Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[ArmyRick]

I think a few people are NOT getting it. I say this as a guy who is really warming up to PM MC. Especially in a few months when he backstabs the old Trudeau acolytes and throws them in the trash once and for all.

PM MC is starting to test his base. It is center and right leaning that are going to tolerate much more of what he is trying to do. Trudeau built the last decade LPC around a hard left base and then Carney scooped up some of the NDP base (with Trump's help). The problem is, watch the news. Things are not going well. PSAC is not happy (I personally want to see PSAC get a thrashing), and you are going to see more and more chip away.
PM MC will NOT get the 10 year grace period Trudeau did. There will not be an "emergency" the LPC can conjure up next time.

This business with all his conflicts of interest (in his assets) and what will imply that he needs to recuse himself on so many decisions, its gonna be a bad look. And with Pierre most likely returning to the house in the fall, its going to be some very tough questions to answer (in Question-Not-Answer period).

Another problem that people may notice, is if Pierre turns out to have been right last election, they will exploit that against the LPC. The swing vote is still up for grabs (remember by popular vote LPC beat CPC 43% to 41%, certainly not a landslide even though many treated it like the LPC won by a huge majority).

I am hoping PM MC gets a game plan put together to handle the tough CPC questions (and bloc too) that is sure to come this fall (my personal advice to PM MC is don't listen to the old crowd, get some new STRATEGIC thinkers in there and draw a battle plan to survive the next 18-24 months).

The overlooked crowd by many here is the youth (like under 30 crowd), they are leaning more and more CPC. That sets things up for future disasters for the LPC if they don't shore up the defensive position now.

@Remius , The CPC is a VERY centrist party (maybe slightly, a hair to the right). Canada has leaned so far left in the last decade (we have have been a long left leaning nation anyways), we no longer recognize political center.

 

[ArmyRick]

In short, the LPC is on shaky ground, think political strategy (not ideological based) or risk being cut down hard.

 

[brihard]

The Liberal Party and Mark Carney deliberately embraced anti-american messaging as part of their broader strategy during the election.

They absolutely leaned into the economic threats being made to Canada. Why wouldn’t they? It was and is the single biggest issue we face.

Carney repeatedly described Trump as an economic and political threat to Canada,

He is

warning of potential tariffs,

He did

annexation,

He has kept talking about this

and undermined sovereignty.

He has

In his campaign launch, he argued Canada was “facing the most significant crisis of our lifetime” due to America’s aggressive actions.

We are, economically at least, due to our massively interdependent economy.

Several Liberal campaign materials emphasized Canada's need to decouple from overreliance on the US, boosting domestic manufacturing and forging ties with Europe and Asia.

That’s objectively true. It’s not ‘anti-American’ to say it, it’s just a frank assessment of our strategic vulnerability to overdependence on a single economic dance partner.

Liberals intentionally portrayed the US as a looming adversary, using this framing to:
1. Position Carney as a defender of Canadian sovereignty; and
2. Advance a Canada-first, us-vs-them narrative

Because the U.S. has explicitly positioned itself in an adversarial position and spoken of itself in an adversarial framing. ‘Adversarial’ doesn’t mean ‘military enemy’; it fits when the other guy has a very dumb grasp of economics as a zero-sum game purely built on trade balances. The U.S. is absolutely conducting themselves adversarially and Trump reinforces that every time he makes mouth noises about trade.

Rather than a side effect, this anti‑american posture was central to the Liberal campaign’s strategy to rally voters around Carney. You say people weren't really listening. I'd disagree and say people were. The anti-american messiah trick worked.

The platform was about protecting ourselves from American economic predation, which is what they’re doing. Trump has referred repeatedly to ‘trade war’, not just with Canada, but with many other countries. Canadians aren’t just seeing the U.S. - Canada relationship purely bilaterally, but in the larger context of everything Trump is doing in his relations with the rest of the world. The U.S. has essentially gone economically rogue, and yes Canada along with other countries has to defend itself against that, partly through defensive positioning, partly through fighting back. Will that affect messaging? Sure. But Carney has come at this from the standpoint of protecting the Canadian economy and Canadian jobs. That’s not simply jingoistic anti-Americanism.

 

[ArmyRick]

The problem with Trump's "51st state comments" is he has been saying them for 7-8 months now. Only a few Canadians are bothering to take it seriously anymore. Trump a little preoccupied with many things not just trade with us (Putin-Ukraine, Middle East, Trade with other nations, etc).

I agree with @Jarnhamar , the LPC exploited fear of Trump/new found Canadian instant patriotism to edge out a slight electoral victory.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Or maybe he's actually getting back to what the Liberal party was, pre-Trudeau, who took the party towards the NDP. Trudeau should've taken leadership of the NDP, that's where he really belongs.

I think that’s why a number of folks say he has way more of a Paul Martin feel compared to more recent Team Red coaches.

 

[Remius]

@Remius , The CPC is a VERY centrist party (maybe slightly, a hair to the right). Canada has leaned so far left in the last decade (we have have been a long left leaning nation anyways), we no longer recognize political center.

then they are doing a piss poor job of showing it.

PC’s have moved or are moving to the LPC (Carney at least) side. Even PC commentators are are moving that way.

First step is ditching Byrne and PP. find the right leader to get there.

 

[ArmyRick]

then they are doing a piss poor job of showing it.

PC’s have moved or are moving to the LPC (Carney at least) side. Even PC commentators are are moving that way.

First step is ditching Byrne and PP. find the right leader to get there.

PP fine, his leadership review is coming in January, we will decide if he stays or goes. PP did fine last election, he increased the CPC seat noticeably (Carney did better), he is was sitting when Trudeau tapped out (no matter how you size it, Trudeau would have been clobbered by Pierre).

Byrne has received a very quiet "contract not renewed" dismissal.

The more the LPC and the left in general screams we should get rid of Pierre, the more his base will be cemented.

 

[ArmyRick]

I think that’s why a number of folks say he has way more of a Paul Martin feel compared to more recent Team Red coaches.

Thats been my position on him too (and why he is growing on me). The LPC does much better with a balance of candidates.

 

[Remius]

PP fine, his leadership review is coming in January, we will decide if he stays or goes.

Yes. It will be up to the party for that.

PP did fine last election, he increased the CPC seat noticeably (Carney did better), he is was sitting when Trudeau tapped out (no matter how you size it, Trudeau would have been clobbered by Pierre).

He still blew a 50pt lead and couldn’t recover. And yes. Trudeau would indeed have been clobbered. Likely into oblivion.

Byrne has received a very quiet "contract not renewed" dismissal.

I have not heard that. Interesting. A good step if they have done that.

The more the LPC and the left in general screams we should get rid of Pierre, the more his base will be cemented.

It isn’t the base though, that he needs to win. And it’s voices on the right that are saying it…

 

[Jarnhamar]

The platform was about protecting ourselves from American economic predation, which is what they’re doing.

Ack everything you said. Trump made alot of threats and the LPC cleverly capitalized on it. We disagree on the tone of the messaging.

Carney talked about moving away from dependency on the US and increasing trade with Europe. Carney wasn't messaging "buy American if it makes sense", even though people should expect that.
Carney definitely wasn't messaging rework defense contracts so European contenders would be cut and American companies would be the only option.

The LPC signaled only Carney would stand up to Trump. Something repeated on this forum too IIRC. Meanwhile Carney seems be taking Poilievres conservative approach to dealing with Trump and not the elbows up nonsense.

 

[lenaitch]

Oh, I’m sure some would have, but it would have reflected a lack of critical thinking and financial literacy on their part, IMO.

If we want to establish a norm of proactive disclosure of all investments and finances to the voting public coming into an election, ok, sure- but do so well ahead of time and make it an expectation of all party leaders, to include all income, assets, and liabilities. Let’s also know who they might be indebted to. If it’s to be a standard expected of one because he comes from a finance background, expect it of all of them because it’s not like any of them come into this poor.

I wonder where Jagmeet Singh's money is parked. He wanted the same job.

This whole 'baring of one's financial soul' by all potential politicians is tiresome. it's right up there with the US practice of wanting their presidential candidates to disclose their tax returns.

 

[ArmyRick]

And it’s voices on the right that are saying it…

Who? Brian Liley? OK, but he is not really on the right. Who is saying this?

At our EDA, everyone still wants Pierre at the helm. The power players in the CPC still back him (Larry Brock, Melissa Lantsman, Michael Barret, Michael, Andrew Sheer, Tim Uppal, Leo Housakus, Jagraj Hallan to name a few). These are people that inflicted some nasty wounds on the LPC last round of parliament and especially in committees (where LPC relied on procedures to get out of jams more times than you could shake a finger).

t isn’t the base though, t

That base is pretty damn impressive. Uncle Mark has to accelerate his economic plans or he will lose those swing voters with the CPC not having to do much.

I have not heard that

My source tells me is a quiet parting of ways. She is gone and will not be back.

Uncle Mark won a victory on April 28th. Now his problem is, he has to deliver on his promises or he will fall flat on his face. I said it before and I'll say it again, there won't be a ten year grace period for him. All eyes are on him. That 43% of Canadians that voted him, are very much demanding results and quickly.

If PM MC succeeds only half of the promises he has made, it won't matter is Pierre wins his riding, stays on as CPC leader, etc because people will have restored faith in the LPC. Time will tell.

 

[Remius]

Who? Brian Liley? OK, but he is not really on the right. Who is saying this?

Wait. You think Brian Liley, co founder of Rebel News, is not on the right?

Are they saying g it outright? Not really. But a lot of conservative punditry is questioning his future and if he is that future. And it may seem weird but right now the LPC want PP to stay on. Just like the CPC wanted Trudeau to stay on. They think he’s likely their best tool by having him be the opposing leader. Polling certainly supports that.

At our EDA, everyone still wants Pierre at the helm. The power players in the CPC still back him (Larry Brock, Melissa Lantsman, Michael Barret, Michael, Andrew Sheer, Tim Uppal, Leo Housakus, Jagraj Hallan to name a few). These are people that inflicted some nasty wounds on the LPC last round of parliament and especially in committees (where LPC relied on procedures to get out of jams more times than you could shake a finger).

No doubt. At least publicly. It’s in their best interest to look united behind the leader for now. Like they did with Scheer and O’Toole.

That base is pretty damn impressive. Uncle Mark has to accelerate his economic plans or he will lose those swing voters with the CPC not having to do much.

The base is loud. And motivated. Or was motivated. I’m sure they still are but it isn’t as big as it pretends to be.

As for Carney accelerating his plans, I said as much as well. Results is what will convince people.

My source tells me is a quiet parting of ways. She is gone and will not be back.

I hope so.

Uncle Mark won a victory on April 28th. Now his problem is, he has to deliver on his promises or he will fall flat on his face. I said it before and I'll say it again, there won't be a ten year grace period for him. All eyes are on him. That 43% of Canadians that voted him, are very much demanding results and quickly.

I give him until xmas to see if results will show. Given the pace things are happening at I suspect we’ll see some interesting things happen.

If PM MC succeeds only half of the promises he has made, it won't matter is Pierre wins his riding, stays on as CPC leader, etc because people will have restored faith in the LPC. Time will tell.

Agreed. But some of his promises, though needed, will be unpopular in some quarters. People making the hard choices we need pay the price at the polls sometimes.

 

[ArmyRick]

Agreed. But some of his promises, though needed, will be unpopular in some quarters.

And here, we probably both see Mark carney as truly heading back to center. Which is a good thing. The radical left will seek life elsewhere (The NDP? The Greens?), the swing voters could very well lean Team Carney (Especially if he tackles a pipeline, ooops, I mean "Conventional energy national program" or some fancy words)

 

[RangerRay]

If the NDP play their cards right, they could make a roaring comeback. But they do face some major fiscal challenges after losing their party status.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... My source tells me is a quiet parting of ways. She is gone and will not be back ...

Juicy one - thanks for sharing. Although her fan base is more than zero ....

Michael Taube: Why Pierre Poilievre should not fire Jenni Byrne

Trump’s tariffs single-handedly changed the course of the Canadian election, Byrne and Conservatives did their best to adapt

nationalpost.com

... (also archive here), that could help, but only if PP doesn't go back to biz as usual next round. Yeah, he lead to the victory of a number of battles, but let's be frank: he didn't win the war. It'll be interesting to watch ...

If the NDP play their cards right, they could make a roaring comeback. But they do face some major fiscal challenges after losing their party status.

As well as organizational/doctrinal issues to sort out after their hard swing to the non-working-class far left.

 

[YZT580]

Yes. It will be up to the party for that.

He still blew a 50pt lead and couldn’t recover. And yes. Trudeau would indeed have been clobbered. Likely into oblivion.

I have not heard that. Interesting. A good step if they have done that.

It isn’t the base though, that he needs to win. And it’s voices on the right that are saying it…

hard to overcome having the premier of the largest province, a member of your party at that, backing the banker because he was the best person? to go against Trump. That wasn't Pierre it was all Doug Ford and Ford country carries a lot of weight in Ontario

 

[RangerRay]

As well as organizational/doctrinal issues to sort out after their hard swing to the non-working-class far left.

Except I don’t think it was a case of the NDP being too left/woke/whatever. I think it was the Poilievre/Trump combo that scared all those Dippers temporarily to the Liberals, as well as a not insubstantial number of working-class voters voting Tory.

If we didn’t have the Poilievre/Trump combo, I think the NDP would have retained a lot more of their urban strongholds.

And no, I’m not saying Poilievre = Trump. But a lot of those Dippers who ran to the Liberals do.

 

[brihard]

hard to overcome having the premier of the largest province, a member of your party at that, backing the banker because he was the best person? to go against Trump. That wasn't Pierre it was all Doug Ford and Ford country carries a lot of weight in Ontario

The CPC did considerably better in Ontario than they did in 2021, and the LPC did somewhat worse. The facts don’t appear to support your laying that blame for Poilievre’s defeat at the feet of premier Ford. While that may have been a headwind they had to fly into, there’s much more to the CPC loss than the beef between the Ford and Poilievre camps.

 

[YZT580]

The CPC did considerably better in Ontario than they did in 2021, and the LPC did somewhat worse. The facts don’t appear to support your laying that blame for Poilievre’s defeat at the feet of premier Ford. While that may have been a headwind they had to fly into, there’s much more to the CPC loss than the beef between the Ford and Poilievre camps.

of course, but it certainly didn't help. The stories out of CBC regarding biased and inventive reporting didn't help either.