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Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)

When Hamas launches rockets into Israel and has command posts in/under those hospitals, yes, they are legitimate targets.
No doubt the Iranians will claim the same thing...and in both cases we are forced to rely on the information provided by those countries.

As an aside, and not related to this comment, I am done apologising for Israel, and find the false equivalence being drawn that says if you oppose Israel, you are an Anti-Semite insulting, dishonest, and intellectually lazy. In my case, nothing could be further from the truth, but that level of nuance escapes most.

It would be akin to being called anti-Christian if you disagreed with US policy or actions. Patently absurd...although I note that if the shooter in Minnesota had been muslim, we would have been talking about muslim extremist terrorists. The fact that he was fervently Christian and spent time and effort proselytizing and trying to convert foreigners to the Christian way seems unworthy of notice.

Rant off/
 


Kylie Jenner Tacos GIF by BuzzFeed


Trump to decide on US action in Israel-Iran conflict within 2 weeks, White House says

2 weeks, so hot right now.
 
Could mean something, could mean nothing. “Within” ≠ “in”, nor is it “no move before”. Also nothing Trump says is particularly reliable anyway.

My WAG? Plant a seed like this, wait for the HUMINT and SIGINT to see if Iran might actually cave, and decide from there. But I don’t think anything short of physically verified elimination of Fordow’s enrichment capabilities will satisfy at this point.
 
Anyone who thinks that is strength, 4D chess, genius, cunning, the work of a consummate deal maker etc is delusional.

I am willing to bet that the delay is because no one can guarantee that the MOP will do the job in a single pass, if at all. Bottom line - he is worried it won't work and he will look bad...which he has already achieved in spades.

Now we know what war looks like when it is conducted as a vanity project.
 
Anyone who thinks that is strength, 4D chess, genius, cunning, the work of a consummate deal maker etc is delusional.

I am willing to bet that the delay is because no one can guarantee that the MOP will do the job in a single pass, if at all. Bottom line - he is worried it won't work and he will look bad...which he has already achieved in spades.

Now we know what war looks like when it is conducted as a vanity project.
Each B-2 can carry two MOPs…Team Whitman seems to be out of the office on TDY…
 
No doubt the Iranians will claim the same thing...and in both cases we are forced to rely on the information provided by those countries.

As an aside, and not related to this comment, I am done apologising for Israel, and find the false equivalence being drawn that says if you oppose Israel, you are an Anti-Semite insulting, dishonest, and intellectually lazy. In my case, nothing could be further from the truth, but that level of nuance escapes most.

It would be akin to being called anti-Christian if you disagreed with US policy or actions. Patently absurd...although I note that if the shooter in Minnesota had been muslim, we would have been talking about muslim extremist terrorists. The fact that he was fervently Christian and spent time and effort proselytizing and trying to convert foreigners to the Christian way seems unworthy of notice.

Rant off/
I don’t have to love Israeli politicians to take satisfaction that Iran might actually be suffering consequences for attempting to destroy Israel since 1979 and for being both a neighbourhood and global menace over the same time frame.

You don’t want Israel shooting up your critical infrastructure and killing your top leadership? Stop threatening them with annihalation…
 
Now we are reminded by what war looks like when it is conducted as a vanity project.
FIFY.

Each B-2 can carry two MOPs…Team Whitman seems to be out of the office on TDY…

My guess is the discussion is about how many can we drop and remain deniable, and also how many will guarantee success. Then how long it will take to explain that guaranteed success isn’t really a thing,

Then how long it takes to discuss probability etc.
 
Anyone who thinks that is strength, 4D chess, genius, cunning, the work of a consummate deal maker etc is delusional.

I am willing to bet that the delay is because no one can guarantee that the MOP will do the job in a single pass, if at all. Bottom line - he is worried it won't work and he will look bad...which he has already achieved in spades.

Now we know what war looks like when it is conducted as a vanity project.
While the man himself could charitably be described as a 40 watt bulb in a 100 watt socket, it’s not like the U.S. military is suddenly bereft of competent and capable strategic planners, nor have some of America’s exquisite intelligence capabilities gone away. If one of the adults in the room presented him with a plan that lets him equivocate and stay non-committal, while bringing in more info, and potentially letting him back away from a move that would be unpopular with his base, I think that would appeal to him. He needn’t be a genius to see the merits in that approach.

Each B-2 can carry two MOPs…Team Whitman seems to be out of the office on TDY…

Yeah, but how many do they have and can they afford to use?
 
Key bits from the latest ISW summary (highlights mine) ...
  • "Iranian officials have expressed interest in negotiating an end to the Israel-Iran conflict but have not moderated their negotiating positions from before the conflict. Iranian proposals that do not fulfill US demands, such as the US demand for zero Iranian uranium enrichment, will likely preclude Iran from reaching a new nuclear deal with the United States and a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran War.
  • The IDF has continued to strike Iranian nuclear, military, and energy infrastructure. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on June 19 that "preventing [Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s] existence” is one of the Israeli air campaign’s objectives.
  • Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Mohammad Karami as the IRGC Ground Forces commander on June 19. Khamenei’s appointment of Karami may reflect regime concerns about potential domestic unrest, given that Karami has previously been involved in suppressing internal dissent.
  • Iran has continued its ballistic missile campaign despite the IDF’s claims that it has destroyed between one-half and two-thirds of Iran’s missile launchers. Iran has launched more advanced missiles targeting Israel since June 18.
  • Iranian-backed Iraqi militias continue to threaten retaliation if the United States joins the Israel-Iran War. The Kataib Hezbollah spokesperson warned on June 19, for example, that US participation in the war would trigger attacks on US bases in the region, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al Mandab, and the closure of ports in the Red Sea."
 

Attachments

The U.S. might be putting on a deliberate show of being seen to move assets consistent with a B2 shift west.


Whiteman AFB - home of the B2s - had been ‘closed’ per NOTAM until the 23rd. It has reopened early. Last night a couple C-17s left Whiteman after brief stops and flew west over the Pacific. Also yesterday a couple waves of tankers flew west.


This of course is in conjunction with the major move of tankers and fighters east to Europe/MIddle East over the last few days.
 
FYI, since media's starting to focus in more on the issue, moved the "Canadians GTFO'ing outta IRN/ISR (and who else?)" to a new thread so this can continue to stick to the fight on the ground.

Army.ca Staff
 
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