All Things AB Separatism (split fm Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???)

[QV]

Ah yes - we want out but we want all the benefits. Entitled, spoiled children that not only want to take their ball and leave, they also want the some lunch money from the other kids.

That's not at all what I see proposed. Complete succession. New currency, new passport/citizenship. Fair share of assets and liabilities. I have not seen any proposal where Alberta would want anything it isn't owed or has earned (such as some equalization payments scheme for example).

Cost of government could be less per capita; for example reduction in military spending because they have powerful, peaceful, neighbors (sound familiar? - ha), seriously though no Navy or Coast Guard.

 

[Remius]

That's not at all what I see proposed. Complete succession. New currency, new passport/citizenship.

New passport and citizenship is definitely possible. New currency would be very difficult. They need to set up a central bank and then a currency conversion/switch. A lot of Albertans won’t be too keen on giving up their Canadian dollars for Alberta pesos. They could still carry on using Canadian dollars or even adopt the USD but they’d have no say at all on monetary policy. They’d be worse off than they are now if they did that.

Fair share of assets and liabilities. I have not seen any proposal where Alberta would want anything it isn't owed or has earned (such as some equalization payments scheme for example).

Reasonable depending on what they think is fair. Alberta tends to overestimate its economic worth at times though.

Cost of government could be less per capita; for example reduction in military spending because they have powerful, peaceful, neighbors (sound familiar? - ha), seriously though no Navy or Coast Guard.

Hmn…not exactly, Alberta would have to assume a lot of the responsibilities the feds currently have. I mentioned a central bank for one. They’d need their own PS and a variety of new departments and agencies etc. All that with a smaller tax base than if shared on a per capita basis with the rest of Canada.

That doesn’t even get into the risks and pitfalls. Less trade (at least at the start), brain drain, economic retreat from the province etc etc.

 

[QV]

The speculation on this is interesting.

On the brain drain, I'm not so sure. Alberta is already seeing record migration from other parts of Canada. Also, an Alberta free of the economic constraints of the LPC Ottawa bubble could see a massive jump in investment, a reversal of the Trudeau years where many $Bs were chased out of the province and country. O&G isn't going away, and it isn't the only industry in Alberta either.

Alberta already has it's provincial public service. Assuming federal responsibilities would see growth on the existing structure but could be done prudently. There are a lot of federal departments that don't need to exist in their current configuration or at all. The tax base would be more than sufficient when factoring in no loss to the equalization scheme. Things like no bilingualism, no navy, no equalization, a smaller footprint in every dimension, de-regulation... all make the overhead come down significantly. And Canada would protect them so they could be lethargic on defence spending

 

[brihard]

Mods, might be time to split to an Alberta Separatism thread in Canadian politics? I suspect we’re going to continue to see a fair bit of material on the subject and a lot of it is pretty tangential to the federal government megathread. It probably deserves its own topic.

 

[Remius]

The speculation on this is interesting.

On the brain drain, I'm not so sure. Alberta is already seeing record migration from other parts of Canada. Also, an Alberta free of the economic constraints of the LPC Ottawa bubble could see a massive jump in investment, a reversal of the Trudeau years where many $Bs were chased out of the province and country. O&G isn't going away, and it isn't the only industry in Alberta either.

Stability is the issue though. When Quebec was at the height if its seperation bluster businesses relocated out of Montrealin real numbers that it had a real impact on the economy. Businesses left the UK for more stable parts of Europe. Alberta isn’t so special that it will avoid that. The Ottawa constraint bubble wasn’t a factor in business leaving QC. O&G isn’t the only industry. But it’s the one that matters there. Trade deals become harder as well as Alberta can only negotiate via its own economy rather than a pan Canadian one.

Alberta already has it's provincial public service. Assuming federal responsibilities would see growth on the existing structure but could be done prudently.

While some things could be transferred or merged not everything can. There are somethings the provinces just don’t do. The PS was balloon from where it is now provincially. Border, customs, prisons, policing, central bank, tax collection, embassies, trade, federal regulatory bodies, etc etc and the training grounds for all of that.

There are a lot of federal departments that don't need to exist in their current configuration or at all.

Yes. And a lot they would need to build from the ground up.

The tax base would be more than sufficient when factoring in no loss to the equalization scheme.

The tax base is less that Toronto’s tax base. Equalization doesn’t work that way. And your provincial income tax becomes your new federal income tax and it will go up to pay for a lot of new things that Alberta will need. And it is fairly easy to predict that a chunk of people who aren’t big on being Albertans first would leave.

Things like no bilingualism, no navy, no equalization, a smaller footprint in every dimension, de-regulation... all make the overhead come down significantly. And Canada would protect them so they could be lethargic on defence spending

Except they only pay for a fraction of those things. They would then be responsible for all of the things.

Defense, border, tax revenue collection, currency and banking, criminal law, foreign affairs and international trade, EI, indegenous relations (assuming this goes the way Alberta hopes but I doubt it), postal service, telecommunications, competition and copyright.

It won’t be cheap. And I suspect buyers remorse would set in pretty fast as it has in most places that successfully and peacefully seceded.

 

[suffolkowner]

short term i dont see why Alberta couldnt survive on its own, depending on the indulgence of the US. It seems somewhat fantastical that this conversation is happening with WCS at $48 though

 

[The Bread Guy]

Since the AB separatist discussion enough is robust and detailed enough to rate its own thread, it'll be coming here.

Please stand by ....

Army.ca Staff

 

[lenaitch]

Stability is the issue though. When Quebec was at the height if its seperation bluster businesses relocated out of Montrealin real numbers that it had a real impact on the economy. Businesses left the UK for more stable parts of Europe. Alberta isn’t so special that it will avoid that. The Ottawa constraint bubble wasn’t a factor in business leaving QC. O&G isn’t the only industry. But it’s the one that matters there. Trade deals become harder as well as Alberta can only negotiate via its own economy rather than a pan Canadian one.

While some things could be transferred or merged not everything can. There are somethings the provinces just don’t do. The PS was balloon from where it is now provincially. Border, customs, prisons, policing, central bank, tax collection, embassies, trade, federal regulatory bodies, etc etc and the training grounds for all of that.

Yes. And a lot they would need to build from the ground up.

The tax base is less that Toronto’s tax base. Equalization doesn’t work that way. And your provincial income tax becomes your new federal income tax and it will go up to pay for a lot of new things that Alberta will need. And it is fairly easy to predict that a chunk of people who aren’t big on being Albertans first would leave.

Except they only pay for a fraction of those things. They would then be responsible for all of the things.

Defense, border, tax revenue collection, currency and banking, criminal law, foreign affairs and international trade, EI, indegenous relations (assuming this goes the way Alberta hopes but I doubt it), postal service, telecommunications, competition and copyright.

It won’t be cheap. And I suspect buyers remorse would set in pretty fast as it has in most places that successfully and peacefully seceded.

Agree. There are a lot of regulatory functions that largely operate in the background; such as food and drug safety, aviation, EI, telecommunications and on and on. Although the administration of justice is already at the provincial level, they would have re-create the appeals system right up to a supreme court. Of course, they could just accept somebody else's and become a vassal state.

As for Alberta's share of the national GDP:

 

[Remius]

I will say this. At least the separatists have a clear enough question.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Some rough numbers:

BLUF: APP is selling an absolute fairy tale, the numbers don't work. Either they know that- or they don't.

From the Provinces 2025-2026 Estimate:
$74B in total Revenenue - ~28.8B from Provincial Tax, 17B Resource Royalty*, 13.3B from Federal Government**
*Based on WTI at 68, currently at 63
** Disappears if own country


Against that, the province is budgeting 79B in expenses- a $5B deficit.


Spot Check- 5B dollar deficit, less 13.3B in forgone transfers = 18.3B dollar deficit.


BUT- that's not taking into account Federal income tax. According to this - 28.3B in 2023, should be higher now. Reallocate that money to RoA coffers, you wipe out the deficit, with 10B to spare. Huzzah!

BUTBUT- people feel entitled to their entitlements. CCB shows $3.8B from 2023-2024 (also growing). National estimates put the 2023 OAS cost at 77.8B. Records show December 2023 Alberta had 645k of 7.1M total claimants, ~9%. Rough numbers puts that at $7B. That's 10.8B in a non-exhaustive list of transfers to Albertan individuals not captured in the Provincial budget.

Oops. There goes the spare cash, we're back in a deficit position by .8B, and haven't looked after any of those pesky sovereign responsibilities formally under Canada's jurisdiction- Armed Forces etc. Not to mention EI and the like.

BUTBUTBUT- I'm missing something... Oh yes.

"....an independent Alberta with no regulations from Ottawa or eastern Canadian interests, lower provincial taxes plus no federal taxes."

Sooo.... who needs that 28.3B in formerly Canadian income tax. Who needs the full 28.8 Billion in Provincial income tax. So lets take 30-40B of a RoA budget that's already in a deficit position without an Army, Airforce, EI, or any of the other Federal departments, agencies, and services Alberta is currently covered by. That's completely sustainable because we're going to double oil output within 5 years (trust me, it'll work). Assuming doubling output doubles royalties, take 17B, carry the one... shit. Still in a deficit position by 20+ Billion dollars.


Fucking snakeoil. The gap can't be bridged without cuts to insane degree. These people need to be honest to Albertans about what they want them to vote for.

 

[KevinB]

Some rough numbers:

BLUF: APP is selling an absolute fairy tale, the numbers don't work. Either they know that- or they don't.

From the Provinces 2025-2026 Estimate:
$74B in total Revenenue - ~28.8B from Provincial Tax, 17B Resource Royalty*, 13.3B from Federal Government**
*Based on WTI at 68, currently at 63
** Disappears if own country

You are being as deluded as the rabid separatists, as you are ignoring the accounting for monies in one place and only looking at it on the side that benefits your argument.

The 13.3B is a lot less than what the Fed’s take out of Alberta.


Alberta is a Have Province - it constantly loses to the Have Not Provinces.

One cannot argue that. One can argue pretty much everything else as to what Alberta would look like, and what Alberta would need to do as an Independent province/Nation.

 

[IKnowNothing]

You are being as deluded as the rabid separatists, as you are ignoring the accounting for monies in one place and only looking at it on the side that benefits your argument.

The 13.3B is a lot less than what the Fed’s take out of Alberta.


Alberta is a Have Province - it constantly loses to the Have Not Provinces.

One cannot argue that. One can argue pretty much everything else as to what Alberta would look like, and what Alberta would need to do as an Independent province/Nation.

Keep reading.

There is no doubt a path to a viable, independent, sovereign Alberta. It might even come out a little ahead on the margin. BUT- said state is not viable if it forgoes collecting the currently Canadian Federal Income tax for itself and further lowers provincial taxes- unless it cuts spending and individual entitlements to the bone, or follows Canada into debt purgatory.

Between individual and provincial transfers Albertan's are actually a whole lot closer to breaking even than they they want to admit, especially when you account for their share of national overhead.

But there are also provinces that get a much better deal, that take out more than they put in.

Both are true. How do you square that circle, that the funders of the country are actually damn near breaking even while others are a drag?

Debt. Comparing province's on net in/out and extrapolating that to an "unburdened" Alberta isn't a zero sum game because the Federal government is borrowing to subsidize the net takers

 

[Brad Sallows]

Surely no entity with a population of about 5 million or less could possibly make it as an independent nation.

Cost of government - absolute or per capita - would necessarily increase, but some functions - fisheries and oceans, defence, diplomatic representation - could certainly be scaled down. We already know that AB's contributions to federal Canadian revenues are disproportionately high. How those two facts should translate to an impoverished independent AB struggling to provide all the trappings of a federal government is a mystery, though.

The major weaknesses of an independent AB are lack of a seaport and coming to a political resolution that results in one citizenship status and two levels of government (federal and municipal).

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Back around 2016, when the Liberals and Greens were cranking the anti-Oil & Gas Rhetoric to 11 and began to systematically strangle every pipeline project into oblivion, I wrote letters to my MP and the PMO warning that this would eventually convert some of the most dedicated Canadians (Albertans) into separatists.

Here we are.

Hopefully, sane leadership in Ottawa this time can counter the separatist rhetoric, but I am not convinced cooler heads will eventually prevail in a toxic social media environment.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Surely no entity with a population of about 5 million or less could possibly make it as an independent nation.

Cost of government - absolute or per capita - would necessarily increase, but some functions - fisheries and oceans, defence, diplomatic representation - could certainly be scaled down. We already know that AB's contributions to federal Canadian revenues are disproportionately high. How those two facts should translate to an impoverished independent AB struggling to provide all the trappings of a federal government is a mystery, though.

They don't- unless you add the third fact of doing so while also promising to reduce net taxation by upwards of 50% vice the status quo.

 

[Brad Sallows]

They don't- unless you add the third fact of doing so while also promising to reduce net taxation by upwards of 50% vice the status quo.

Unlikely assumptions don't belong in any assessment.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... The major weaknesses of an independent AB are lack of a seaport and coming to a political resolution that results in one citizenship status and two levels of government (federal and municipal).

The seaport is hard to fix, but the UK offers a model of fed-muni-without-province governance ....

https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/local-government-and-local-democracy-in-england/

Another tile to the larger info-mosaic: survey says almost as many Albertans as Quebecers polled consider themselves "part of the Canadian Nation" ....

Quebecers think they’re part of the Canadian nation – ACS Metropolis

acs-metropolis.ca

Deets on how the polling was done:

Even with smaller sample groups per province, and those margins of error, pretty big spread between yes and no all across the board.

More on the group who commissioned the Leger survey

Association for Canadian Studies - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[IKnowNothing]

Unlikely assumptions don't belong in any assessment.

Agreed completely- hence my anger at the salesman pitching exactly that to get votes dishonestly.

MSN

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Agreed completely- hence my anger at the salesman pitching exactly that to get votes dishonestly.

MSN

You think any separatist, anywhere, is going to be honest about the challenges/costs of separation?

 

[IKnowNothing]

You think any separatist, anywhere, is going to be honest about the challenges/costs of separation?

Completely? No. But if they want to succeed you'd expect them to at least try an keep the colour close to the lines as to not expose themselves to obvious hole punching/ momentum deflating criticisms.

I think it's a given that they'll get the signatures. But I think that similar to Smith's APP push they'll run out of steam well before the finish line when the number geeks start said hole poking in earnest, and the fence sitters see the financial gaps.