Lebanon (Superthread)

[Kirkhill]

Well said Edward.

Don't pick a fight you can't win unless you want to end up face down and bleeding.  

ALL WARS ARE ULTIMATELY HEARTS AND MINDS CAMPAIGNS.  The purpose of the exercise is to convince the opposition to do what you want it to do.  If you can convince the opposition's leadership to go along with your wishes and they can convince their population to agree then there is no need for further discussion.  If, on the other hand the opposition's leadership is unconvinced and acting against your interests then you need to go over their heads and convince the population that it isn't a great idea to follow the leader.  There are two tools available - bribery and brutality.

If they won't accept bribery they need to expect brutality.

In the West I like to think that we would wait for the first punch to be thrown before retaliating.  But if the opposition does decide to throw the first punch then they had best make it count because after that then all bets are off.  

Hezbollah made the mistake of poking Israel in the chest one too many times when it captured those two soldiers.  It wasn't enough to hurt Israel  but it was enough to justify a response.  

 

[couchcommander]

Yeah, as we speak the US is resupplying Israel with missiles, fighter aircraft, ammunition, etc.

Right, Israel is a state.

The equivalent would be Syria/Iran supplying the Lebanese army with missiles and munitions.

Rather, they are arming a non-state entity, namely a para-military/terrorist organization that has the destruction of Israel as it's stated aim, just finished dragging a nation through a war against it's will, and that is actively eroding the control of a democratically elected government (no, not Israel, Lebanon).

 

[tomahawk6]

UNIFIL posted on their web site Israeli troop movements in real time. They didnt feel the need to post Hizbollah movements. So with this track record how can anyone expect UNIFIL to be impartial ?

 

[Kirkhill]

Could somebody help me out here?

Amidst all this dithering by Annan and Chirac, DEBKAfile reports that convoys with Iranian-supplied missiles are passing through Syria on their way to Hezbollah and that there is a recently installed Iranian Revolutionary Guard command center on the Syrian side of the Iranian border which is being used to direct Hezbollah even more closely than before the war.  Syria has issued unanswered threats that it would consider the stationing of international forces on its border with Lebanon, in order to stop the flow of weapons and other support to Hezbollah, to be an “act of aggression.”   For its part, Iran has declared that it will defend Syria’s security and continues to defy the Security Council’s demand that it suspend its nuclear uranium enrichment program.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=24084

I am prepared to accept that Iran is supplying new missiles to Hezbollah.
I am prepared to accept that they are passing through Syria on their way.

What I am bothered about is how they get from Iran to Syria. 

The article talks about the "Syrian side of the Iranian border" suggesting that Iran and Syria are contiguous at some point.

I am prepared to accept that the maps (here's an example http://www.atlapedia.com/online/maps/political/Saudi_etc.htm ) that I have seen may be out of date but my understanding was that the only way to get from Iran to Syria overland is:

a) through Kurdish held Turkey (not to mention Kurdish Syria) or
b) through Iraq.

Where exactly do Syria and Iran join?
Alternatively, who is letting these missiles through? Turkey? The Kurds? Iraq? Or the US?

Having said that, it is entirely feasible, I suppose that they might be flown from Tehran to Damascus.

 

[tomahawk6]

The reports I have seen in the media is that there is a command center in the Iranian embassy in Beruit that controls hizbollah militia. The excerpt I believe is a typo. The command center is just across the Syrian-Lebanon border. The concept is to base missile in Syria,run them across the border to fire and the launcher scoots back across the border.

The Turks informed Iranian aircraft that they would be landing for inspection and they returned to Iran rather than be inspected. My guess is that there are enough missiles in Syria that they can supply Hizbollah until they can get more weapons in from Iran. The Iranians will have to resupply Hizbollah by sea through a Syrian port.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act:

Certainly a potential threat to consider going forward: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/06/02/syrianbase.shtml

Russia to Establish Naval Base in Syrian Port of Tartus — Paper
Created: 02.06.2006 11:55 MSK (GMT +3), Updated: 18:53 MSK


MosNews


Russia has begun works in the Syrian port of Tartus seeking to built a full-scale naval base for the ships of the Black Sea Fleet, currently based in Ukraine’s Sevastopol, the Kommersant newspaper reported on Friday, quoting unnamed sources in the Defense Ministry and the General Staff of the Russian Navy.

The paper noted that this is the first time Russia is setting up a military base outside the CIS since the fall of the USSR and that the base will allow Moscow to pursue its own line in the Middle East.

Russia has also started work in the port of Latakia in Syria, the newspaper said. The base in Tartus and the new mooring in Latakia will be able to serve the needs of the Black Sea Fleet and possibly the North Sea Fleet as well.

The newspaper quoted its sources as saying that in the nearest future the Russian Navy will form a squadron headed by the Moskva missile cruiser which will permanently operate in the Mediterranean, taking part in joint exercises with NATO forces.

The sources said that the new base would allow Russia to strengthen its positions in the Middle East and also enhance Syrian security.

However, the Russian Defense Ministry has refuted the report. Russia is not building a military base in Syria, spokesman for the Ministry Colonel Vyacheslav Sedov was quoted by RIA Novosti as saying.

 

[Kirkhill]

http://www.cbc.ca/national/

Click on "Watch the National Online"

Go to 18:30 of the broadcast to get Terry Milewski's report.  Generally standard fare about how abysmally the Israelis performed.  The interesting bit starts at about 19:30 with the highlight at 19:50.  HvK came to mind.

 

[Kirkhill]

I don't usually post blog rumours but this sounds so interesting.  Can anybody confirm any of the details?

Under the nose of the Lebanese Army and the non existent UNIFIL2

Hizbullah has dismantled 14 posts on the Israel-Lebanon border near the Shaba Farms, Lebanese security sources reported on Monday.

Eyewitnesses said that bulldozers were used to flatten the bases in the Arkov area and block access to tunnels and bunkers.

A French news agency reported that the group evacuated the posts using trucks to carry artillery shells, missiles, other weapons and military equipment northward, while other Hizbullah vehicles laden with generators and furniture made their way out of the region.

According to the Lebanese newspaper A-Sapir, the Lebanese army had deployed troops along the border with Syria and soldiers had blocked routes used by weapons smugglers.

Meanwhile, the Lebanese government demanded from Palestinians in refugee camps in the Litani area to disarm in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, senior Fatah operative in Lebanon, Monir Al-Makdah, said on Monday morning.

Reportedly, Lebanese Prime Minister Faud Saniora made the request to Fatah representative in Lebanon Abbas Za’aki.

Al-Makdah rejected the demand in an interview with Jordanian newspaper Al-Dostur, saying that the Security Council resolution was illegal since it did not include the right of return for Palestinian refugees.

Comment by Hamid-Liban — August 28, 2006 @ 12:31 pm

http://www.bigpharaoh.com/2006/08/28/now-tongues-are-loose/

Olmert may end up losing - but it seems it might be coming more likely that Nasrallah, Assad and Ahmadinejad didn't win either.  The worst thing that could happen to Nasrallah is to lose leverage with the Lebanese government while the worst outcome for Assad and Ahmadinejad could be the loss of their plausibly deniable option.  This one still seems to be shaking down.

 

[geo]

well, watched the news last night, they were showing IDF entering & doing demolition of a Hisbolah bunker..... that was almost right under a UNIFIL OP on the DMZ between Lebanon & Israel ... and people still wonder why the IDF would have fired / bombed right next to / onto a UNIFIL OP and kill UN observers .......

 

[Kirkhill]

http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/47186/post-434821.html#msg434821

geo - that clip is on-line here.  Perhaps someone better skilled than me can download the article and save it for posterity.

 

[Blakey]

Israeli tanks kill 18 Palestinians, truce ended

The Hamas chief declared Wednesday that a truce with Israel is over after an Israeli tank attack that killed 18 Palestinians earlier that day.

More here


So much for the UN...(?)

 

[Ex-Dragoon]

The UN did not send troops into GAZA, you are thinking Lebanon....

 

[geo]

easy to confuse Hamas with Hezbolah.............
IDF last week fired onto Hamas guerillas... and suddenly, Palestinian women heard the call for help and made themselves shields between the IDF and the gunmen.
This week, it's IDF guns firing onto a Hamas rocket launching site......... near Palestinian kids.  Go figure....

Makes me sick!

Grrr... frustrating!

 

[Blakey]

The UN did not send troops into GAZA, you are thinking Lebanon....

oops, my bad

 

[derael]

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/775387.html

Commanders of the French contingent of the United Nations force in Lebanon have warned that they might have to open fire if Israel Air Force warplanes continue their overflights in Lebanon, Defense Minister Amir Peretz told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday.

I orginally read about this in the Edmonton Journal. Apparently French forces in Lebanon (whom appear to be FFL) were about 2 seconds from firing on a pair of Israeli fighters who were diving in on their position and making passes.

It seems like a dangerous situation to say the least.

 

[a_majoor]

The power struggle in Lebanon continues: How are Syria and Iran involved these days?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6169606.stm

Lebanese Christian leader killed

Pierre Gemayel, a leading anti-Syrian Lebanese minister and Maronite Christian leader, has been killed in the capital, Beirut.
Mr Gemayel, 34, was shot in his car in a Christian suburb and rushed to hospital, where he died.

His death comes amid a political crisis in Lebanon, following the resignation of six pro-Syrian cabinet members.

Mr Gemayel was a member of the Phalange Party and the son of former President Amin Gemayel.

At least three gunmen rammed Mr Gemayel's car with their vehicle before spraying it with gunfire and shooting Mr Gemayel at point blank range, Reuters news agency quoted witnesses as saying.

Television pictures from the scene of the killing in the Jdaideh neighbourhood showed Mr Gemayel's car peppered with bullet holes and with its bonnet crumpled.

Throngs of angry supporters of Mr Gemayel gathered at the hospital where he was taken, some crying and screaming.


LEBANESE ASSASSINATIONS
Feb 2005: Former PM Rafik Hariri
June 2005: Anti-Syria journalist Samir Kassir
June 2005: Ex-Communist leader George Hawi
Dec 2005: Anti-Syria MP Gebran Tueni
Nov 2006: Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel  

Speaking to the crowds there, Amin Gemayel appealed for calm.
"I call on all those who appreciate Pierre's martyrdom to preserve his cause and for all of us to remain at the service of Lebanon. We don't want reactions and revenge," he said.

As news of the killing spread, streets emptied and the Lebanese army deployed at key areas across and just outside the capital, the BBC's Beirut correspondent Kim Ghattas reported.

Angry crowds gathered at a main square near the city centre, where some people burnt tyres in protest at killing.

Our correspondent says there is a lot of tension there, as people wait to see what happens next and what the Lebanese government will do.


Killing condemned

The news of the killing was confirmed by Saad Hariri, the son of the country's former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was himself killed last year in a huge blast.


A recent UN report implicated Syria in Rafik Hariri's death, although Syria has denied involvement.
Saad Hariri, who is also the leader of the anti-Syrian coalition which has a majority in parliament, has now accused Damascus of being behind the killing of Mr Gemayel as well.

"The Cedar Revolution is under attack...Today one of our main believers in a free democratic Lebanon has been killed. We believe the hand of Syria is all over [this]," he told CNN.

Syria denounced Mr Gemayel's assassination, calling it a "despicable crime".


We condemn this murder utterly
Tony Blair
UK Prime Minister


"Syria strongly condemns the killing," the official Syrian news agency, Sana, said.

Western condemnation of Mr Gemayel's murder was also swift.

"We are shocked by this assassination," US Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns told reporters.

"We view it as an act of terrorism and we also view it as an act of intimidation," he added.

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair said the killing was "completely without any justification at all".

"We condemn this murder utterly... We need to do everything we can, particularly at this moment, to protect democracy in Lebanon and the premiership of Prime Minister [Fuoad] Siniora.," he said.

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said "those responsible for this cowardly assassination... must be found and judged."

Six pro-Syrian ministers quit their jobs last week in an attempt to bring down the government after their calls for a greater role were rejected.

Despite the resignations, the depleted cabinet approved draft UN plans for setting up an international tribunal to try suspects in Mr Hariri's killing.

 

[tomahawk6]

A coup attempt by Hizbollah could see a war breakout. Israel will not allow Hizbollah to take control of Lebanon. Iran and Syria are behind Hizbollah 100% this in effect is the first stage in their attempt to overthrow the governments of moderate nation's in the region.The UNSC could use UNIFIl to disarm Hizbollah. Israel could invade forcing Hizbollah to fight on two fronts. The US could deploy forces in support of UNIFIL. The Syrian Army could cross into Lebanon to support Hizbollah. It could be a real mess.

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2006/11/coup_detat_unde.php

By Omar Raad,
Ya Libnan Volunteer
Beirut - The assassination of Pierre Gemayel means that two more ministers need to resign or be killed in order to bring down the anti-Syrian government.

As if one assassination were not enough bloodshed for one day, the murderers proceeded to target another anti-Syrian Member of Parliament - Michel Pharaon.

Syria's allies in Lebanon are planning to take the streets on Thursday to demand the government resign. The pro-Syrian allies in Lebanon include Hezbollah, Michel Aoun's political party and Nabih Berri's Amal movement.

Syria behind violent overthrow?

As documented in the U.N. investigation, Syria has openly threatened Lebanese politicians who dare to defy their orders. The Syrian regime has been determined to block the international U.N. tribunal at any cost, including the cost of stability in Lebanon.

Just hours after killing Gemayel, gunmen opened fire on the office of a minister of state.

"The office of the state minister for parliamentary affairs, Michel Pharaon, in the Ashrafieh neighborhood was the target of gunshots today from gunmen in a white Suzuki car," according to a statement by the minister's office.

"The security forces cordoned off the area and is carrying out the necessary measures to identify the culprits," who fled the scene, it said.

Pharaon is a Greek-Catholic Christian MP from the bloc of anti-Syrian parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri.

Brother, niece and son died for the cause

The father of Pierre Gemayel a Lebanese anti-Syrian minister who was killed today urged supporters to remain calm and avoid retribution. "I have one wish, that tonight be a night of prayer to contemplate the meaning of this martyrdom and how to protect this country," Former President Amin Gemayel told reporters outside a hospital where the body of his son Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was taken.

"I call on all those who appreciate Pierre's martyrdom to preserve his cause and for all of us to remain at the service of Lebanon. We don't want reactions and revenge," he said.

"My brother died for the cause, my niece died for the cause and now my son died for the cause."

In a speech by the Prime Minister, Fouad Siniora, he called for all Lebanese to come together "to defend the security and their country."

He continued, adding: "To your beloved parents, to your wife and children, and to all your friends and to all the freedom loving people, I promise you your blood will not be shed in vain.

On behalf of the government, my brother, my friend and colleague, the minister the young Pierre Gemayel, give my regards to Rafik (Hariri) and all his companions. Say hello to Samir (Kassir), George (Hawi), Gebran (Tueni), and all those freedom loving people, and tell them they did not die in vain, but they died for the homeland, and you have joined them today.

Walid Jumblatt visited the hospital and made a short statement amid anti-Aoun and anti-Nasrallah chants. He affirmed that the international tribunal is coming and warned against civil strife. "They want to create civil strife... We will triumph. We will not let them drag us to sedition," he said.

"As we were on that great day (March 14) with Pierre in the lead, peaceful and democratic for Lebanon, we will remain," he added.

 

[Bert]

And a mess it seems.

Heres Stratfor's take on it.

Lebanon: An Assassination and Rising Tensions
www.stratfor.com

Summary

Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was killed Nov. 21 in a Beirut neighborhood where a pro-Syrian party is known to have a large presence. As Gemayel was an outspoken critic of Hezbollah and a member of Lebanon's anti-Syrian movement, Syrian intelligence likely staged the shooting as part of an intimidation strategy to keep the lid on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Hezbollah will use the momentum generated by the Gemayel assassination to further its plans to plunge Lebanon into a constitutional crisis.

Analysis

Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was shot dead Nov. 21 by gunmen as his convoy passed through Beirut's Greek Orthodox Sin el-Fil neighborhood, where the pro-Damascus Syrian Social Nationalist Party has a large presence. Gemayel was staunchly opposed to Hezbollah and was a leader of the March 14 alliance, the anti-Syrian coalition that holds a majority in the Lebanese parliament and has been outspoken about Syria's alleged involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Gemayel is the first anti-Syrian politician to be killed since Gebran Tueni, who was assassinated in a car bombing in December 2005.

There is little doubt that Syria's widespread intelligence and security apparatus organized Gemayel's assassination. The Lebanese government was poised to approve legislation for the formation of an international tribunal to try suspects in the al-Hariri assassination, which has made the Syrian regime and its allies in Lebanon nervous, to say the least. To thwart the tribunal formation and ensure that the government remains in gridlock, five of Lebanon's Shiite Cabinet ministers belonging to Hezbollah and the Amal Movement resigned Nov. 11. Pro-Syrian Lebanese President Emile Lahoud also has refused to sign any decree on the tribunal.

Following the summer conflict with Israel, radical Shiite Islamist group Hezbollah has seized the opportunity to fortify its political position in Lebanon by forcing an expansion of the Lebanese Cabinet that would give Shiite parliament members veto power to counter the anti-Syrian March 14 coalition. To achieve this, Hezbollah has escalated sectarian tensions in the country and organized massive demonstrations in Beirut in an effort to prove it can control the decisions of the Lebanese government with or without majority political representation.

Now that Gemayel has been eliminated from the Cabinet, only one more Cabinet position needs to fall in order for the government to lose its constitutionality. Gemayel's assassination is part of a strategy to bring down the Lebanese government and force new elections that could favor Hezbollah and its Shiite allies.

The United Nations' final document on the al-Hariri tribunal is still awaiting submission to the Lebanese parliament for approval. Hezbollah plans to orchestrate the resignations of Shiite parliamentary deputies and Maronite parliament members from the bloc of former Lebanese Prime Minster Gen. Michel Aoun before the vote is cast. Shiite parliament speaker Nabih Berri also could resign to prevent the tribunal deliberations from proceeding. In Hezbollah's mind, the formation of a constitutional crisis is in full swing.

The Syrian government shares Hezbollah's confidence; it has been empowered now that Washington and Baghdad are moving toward a new strategy to contain violence in Iraq that could involve pulling Syria out of diplomatic isolation. The Syrians feel that their position is stronger now that they have officially resumed diplomatic relations with Iraq and have Iran as their protector in the region. Moreover, the Syrian government apparently believes it can afford to use its intelligence agents to carry out assassinations without facing any major threat. The summer conflict left Israel politically paralyzed, and the country does not have the stomach to deal with the tornado that would follow any attempts bring down the Syrian regime or re-engage Hezbollah's military forces. At the same time, the United States is desperately searching for an exit strategy for Iraq, and Syria's role in controlling insurgent traffic across its border will be key in bringing the security situation under control. The confidence exhibited by the Syrian regime, however, does not guarantee Damascus a place at the negotiating table. Washington is already struggling to deal with Iran's rising influence in the region and will be reluctant to forge any agreements with Iran's partners in Syria or Lebanon that would facilitate Hezbollah's political ambitions.

Though Syria will vehemently deny any role in the Gemayel killing and will join the March 14 forces in condemning the act, the fingerprints of Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime are all over this latest assassination. Massive demonstrations will take place, with Hezbollah, Amal and their allies in Aoun's Maronite Christian movement on one side and the anti-Syrian March 14 alliance on the other. As communal tensions in the country heat up, the stirrings of another Lebanese civil war will become increasingly apparent.

The Lebanese army already has deployed four brigades to greater Beirut to assume combat readiness in case Hezbollah forces attack Sunnis in West Beirut. Lebanon's Sunni bloc, led by the al-Hariri clan and their regional Arab allies, also has sent a number of fighters to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to receive military training in order to counter Hezbollah's well-equipped and well-trained military forces. In the meantime, Syria continues to send reinforcements to its allies in Lebanon. Syrian army officers who previously served in Lebanon have infiltrated the country and are leading combat units of their allies in Hezbollah, pro-Syrian groups and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Furthermore, about 2,500 Syrian troops masquerading as laborers have joined the ranks of the anti-government forces in Lebanon.

Though Hezbollah is unlikely to engage in a military confrontation at this time in order to preserve its legitimacy as a resistance movement acting in the interests of the Lebanese people, an outbreak of hostilities between Lebanon's rival factions is a real possibility.



Shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act - http://www.cb-cda.gc.ca/info/act-e.html#rid-33409

 

[geo]

Yup, we're definitely living in interesting times.

 

[warspite]

A coup attempt by Hizbollah could see a war breakout.

Does a popular uprising count as a coup...?

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2006/12/05/lebanon-protests.html

Looks like things are really starting to heat up....