Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[brihard]

According to Poilievre the Prime Minister promised a good deal by July 21st and to stop the tariffs. He traveled to the US and tariffs have doubled and tripled in some cases.

He met with the Chinese and they increased tariffs on canola, seafood, and pork.

He met with the Indians and they increased tariffs on peas.


We did get a sweet raise, though it's fair to say Trump has some DNA on that.

There will not be a tariff free deal. CUSMA will probably not survive.

I took a day off work to attend a conference on national security acouple weeks ago, academic interest on my part. Good blend of academics, government and business types. Among the subjects was economic security and sovereignty. Chatham house rules,so I cannot attribute or quote, but a well connected international trade type spoke about their engagement with colleagues in the U.S. The consistent message coming back from US international trade types is that, like it or not, and regardless of the economic incoherence of it, the Trump administration are true believers in mercantilist approaches to tariffs, and what anyone else thinks or wants doesn’t matter. Basically it’s gonna stay super transactional, and there isn’t a broad deal to be had.

At this point the vital ground has to shift to sustaining and prolonging CUSMA to the extent possible in order to protect the still considerable advantages we have, and hope for some luck in the midterms. And diversify as aggressively as possible into other markets and trading relationships. We’ll unavoidably remain joined at the hip economically, but we can reduce the dependence to the extent feasible.

 

[Altair]

There will not be a tariff free deal. CUSMA will probably not survive.

Congress votes to eliminate it?

 

[brihard]

Congress votes to eliminate it?

Do you trust them not to, especially if he delivers on the promised $2000 tariff checks to individual Americans to purchase consent for garbage trade policy?

EDIT TO ADD: Or convinces Americans that blocking his tariff and trade policies prevents it.

 

[daftandbarmy]

There will not be a tariff free deal. CUSMA will probably not survive.

I took a day off work to attend a conference on national security acouple weeks ago, academic interest on my part. Good blend of academics, government and business types. Among the subjects was economic security and sovereignty. Chatham house rules,so I cannot attribute or quote, but a well connected international trade type spoke about their engagement with colleagues in the U.S. The consistent message coming back from US international trade types is that, like it or not, and regardless of the economic incoherence of it, the Trump administration are true believers in mercantilist approaches to tariffs, and what anyone else thinks or wants doesn’t matter. Basically it’s gonna stay super transactional, and there isn’t a broad deal to be had.

At this point the vital ground has to shift to sustaining and prolonging CUSMA to the extent possible in order to protect the still considerable advantages we have, and hope for some luck in the midterms. And diversify as aggressively as possible into other markets and trading relationships. We’ll unavoidably remain joined at the hip economically, but we can reduce the dependence to the extent feasible.

And we'll have to renew our entrepreneurial, take no prisoners, tough competitor, hard bargaining skills...

... oh wait, what's this....

Canadian Innovation Ecosystems - “Where’s the beef?”

The Canadian Innovation Ecosystem has the raw talent. What we lack is a system that truly trusts builders and generates consistent results

ianpaulgraham.com

 

[Altair]

Do you trust them not to, especially if he delivers on the promised $2000 tariff checks to individual Americans to purchase consent for garbage trade policy?

I've heard of Americans betting 2000 dollars that this will never happen.

If they win their bet, they get a payout larger than 2000 dollars.

If they lose, the government gives them the 2000 dollars they bet back.

Amusing.

Anyways, 250m adult Americans getting 2000 each is around half a trillion dollars. Isn't that every penny of tariff dollars collected?

Edit to add https://finance.yahoo.com/

Trumps tariffs have brought in 200b so far. Assuming a full year brings in even double that's still less than 500b.

 

[Altair]

(What tangible progress was made towards the elimination of interprovincial trade barriers, anyway?)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-interprovincial-trade-barrier-dropped-9.6984871

An agreement between all Canadian provinces, territories, and the federal government signed today will drop interprovincial trade barriers on many goods except food and alcohol starting in December. It comes as part of an effort to support businesses with more trade opportunities in light of U.S. tariffs

More from PM does nothing, appearantly.

 

[RangerRay]

Surprise surprise. Did Mark get her a Texas mickey of whiskey?

I still contend she’s angling for a senate appointment…

On one side you have the Americans, threatening Canada, Canadian jobs. How long before Trump wants those Lockheed Martin jobs and contracts back in the USA?

On the other, you have Sweden, offering technology transfers and jobs here in Canada. More a strategic partnership than a plane sale.

Sweden saw a opening and went for it. Good for them. Maybe Canada shouldn't be taken for granted.

The F35 is the only operational, in-service western 5th generation fighter available. I get the grief over out American cousins losing their collective minds, but it makes no sense to me to ditch our potential future orders of a 5th generation fighter in favour of an, at best, 4.5th generation fighter. All this foot-dragging and teasing prolongs an already long-delayed acquisition of desperately needed modern fighters when there is no other true alternative on the market.

 

[Altair]

The F35 is the only operational, in-service western 5th generation fighter available. I get the grief over out American cousins losing their collective minds, but it makes no sense to me to ditch our potential future orders of a 5th generation fighter in favour of an, at best, 4.5th generation fighter. All this foot-dragging and teasing prolongs an already long-delayed acquisition of desperately needed modern fighters when there is no other true alternative on the market.

France has the Rafale.

Germany, Italy and the UK have the Eurofighter and F35.

Spain and Portugal cancelled the F35.

All NATO countries.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Do you trust them not to, especially if he delivers on the promised $2000 tariff checks to individual Americans to purchase consent for garbage trade policy?

EDIT TO ADD: Or convinces Americans that blocking his tariff and trade policies prevents it.

Roll of the dice at best.

 

[RangerRay]

France has the Rafale.

An old design that is 4.5 gen old at best.

Germany, Italy and the UK have the Eurofighter and F35.

AFAIK, they were involved in both programs on the ground floor, so that makes sense for them.

Spain and Portugal cancelled the F35.

And it was a dumb decision. I don’t think we should be looking at basket cases like them for inspiration.

All NATO countries.

NATO also has Greece, Turkey and Hungary. Should we do what they do?

If one of our European or Asian allies had an operational, proven 5th generation fighter in production, I’d say we should explore those options. But ditching a new proven fighter for an older design that isn’t as advanced doesn’t sound like a good idea to me.

 

[Altair]

An old design that is 4.5 gen old at best.



AFAIK, they were involved in both programs on the ground floor, so that makes sense for them.



And it was a dumb decision. I don’t think we should be looking at basket cases like them for inspiration.



NATO also has Greece, Turkey and Hungary. Should we do what they do?

If one of our European or Asian allies had an operational, proven 5th generation fighter in production, I’d say we should explore those options. But ditching a new proven fighter for an older design that isn’t as advanced doesn’t sound like a good idea to me.

If a country decides to treat Canada with respect, as a partner, looking to collaborate on future projects while valuing what we can bring to the table I would pick them.

Especially when the competition is actively trying to damage our economy, threatening our jobs, casually muses about annexing us, talks about us as if we are garbage to them. Even if they make better kit, I wouldn't want to deal with them.

We are locked into 16 jets. Honour it. But after that, everything should be on the table.

 

[RangerRay]

If a country decides to treat Canada with respect, as a partner, looking to collaborate on future projects while valuing what we can bring to the table I would pick them.

Especially when the competition is actively trying to damage our economy, threatening our jobs, casually muses about annexing us, talks about us as if we are garbage to them. Even if they make better kit, I wouldn't want to deal with them.

We are locked into 16 jets. Honour it. But after that, everything should be on the table.

I would agree if there were good alternatives available. Unfortunately, there aren’t.

We definitely should be getting in on Euro, Korean or Japanese 6th generation programs.

 

[Jarnhamar]

More from PM does nothing, appearantly.

Wasn't BC and Premier David Eby the driving force behind this?

 

[Altair]

I would agree if there were good alternatives available. Unfortunately, there aren’t.

We definitely should be getting in on Euro, Korean or Japanese 6th generation programs.

A great way to do that would be to partner with their current program. We also need to prove to the Europeans that we won't just ditch them when/if the Americans move on from MAGA.

Partnering with SAAB is a great way to have some skin in the game.

 

[Jarnhamar]

And diversify as aggressively as possible into other markets and trading relationships. We’ll unavoidably remain joined at the hip economically, but we can reduce the dependence to the extent feasible.

This seems like something most people agree with. Diversify where it makes sense, but not blind ourselves from spite.

 

[Altair]

Wasn't BC and Premier David Eby the driving force behind this?

Still doesn't happen without Carney passing Bill C-5.

 

[Jarnhamar]

We are locked into 16 jets. Honour it. But after that, everything should be on the tatable.

We signed on for 88. We should honour that. Then if we want to cozy up to Sweden we can buy their 30 or 40 year old fighters and land them on highways and stuff.