Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)

[PPCLI Guy]

It might be the Pres of ISIS was fed a quote & he okay’ed it

Say what now?

 

[YZT580]

If you're into the nitty-gritty, tech details, these guys (a techie think tank) have developed an OS BDA of sorts (also attached if link doesn't work for you) ....

Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities | ISIS Reports | Institute For Science And International Security

... with the overall conclusion being: looks like lotsa damage, looks like a setback to the program, but the underground infrastructure, still-existing centrifuges and existing uranium stocks could lead to bombs and make things tricky to predict down the road.

That said, as @KevinB and others way smarter than me have already said, the government has access to a lot better data, imagery & information than these guys, and even with that, we only know what the politicians and officials say, not what they've been told.

Do you really think that any of those sites could be re-opened any time soon. At the very least there would be months of tunneling and tons of concrete to pour before they even reached the working chambers and that would all be under the watchful eye of Mosad. No, my bet is they have another location that they can bring on line and they are working on getting the enriched materiel that they salvaged to that point without getting caught

 

[The Bread Guy]

Say what now?

Should have been clearer - from the "About" link ....

The Institute for Science and International Security is a non-profit, non-partisan institution dedicated to informing the public about science and policy issues affecting international security. Its primary focus is on stopping the spread of nuclear weapons and related technology to additional nations and to terrorists, bringing about greater transparency of nuclear activities worldwide, strengthening the international non-proliferation regime, and achieving deep cuts in nuclear arsenals ...

 

[Good2Golf]

Should have been clearer - from the "About" link ....

How on earth could they possibly have thought that sharing the same acronymic moniker with the ‘other ISIS’ was a good idea?

 

[The Bread Guy]

How on earth could they possibly have thought that sharing the same acronymic moniker with the ‘other ISIS’ was a good idea?

I kinda took a second glance the first time I noted the acronym in the report, too. Then again, it DID start 20 years before the more kinetic ISIS started - although it looks like nobody thought to do a review of the team acronym since then. I guess they don't take marketing in nuclear proliferation wonk school.

Although I don't know if an alternative name like, say, the Center for Universal Nuclear Transparency would be much better

 

[KevinB]

Do you really think that any of those sites could be re-opened any time soon. At the very least there would be months of tunneling and tons of concrete to pour before they even reached the working chambers and that would all be under the watchful eye of Mosad. No, my bet is they have another location that they can bring on line and they are working on getting the enriched materiel that they salvaged to that point without getting caught

Despite a lot of opinions to the contrary the equipment needed to enrich uranium or build a bomb that will do much isn't easily available - and very carefully tracked by a lot of eyes - doubly so for countries that have nefarious potential.
Iran has been under the eye of both Israel and the US government intelligence and military for a long time - making another facility isn't that easy , and the personnel are in low numbers so fairly well known and their travels are noted.

Iran's 'mistake' was starting late to the game, and the whole death to Israel and death to America thing, just puts a massive spotlight on them, that North Korea did not have the time. North Korea (and I supposed Iran) took the opposite lesson from the Iraq invasion.
Which was basically looking at the three bad countries that where not yet nuclear at the time, and deciding that Iraq was the easy one, as their populace was less radical (whoops), and the UN Mandate to enforce inspections or get the hammer as justification.
The goal of the US at the time was to show Iran and North Korea that if you went after the bomb, you got your teeth kicked in.
The North Koreans and Iranians took it to mean, the Americans are coming regardless, we need the bomb.
North Korea slid in - and that ensured that no one was going to let Iran get it.

 

[SupersonicMax]

 

[The Bread Guy]

View attachment 94267

 

[KevinB]

NEXT

GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator Successor In The Works

Here's what we know about the new weapon being sought to replace the B-2's MOP and equip the B-21 in the future.

www.twz.com

 

[Quirky]

NEXT

GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator Successor In The Works

Here's what we know about the new weapon being sought to replace the B-2's MOP and equip the B-21 in the future.

www.twz.com

Next Generation Penetrator

 

[HavokFour]

NEXT

GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator Successor In The Works

Here's what we know about the new weapon being sought to replace the B-2's MOP and equip the B-21 in the future.

www.twz.com

I hope they keep adding more 'M's. No need to thank me for this genius, American MIC. Just send the cheque in the mail.

More Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MMOP)

Much More Massove Ordnance Penetrator (MMMOP)

Massively Much More Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MMMMOP)

 

[AmmoTech90]

MMMMMBop

Deploy Hanson to Iran as cultural warfare.

 

[brihard]

NEXT

GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator Successor In The Works

Here's what we know about the new weapon being sought to replace the B-2's MOP and equip the B-21 in the future.

www.twz.com

If the existing mass is a limiting factor, they need to figure out how to achieve more penetration without more bomb. I’m assuming the existing bomb already achieved terminal velocity; aerodynamics could maybe achieve a bit more there. There’s probably not much more kinetic penetration to be achieved with a gravity bomb of capped mass. I wonder if they’ll potentially look at something that fires a rocket to increase its impact velocity and put more KE into the equation? That would presumably require an even more toughly built bomb so that the fixing and detonation parts survive to the desired explosion depth.

Quite the engineering challenge.

 

[HavokFour]

If the existing mass is a limiting factor, they need to figure out how to achieve more penetration without more bomb. I’m assuming the existing bomb already achieved terminal velocity; aerodynamics could maybe achieve a bit more there. There’s probably not much more kinetic penetration to be achieved with a gravity bomb of capped mass. I wonder if they’ll potentially look at something that fires a rocket to increase its impact velocity and put more KE into the equation? That would presumably require an even more toughly built bomb so that the fixing and detonation parts survive to the desired explosion depth.

Quite the engineering challenge.

What immediately comes to mind, is the possibility of revisiting the "rods from god" idea the USAF had from the early 2000's. Especially now both the Chinese and Russians may actively be developing space based weapon systems.

Hypervelocity Rod Bundles (HRB)

www.globalsecurity.org

Russian satellite linked to space weapon programme appears to malfunction in orbit

A mysterious Russian satellite, believed by US officials to support a nuclear anti-satellite weapon programme, is showing signs of erratic spinning in orbit – a potential setback for Moscow's military…

www.france24.com

Chinese satellites seen ‘dogfighting’, US Space Force official says

Objects observed ‘manoeuvring in and out and around each other’, practising tactics, techniques and procedures, according to USSF general.

www.scmp.com

 

[OldSolduer]

I hope they keep adding more 'M's. No need to thank me for this genius, American MIC. Just send the cheque in the mail.

More Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MMOP)

Much More Massove Ordnance Penetrator (MMMOP)

Massively Much More Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MMMMOP)

You forgot “beautiful “ in the title

 

[brihard]

What immediately comes to mind, is the possibility of revisiting the "rods from god" idea the USAF had from the early 2000's. Especially now both the Chinese and Russians may actively be developing space based weapon systems.

Hypervelocity Rod Bundles (HRB)

www.globalsecurity.org

Russian satellite linked to space weapon programme appears to malfunction in orbit

A mysterious Russian satellite, believed by US officials to support a nuclear anti-satellite weapon programme, is showing signs of erratic spinning in orbit – a potential setback for Moscow's military…

www.france24.com

Chinese satellites seen ‘dogfighting’, US Space Force official says

Objects observed ‘manoeuvring in and out and around each other’, practising tactics, techniques and procedures, according to USSF general.

www.scmp.com

I can’t find anything solid on what a phone pole sized tungsten rod would penetrate into the ground… I could see precision being a real challenge there though. Can’t really count on a seeker and guidance for a tiny CEP if it’s surround with plasma from atmospheric entry.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Do you really think that any of those sites could be re-opened any time soon. At the very least there would be months of tunneling and tons of concrete to pour before they even reached the working chambers and that would all be under the watchful eye of Mosad. No, my bet is they have another location that they can bring on line and they are working on getting the enriched materiel that they salvaged to that point without getting caught

Israel will use their HUMINT sources to let them know when they have almost finished opening up the underground areas and then hit them again.

 

[OldSolduer]

Rather than rely on gravity could one not strap a rocket on the Massive THING A MA JIG and have the rockets fire about 300m altitude, thereby driving it further?

Never mind - makes as much sense as making a twin engine fighter out of plywood.....

 

[SeaKingTacco]

I can’t find anything solid on what a phone pole sized tungsten rod would penetrate into the ground… I could see precision being a real challenge there though. Can’t really count on a seeker and guidance for a tiny CEP if it’s surround with plasma from atmospheric entry.

Apparently you can only get a penetration depth of about 80 x the rod diameter. The rod hits at 1.5 km/sec, releases about the equivalent of 11.5 tons of TNT, but is mostly surface effect, probably because it is going too fast.

 

[brihard]

Apparently you can only get a penetration depth of about 80 x the rod diameter. The rod hits at 1.5 km/sec, releases about the equivalent of 11.5 tons of TNT, but is mostly surface effect, probably because it is going too fast.

I was reading that, yeah. A separate article suggested one of the options under consideration is to orbit them high enough to achieve 5-10km/s, which would increase strike time to a few hours, but of course would add vastly more kinetic energy to the strike. I don’t know what kind of ratio of diameter to depth that would result in.

I’m certain I wouldn’t want to be where it lands, but I have no idea if it would offer advantages over next generation bomber-dropped munitions in terms of how deep it goes.

Safe bet Iran and other adversaries will simply go really goddamned deep for new facilities.