Steve said:
...
... What will Russia and China do? I think Edward was probably right in his analysis of China but I have to wonder about Russia. With Putin doing democracy and freedom "Russian style" and with that entire involvement with Ukraine (which probably goes a bit deeper than anyone knows) I wonder if Russia will try to bring it's formerly controlled country back into its fold.
China I think has enough problems to deal with .. namely Taiwan.
As I have said elsewhere, China is not 'busy' with Taiwan.
Taiwan is a tool China is using to put some pressure on the US
position and
face in Asia. America is occupied in Iraq and China can flex its muscles without much fear of a US rebuke. The 'neighbours', who also value
face, see and understand. Provoking a bit of anti-Japanese sentiment, even as the two economies become more and more closely intertwined, doesn't hurt either.
China is involved in long term, continuing
negotiations with Taiwan. Taiwan and China
agree, broadly, that Taiwan is, indeed, a province of China; the issue is: when will reunification take place? Taiwan wants to wait until there is more political reform in China and until China will guarantee a semi-autonomous status for Taiwan, but Taiwan was put off by the Hong Kong experience. The current public warm welcome for a visiting (from Taiwan) Kuomintang delegation to China; the replacement of Tung Chee-hwa by Donald Tsang as Hong Kong's Chief Executive; and the introduction of the Anti-secession Law are not coincidental just by coincidence â “ that sort of thing just doesn't happen in China.
I need to re-emphasize that, in my opinion, China does not want to 'take' Kyrgyzstan but, equally it will not tolerate Kyrgyzstan being 'taken' by anyone else, including Russia and America.
Edited to correct punctuation.