Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Czech_pivo]

Exactly my point

Now I'm going to raise something that is difficult to raise but I'm going to try and raise it at arms length.

IF the NDP had an individual who was from a 'European' background as leader, in today's charged environment in both Canada and the US in terms of 'backlash' towards an increase in numbers of immigrants and temporary workers from non-traditional, historical countries, would their vote have collapsed the way it did AND would have we have seen large numbers of traditional NDP'ers vote for the 'popularist' leader, being PP?

 

[Furniture]

Now I'm going to raise something that is difficult to raise but I'm going to try and raise it at arms length.

IF the NDP had an individual who was from a 'European' background as leader, in today's charged environment in both Canada and the US in terms of 'backlash' towards an increase in numbers of immigrants and temporary workers from non-traditional, historical countries, would their vote have collapsed the way it did AND would have we have seen large numbers of traditional NDP'ers vote for the 'popularist' leader, being PP?

Let's not go down the racist rabbit hole...

The NDP collapsed because for the last several years the NDP have been nothing but LPC sock puppets. Singh failed to make his party stand out as different from the LPC, so why waste your vote on LPC Lite?

For all some LPC supporters like to pretend the NDP propping up an extremely unpopular LPC government was a smart play, it has lead to what may be the death of the party. The LPC stole the left/"woke"/progressive end of the spectrum from the NDP under Trudeau's leadership. Unless Carney brings the LPC back to the centre, there is no real place for the NDP anymore.

 

[MilEME09]

Let's not go down the racist rabbit hole...

The NDP collapsed because for the last several years the NDP have been nothing but LPC sock puppets. Singh failed to make his party stand out as different from the LPC, so why waste your vote on LPC Lite?

Because same great taste, half the party?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Let's not go down the racist rabbit hole...

The NDP collapsed because for the last several years the NDP have been nothing but LPC sock puppets. Singh failed to make his party stand out as different from the LPC, so why waste your vote on LPC Lite?

For all some LPC supporters like to pretend the NDP propping up an extremely unpopular LPC government was a smart play, it has lead to what may be the death of the party. The LPC stole the left/"woke"/progressive end of the spectrum from the NDP under Trudeau's leadership. Unless Carney brings the LPC back to the centre, there is no real place for the NDP anymore.

I understand and I agree with not going down that path - but sadly I do believe that it played a factor in what happened to a significant part of their traditional vote.
For the record, if I was a traditional NDP supporter it would not have affected my vote in any manner.
The reality is though, that this sort of thinking occurred for certain. Whether we choose to ignore it and sweep it under the rug or confront it head up and deal with it accordingly is another matter.

 

[Furniture]

I understand and I agree with not going down that path - but sadly I do believe that it played a factor in what happened to a significant part of their traditional vote.
For the record, if I was a traditional NDP supporter it would not have affected my vote in any matter.
The reality is though, that this sort of thinking occurred for certain. Whether we choose to ignore it and sweep it under the rug or confront it head up and deal with it accordingly is another matter.

What proof do we have that was a factor?

Suggesting it comes across as classist at best.

 

[Czech_pivo]

What proof do we have that was a factor?

Suggesting it comes across as classist at best.

How would one obtain this proof?

Its anecdotal, its the 'smell' taste, its my gut.

Saying 'don't go down this path' suggests that something like that can never occur, while I'm saying that yes, yes it can occur.

 

[Brad Sallows]

... and if Carney truly means this bit from his election-night speech ...

Dare to dream ...

Deja moo. "We'll be a government for all Canadians/British Columbians/etc" has been belched out by many newly-elected governments. Each time, the actual result is partisanship all the way down.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The reasons why the Bloc took losses and the NDP collapsed is what the CPC needs to be introspective about. While they did gain from some of that collapse, the LPC gained more.

BQ and NDP voters are mostly left of the LPC, and would have to find ways to convince themselves to pass through the LPC to arrive at the CPC. Unlikely. What the CPC needs to be introspective about is why they aren't trimming the right flank of the LPC at the same time as the left wing is collapsing into the left flank of the LPC. Maybe all that's needed is to eliminate the kid's table behaviour. Do people like Poilievre understand that they come across as juvenile smart-asses when they use cutesy-insulting terms and rhetoric?

 

[KevinB]

BQ and NDP voters are mostly left of the LPC, and would have to find ways to convince themselves to pass through the LPC to arrive at the CPC. Unlikely. What the CPC needs to be introspective about is why they aren't trimming the right flank of the LPC at the same time as the left wing is collapsing into the left flank of the LPC. Maybe all that's needed is to eliminate the kid's table behaviour. Do people like Poilievre understand that they come across as juvenile smart-asses when they use cutesy-insulting terms and rhetoric?

I don't think you can categorize the BQ with any sort of brush. I know some fairly rabid BQ people who are further to the right than myself - but they view the party as a Quebecois voice against a Canada that marginalizes them (I have to bite my tongue about that thought process - but it is their personal view points)

 

[Halifax Tar]

So anyways, where's my pay raise and thousands of dollars for my property the LPC ruined.

Here here!

Has there been a break down in generational voting yet ? I keep hearing the youth votes CPC but is like to see the data!

 

[QV]

Here here!

Has there been a break down in generational voting yet ? I keep hearing the youth votes CPC but is like to see the data!

A local high school nearby voted 2:1 in favor of the CPC in their mock election. Gives me hope for the future....

 

[Furniture]

How would one obtain this proof?

Its anecdotal, its the 'smell' taste, its my gut.

Saying 'don't go down this path' suggests that something like that can never occur, while I'm saying that yes, yes it can occur.

I'm not suggesting a few people don't feel that way, I just think it's a tiny fraction of people overall, and an even tinier fraction of the NDP base.

My "Lets not go down the racist rabbit hole" is entirely about not trying to pin the abject failure of the NDP on "racist" Canadian voters. The NDP failed. That the leader isn't an old white guy is not a factor in that failure.

Let's not import American race politics into Canadian politics. We already have enough divides along linguistic, cultural, and geographic lines, we don't need more.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I don't think you can categorize the BQ with any sort of brush. I know some fairly rabid BQ people who are further to the right than myself ...

With some showing a bit more of a .... nationalist/nativist bent than you & others at most of the right end of the spectrum, I suspect.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

It would open the door for Cheryl Gallant Caroline Mulroney to be leader!

FTFY

 

[mariomike]

I keep hearing the youth votes CPC but is like to see the data!

39% for 18 to 34 men. 28% for 18 to 34 women .

 

[Navy_Pete]

The next government is shaping up to be much like the last one. If the LPC enters into another agreement with the NDP, we'd be fools not to anticipate a steady bleed of potential "investment" dollars off into social welfare consumption. Buying political support from the NDP or BQ issue-by-issue would amount to much the same thing.

A supply-and-confidence agreement with the CPC is absurdly unlikely, but would send a heckuva "centrist and serious" message to all kinds of communities here and abroad.

Especially under PP; he seems oppositional by nature and his default status seems to be 'whatver the LPC is doing is wrong', even if they did something from his platform (like cut the carbon tax).

They did that last time, and meant they had no real influence, where the NDP got things in their platform done with a fraction of the actual seats.

I think a purge of PP would perhaps allow a reset on the tone in Parliament among the main parties if they put forward a more centrist, reasonable candidate that didn't encourage 'F&ck Carney' flags, but doesn't seem likely. I think the obvious thing to do when something isn't working for years is to just double down.

 

[dapaterson]

FTFY

Current CPC leadership are decidedly not on good terms with the Ontario PC party.

OTOH, if she wins and serves two terms as PM, does Kim Campbell have a son... ?

 

[Remius]

BQ and NDP voters are mostly left of the LPC, and would have to find ways to convince themselves to pass through the LPC to arrive at the CPC.

You misunderstand. My point is that they went to the LPC in part because of the CPC. They scared them enough to self immolate.

Unlikely. What the CPC needs to be introspective about is why they aren't trimming the right flank of the LPC at the same time as the left wing is collapsing into the left flank of the LPC.

We’ve been saying that for some time. Agreed.

Maybe all that's needed is to eliminate the kid's table behaviour. Do people like Poilievre understand that they come across as juvenile smart-asses when they use cutesy-insulting terms and rhetoric?

Agreed.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I'm not suggesting a few people don't feel that way, I just think it's a tiny fraction of people overall, and an even tinier fraction of the NDP base.

My "Lets not go down the racist rabbit hole" is entirely about not trying to pin the abject failure of the NDP on "racist" Canadian voters. The NDP failed. That the leader isn't an old white guy is not a factor in that failure.

Let's not import American race politics into Canadian politics. We already have enough divides along linguistic, cultural, and geographic lines, we don't need more.

I hope that you’re right about the numbers being small, with my ear to the wall and listening quietly, I have the belief that the numbers are larger than small.
The NDP did run a crappy campaign overall, 100% spot on.

 

[The Bread Guy]

For the sake of farting around, asked Chat GPT for options (and 1-10 ratings for chances of success) for Carney & Poilievre based on publicly available info - both attached as Briefing Notes in PDF. This recommendation for the incoming PM ....

RECOMMENDATION​

• Initiate formal discussions with the Bloc Québécois for a supply and confidence agreement.
• Quietly explore floor-crossing possibilities from NDP or Independents.
• Refrain from formal coalition or national unity overtures unless conditions drastically change.

... and this for PP:

RECOMMENDATION​

• Publicly reject any unity government overtures.
• Frame Bloc-Liberal deal as a betrayal of federalism and central Canada.
• Prepare for an early election opportunity by sharpening economic and cost-of-living messages.
• Monitor internal Liberal dissent and Bloc overreach for opportunities to trigger instability.