daftandbarmy
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Meanwhile, minority governments are everywhere... we'd better get used to them:
For the past quarter-century, federal elections in Canada have more often resulted in minority governments than majorities. Far from being an electoral anomaly, this trend has led to a lasting transformation of the country’s partisan politics. However, our parties and institutions continue to function as if majority governments remain the order of the day.
The 2025 federal campaign at first seemed like a perfect storm of factors for the creation of a majority government. The contest came down to which of the two major parties, the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) or the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), voters found most capable of responding to the crises of the moment. Together, the two parties received a combined 85 per cent of the popular vote, a sum not seen since Diefenbaker’s landslide in 1958.
And yet, Canadians woke up to a third consecutive Liberal minority government the day after the April 28 election. This result stood in sharp contrast to the seat projections of popular sites like Canada 338 or CBC/Radio-Canada’s Poll Tracker, which showed the Liberals comfortably in majority territory.
This outcome, far from being surprising, is rather part of a trend that began at the turn of the millennium. Between 1945 and 1997, two-thirds of elections resulted in majority governments. Since 2000, the proportion has reversed: two-thirds of federal elections now result in minority governments.
policyoptions.irpp.org
Adapting to minority governments: Canada’s new normal
Stability will not come from increasingly unlikely majorities, but from institutions capable of functioning with fragmented power.For the past quarter-century, federal elections in Canada have more often resulted in minority governments than majorities. Far from being an electoral anomaly, this trend has led to a lasting transformation of the country’s partisan politics. However, our parties and institutions continue to function as if majority governments remain the order of the day.
The 2025 federal campaign at first seemed like a perfect storm of factors for the creation of a majority government. The contest came down to which of the two major parties, the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) or the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), voters found most capable of responding to the crises of the moment. Together, the two parties received a combined 85 per cent of the popular vote, a sum not seen since Diefenbaker’s landslide in 1958.
And yet, Canadians woke up to a third consecutive Liberal minority government the day after the April 28 election. This result stood in sharp contrast to the seat projections of popular sites like Canada 338 or CBC/Radio-Canada’s Poll Tracker, which showed the Liberals comfortably in majority territory.
This outcome, far from being surprising, is rather part of a trend that began at the turn of the millennium. Between 1945 and 1997, two-thirds of elections resulted in majority governments. Since 2000, the proportion has reversed: two-thirds of federal elections now result in minority governments.
Increasingly fragile majorities
Moreover, the majority governments formed since the early 2000s are clearly more fragile in their parliamentary position. From 1945 to 1997, majority governments had, on average, about 12 per cent more seats than the threshold required for a majority in the House of Commons. Since 2000, majority governments have averaged only about five per cent above this threshold.
Minority governments in Canada: A changing landscape
Explore the evolution of minority governments in Canada and their impact on partisan politics over the last twenty-five years.
policyoptions.irpp.org
