means for Russian ambitions in the region. They have already lost Syria (mostly), that left Iran as their key regional 'partner' to play with. Would this also impact Russian drone supply, or has that all moved to Russia now?

Certainly won’t help BRICS…

 

[QV]

Maybe this is all just to slap them back a decade in development of their weapons program...

But, if this turns out to be a decapitation mission/regime change, I wonder what the long term objectives are:

• destroy the Iranian leadership and let Iranians sort it out themselves
• destroy the Iranian leadership and "nation build" with the "whole of government" approach
• destroy the Iranian leadership and provide SOF/Air Spt assistance to the chosen faction

I'd guess it will be the third option.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Maybe this is all just to slap them back a decade in development of their weapons program...

But, if this turns out to be a decapitation mission/regime change, I wonder what the long term objectives are:

• destroy the Iranian leadership and let Iranians sort it out themselves
• destroy the Iranian leadership and "nation build" with the "whole of government" approach
• destroy the Iranian leadership and provide SOF/Air Spt assistance to the chosen faction

I'd guess it will be the third option.

<hopeful sarcasm>I'm sure someone somewhere is sorting out how to rebuild society after they bomb the ever loving shit out of it to get regime change/nukes out of commission, right? So they don't go south again and bite those who help get rid of the bad guys in the ass? They did learn from Afghanistan and Iraq, right? Not to mention Europe preparing for all the refugees about to be headed that way, right?</hopeful sarcasm>

Meanwhile, key takeaways from the latest (1800E info cut off last night) from ISW:

• "Iran has reportedly maintained its uncompromising position regarding nuclear talks, meaning that it is not yet ready to negotiate an end to the war with Israel. Other reports have indicated that Iran may grant concessions if it is allowed to fully retaliate against Israel.
• The United States is deploying additional forces to the Middle East to “provide options to defend US assets and interests.” These forces include a carrier strike group and a high number of refueling tanker aircraft.
• The IAEA indicated that Israeli strikes have likely damaged or destroyed thousands of centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear site. The Fordow site remains largely unscathed, however, according to the IAEA.
• The Iranian capacity to conduct missile operations is likely degraded. The IDF has likely destroyed around a third of the Iranian missile launchers. Iran has also used between a third and a half of its missiles that can reach Israel.
• The IDF struck the IRIB headquarters in Iran likely to degrade the Iranian capacity to produce propaganda and shape the information environment. This came after the IDF began striking other regime institutions and energy infrastructure."

 

[Jarnhamar]

With 50,000 of the 70,000 mosques now closed due to lack of attendance,

I hope the morality police are out in force cracking skulls. That kind of blasphemy just isn't acceptable.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Should the Regime collapse, I am curious as to what this means for Russian ambitions in the region. They have already lost Syria (mostly), that left Iran as their key regional 'partner' to play with. Would this also impact Russian drone supply, or has that all moved to Russia now?

You're not alone in pondering that one, for sure.

How will Russia respond to the Israel-Iran conflict?

A delicate balancing act awaits Russia, one of Iran’s key allies that also maintains ties with Israel.

www.aljazeera.com

Aaaaaand lesson learned from the Hezbollah hip bombing fracas ....

Iran announces limited ban on smartphones and laptops

Iran has banned government officials and their bodyguards from using all communication devices linked to the networks. The ban, announced Tuesday, includes mobile phones, smart watches and laptops. Iran did not elaborate on the reason for the...

www.naharnet.com

 

[KevinB]

Should the Regime collapse, I am curious as to what this means for Russian ambitions in the region. They have already lost Syria (mostly), that left Iran as their key regional 'partner' to play with.

Well I think it has shown what a Russian security guarantee means.
(Just as much as an American or British one…)

Would this also impact Russian drone supply, or has that all moved to Russia now?

Well best OS stuff seems to suggest around 50/50 and Ukraine has also hit several Russian UAS manufacturing centers so I suspect it will hurt.

As well Russia was apparently getting some Missiles and Rockets from Iran as well as NK.

Worst case scenario is it degrades Russia a bit - but IMHO it will also stir up the as well as the Stan’s as they can see that Russia isn’t in a position to support a lot of it’s allies.

But Israel clearly gave Russia a giant middle finger here (given the whole Russian Mutual Defense Pact with Iran) and the question is: given Israeli earlier efforts to straddle the fence with Russia and Ukraine what could this mean for Israeli and Ukrainian cooperation from this point.

 

[brihard]

More calm, sober, and deliberate diplomacy from Trump as this situation continues to develop.

 

[KevinB]

More calm, sober, and deliberate diplomacy from Trump as this situation continues to develop.

View attachment 94008
View attachment 94009

He never misses an opportunity to take credit from others work does he.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

<hopeful sarcasm>I'm sure someone somewhere is sorting out how to rebuild society after they bomb the ever loving shit out of it to get regime change/nukes out of commission, right? So they don't go south again and bite those who help get rid of the bad guys in the ass? They did learn from Afghanistan and Iraq, right? Not to mention Europe preparing for all the refugees about to be headed that way, right?</hopeful sarcasm>

Meanwhile, key takeaways from the latest (1800E info cut off last night) from ISW:

• "Iran has reportedly maintained its uncompromising position regarding nuclear talks, meaning that it is not yet ready to negotiate an end to the war with Israel. Other reports have indicated that Iran may grant concessions if it is allowed to fully retaliate against Israel.
• The United States is deploying additional forces to the Middle East to “provide options to defend US assets and interests.” These forces include a carrier strike group and a high number of refueling tanker aircraft.
• The IAEA indicated that Israeli strikes have likely damaged or destroyed thousands of centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear site. The Fordow site remains largely unscathed, however, according to the IAEA.
• The Iranian capacity to conduct missile operations is likely degraded. The IDF has likely destroyed around a third of the Iranian missile launchers. Iran has also used between a third and a half of its missiles that can reach Israel.
• The IDF struck the IRIB headquarters in Iran likely to degrade the Iranian capacity to produce propaganda and shape the information environment. This came after the IDF began striking other regime institutions and energy infrastructure."

Iran already has the nutbars running the zoo, the hope is that the IRGC and Clerics will be weakened enough for a more centralist government to grab power, likley with the Army and people backing them. The only reason the IRGC/Cleric have not been pushed from power already is they controlled to much. Now that all of their foreign adventures have failed and lack of abilty to confront Israel is evident, they will lose the abilty to block reformists. I don't expect a fully democratic government, but a shift into one that is more domestically focused at rebuilding the country and reducing sanctions. No one is invading Iran, that adventure would dwarf the invasion of Iraq.

 

[Jarnhamar]

More calm, sober, and deliberate diplomacy from Trump as this situation continues to develop.

Trump legitimately sounds scary. Unhinged too.

At this point, I wouldn't put anything past him. He should take a social media break and definitely STFU about his deals.

It looks like Israel decided to launch on Iran and Trump is scrambling to take credit.